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Review of Potential Ecological Impacts from Winter Drawdown

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Review of Potential Ecological Impacts from Winter Drawdown Review of potential ecological impacts from winter drawdown scenarios in Lake St. Lawrence April 24, 2020 Report prepared for: International Joint Commission Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board and Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management Committee ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors wish to thank the members of the IJC’s International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board and Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee for their input and guidance for this report. Bathymetry data for Lake St. Lawrence was provided by the National Hydrological Service of Environment and Climate Change Canada. Subject matter experts at the NYSDEC, OMNRF, DFO, and SRMT are thanks for their input on fish occurrences for Lake St. Lawrence. Staff at the River Institute are thanked for project support and management. Funding for this project was provided by the IJC’s International Watersheds Initiative (IWI) and the River Institute CONTRACTOR AUTHORS Matt Windle, M. Sc. – River Institute – Lead Author Louis Savard, C. Tech, PMP – River Institute – Project Manager Mark MacDougall, M. Sc., C.E.T. – River Institute Mary Ann Perron, Ph. D. – River Institute Matthew MacMillan – River Institute ii Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................ v LIST OF APPENDICES .................................................................................................................................... vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 2 METHODS ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Study area ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Literature review ....................................................................................................................................... 4 GIS analyses of water level scenarios ....................................................................................................... 5 RESULTS & DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................................ 6 Literature review ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Benthic invertebrates ............................................................................................................................ 7 Fish ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 Herpetofauna ........................................................................................................................................ 8 Aquatic mammals ................................................................................................................................. 9 GIS analyses ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Assessment of ecological vulnerability ................................................................................................... 11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................. 12 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 14 TABLES ......................................................................................................................................................... 20 FIGURES ....................................................................................................................................................... 25 APPENDIX A ................................................................................................................................................. 34 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................................................................. 37 APPENDIX C ................................................................................................................................................. 39 APPENDIX D ................................................................................................................................................. 42 APPENDIX E ................................................................................................................................................. 49 APPENDIX F ................................................................................................................................................. 50 APPENDIX G ................................................................................................................................................. 53 APPENDIX H ................................................................................................................................................. 54 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Context of modelled winter water level stage scenarios. Table 2. Coordinates of water gauge stations in Lake St. Lawrence, with corresponding water stage levels (elevation, m) under six different scenarios. Table 3. Modelled predictions of the amount of riverbed in Lake St. Lawrence (LSL) that would be inundated or exposed under six different winter water level scenarios. Table 4. The areas of contiguous river (km2) and isolated pools of water (km2), and the number of isolated pools predicted under six modelled scenarios of water levels in Lake St. Lawrence. Table 5. List of taxa that may be vulnerable to extreme winter drawdown scenarios in LSL. iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Study area with locations of water level gauges in Lake St. Lawrence. Figure 2. Historical seasonal water levels fluctuations in Lake St. Lawrence. Figure 3. Bathymetric digital elevation model of Lake St. Lawrence. Figure 4. Modelled output of Lake St. Lawrence under six winter water level scenarios. Figure 5. Example of modelled output of inundated and exposed areas of Lake St. Lawrence under Scenario 4 water levels. Figure 6. Modelled output of Lake St. Lawrence water level scenarios near Ingleside, Ontario. Figure 7. Predicted number of isolated pools of water of various size classes created under six different winter water level scenarios. Figure 8. Predicted depth (m) of isolated pools created under six different winter water level scenarios. Figure 9. Cross-validation of modelled output of Scenario 1 water levels with remotely sensed UAV imagery capture at the equivalent water level on October 1, 2018. v LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX A. List of benthic invertebrates occurring in Lake St. Lawrence, with references. APPENDIX B. Overwintering habitat requirements of benthic invertebrates inhabiting Lake St. Lawrence, with references. APPENDIX C. List of fish species occurring in Lake St. Lawrence. See Methods section for a description of data sources. APPENDIX D. Overwintering habitat requirements of fish species inhabiting Lake St. Lawrence, with references. APPENDIX E. List of reptile and amphibian species occurring in Lake St. Lawrence. APPENDIX F. Overwintering habitat requirements of adult reptile and amphibian species inhabiting Lake St. Lawrence, with references. APPENDIX G. List of aquatic mammals occurring in Lake St. Lawrence, with references. APPENDIX H. Overwintering habitat requirements of aquatic mammal species inhabiting Lake St. Lawrence, with references. vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ice effects and winter operations of the Moses-Saunders Dam (St. Lawrence River), in accordance with direction from the IJC’s International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board (ILOSLRB), have historically resulted in a large drawdown in water levels on Lake St. Lawrence (LSL; the forebay for the hydropower structures) during winter months. Given ongoing high water levels on Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River through much of 2019 and into early 2020, the ILOSLRB was granted extended deviation authority by the IJC to further increase outflows during the winter months in 2020 in an effort to reduce the flood risk in 2020. Such an increase in outflows could result in further water level drawdown on LSL during the winter months. A similar strategy may be considered in future high water years in an effort to maximize Lake Ontario outflows. The goal of this project was to fill a knowledge gap regarding the potential ecological impacts of greater than normal winter drawdown through a literature review, to conduct a GIS-based analysis of lower water level scenarios in LSL, and to identify vulnerable species. A GIS analysis of 6 winter drawdown
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