III. Phases of Crisis and Conflict the Study Postulates That There Are Three

III. Phases of Crisis and Conﬂ ict

The study postulates that there are three perspectives which need to be adopted as a preliminary step towards the identiﬁ cation of possible policy alternatives. First, there is the objective assessment of the political circumstances characterising each of the four phases of the conﬂ ict, including factors which aggravated developments and triggered escalation. Such an assessment also considers the relative position of the parties, the factual situation on the ground, and the wider political circumstances, also including the attitude of outside actors.

Second, the perceptions of this reality by the local protagonists of the confl ict need to be identifi ed. This includes their subjective identifi cation of their policy interests and the resulting political strategy they may have adopted. The level of commitment to this strategy and to the interests served by it also needs to be considered.

On the basis of the factual analysis and of the analysis of the perceptions of local actors, it is then possible to develop approaches to dispute settlement which might have engaged the views of the parties and their conduct constructively. These approaches concern:

• Process (i.e. the modalities of international involvement)

• Substance (i.e. the actual solutions one might work towards)

• Matters of persuasion (i.e. the instruments one might bring to bear in order to obtain cooperation from the parties, including acceptance of process and substance)

Provided policy alternatives emerge which might have had an effect on the attitude of the parties, the failure to consider or adopt them will then be addressed.

24 A. Phase 1: Unstable Peace to Emerging Crisis (1987–1992)

This phase stretches from the initial manifestation of Serb nationalism focused on Kosovo to the acceptance of the dissolution of the SFRY by the EC and its members at the end of 1991.

Phase 1: Unstable Peace to Emerging Crisis (1987-1992)

War War in Croatia

7-day war in Slovenia

Constitution of Outbreak of Kacanik / new Serbian constitution Violence Kosovar parliament declares Republic Serbian / Montenegrin elections, Albanian Demonstrations erupt in violence boycott Armed conflicts in Plitrice / Kraijna 14th Congress League Communists begins Serbian parliament assumes authoritiy of Kosovar 600 anniversary of Kosovo Polje battle parliament Elections in High Tension Abolition of autonomy, police suppression Macedonia of protests, trials and BiH / declarations of Referendum on Miners/students protests in Kosovo; Elections in independence Serbian demonstration in Belgrade Slovenia sovereignity

Sacking of Serbian embargo Unstable Peace/ Kosovar against Slovenia “Party Peaceful Leadership” Resistance Bloodless coups in Vojvodina and Durable Peace Montenegro68

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Kosovo Neighbourhood/Yugoslavia

1. Background Factors and Root Causes The fi rst phase is set against the background of the struggle relating to the character of post-Tito Yugoslavia, which emerged even before the termination of the Cold War. As noted above, the edifi ce of an enforced multi-ethnic society, to which a signifi cant number of members of the communist elite were wedded, came under threat when liberalisation provided not only for hesitant democratic freedoms but also made possible a direct assault on the hitherto sacred doctrine of brotherhood and unity. At the 8th Session of the Serbia League of Communists’ Central Committee in September 1997, this attack was launched by Slobodan Milosevic, on the basis of the purported plight of Serbs in Kosovo.8

8 Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (Penguin, London, 1992), p. 32.