Subject: Draft Next Steps for Saturation Studies and Localized Data

05 July 2012

To: DAWG Exec From: CAD Subject: Draft Next Steps for saturation studies and localized data

These excerpts are from the draft meeting notes, to facilitate discussion during our call on July 5, 10am.

Next Steps – Localized Data

1) Overarching

a. Establish a working group to address these issues – through DAWG?

b. The working group will develop a list of issues that need to be resolved by the agencies and eventually convene a meeting with decisionmakers. An example would be to determine what would it take in terms of a commitment from CPUC for continued energy efficiency funding (as opposed to a drop off after the current cycle that is captured by Energy Commission’s “committed- uncommitted paradigm”) so that CEC could include uncommitted IOU program energy efficiency in a published managed forecast to be used for procurement and so that CAISO feels assured that the forecast incremental uncommitted efficiency impacts forecast by Energy Commission are sufficiently reliable to include in transmission planning.

c. Engage Energy Commission’s Expert Panel with the working group.

2) Incremental Energy Efficiency. A key issue from Energy Commission and CPUC’s perspective is that CAISO does not recognize incremental- uncommitted energy efficiency and other demand modifiers. CPUC believes that a conservative position is to continue a “business as usual” level of energy efficiency in the forecast. The working group needs to articulate the issues and then convene a meeting of decisionmakers.

a. Consider whether Energy Commission should produce one or more forecast scenarios that do not include the drop off for energy efficiency program funding that is inherent in the Energy Commission’s committed-uncommitted paradigm. b. An approach would be to forecast forward a 10-year trend – this would probably be a conservative approach. Would this modification to the “incremental-uncommitted paradigm” that be useful for ISO so that they can include the impacts in the base case Powerflow studies?

c. A near term option might be to rename the incremental-uncommitted efficiency report so it is more useful – according to CPUC some agencies and individuals within agencies don’t understand what is in the report or how to use the information so it gets left out.

3) Data – make better use of what is on hand and engage in continuous improvement.

a. Leverage available data to produce forecasts, assess energy efficiency and other demand modifying activities, and ultimately produce and managed forecasts at the bus level to the degree possible with currently available information. Meanwhile, continue working on a plan for a more comprehensive approach. For example, about 1/3 of energy efficiency data is already available in this format. Improve processes at appropriate junctures, e.g., for energy efficiency EM&V increase reporting granularity to the degree possible in the 2013-14 cycle. Improve program tracking similarly, to the degree possible.

b. Examine whether there are one or more busbars that are currently well- represented in EM&V data and whether this could be analyzed as a priority?

a. Collect and utilize saturation data at the busbar level and use it to produce potential estimates at the county or census track level.

b. Ultimately, program tracking and EM&V should capture impact data at the busbar level.

c. Potential studies should be done at the most granular level possible, e.g., county? census track? Can this eventually get to the busbar level?

d. Program designs could use the busbar information to target constrained areas.

e. Expand upon SCE’s approach that melds secondary data (e.g., county assessor data) with advanced meter data using geographic information.

Next Steps – Saturation Surveys

1) Continue to collect good data. Determine who should do it. 2) Through DAWG establish a group of interested parties to discuss the saturation surveys.

3) Develop methods and approaches for using saturation study data to assess market transformation and spillover from energy efficiency programs and codes and standards.

4) Need to resolve issue of funding and other issues. Can funds from CPUC procurement be tapped to supplement EM&V funds for the saturation surveys? This seems reasonable. Need a meeting with decisionmakers from CEC, CPUC, and CAISO.

5) Need to resolve issues related to confidentiality and release of customer data.

6) Have the Expert Panel weigh in on what data are needed for the forecast.

7) EM&V to do: inventory data that are currently collected; develop a strategy for archiving data; talk with procurement about marrying the funding.

8) Make use of data that are collected by EM&V – every project going forward will have a coordination plan.

9) How to leverage audit info with RASS/CEUS type data – this is one part of the “holy grail” – need to start this process and develop a task force to do it.

10) How can advanced meter data be leveraged?