Climate Change and Central Europe
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No. 02 ASPEN.REVIEW 2020 CENTRAL EUROPE COVER STORIES Edwin Bendyk, Do Thu Trang, Witold Gadomski, Anna Kárniková, Robert Schuster POLITICS Ivan Krastev ECONOMY Magdolna Csath CULTURE Małgorzata Fidelis INTERVIEW Misha Glenny 9 771805 679005 No. 02/2020 — Climate Change and Central Europe Central and Change Climate Climate Change and Central Europe – New Green Common Sense About Aspen Aspen Review Central Europe quarterly presents current issues to the public in the Aspenian way by adopting unusual approaches and unique viewpoints, by publishing analyses, interviews and commentaries by world-renowned professionals as well as Central European journalists and scholars. The Aspen Review is published by the Aspen Institute CE. Aspen Institute Central Europe is a partner of the global Aspen net- work and serves as an independent platform where political, business, and non-profit leaders, as well as personalities from art, media, sports and sci- ence, can interact. The Institute facilitates interdisciplinary, regional coop- eration, and supports young leaders in their development. The core of the Institute’s activities focuses on leadership seminars, expert meetings, and public conferences, all of which are held in a neutral manner to encourage open debate in three areas: — Leadership Program offers educational and networking projects for outstanding young Central European professionals. Aspen Young Leaders Program brings together emerging and experienced leaders for four days of workshops, debates, and networking activities. — Policy Program enables expert discussions that support strategic thinking and an interdisciplinary approach in topics such as digital agenda, cities’ development and creative placemaking, art & business, education, as well as transatlantic and Visegrad cooperation. — Public Program aspires to present challenging ideas at public events, such as the Aspen Annual Conference that convenes high-profile guests from all over the world to discuss current affairs, and via Aspen Review Central Europe. Climate Change and Central Europe No. 02 2020 ASPEN.REVIEW CONTENTS 04 FOREWORD Climate Concerns Do Not Wane Jiří Schneider 06 EDITORIAL 2019 Had a Woman’s Face Aleksander Kaczorowski 10 The Energy Sector between the Past and the Future Edwin Bendyk 18 New Green Common Sense Robert Schuster 25 Embracing the Change—Decarbonization Pathways for the Czech Republic Anna Kárníková 30 How to Survive the ‘Green Deal’? Witold Gadomski 38 AY L Is Environmental Awareness a ‘Rich People’s’ Thing? Do Thu Trang 42 INTERVIEW with Misha Glenny: The Mafia Has Integrated itself into the Licit World Aleksander Kaczorowski 50 COMMENT The Great Paradox of Covid-19 Ivan Krastev 56 Irony, Narration and Zeitgeist Wojciech Engelking 62 INTERVIEW with Adrian Zandberg: The Mentality from Margaret Thatcher’s Times still Dominates among the Leaders of Visegrad Jakub Majmurek 72 The Grand Gaming Table Alexander Dobroyer 82 Russia’s Economy in the 2020s: A Cheerless Future Vladislav Inozemtsev 94 The Future of EU Innovativeness and Competitiveness Magdolna Csath 101 A Rainy Night in Georgia Alexander Kaffka 108 Fantasy Island Benjamin Cunningham 114 ‘Translating’ Dissidentism Małgorzata Fidelis 121 The Light that Shines Jan Sowa ASPEN.REVIEW FOREWORD Climate Concerns Do Not Wane Dear Readers, One would expect that the current pandemic crisis and economic downturn would at least temporarily overshadow climate concerns and de- rail a drive toward new green deals in European and global politics. Accord- ing to an April 2020 poll by IPSOS, however, a majority of respondents do not see climate change as a lesser threat than a pandemic. More surprisingly, 80 percent of Chinese, Indian or Mexican respondents prefer a ‘green’ economic recovery compared to less than 60 percent of Britons or Germans. Hence climate as the theme of this issue remains definitely topical. We looked into the peripheral position of Central Europe in the last issue. It is common wisdom that small crises lead to centralization whereas staying at the periphery of a major crisis and disruption could be an advan- tage. This remains to be seen. As national responses to covid-19 differ in various European countries, the quest of the European Union to agree on ef- fective measures—that would strike a right balance between health, climate and the economy—seems to be more urgent than ever. A climate policy is mostly shaped by the energy policy. In his article, Edwin Bendyk claims that “this joint and passionate love for atomic energy in Central Europe does not mean that there is any joint energy policy of the Visegrad Four countries”. In fact, there is no ‘passionate love’ for atomic 04 Aspen.Review/ClimateConcerns energy, but a combination of pragmatism, caution about hastily introduced green schemes plus a path-dependency on nuclear power production. Witold Gadomski provides an analysis of why Poland’s energy policy—concerned mostly about its dependency on coal—considerably differs from the rest of the Visegrad countries. The palette of topical articles is completed by the views of Robert Schuster on the climate policies of the Central European states in the context of German and Austrian policies. It has already become a tradition to bring forward a thematic voice of a young leader, this time an opinion piece entitled “Is Environmental Aware- ness a ‘Rich People’s’ Thing?” by Do Thu Trang, a Czech-Vietnamese blogger who received the Aspen Central Europe Leadership Award in 2019. Aleksandr Kaczorowski’s interview with Misha Glenny, a renowned journalist and author of the celebrated McMafia, is a must-read not just because of the nexus between organized crime and the environment. As a segway to our next issue and a pretaste of Ivan Krastev’s upcoming book, we publish an excerpt about seven paradoxes of the covid-19 era. Stay healthy and in good spirits! JIŘÍ SCHNEIDER Executive Director, Aspen Institute CE 05 ASPEN.REVIEW 2019 Had a EDITORIAL Woman’s Face Greta Thunberg, Zuzana Čaputová, Olga Tokarczuk. It was because of them that last year had a woman’s face. Each of them in her own way became a symbol of hope for a better tomorrow—in the world, in Europe and in Poland. It is no accident that there is not a single man among these emblematic figures. “Person of the Year” by Time magazine is one of the most important media awards in the modern world. A glance at the list of nominees in 2019 was enough to notice that something was wrong with this world. Among the ten contenders for the honorable title there were five men, including as many as three connected with the investigation into the impeachment of US President Donald Trump: himself, the former New York Mayor Rudy Guliani and the anonymous whistleblower who reported a suspicious conversation between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The other two candidates—the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg—could also be the main protagonists of a po- litical thriller. None of the five men, with one exception, stood out as positive. The exception is the man who was forced to hide his identity because he dared to reveal the dirty deeds of the American President. The More Progressive Half of Humanity How different are the female candidates for the prestigious weekly award in comparison with the male ones. They include the environmental activist Gre- ta Thunberg, the New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (for her stance after the Christchurch mosques in March 2019), the American footballer and LGBT rights activist Megan Rapinoe, and the House of Representatives speak- er Nancy Pelosi, involved in Trump’s impeachment. Four women who fight for climate protection, social peace, human rights, rule of law and democracy. It came as no surprise to anyone, except the right-wing misogynists, that the less than 17-year-old Greta Thunberg finally appeared on the cover. It was because of her that the threat of a global climate disaster became the most discussed topic of the past year, influencing international politics and decisions made in dozens of countries of the world and the European Union. 06 Aspen.Review/WomansFace No less important is the example that the young Swedish woman gave to millions of girls around the world. “The Strength of Youth” from the Time cover can be understood literally—women are today the more progressive half of humanity. They are also generally better educated and aware of the need for change. It is they who demand it most loudly and point in the desired direction. It is no coincidence that, according to Forbes, countries ruled by women—from Taiwan, through Germany, Denmark and Iceland, to New Zealand—are best placed to deal with the covid-19 pandemic. The Unfinished Revolution If something does come as a surprise, it is only the astonishment aroused by the increasing presence of women in male-dominated spheres of life, such as new technologies, politics or... literature. After all, the feminist revolution has lasted for over 100 years. The concept of feminism itself was created in the 1880s in France, the homeland of human and civil rights. Initially, it meant supporters (both female and male) of solving the so-called woman issue. This euphemism concealed one of the greatest para- doxes of the Enlightenment and the bourgeois order that was its offspring. In this order, founded on economic and political freedom symbolized by private property and electoral rights, only men had civil and property rights one hun- dred years after the Great French Revolution. The situation was similar in all European countries and in the USA. The woman issue, as well as the Jewish question and the attitude to- wards homosexuals, were symptoms of the unfinished bourgeois revolution, which brought plutocracy and the wealthy bourgeoisie to power in place of the demolished feudal order and aristocratic rule. The new bourgeois social hierarchy “cast the woman as a parasitic slave who does not earn and should not earn money”, wrote the German literary scholar Hans Mayer.