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HUMAN FREEDOM

VOICES OF THE LEADERS TOMORROW VOICES AND CHOICE IN THE LIGHT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE About the Nuremberg Institute for About the St. Gallen Symposium Market Decisions (NIM)

The Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (for- The St. Gallen Symposium is the world’s leading ini- merly “GfK Verein”) is a non-profit and interdisciplinary tiative for intergenerational debates on economic, research institute dedicated to the systematic investi- political, and social developments. We bring together IMPRINT gation of consumer and market decisions. The institute key decision makers, thought leaders, and brilliant is also the founder and anchor shareholder of GfK SE. young minds to address current challenges and op- portunities on transforming ideas into action. Since At the interface between science and practice, the NIM 1969, we have fostered healthy debates and created explores how market decisions are changing due to an outstanding community for exchange. We are a trends, new technologies, and new sources of informa- student-run initiative combining excellence with inno- tion. Our goal is to deepen the understanding of con- vation: A unique and extraordinary experience. sumer decisions as well as those of marketing execu- tives, and to use this knowledge to help improve the The Leaders of Tomorrow are a carefully selected, quality of market decisions. global community of the most promising young tal- ent. Each year, 200 academics, politicians, entrepre- The NIM fosters the dialogue and cooperation with neurs and professionals around 30 years or younger experts from science and practice, with innovators are invited to challenge, debate, and inspire at the and startups who are particularly interested in market symposium. By questioning the status quo and repre- decisions and market insights. Research results are senting the voices of the next generation, the Leaders shared and discussed by the NIM through publications, of Tomorrow are at the very heart of the St. Gallen conferences and lectures with its members, and the Symposium, making the conference a unique experi- professional public. ence. Leaders of Tomorrow qualify either through our global essay competition aimed at graduate students, or they attend based on their professional or academic merit through a strict hand-selection process. After the symposium, they join our Leaders of Tomorrow Alumni Community counting over 2,000 members worldwide.

Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions St. Gallen Symposium Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V. P.O. Box 1045 Founder and Anchor Shareholder of GfK SE 9001 St. Gallen, Steinstraße 21, 90419 Nuremberg, Germany Tel.: +41 71 22720-20 Tel.: +49 911 95151-983 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] http://www.symposium.org http://www.nim.org

© 2020 by Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior permission of the copyright holders. Please cite this publication as: Gaspar, C., Dieckmann, A., Neus, A. (2020): Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow: Human freedom and choice in the light of technological change. Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium | Cover picture: © Getty Images Topic Page

Introduction______2

Overview: Participant statistics______3 CONTENT Key insights______4

Perspectives on individual freedom ______6

Inherited constraints: Freedom as an intergenerational problem______8

Freedom in the digital sphere: Trade-offs between restrictions and preservation______10

Technology and human agency: Decisions between convenience and control______17

Looking ahead: Technological change and the future of freedom ______21

Concluding remarks______26

References______27

Sample and survey methodology: Recruitment of the Leaders of Tomorrow______28 2 HUMAN FREEDOM AND CHOICE IN THE LIGHT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE INTRODUCTION

When the Iron Curtain fell, the global rise of freedom In the face of such disquieting developments around and democracy seemed unstoppable, like a natural the globe, it is high time to revisit the concept of free- course in human development. Today, thirty years dom and let the younger generation have their say on later, things look different. The think tank Freedom what freedom means to them, and what their worries House has, for 14 years in a row, recorded an alarming and hopes are, with a particular focus on freedom and decline in global freedom, highlighting developments rapid technological change. The study gives voice to a from the USA, to (not only Eastern) Europe, and all the selected group of future top talent: The “Leaders of way to India (Freedom House, 2020). Tomorrow” from the network of the St. Gallen Sympo- sium. Nearly 900 Leaders of Tomorrow from all over At the same time, freedom in the digital sphere – the world accepted the invitation to share their opin- a central pillar of the cyber-utopianism embraced al- ions about freedom and especially about the impact of ready by the early computer pioneers (Turner, 2008) new technologies on human freedom. – is being challenged. Utopian views of the Internet survived the dot-com bubble and even experienced a Due to unforeseen circumstances, the focus of the resurgence with Web 2.0, which offered unprecedent- present report became even more topical due to the ed transparency, usability and accessibility resulting in COVID-19 crisis that has affected human societies all greater opportunities for everybody to get involved around the world. Almost everywhere, we witness re- (as highlighted by, e.g., Rushkoff, 2002). However, strictions of individual freedom to reduce the number skeptical views also grew louder, pointing out the of infections and heated discussions about how far “dark side of Internet freedom” (Morozov, 2011) and democratic governments should be allowed to go in its vulnerability to authoritarian abuse. And indeed, their fight against the virus. taking advantage of liberty and openness of the Internet, fake news, , and political manipu- As the Leaders of Tomorrow represent top talent of lation have caused damage around the globe, with the the younger generation, who will certainly shape fu- Cambridge Analytica scandal (Graham-Harrison & Cad- ture economic developments and societies around the walladr, 2018) marking just one low point in this trou- globe, the findings of this report will help the econom- blesome development. Consequently, calls for greater ic and political leaders of today to better understand regulation can even be heard from Big Tech’s executive the demands, opportunities and challenges in a rapidly levels (Liao, 2019). changing world.

Claudia Gaspar and Dr. Anja Dieckmann, Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions 3 OVERVIEW: SAMPLE AND SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Online survey conducted in February 2020 with 898 Leaders of Tomorrow …

… personally invited through the network of the … both students and (young) professionals St. Gallen Symposium

Recruitment Employment Status

St. Gallen Employees Global Essay Competitors 38 %

48 % 15 % Entrepreneurs 52 % Students (not working) 37 %

St. Gallen Symposium Leaders of Tomorrow Community 10 % Other

… mainly from Gen Y () ... with a great variety of academic backgrounds

Year of birth Academic background

16 % 1996 or later 20 % STEM Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics 1991 to 1995 Social Sciences, Journalism & Information 43 % 30 %

Business, Administration & Law 1986 to 1990 28 % 40 %

1985 or before 13 % 10 % Other areas of study

… from more than 90 countries all over the world 4 KEY INSIGHTS

Call for a new social contract between generations on 84% sustainability, fairness, and the limits of freedom of the Leaders of Tomorrow blame the elder generation for having From the perspective of the Leaders of Tomorrow, unrestricted individual freedom is granted themselves too much freedom not a viable solution for societies around the world. They take a clear stand against at the expense of the younger genera- a purely egocentric interpretation of freedom and emphasize the need to show con- tion, mainly in terms of environmental sideration for others, mostly valuing the welfare of society over individual freedom. exploitation for the benefit of economic growth to increase their own wealth Maximizing short-term profits, previous generations have caused environmental and financial damages for which the next generations will have to pay. Their short- term thinking has become a pertinent concern for the vast majority of the Leaders of Tomorrow. The leaders of today would do well to address this concern proactively and start an honest dialogue.

Restrictions demanded for protecting personal data and 75% preventing manipulation and verbal abuse in the digital sphere of the Leaders of Tomorrow recommend restricting the freedom Platforms are expected to work hand-in-hand with state institutions to better pre- to express oneself freely on the vent online manipulation and abuse and to protect personal data. Most Leaders of Internet if others are severely Tomorrow see state institutions in the lead for changing the rules of the game to- insulted or verbally abused wards greater protection of data privacy and security, but technology providers are under obligation as well. The Leaders of Tomorrow also advocate that personal data should be controlled by its owners when it is used by online platforms.

The Leaders of Tomorrow take a very clear stance against unlimited freedom of speech on the Internet. The majority thinks that platforms that until now have often taken a “hands off” approach, rejecting content filtering by claiming they are “just the messenger”, should be obliged to prevent and censor hate speech and fake news on the Internet.

Pushback against technology that limits users’ freedom 67% of choice; users want to stay and feel in control of the Leaders of Tomorrow consider algorithms that filter Technological developments are viewed with ambivalence by the Leaders of Tomor- the online content they see row. Mobile technology and filtering algorithms are not unanimously appreciated as a restriction of their freedom for their convenience but also spark skepticism because they restrict, patronize or of information simply interfere (e.g., by distraction) with a person’s free choice.

Collecting personal data by companies is viewed with particular suspicion when used in new technologies and tools over which customers do not have the slightest control. 5

High readiness to delegate certain decision tasks to AI, but this varies considerably with the type of decision 53% of the Leaders of Tomorrow Artificial intelligence (AI) support is embraced for a wide range of jobs. The willing- would involve AI in the process ness to delegate responsibility and decision making varies according to the nature of selecting job candidates of the job. This willingness is lowest for the delegation of selecting job candidates and highest for granting customers discounts or setting surcharges. The option of making the final decision oneself from a shortlist created by the AI is more often 89% preferred than the reverse option. Apparently, the Leaders of Tomorrow feel more of the Leaders of Tomorrow in control in this scenario. would involve AI in the process of granting discounts or setting surcharges for customers

Technology’s overall impact on freedom is seen with some concern; transparency and ethical principles built 93% into technologies may drive future business models of the Leaders of Tomorrow see threats of technology‘s impact Most Leaders of Tomorrow are cautiously optimistic about the general impact new on freedom in the world, more than technologies will have on freedom in the world. However, more than a third of these a third fear more threats than Digital Natives fear more threats than opportunities. opportunities

When evaluating technology-related scenarios in the near future (5 years from now), there is a discrepancy between predictions and dreams: the most desirable scenar- 92% ios are not necessarily the most likely ones. These gaps may indicate opportunities of the Leaders of Tomorrow for promising future business models. The largest gaps between strong desirability have a big desire for new business and low probability concern morally motivated future business scenarios based on models that guarantee transparency transparency, data privacy, ethical principles, and protection against . and data privacy, but just 44% con- sider it likely that this will happen 6 PERSPECTIVES ON INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM

From a philosophical perspective, free- sophical as well as physical battles have of not only unlimited markets but also dom is an exceptionally complex con- been fought to advance the freedom of unbounded individual freedom has struct. An universal understanding hard- of the individual against threats of op- also emerged: Examples are behaviors ly exists. The specific interpretations pression or censorship by more power- that damage the environment, the dark and ideals have always been shaped by ful institutional actors like kings, states, sides of the Internet, or elites who visibly cultural and historical factors. The dis- religions or – more recently – corpora- allow themselves abundant freedoms to course on necessary defenses of – but tions, through the rule of law. Especially the detriment of other world regions also limitations to – individual freedom in modern times, there has been a wide- and younger generations – culminating and the needs of society as a whole, ly shared understanding that individual a few months ago in the clash of the have spanned all of recorded history and freedom of speech and action is posi- boomer and younger generations on given rise to many different schools of tively connoted. In recent years though, various platforms with the thought. Over several millennia, philo- an awareness of the destructive aspects “OK boomer” meme (Romano, 2019).

FIGURE 1 The Leaders of Tomorrow take a clear position against a purely egocentric interpretation of freedom and in favor of limits and responsibility towards society; they don’t consider freedom a Western but a global value

What does freedom mean to you? | Top2box versus bottom2box

Completely disagree/ Completely agree/ Uncertainty Tend to disagree Tend to agree (Neither/nor)

Freedom must always come with limitations. 17 % 74 % 9 %

In principle, the welfare of the community/society must take precedence over the freedom of the individual. 30 % 48 % 21 % Freedom of choice is an illusion. Thoughts, preferences and actions are determined by genetic 43 % 43 % 14 % and social factors and other circumstances.

Freedom is largely a Western value. 59 % 27 % 14 %

Great freedom of choice (=decision making possibilities) 63 % 20 % 17 % is more of a burden than a gift.

The ideal kind of freedom means being able to do 7 % 4 % anything, without showing consideration for others. 88 %

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 7

A purely selfish conception of freedom, of choice could paradoxically become a And cultural, philosophical, or religious emblematic for the 80s and 90s of last burden when important decisions must background may influence the answers. century (Andersen, 2012), seems to have be made day after day, always com- Civilizations from as far back as Ancient served its time. Given the new opportu- bined with the doubt whether another Greece, with its famed philosophers, nities but also new threats heralded by decision would have been better – at have struggled to define the concepts technology, it may be high time to rebal- least this has been suggested by some of freedom and free will. Their ideas ance freedom of the individual and the research (Schwartz, 2004). However, the ranged from being free from outside individual’s responsibility and constraint Leaders of Tomorrow apparently do not coercion, to following nature, to follow- required by living in a shared world. perceive it this way: Most respondents ing the will of a deity (Long & Sedley, disagreed with the statement that free- 1987). Yuval Noah Harari argued in his dom may be more of a burden than a article “The myth of freedom” in The Need for limits gift. This means that freedom in terms Guardian (2018) that free will may be a of free choice is not perceived as pres- myth, inherited from theology, to justify When it comes to individual freedom sure but seems to be appreciated by the “why God is right to punish sinners for in general, the Leaders of Tomorrow’s Leaders of Tomorrow. This applies to their bad choices and reward saints for understanding is clearly characterized Western (West Europe and North Ameri- their good choices.” by consideration for others. The agree- ca) respondents as well as to those from ment to the different statements shows other regions (all other countries in the Neuroscience, too, has long challenged a clear ranking with a purely egocentric sample) (68% disagreement by Western the conception of free will. In his famous interpretation in the last place, and vs. 60% by non-Western respondents). experiments, Libet (1985) showed that statements in favor of limits and re- unconscious brain activity preceded vol- sponsibility for society in the leading On the question of whether “Freedom untary movements approximately half a positions. is largely a Western value” – indicating second before the participants became that the current concern and discus- aware of their intention to move. This At the very top of the ranking, with an sion about freedom may be culturally suggests that decisions may be made at exceptionally high degree of approval distorted – there is clear opposition. an unconscious level first, and our per- and very low uncertainty, is the need Freedom, from the perspective of most ception that actions are taken by our for limits. The Leaders of Tomorrow are Leaders of Tomorrow, seems to be con- free will comes about in retrospect. Be- convinced that boundaries are insepa- sidered a global value, that is, an issue havioral scientists followed up on Libet’s rably linked to freedom. Responsibility of worldwide relevance. More detailed findings and demonstrated that the be- towards society comes next, with nearly analyses show that respondents from lief in free will has implications for social half of the respondents agreeing that West Europe and North America show behavior. For instance, those who do not the welfare of society should take pre- a less clear position in this respect than believe in truly free will tend to violate cedence over freedom of the individu- other world regions (52% disagreement social rules more often (e.g., Vohs & al. But there is also almost a third dis- by Western vs. 64% by non-Western Schooler, 2008), and, vice versa, are more agreeing, and the level of uncertainty respondents). forgiving towards offenders (e.g., Shar- is high here. More than 20% could not iff et al., 2014). make up their minds whether to agree or disagree with this statement. More Is freedom an illusion? In view of the rapid development of new than 20% could not make up their minds intelligent technology and the debate whether to agree or disagree with this The most philosophical statement about about its sometimes claimed superiority statement. Given the trade-off inherent freedom – “freedom of choice is an illu- over human decisions, the question of to this item, between society and indi- sion” – led to the biggest polarization what can boost or constrain human free vidual, and the potential for abuse by between respondents. More than 40% will is going to take on a completely new undemocratic forces, the high level of of the Leaders of Tomorrow agree with relevance. uncertainty is understandable. the idea that freedom of choice is an illu- sion and that one cannot escape the in- Freedom is of course not only freedom fluences of the environment and genes. from restrictions and chains, but also Just as high is the percentage of those freedom to act and decide on your own who reject this statement and 14% are responsibility. In many of today’s societ- undecided. The item of course addresses ies with their abundant options, freedom a very difficult, sophisticated question. 8 INHERITED CONSTRAINTS: FREEDOM AS AN INTERGENERATIONAL PROBLEM

When talking about freedom and its lim- held on financial decision making and are accompanied by reflections about its, one intergenerational issue stands overspending at the expense of young- the situation of the older generation out: The climate crisis threatens the er people. The Leaders of Tomorrow are and the understanding that it is easy to freedom of future generations. In face part of the younger generation. Do they judge in retrospect – admitting that the of this crisis, young people around the blame the older generation? The answer younger generation can also be obliv- globe have joined forces in an environ- is clear: Most of them do. More than 8 out ious to the future costs of present be- mental movement of unprecedented of 10 say that the accusation “The elder havior. And sometimes they even grant dimensions. Given how long the threat generation has granted themselves too the older generation some credit for cer- of rising CO2 levels for the planet’s tem- much freedom at the expense of the tain achievements for today’s standard perature has been known, their concerns younger generation” is justified – at of living. However, many participants – about their future need to be put into least in a few aspects. Just 12% consider even those who considered the accusa- context with earlier destructive behav- it unjustified. In open statements that tion true in just a few aspects – blame ior of prior generations. Similar discus- participants could add to explain their them heavily in the open explanations sions, on a smaller scale, have also been answers, sometimes the accusations of their accusations. The main reasons

FIGURE 2 The vast majority of the Leaders of Tomorrow blame the elder generation for having granted itself too much freedom at the expense of the younger generation

Sometimes the older generation is accused of having granted itself too much freedom at the expense of the younger generation. What do you think of this accusation?

No answer Absolutely justified Main reasons for the accusation according to open-ended answers 4 % 6 % 12 % Absolutely unjustified Justified in environmental exploitation, degradation, pollution: 28 % many aspects 24 % prioritization of economic growth and their own wealth (wealth inequality, capitalistic world, debt burden, unfair pension and healthcare system): 14 %

general short term thinking, lack of thinking about the future generation / consequences: 12 % Justified in few aspects 54 %

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 9

for these accusations are environmental time for the older and younger genera- exploitation, degradation and pollution, tions to agree on a new social contract prioritization of economic growth and on sustainability, fairness, and the limits their own wealth, general short-term of freedom. thinking or a lack of consideration for the future generations and the conse- quences of their actions. It seems to be

BOX 1

The Leaders of Tomorrow accuse the elder generation of having granted itself too much freedom – some exemplary quotes

“Older generations have knowingly passed on the bill “Economic exploitation of resources and uncontrolled for many of the most profound societal issues, including consumption has degraded the planet to a point beyond , demographic shifts, and inequality, and full repair and built an unsustainable concept of internati- have instead reaped the short-term gains from their under- onal development. Their freedom to produce and consume, investment or downright destructive policies. They‘ve set has resulted in the younger generation‘s most pressing the forest ablaze, dancing around the campfire, in the and unsolvable challenge in the history of the human race.” knowledge that they wouldn‘t have to deal with the (Employee, USA) consequences.” (Employee, USA) “They granted themselves too much debt at the expense „Older generations cared more about keeping their status of the younger generation. If freedom is a euphemism for rather than building a better future for everyone. We also, debt, then sure.” (Entrepreneur, Singapore) as a newer generation do the same thing, but for other reasons, mainly the hyper-connected world and meaning- “ […]. There has been a certain degree of nearsightedness less interactions that we have today.“ (Entrepreneur, Chile) in the way older generations have carried out rampant environmental damage, however, a blame game is not the “Depletion of natural resources due to which there is scarcity solution for anything. We can learn from our past mistakes for the younger generation. Pollution, forest fires, melting and live more responsibly and act more consciously as a of ice, holes in ozone layer are all standing witnesses of the global community.” (Student, Japan) freedom older generation exercised.” (Student, India) 10 FREEDOM IN THE DIGITAL SPHERE: TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN RESTRICTIONS AND PRESERVATION

Free speech on the Internet The list of benefits is long: circum- and thus to become a potential “mass vention of state censorship, citizen ”, which was previously reserved While individual freedom has always journalism, access to information and for “official” media organizations. But it been a heavily debated topic, the rapid education for all, whistleblowing, avail- is a double-edged sword: It also enables emergence of digital technologies has ability of scientific data and general destructive forces, malevolent entities raised a number of new issues. The open-source content are important ex- or individuals to post extremist propa- tension between freedom and digital amples. Furthermore, the Internet has ganda, child pornography, live streaming technologies has many faces. Nobody created worldwide networks, commu- of attacks and massacres, , lies would deny that the Internet enables nities and collaborations independent and hatred – shielded by the comfort- communication across the globe with- from direct personal exchange. This also able anonymity of the Internet. While out boundaries of time and distance means that everyone has the opportu- criminal actions can be prosecuted by and thus extends individual freedom. nity to be read by many other people law, the general regulation of freedom

FIGURE 3 The Leaders of Tomorrow take a very clear position against unlimited freedom of speech on the Internet

Personal freedom in the context of digital technologies. Please tick whether you < agree or disagree > with the following statements. Prespecified statements on freedom of speech on the Internet

No boundaries Boundaries

20 % 17 % 73 % 75 %

8 % 14 %

9 % 8 %

66 % 75 % 17 % 17 %

People in public life should put up Freedom of speech on the Internet The freedom to speak freely The freedom to express oneself with being insulted on must not be restricted under about anything on the Internet freely on the Internet should the Internet and not complain. any circumstances, even if should be restricted if it is used be restricted if others are deliberately wrong or even abusive to spread lies (fake news). severely insulted or verbally abused content is posted. (hate speech).

Completely agree/Tend to agree Neither agree or disagree Completely disagree/Tend to disagree

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 11

of speech on the Internet is a controver- Communication skills “Humanity should be taught as a sial issue. Where should the boundaries course; people should understand of freedom of speech on the Internet be Pasthtana from the St. Gallen Knowledge humanity is all about expressing drawn? The Leaders of Tomorrow’s gen- Pool has a particularly comprehensive per- yourself without hurting those eral advocacy of limits translates into spective on the problem of hate speech. around you. Humanity should be concrete recommendations here: They She sees it as a question of humanity practiced and preached in younger take a clear position against unlimited that should be taught from childhood classes.” (Pashtana, Activist, Afghanistan) freedom of speech on the Internet and (see quotation). However, this is probably clearly recommend restrictions against not only a question of good will but also hate speech and fake news. Paradox- of new skills. The Internet has taken free- ically, to preserve the freedom of the dom of expression to a new global level digital sphere, freedom may need to be and this requires new communication restricted. skills and the awareness of the effect of words on others. Currently it seems that Women view the limiting of hate speech the opposite is true. The sensitivity for as particularly favorable. They agree the right tone appears to be lower than in more strongly than men with the state- face-to-face contacts and there is a dan- ment that the freedom of the Internet ger of a brutalization of communication. should be restricted to prevent it (81% Here is a comment from a participant of agreement by women vs. 72% by men), the survey: “I think it is clear that the while there is no striking difference to freedom to threaten and target people men regarding the statement about without any repercussions is a danger- fake news (75% agreement by women ous situation and creates a false sense of vs. 73% by men). One reason for the gen- ‘Internet cowboyism’ where people can der difference may be that hate speech truly post outrageous things which in no is not only more prevalent against wom- way would be permitted in normal public en, it also frequently takes the form of dialogue. Freedom only goes so far as in sexual harassment, as summarized in a that it does not infringe on the freedom recent report published by the Europe- of others, and that is clearly on collision an Parliament (Wilk, 2018). Saif from course here.” the St. Gallen Knowledge Pool is keen to make the public aware of this aspect of “[…] I‘d like to draw attention to the negative side of free expression on Internet, hate speech (see quotation). especially against women on social media; obviously in developing countries like Bangladesh and from South East Asia. To be very frank, there is no such definite solution rather than building awareness on how negative comments by men toward women will eventually haunt back to their own family and friends, which they don‘t see according to their short-term vision.” (Saif, Entrepreneur, Bangladesh) 12

A variety of measures against malev- social media: 63% consider such a ban – olent behavior on the Internet are cur- as recently announced by (Kelly, rently discussed in the media, and all 2019) – at least acceptable. Only the raise considerable controversy. Which of option of revoking the possibility of on- them would the Leaders of Tomorrow be line anonymity receives less acceptance. willing to accept in order to prevent the In some regions of the world, revealing abuse of freedom on the Internet? They identities would have serious and dan- see social media companies in particular gerous consequences, be it due to cen- as responsible for curtailing malevolent sorship of free speech, of behavior. Almost 90% say that it is at sexual orientation or gender identity, or least acceptable to have social media believing in the “wrong” – or perhaps companies censor abusive and fake con- no – deity. When online anonymity is tent, and more than 80% would even threatened by new legislation, Internet make them accountable for it. So the activists regularly jump to its defense – majority thinks that platforms that un- so passionately that such conflicts have til now have often taken a “hands off” been labeled “Nymwars” (e.g., York, approach, rejecting content filtering by 2011). Nevertheless, 60% of the Lead- claiming they are “just the messenger”, ers of Tomorrow consider abandoning should instead be obliged to prevent and online anonymity to increase individual to censor hate speech and fake news on accountability at least acceptable. the Internet. While such demands are not new, they come from an unusual Members of the St. Gallen Knowledge corner: Digital Natives. Compared to Pool who were asked a short series of their clear position on the responsibility open-ended questions also contributed of social media companies, the Leaders their thoughts. Some of their ideas for of Tomorrow are more reserved about measures against hate speech and fake a general ban of political advertising in news are shown on the next page.

FIGURE 4 The Leaders of Tomorrow think that social media companies should be obliged to prevent and censor abusive content on the Internet

Several measures on fighting hate speech and fake news online are currently debated. Please tell us your attitude towards the following measures. Prespecified statements to fight hate speech and fake news on the Internet

47 % 40 % 21 % 21 %

42 % 40 %

44 % 40 %

13 % 16 % 37 % 40 %

Have social media Make social media Ban political Abandon the possibility companies censor companies accountable advertisments to publish content abusive and for the content from social media. anonymously fake content. published on (to increase individual their platform. accountability). Necessary Acceptable Unacceptable

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 13 How can we save the benefits of free expression on the Internet while limiting the damage by malevolent players?

“To save the benefits of free expression on the Internet in “Technology companies should improve their community our time of technological advancement, we would need policies and implement more efficient mechanisms to curb to leverage on artificial intelligence to easily identify fake fake news and hate content from their platforms. These news and hate speech before it is used to cause damage.” companies should work uninfluenced by local governments (Elijah, Chef / Social Entrepreneur, Ghana) but in sync with organizations.” (Chirag, Travel Tech Entrepreneur, India)

“Short-term regulatory policies will not shift the culture “The question is one of enforcement of and respect around Internet usage and its ethics. This must emerge as a for existing laws. […] Regulation must on the one hand longer-term project implemented by public and private ins- build on technology such as Facebook where most of these titutions through the education system to teach people the infringements take place but also foster human responsi- benefits of free expression when employed ethically and the bility and not lay off such a crucial government task (law consequences, they derive from abusing it.” (Jesse, Researcher, enforcement) to private companies.” Analyst, Author on Foreign Policy in the Middle East, China) (Benedikt, FinTech Entrepreneur Switzerland)

“[…] Social media platform themselves should aggressively promote strategic digital contents that build awareness to fight the mindset that is shrinking the benefits of free expression. The idea here is to create the „safe spaces“ in a more organic way rather than any imposed ban which threatens free speech.” (Saif, Entrepreneur, Bangladesh) 14 Privacy and control should get paid in exchange for their data. These opinions are very much in Data has been named the new oil of the line with what musician and entrepre- digitalized world (The Economist, 2017). neur will.i.am wrote in 2019 for The In the course of digitalization, more and Economist Open Future initiative on the more data is being produced and young role of markets, technology and free- people are sometimes accused of being dom in the 21st century: “Personal data too generous or even careless with their needs to be regarded as a human right, personal data. Questions such as wheth- just as access to water is a human right. er the collection of this data should be The ability for people to own and control allowed or forbidden by default, or to their data should be considered a central what extent users should be remuner- human value. The data itself should be ated for it, have been topics of heated treated like property and people should discussions. Data breach scandals have be fairly compensated for it.” further fueled the debates. It seems that these discussions have left their On the other hand, many of the respon- mark: More than half of the respondents dents are likely to become future busi- fully agree that data collection by plat- ness leaders who may want to profit form providers should be prohibited by from Big Data and personalized services default and only be allowed with explicit themselves. How does that fit in with consent; another 32% at least tend to this position? A closer look at the sub- agree. And two thirds of the respon- group of entrepreneurs among the re- dents even support the idea that users spondents shows that there are indeed

FIGURE 5 The Leaders of Tomorrow want personal data to be controlled by its owners and remunerated when it is used by online platforms

What do you think about the collection of personal data on the Internet?

That providers and platforms on the Internet collect data from users of their sites …

… should be allowed by default … should be prohibited by default and only be prohibited after 4 10 % 32 % 54 % and only permitted with explicit refusal by users. the explicit consent of users.

14 % 86 %

I think it is justified …

… that platforms are allowed … that users should be paid for to collect personal data for free 6 % 27 % 40 % 27 % the collection, usage and monetizing in exchange for users accessing of their data by platforms. and using the platform.

33 % 67 %

Completely agree with the left … Tend to agree with the left statement Tend to agree with the right statement Completely agree with the right …

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 15 differences between them and the rest FIGURE 6 of the respondents: They express sig- The Leaders of Tomorrow expect protection of nificantly higher levels of agreement personal data as a shared responsibility, with the interests of the companies and with state institutions in the lead platforms. Nevertheless, the general tendency observed for the entire sample Who should be responsible for ensuring that personal information (data) from social networks is also reflected in their answers. Thus, users is not being used to their detriment? | Average distribution of 100 Points to the following parties, depending on the extent of their responsibility reservations against permissive han- dling of personal data seem to be the 41 points prevailing attitude among the Leaders 35 points of Tomorrow.

24 points But whose responsibility is it to ensure that personal data is not used to harm users of social networks? The respon- dents were asked to distribute points to express the extent to which they viewed State institutions The respective technology The users themselves different players as being in charge. (governments,36 % legislators) providers (companies) through (individual responsibility) Most responsibility is assigned to state through regulation self-regulation (even if it goes agsinst their own institutions (41 points on average), business interests) closely followed by the platform provid- ers (35 points), and the users themselves n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 follow at some distance with 24 points on average. This looks like a vote for more regulation by governments and legislators; the Leaders of Tomorrow ex- pect state institutions to take the lead in protecting data privacy and security.

It should be noted, however, that most TABLE 1 respondents distributed their points across the different players, indicating Almost no one assigns full responsibility for shared responsibility – everyone needs data protection in social media to just one player to do their part to protect personal data from abuse. Please distribute 100 points among the three parties according to their responsibility that personal information (data) from social networks users is not being used to their detriment.

To put it in concrete figures: Nearly no- State institutions The technology providers The users body awarded 91 to 100 points – which would have been the equivalent to Average score (sum = 100) 41 points 35 points 24 points (almost) sole responsibility – to just one of the parties (see table 1). 0 points, Distribution of the points which means no responsibility, were also rarely assigned. However, more 0 points 2 % 6 % 13 % than half of the respondents awarded 1 to 20 points 17 % 22 % 55 % a maximum of 20 points to the users, while state institutions and technolo- 21 - 50 points 54 % 64 % 38 % gy providers mostly received between 21 and 50 points. State institutions in 51 - 70 points 21 % 11 % 5 % particular frequently received more than 51 points. 71 - 90 points 6 % 3 % 2 %

91 to 100 points 2 % 0 % 0 %

Basis: all respondents (n=898) 16

FIGURE 7 The Leaders of Tomorrow take a critical and differentiated stance towards companies’ usage of personal data by means of new technologies

To what extent do you think these measures are reasonable or acceptable? | Prespecified statements

Selective/individual pricing, i.e. customers receive different prices 4 19 % 35 % 42 % for the same products depending on their profile created by data.

Using sophisticated presettings without explicitly communicating this to steer customers in the direction desired by the company. 4 20 % 40 % 36 % (‚Nudging‘/‚Choice Architecture‘)

Using biometric data (for example about fitness, nutrition, sleep) 10 % 33 % 26 % 31 % to offer personalized health insurance rates.

Using individual location data to send advertisements optimized 11 % 43 % 27 % 19 % in time and space (location tracking).

Using biometric data (for example about fitness, nutrition, sleep) 11 % 47 % 24 % 18 % to offer personalized product suggestions.

Reasonable Acceptable Rather unfair Not tolerable

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020

Whatever the Leaders of Tomorrow Just a quarter consider them as accept- these reserved assessments are surpris- may think about the collection and pro- able or reasonable – with the latter at ing and important to know. It can be tection of personal data, technological merely 4%. Perhaps these measures observed that the answers of today’s literacy is a necessity for companies in were rated so poorly because there is no entrepreneurs among the Leaders of order to survive in a rapidly developing realistic chance to control them from the Tomorrow are less reluctant than those business environment. customers’ end. Using biometric data of the students and employees. Never- to offer personalized insurance rates – theless, the Don’ts outweigh the Do’s for When it comes to different smart digi- which allows a certain level of control them as well. tal applications that companies may – because it presupposes that the users in the future or already today – use in release their data – is also rejected as relation to their customers, the Leaders unfair or not tolerable, but only by a of Tomorrow again take a skeptical view modest majority of nearly 60%. about what is reasonable and what is not acceptable. But their assessments The majority flips when personal data are also differentiated. is used for different purposes: 54% find the use of individual location data to “Selective pricing” (i.e., customers re- optimize advertisements reasonable ceive different prices for the same prod- or at least acceptable, and 58% would ucts depending on their profile created accept that biometric data is used for by data) and “Choice Architecture” (i.e., personalized product suggestions. But the strategic use of sophisticated de- these are narrow majorities. Even for fault settings – without explicitly com- these measures the share of votes municating this – to steer customers against is quite high. or users in the direction desired by the company) were rated particularly poorly. In view of the fact that these are not Three quarters assessed these measures only Digital Natives but many will also as rather unfair or even not tolerable. likely run their own companies one day, 17 TECHNOLOGY AND HUMAN AGENCY: DECISIONS BETWEEN CONVENIENCE AND CONTROL

Smartphone ubiquity time and space. In this way freedom of bigger problems in terms of restrictions communication is promoted – nobody imposed by mobile phone usage. The A very tangible example of modern would deny this. But on the other hand, Leaders of Tomorrow are aware of them technology can also reveal insights into smartphones potentially also constrain and obviously find it difficult to maintain the tension between technology and freedom. To be reachable at any time (self-)control in terms of resisting the freedom: The smartphone is, without could also be perceived as a restriction permanent attraction (and distraction) any doubt, the most important techno- of freedom. The Leaders of Tomorrow of the technical devices. Finally, when it logical device of the young generation, are remarkably split on this issue: More comes to judging how dependent they and it affects freedom in different ways. than 44% see being always reachable are on the technical devices, half of the On the one hand it naturally extends as a restriction of their freedom, while respondents admit feeling lost without individual freedom and convenience 37% disagree. For the statements on their smartphone and nearly 60% would because it enables people to commu- “time-consumption” and “concentra- consider it a deprivation of their free- nicate whenever they want and with tion-killing”, however, there is much dom if someone took their smartphone whomever they want, independent of more consent: These seem to represent away.

FIGURE 8 The Leaders of Tomorrow are aware of the constraints and dependencies important technologies like smart and mobile phones impose on them

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? | Prespecified statements

Constraints

My smartphone negatively impacts my ability to concentrate 19 % 46 % 12 % 17 % 6 % and focus on a single task.

My smartphone/mobile phone demands too much of my time. 21 % 41 % 14 % 18 % 6 %

It is a restriction of my freedom to be reachable at any time. 11 % 33 % 18 % 27 % 10 %

Dependence

I'd consider it a deprivation of my freedom if someone took 27 % 41 % 13 % 11 % 7 % away my smartphone/mobile phone.

Without my smartphone/mobile phone, I feel really lost. 11 % 38 % 15 % 24 % 12 %

Completely agree Tend to agree Neither agree or disagree Tend to disagree Completely disagree

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 18 It is interesting that the detrimental AI, algorithms and effect on smartphone use on concen- human choice tration is seen as such a problem by so many Leaders of Tomorrow. This may be Sophisticated algorithms and artificial best described as an addiction that peo- intelligence are some of the most im- ple are aware of, but still cannot seem to portant and promising technological overcome or control to the extent they developments of our time, especially in wish. Indeed, some authors argue that a business context. Algorithms can im- our always-on lifestyle together with prove the targeting of communication the infinite access of information have and offerings of companies and plat- led to “information obesity” (Brabazon, forms, often even to the point of indi- 2013; Carmody, 2010). vidualization. AI is a branch of computer science that deals with the simulation of The online magazine Minds & Machines intelligent behavior in computers or the recently even wrote an article about sov- ability of a machine to imitate intelligent ereignty in the digital age: “[…] for many human behavior. In other words, it can of us, even temporarily disconnecting not only support human work and deci- from technology requires herculean sion-making processes but could even- effort. And yet an increasing number tually replace them altogether. Thus, AI of people are undertaking that effort, is the first field that threatens to com- precisely because the ceaseless torrent pete with humanity in a domain long of information feels so oppressive and considered unreachable for machines: paralyzing. Digital technology seems to making intelligent decisions. have resuscitated the age-old debate about positive and negative freedom: Most people are already used to social the freedom to access the world’s infor- networks applying algorithms to filter mation and communicate with anyone content for users, online shops track or- has given way to demands for a freedom der history and user behavior to make from dependency on our devices” (Psy- product suggestions, and search en- chology of Technology Institute, 2019). gines tailor results to stored individual profiles. The basis for that is data, very The Philosopher and former Google de- often on a level of detail and in amounts signer James Williams (2018) goes even that many people are not aware of, further. He has called for “freedom of which is analyzed and used for predic- attention” to things that really matter tions by algorithms that most people do without being thwarted by technology. not understand. This perception of technological devices as a disruptive factor in life is likely to Many algorithms are aimed at influenc- present providers with new challeng- ing online search and shopping decisions es but also with new opportunities. An (which ultimately also impacts offline initial response to this challenge is now behavior). They do not exert control provided by one of the mobile operating through authoritarian power, do not im- systems with a downtime feature allow- pose prohibitions or laws, but they sub- ing users to set time limits on the use of tly create different realities (bubbles) certain applications. and thus influence human decisions. 19

FIGURE 9 Most Leaders of Tomorrow consider algorithms that filter online content as constraining and patronizing, while the evaluation of convenience aspects is polarized

Various aspects of personal freedom in the context of digital technologies and their possibilities. Prespecified statements on algorithms that filter the content we see

Convenience, decision aid Restrictions, paternalism

Algorithms that filter the content we see online … Algorithms that filter the content we see online …

41 % 40 % 67 % 63 %

23 % 24 %

14 % 16 %

36 % 36 % 19 % 21 %

… are useful in helping … relieve us from stress by … restrict our freedom … restrict our us make decisions carrying out helpful preselections of information freedom of choice

Completely agree/Tend to agree Neither agree or disagree Completely disagree/Tend to disagree

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020

How do the Leaders of Tomorrow see lection or do not consider them to be the issue of freedom in the context of really helpful. Or maybe they simply this new technology? Do they consider do not want to have a shortlist created algorithms that filter the content they for them but prefer to decide for them- see on the Internet more as a tool of selves from a bigger, unbiased spec- convenience, more as a patronizing in- trum of options. Another quarter of the strument, or both? First and foremost, respondents are not sure whether they they see restrictions in their freedom consider the algorithms to be beneficial of information and freedom of choice or not. in algorithms that filter content, a kind of “algorithmic paternalism”. Two thirds of them agree to corresponding state- ments, just 20% disagree. In contrast, convenience aspects such as decision support by preselection and custom- ized suggestions polarize clearly: Half of the respondents seem to distrust the quality of the algorithm-based prese- 20

FIGURE 10 Most Leaders of Tomorrow would involve AI to a large degree in various business tasks, rising from a lower level in HR tasks to a higher level for product development and even more so for automated pricing

Artificial Intelligence (AI) means that companies are now able to automate various tasks. To what extent should companies automate? Prespecified statements

Granting discounts/setting Selecting job candidates Developing new products surcharges for customers

Human decides (without input from AI) 7 % 3 4 11 % 20 % Human decides among options 14 % 24 % developed by AI

AI decides among options developed by humans 53 % 47 % 76 % 89 % AI decides AI involved AI involved AI involved 36 % (without input from humans) 44 % 34 % 58 %

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020

In an article for Forbes, Bernard Marr However, more than 40% think that AI human-developed options (34%), or (2017) introduced his topic by stating: can preselect options. The power of in- that humans should select among “When it comes to the possibilities and fluence by creating options seems to be AI-developed options (36%). Thus, 9 possible perils of artificial intelligence perceived as smaller than by making the out of 10 respondents would rely on (AI), learning and reasoning by machines final decision. But as the development of the AI for this task. Maybe the high level without the intervention of humans, options creates a shortlist and narrows of overall agreement that AI should be there are lots of opinions out there. Only the scope of possibilities, the perceived involved in decision making in this case time will tell which one [….] will be the level of control exerted by making the can be explained by the fact that AI is closest to our future reality.” final decision may be overestimated or already widely – and successfully – ap- – to put it bluntly – be only an illusion plied in a similar task, namely for pro- In the present study, the Leaders of of control. When it comes to the task of grammatic buying in online advertising. Tomorrow were asked to recommend developing products, far more Leaders Thus, it does not need much imagination which of various tasks should be delegat- of Tomorrow suggest that AI should be to conceive of applying AI solutions to ed fully or partially to AI by companies. granted influence. Just a quarter of the automatic pricing. The interesting ques- The following response options were respondents would do this creative task tions for the future will be to see which available: 1) Humans decide without in- without the support of artificial intelli- decision tasks are best left to humans, put of AI, 2) AI develops a number of op- gence, while nearly 60% would use it for which to AI, and in which ways the two tions and humans decide between these the development of options. So, creating can best cooperate. options, 3) humans develop a number the shortlist is the preferred type of AI of options and AI decides among them, assistance again. or 4) AI decides without input from humans. The variation of the answers is The greatest extent of AI involvement very high. The AI is granted least author- is recommended for a third task, grant- ity in matters of personnel and human ing discounts or setting surcharges for resources. Especially the hiring decision customers. Every fifth participant even itself should be made by only a person thinks that these decisions should be – at least according to about half of the left entirely to AI. And similar percent- Leaders of Tomorrow. ages think that AI should select among 21 LOOKING AHEAD: TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF FREEDOM

A first look at the assessment of the This is surprising at first because the and threats caused by new technolo- future impact of technologies on global leaders of tomorrow are a generation gies, illustrate and may clarify some of freedom in general reveals the follow- that can be considered Digital Natives. their worries as well as their hopes and ing key findings: Most of the Leaders of The time of unreserved techno-opti- visions (see next pages). Tomorrow have neither a naïvely opti- mism seems to be over: The younger mistic nor a fatalistic, negative view. generation apparently is keeping an eye In a nutshell: The overall attitude is open for threats looming behind new cautiously optimistic. But this also technological developments. means that nearly all of them worry about some threats as well. More than a Citations of selected St. Gallen Know- third even fear more threats to freedom ledge Pool members, who describe their than opportunities. expectations about main opportunities

FIGURE 11 Most Leaders of Tomorrow are cautiously optimistic about the impact of new technologies on freedom in the world, but more than a third fear many threats

How will digital technology impact freedom in the world in general? Prespecified statements

The rapid technological change will lead to The rapid technological change will lead to less freedom in the world. 4 % 4 % more freedom in the world.

33 %

60% The rapid technological change creates The rapid technological change creates some opportunities for freedom but also bears many opportunities for more freedom but also bears many threats against freedom in the world. some threats against freedom in the world.

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 22 Which threat do you consider the most challenging, what role does technology play, and how would you suggest tackling the issue?

“Losing control of who is the host of technology and “There will be new kinds of inequalities, not only getting too comfortable with technology leading change” wealth. Knowledge inequality has always existed, [is the threat I consider the most challenging]. but the Internet is exaggerating its effects.” (Lari, Entrepreneur / business owner, Finland) (Nicolas, Software Entrepreneur, Argentina)

“I would say the most pressing challenge is the “While it [AI] can improve the production capabilities of political manipulation of the Internet for personal gains. a company, it also poses a threat to the jobs of millions of The case of Cambridge Analytica is a perfect example people. I‘m in particular concerned about ‚Deep Fakes‘. […] of how technology’s political manipulation can cause We need to develop AI that can detect deep fakes. […].” an infringement of personal information safety.” (Chirag, Travel Tech Entrepreneur, India) (Abdiweli, Co-founder, Youth and Child Network for Human Rights, Somalia)

“Political Manipulation is the worst of them all. […] It is “AI is, inherently, biased. It functions within the implicit important to understand that political freedom should humans impute into AI systems. […] These could be be exercised and our online space should be free of any (and already are) translated into threats to freedom manipulation. Best way to establish (this) (are) online including surveillance and political manipulation.” (Jesse, cyber political rights.” (Pashtana, Activist, Afghanistan) Researcher, Analyst, Author on Foreign Policy in the Middle East, China) 23 Which challenge do you consider the most promising for technology to address and thus promote freedom in the world, and how?

“Technology can play a vital role in increasing economic “The access to and dissemination of information through growth of a developing country as it touches almost all digital tools enables citizens to act more consciously and the touchpoints of a thriving economy starting from social responsibly. Digital technology can further give citizens the inclusion, increased health and education services and opportunity and capability to participate more actively in improved governance hence a healthy economic growth.” the development and decision making of their community. (Saif, Entrepreneur, Bangladesh) Combined, this will lead to the of individuals in our societies leading to less centralized power structures and decision making. Empowerment comes thus with the freedom to act.” (Valerie, Political Entrepreneur, Germany)

“Technology may in my opinion address income and wealth inequality by overcoming notions of scarcity in a post- material economy, allowing citizens of the world to prosper “Technology can end global poverty and hunger. and educate themselves, free of the economic coercion […] technology can build consumer chains, build laborers face today.” (Benedikt, FinTech Entrepreneur Switzerland) demand and support systems for small scale farmers (and) entrepreneurs.” (Pashtana, Activist, Afghanistan)

“Technology has introduced new pathways of human “People in the rural areas, they don‘t have quality prosperity, economic growth, and inter-generational education, poor health centers, less information on harmony in our international community. […] Technology climate changes, less knowledge on animal management can help good governance by building resilience societies by and entrepreneurship skills and if technology is introduced fighting against exclusion and helping to foster inclusion.” in the rural areas all these services would only be available (Abdiweli, Co-founder, Youth and Child Network for Human Rights, Somalia) at their fingertips.”(John, Executive Director, South Sudan) 24

When presented with future scenarios In contrast, their predictions and their about algorithms, AI or new business dreams diverge for the other scenari- models, it is interesting to compare what os. That algorithms will know people’s the Leaders of Tomorrow predict will preferences better than the individu- occur with what they hope or wish for. als themselves is considered relatively The highest probability of occurrence is probable but is desired only by very few. attributed to the scenario that artificial Vice versa, three scenarios that address intelligence will play a key role in many ethical aspects are much more desired companies as a tool for far-reaching than expected. Among these, the sce- strategic decisions. More than 50% of nario that algorithms help people stay the respondents consider it to be very true to their ethical principles ranks rel- likely or certain. A similar share regards atively low in terms of desirability. Prob- this idea to be “highly desirable” or at ably this is again a matter of distrust least “desirable”. The lowest probability against too much control by technology: is assigned to the scenario of absolute Some may find the idea uncomfortable management control by the AI. Less that AI takes over moral decisions from than 20% consider this likely, and the humans and see it as a transgression of desirability is even lower. Both figures boundaries that should better remain in are lowest in the respective rankings. place. These two scenarios match in terms of probability and (un-)desirability: The Leaders of Tomorrow wish for a strong AI support and expect it to come true, but they do not want to lose complete control to AI and do not consider this scenario probable either.

FIGURE 12 There is a mismatch between the predictions and the dreams of the Leaders of Tomorrow: the most desirable scenarios are not necessarily the most likely ones

Forecasts and desires 5 years from now: What do you think the future will hold and what is your ideal vision of the future?

Probability Desirability

Artificial intelligence will play a key role as a tool for 20 % 34 % 10 % 49 % far-reaching strategic decision-making in many companies.

Algorithms will know personal preferences better than 13 % 32 % 4 18 % the individuals themselves know them.

New pioneer business models will emerge that guarantee 13 % 31 % 57 % 35 % transparency and data privacy for users and customers.

There will be official approval procedures for algorithms 8 % 23 % 47 % 40 % to ensure that they do not discriminate against anybody.

Algorithms will be used to help people stay true to their 5 16 % 15 % 48 % ethical principles in their daily purchasing decisions.

There will be companies in which artificial intelligence 5 12 % 2 10 % takes over the management completely.

Definitely Very likely Highly desirable Desirable

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 25

The mismatch between predictions and moral principles are important for the dreams can be seen even more clearly Leaders of Tomorrow. To put it in a nut- when visualized in a matrix. The upper shell: Morality in terms of honest consid- left quadrant is filled with unfulfilled eration for others has the potential to dreams of the Leaders of Tomorrow: be a guiding principle for future genera- Concepts and ideals that they consider tions of business leaders when it comes very desirable but cannot imagine being to developing and designing technolo- realized in near future. These seem to be gies with inherent trade-offs between ideal connecting points, so to speak, for convenience and efficiency on the one promising future opportunities for cou- hand and human freedom of choice on rageous and visionary entrepreneurs. the other.

All these desired scenarios have a com- mon basis: A strong vote in favor of greater morality in future business pro- cedures and models. Apparently, trans- parency, respect for data privacy and

FIGURE 13 The Leaders of Tomorrow have a strong desire for greater morality in future business models and procedures

Forecasts and desires 5 years from now: What do you think the future will hold and what is your ideal vision of the future? | Top2Boxes of 5-point-scales

New pioneer business models will emerge that guarantee high 100 % transparency and data privacy for users and customers.

There will be official approval procedures for algorithms 90 % to ensure that they do not discriminate against anybody.

Algorithms will be used to help people stay true to their 80 % ethical principles in their daily purchasing decisions. Unfulfilled dreams

Artificial intelligence will play a key role as a tool for 70 % far-reaching strategic decision-making in many companies.

Algorithms will know personal preferences better than the 60 % individuals themselves know them.

There will be companies in which artificial intelligence 50 % takes over the management completely. Desirability

40 %

30 %

20 %

10 %

low 0 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

low Probability high

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 26 CONCLUDING REMARKS

Mankind has a long history of co-evolv- According to the present study, how- new generation of leaders will be up to ing with technological and cultural in- ever, we may have reached a turning it remains to be seen. But this study re- ventions. And changes in technology point: The Leaders of Tomorrow are very vealed that, for a start, the Leaders of have impacted freedom in very differ- aware of the new types of constraints Tomorrow do not embrace new tech- ent ways, including how we access, share and dependencies that come with these nologies naïvely and unquestioningly, and analyze information. But until a few increasingly sophisticated technologies but with some skepticism and caution. decades ago, most of the technology – and demand changes that give back Such a critical stance appears helpful mankind had invented was either about control to the users. They also see the when defining the scope with which new “artificial muscle” or increasing efficien- risks arising from the behavior of peo- technologies should be allowed to take cy of carefully designed processes. Tech- ple who are abusing the freedom of the over control in our daily lives. This top- nology, to a large extent, was “dumb”. It internet and the power of new tech- ic requires a broader societal dialogue, might have given us easier access to in- nologies – and want to see these risks to which we hope to contribute a small formation, but we did not expect it to act mitigated by states, companies and piece with the current study. on the information itself in non-trivial individual actors. ways. We did not expect our technology to make its own decisions, or unduly in- Nevertheless, for some business tasks fluence our own. there is relatively widespread accep- tance for handing at least part of the de- Looking at our constant but somewhat cision processes to AI, such as preparing oblivious use of technology today, a a short-list from which a human makes a wise saying seems to have come true: final decision. But what initially appears “First we shape our tools, and thereaf- like a low-risk job for an AI – preparing ter, our tools shape us.” In many areas, a short list of options but leaving the we have already become used to simply final decision to a human – might actually following recommendations that tech- create a dangerous “illusion of control”, nology makes for us – raising import- leading us to believe that we maintain ant questions on whether we are still unrestrained freedom of choice. guiding technology or if technology has started guiding us. Many of us seem How humans can use the opportuni- fine with receiving information about ties of disruptive technologies like AI “reality” that is no-longer shared and while retaining more than a mere illu- objective, but customized and tailored sion of free choice will be an important for each of us. challenge for the future – whether the 27 REFERENCES

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898 Leaders of Tomorrow ties, who have competed in the St. Gallen the St. Gallen Symposium Leaders of from around the globe Global Essay Competition were person- Tomorrow Community, who already at- ally invited to take part in the study by tended past symposia, additionally had The study was targeted at the ‘Leaders the St. Gallen Symposium. While this the chance to win one of three fully paid of Tomorrow’ a carefully selected, glob- year COVID-19 prevented the sympo- visits to the 50th St. Gallen Symposium. al community of very promising young sium, this did not interfere with the talent. survey for this Report. The survey took place well before the postponement, Giving voice to a unique Each year, 200 academics, politicians, when the essays for the Global Essay group of global talent entrepreneurs and professionals around Competition had already been turned in. 30 years or younger are invited to chal- Since we cannot know for certain to- lenge, debate and inspire at the St. Gallen St. Gallen Symposium Leaders of day who will take on relevant positions Symposium. Tomorrow Community of leadership and responsibility in the The St. Gallen Symposium team select- future, this survey cannot claim to be A total of 100 Leaders of Tomorrow ed participants through their world- “representative” in the traditional sense qualify to participate in the St. Gal- wide community of young talent who of population sampling – neither of all len Symposium through the St. Gallen attended past symposia as Leaders of future leaders in general, nor of the re- Global Essay Competition on an annual Tomorrow. gions in which the participants live. basis. The St. Gallen Symposium has in-

vited students from all fields of studies St. Gallen Global However, we captured a broad and in- Essay Competitors and corners of the world to share their ternational group of participants from views on a topic of greater magnitude the Leaders of Tomorrow community

each year since 1989. During the last 30 48 % that allows a very interesting and unique years almost 30,000 thought-provoking 52 % snapshot of a carefully selected group essays from more than 1,000 univer- of young and qualified individuals from sities in over 120 countries have been more than 90 countries around the world. submitted. St. Gallen Symposium Leaders of Tomorrow Community To understand how an increasingly The other part of the Leaders of globalized world is developing, it is im- Tomorrow are hand-selected exception- portant to have this broad participation al young entrepreneurs, politicians and Conducting the survey from across regions and countries and professionals (the so-called “Knowledge from both developed and emerging or Pool”) who, together with the students The online survey was conducted in developing economies. qualifying through the essay competi- English in February 2020. A total of tion as well as former attendees, form 898 Leaders of Tomorrow participated With active and very vocal participants the Leaders of Tomorrow community of in the survey with an interview time of coming from all around the world, this the St. Gallen Symposium. about 30 minutes. The survey demand- study can certainly give a voice to a ed an intensive reflection on freedom in culturally and economically diverse set St. Gallen Global Essay Competition general and in the context of new tech- of contexts, values, desires and mental participants nology from the respondents. As an in- models, something that is necessary to For the Voices of the Leaders of Tomor- centive all participants will receive a dig- reflect the truly global and increasingly row report, students from 245 universi- ital copy of the report. Participants from multi-polar world we live in. 29 Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020

Gender Employment status Field of study2)

38 % Employees 20 % STEM Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics

Social Sciences, Journalism & Information Female 30 % 37 % 15 % Entrepreneurs Male 62 % Business, Students Administration & Law (not working) 37 % 40 %

1 % “other” or 10 % Other 10 % Other areas of study “prefer not to answer”

Year of birth Total work experience Degree2)

1996 or later More than 5 years 16 % 37 % 24 % Doctorate/Ph.D.level

1991 to 1995 MBA/EMBA 13 % 43 % More than 2 years to 5 years Master’s degree or equivalent 27 %

1986 to 1990 53 % 13 % More than 1 year to 2 years 28 %

8 % More than 6 months to 1 year

6 % Up to 6 months Bachelor’s degree 1985 or before 6 % or aquivalent 13 % 9 % No work experience 4 % Other Country of residence by UN sub-region3) Country of residence by OECD membership

West Europe 30 %

North America 17 % OECD

Southern Asia 14 %

Southeastern Asia & Ocenia 12 % 42 % 58 % Eastern Asia 9 %

East Europe & Central Asia 7 %

Africa & Middle East 6 %

Latin America 5% Non-OECD

No answer 1 %

1) Possibly studying in parallel 2) Current field of study/degree for students or field of study of highest degree/highest degree held for non-students 3) Regions follow United Nations sub-region scheme; the more common term “Middle East” was used for what is formally called “Western Asia”

n = 898; “Leaders of Tomorrow – Wave 2020” © Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions & St. Gallen Symposium: Voices of the Leaders of Tomorrow 2020 Nürnberg Institut für Marktentscheidungen e. V. Founder and Anchor Shareholder of GfK SE Steinstraße 21 90419 Nuremberg, Germany [email protected] www.nim.org