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Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Page 4 Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Constituency Poll Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 10 Dec 2013 Table 1 Q1. On a scale of 0-10, how likely do you think you will be to vote in the next general election in May 2015, where 10 is definitely will vote and 0 is definitely won't vote? Base : All Respondents Total Gender Age 2010 Vote Voting Intention Ward Group Bognor Aldwick & Central & Felpham & Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ CON LAB LD OTHER CON LAB UKIP OTHER Undecided Pagham North Middleton Littlehampton Unweighted Total 508 202 306 63 123 322 172 56 54 41 116 53 86 43 125 145 103 130 130 Weighted Total 508 241 267 118 160 230 150 54 50 38 105 57 75 46 125 136 124 108 140 10 267 118 150 34 79 154 109 34 35 28 68 34 56 27 62 81 58 59 69 52.7% 49.0% 56.0% 28.5% 49.7% 67.1% 72.9% 63.1% 69.2% 74.5% 65.1% 58.9% 73.8% 58.6% 49.4% 59.6% 46.7% 54.8% 49.6% 9 16 6 10 - 3 12 3 4 3 1 2 4 1 1 7 4 2 5 6 3.1% 2.6% 3.6% - 2.2% 5.4% 2.1% 8.1% 5.3% 1.5% 2.3% 6.6% 0.8% 2.5% 5.5% 2.7% 1.2% 4.3% 4.3% 8 51 25 26 12 22 17 18 8 4 3 12 7 6 7 13 10 22 8 11 10.0% 10.3% 9.6% 9.9% 13.9% 7.2% 11.8% 14.1% 8.3% 6.7% 11.8% 12.2% 7.5% 14.3% 10.7% 7.2% 17.6% 7.8% 7.5% 7 13 7 6 10 - 3 4 2 - 1 5 2 2 - 4 2 5 3 3 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 8.8% - 1.1% 2.6% 3.9% - 1.7% 4.4% 3.7% 2.5% - 3.6% 1.5% 3.9% 2.8% 2.2% 6 11 7 4 5 3 3 3 - 2 1 3 - 2 2 4 4 2 3 3 2.1% 3.1% 1.3% 4.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.9% - 4.6% 1.8% 3.2% - 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 5 52 31 21 14 19 18 8 2 3 1 10 7 7 8 19 10 14 15 12 10.2% 12.7% 7.9% 12.2% 11.9% 7.9% 5.6% 3.9% 6.4% 2.5% 9.8% 11.5% 9.6% 17.3% 15.1% 7.7% 11.5% 14.1% 8.4% 4 5 2 3 2 2 1 1 - - - 2 - 1 - 2 1 2 - 2 1.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% - - - 2.1% - 0.8% - 1.6% 0.8% 1.6% - 1.2% 3 10 5 4 3 2 5 3 - 1 2 1 - 1 2 6 3 - 3 3 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% - 1.0% 4.9% 1.2% - 0.8% 4.0% 4.7% 2.6% - 2.7% 2.3% 2 9 4 5 2 6 1 - 2 3 - - 4 - - 5 2 3 - 5 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 3.8% 0.6% - 4.6% 5.2% - - 7.2% - - 3.9% 1.1% 2.2% - 3.4% 1 5 1 4 2 2 1 - 1 - - - - 1 - 3 1 2 - 2 1.0% 0.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% - 2.3% - - - - 1.2% - 2.6% 0.8% 1.6% - 1.5% 0 70 35 34 34 21 15 1 - - 2 - - - - - 18 15 12 24 13.7% 14.7% 12.9% 28.3% 13.2% 6.6% 0.8% - - 6.4% - - - - - 13.2% 12.3% 11.2% 17.4% SIGMA 508 241 267 118 160 230 150 54 50 38 105 57 75 46 125 136 124 108 140 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Prepared by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown Page 4 Page 5 Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Constituency Poll Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 10 Dec 2013 Table 2 Q2. Voting Intention Tables - Normal Weighted Table Q2. If that general election were to be held tomorrow, which party do you think you would be most likely to vote for in your Bognor Regis & Littlehampton constituency? Base : Respondents would vote in General Election Total Gender Age 2010 Vote Voting Intention Ward Group Bognor Aldwick & Central & Felpham & Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ CON LAB LD OTHER CON LAB UKIP OTHER Undecided Pagham North Middleton Littlehampton Unweighted Total 454 180 274 45 108 301 171 56 54 39 116 53 86 43 125 130 92 120 112 Weighted Total 438 205 233 85 139 215 149 54 50 36 105 57 75 46 125 118 109 96 115 Labour 57 35 23 20 10 27 1 34 5 - - 57 - - - 15 17 7 18 13.1% 16.8% 9.8% 23.7% 7.5% 12.5% 0.5% 63.7% 9.3% - - 100.0% - - - 13.0% 15.8% 7.5% 15.2% Conservative 105 48 57 17 29 59 79 1 3 2 105 - - - - 28 25 28 24 24.0% 23.2% 24.7% 19.5% 21.0% 27.7% 53.3% 2.5% 6.7% 4.4% 100.0% - - - - 23.7% 22.8% 29.1% 21.2% Liberal Democrat 33 13 20 8 12 13 2 2 19 1 - - - 33 - 7 9 9 9 7.6% 6.3% 8.7% 9.8% 8.7% 6.0% 1.6% 3.8% 37.6% 3.4% - - - 71.7% - 5.8% 8.0% 8.9% 7.9% UKIP 75 43 32 2 26 47 24 6 7 24 - - 75 - - 21 17 20 18 17.2% 21.2% 13.7% 2.2% 19.1% 21.9% 16.4% 10.7% 14.0% 67.6% - - 100.0% - - 17.6% 15.7% 20.5% 15.5% Another Party (Net) 13 10 3 4 5 4 4 1 4 3 - - - 13 - 5 4 3 2 3.0% 4.7% 1.5% 4.7% 3.5% 2.0% 2.7% 2.8% 8.5% 7.8% - - - 28.3% - 4.2% 3.7% 2.7% 1.4% BNP 2 2 - 2 - - - - - 2 - - - 2 - - - 2 - 0.4% 0.9% - 2.2% - - - - - 5.2% - - - 4.0% - - - 1.9% - Green 7 4 3 2 1 3 - 1 4 1 - - - 7 - 3 2 - 2 1.5% 1.8% 1.2% 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% - 1.5% 8.5% 2.6% - - - 14.3% - 2.4% 2.0% - 1.4% Party not listed 5 4 1 - 3 1 4 1 - - - - - 5 - 2 2 1 - 1.1% 2.0% 0.2% - 2.4% 0.6% 2.7% 1.3% - - - - - 10.0% - 1.7% 1.8% 0.7% - Undecided 125 45 80 31 44 50 37 9 12 6 - - - - 125 33 31 25 35 28.5% 21.9% 34.3% 36.1% 31.8% 23.3% 24.6% 16.5% 24.0% 16.8% - - - - 100.0% 28.3% 28.5% 26.1% 30.6% Refused 29 12 17 4 12 14 1 - - - - - - - - 9 6 5 9 6.7% 6.0% 7.3% 4.2% 8.4% 6.6% 0.9% - - - - - - - - 7.5% 5.4% 5.3% 8.2% SIGMA 438 205 233 85 139 215 149 54 50 36 105 57 75 46 125 118 109 96 115 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Prepared by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown Page 5 Page 6 Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Constituency Poll Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 10 Dec 2013 Table 3 Q2. Voting Intention Tables - Normal Weighted Table and Likelihood Weighting Q2. If that general election were to be held tomorrow, which party do you think you would be most likely to vote for in your Bognor Regis & Littlehampton constituency? Base : Respondents would vote in General Election Total Gender Age 2010 Vote Voting Intention Ward Group Bognor Aldwick & Central & Felpham & Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ CON LAB LD OTHER CON LAB UKIP OTHER Undecided Pagham North Middleton Littlehampton Unweighted Total 454 180 274 45 108 301 171 56 54 39 116 53 86 43 125 130 92 120 112 Weighted Total 454 209 245 78 140 237 166 58 54 40 113 59 83 48 119 126 110 101 117 Labour 59 35 24 21 8 31 1 37 6 - - 59 - - - 18 17 8 16 13.0% 16.9% 9.7% 26.7% 5.6% 12.9% 0.6% 64.8% 10.3% - - 100.0% - - - 14.1% 15.8% 7.7% 13.8% Conservative 113 49 64 16 30 66 89 2 3 2 113 - - - - 30 27 30 27 24.9% 23.2% 26.3% 21.2% 21.7% 28.0% 53.6% 2.9% 6.3% 4.2% 100.0% - - - - 23.6% 24.4% 29.5% 22.7% Liberal Democrat 34 12 22 8 12 14 3 2 21 2 - - - 34 - 7 10 8 10 7.5% 5.7% 9.1% 10.7% 8.4% 6.0% 1.8% 4.3% 38.1% 3.7% - - - 71.8% - 5.2% 9.2% 8.1% 8.1% UKIP 83 47 35 2 29 52 27 7 8 28 - - 83 - - 24 19 21 19 18.2% 22.5% 14.5% 2.1% 20.9% 21.9% 16.2% 11.4% 15.3% 70.8% - - 100.0% - - 18.9% 16.9% 21.1% 16.2% Another Party (Net) 13 10 4 3 5 5 4 2 5 2 - - - 13 - 6 5 2 2 3.0% 4.7% 1.5% 4.2% 3.9% 2.0% 2.5% 3.2% 9.7% 4.5% - - - 28.2% - 4.7% 4.1% 1.5% 1.3% BNP 1 1 - 1 - - - - - 1 - - - 1 - - - 1 - 0.2% 0.3% - 0.9% - - - - - 1.7% - - - 1.4% - - - 0.7% - Green 8 5 3 3 2 3 - 1 5 1 - - - 8 - 4 3 - 2 1.7% 2.2% 1.3% 3.3% 1.2% 1.4% - 1.7% 9.7% 2.8% - - - 16.1% - 2.8% 2.4% - 1.3% Party not listed 5 5 1 - 4 1 4 1 - - - - - 5 - 2 2 1 - 1.1% 2.2% 0.2% - 2.6% 0.6% 2.5% 1.5% - - - - - 10.6% - 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% - Undecided 119 42 77 23 43 52 41 8 11 7 - - - - 119 33 26 26 33 26.2% 20.1% 31.4% 30.2% 30.8% 22.1% 24.4% 13.5% 20.4% 16.8% - - - - 100.0% 26.2% 24.0% 26.0% 28.4% Refused 33 14 18 4 12 16 2 - - - - - - - - 9 6 6 11 7.2% 6.8% 7.5% 5.0% 8.8% 7.0% 1.0% - - - - - - - - 7.4% 5.6% 6.2% 9.4% SIGMA 454 209 245 78 140 237 166 58 54 40 113 59 83 48 119 126 110 101 117 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Prepared by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown Page 6 Page 7 Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Constituency Poll Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 10 Dec 2013 Table 4 Q2.
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