MOTORS OF CHANGE? ELITE ACTORS AND THE SPANISH TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY (1975 -1981) by CHRISTOPHER HILL A thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Schoolof Politics University of Nottingham September2005 cýýP Abstract This thesis examines the methodology prevalent in the analysis of democratic transitions, focusing upon the case study of Spain. Although current literature provides a detailed description of actions taken by elite actors during transition periods and the resultant outcomes, it fails to adequately connect these two factors. This thesis seeks to address the gap in the current literature and to underline the necessity for an explanatory methodology to take into account an amalgamation of approaches. The case of Spain is drawn upon to highlight the importance of the connection between the role of elite actors and the constraints set in place by the system in which they operate. I argue that an awarenessof the existing parameters, both institutional and societal, is critical for an assessmentof possible action to be undertaken. The methodology of comparative politics provides the ability to ascertain where there exists a failing in current theoretical approachesand to address this problem through increased analysis. An increasingly comprehensive appreciation of the actions of individuals and the underlying forces that drive these actions deepens our understanding of transition processesas a whole. I would argue that this thesis has implications for future researchand indeed, relevance in the actual practice of politics. An awarenessof the connection between the individual and the overriding political system is paramount for our understanding of democratic transitions and for future investigation of such processes. In this way, the thesis underlines that the connection between the micro and macro interpretations of transitions is fundamental; not only to guiding systematic analysis, but also to ensuring that research does not remain in the confines of the theoretical but is relevant in the real world. Acknowledgements As a Masters student at the University of Nottingham I undertook a dissertation focused upon Spain's transition to democracy. I had spent the best part of the previous ten years of my life living in Spain and was naturally interested in the country and its politics, and in particular, the character of King Juan Carlos. Little did I know at that time that the desire to attempt to explain, from an admittedly linear and historical perspective, the role of Juan Carlos within Spain's transition would become a fully fledged political science thesis. For my own personal transition throughout this progression, I have many people to thank. I am eternally indebted to my supervisor, Prof. Paul Heywood for his patience, guidance and tremendous support throughout the past five years. To look back over the process and see the manner in which he expertly assisted and directed my efforts is testament to his ability as both a teacher and an expert in his field, but I am perhaps more grateful for my increasingly deepening interest in Spain which has come as a result of our conversations and the evident enthusiasm and commitment he has demonstrated throughout. I have gained a great deal of knowledge and experience undcr Prof. Ilcywood's supcrvision and for this, I thank him. I was fortunate enough to spend my formative years in Madrid and I would like to thank my friends and family there for their time and interest in my project. The insight provided by conversations with them enabled me to provide my theoretical analysis with a human face. They are living proof of the transition in Spain and for providing me with a connection to this, I am most grateful. I have been blessed by a supportive and understanding family who have patiently awaited the end of this process. My mother and father provided a great source of guidance and encouragement and it is to them that I owe the dedication necessary for the completion of this thesis. I would like to express a special thank you to my grandfather who was a tireless example of both hard work and perseverance and although he did not see the culmination of all my hard work, was proud of me and supportive throughout. My final and most important word of thanks goes to Olivia, for being with me every step of the way. For her understanding and patience when listening to my endless ramblings, and for her constant ability to show me what is really important by making me laugh about myself and my project I thank her. For her encouragementand love I am forever grateful. It is to Olivia that this thesis is dedicated. "An important lesson which I for one have learned from the Spanish democratic transition, in which I have decisively taken part, is that historical determinism does not exist. In living and making this period of history, I have received the most important ratification of an essential idea: that the future, far from being decided, is always the realm of liberty, open and uncertain, although foreseeable by the analyses of the structural conditions and the operating forces of the society in which we live, the most essential of which is the free will of those men who shape history. " (Adolfo Suarez Prime Minister in Spain 1976-1981) TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures and Tables iii Introduction: When all the dust has been swept away 2 1. Case study: Spain 3 II. Theoretical approaches 5 III. Spain's path to democracy 7 IV. First event chapter: Nomination of Juan Carlos 9 V. Second event chapter: Nomination of Adolfo Suarez 10 VI. Third event chapter: The reform of the Cortcs 10 VII. Fourth event chapter: Attempted military coup 12 VIII. Overview 13 Chapter One: Twentieth Century Development: Spain's path to democracy: 15 Chapter Two: Constructing the Framework: Analysis of suitableapproaches 61 I. Rational Choice Theory 62 II. Rational Choice Institutionalism 64 III. Game Theory 67 IV. Historical Institutionalism 70 Chapter Three: The Nomination of Juan Carlos: An unexpectedsuccessor 82 Chapter Four: The Nominationof Adolfo Suarez: A valuableasset in place 104 1 Chapter Five: The Reform of the Cortes: Knight to King Four 130 Chapter Six: The Attempted Military Coup: Democracy held hostage 159 Conclusion 185 1. The Nomination of Juan Carlos 188 II. The Nomination of Adolfo Suarcz 190 111. The Reform of the Cortcs 193 IV. The AttemptedMilitary Coup 195 V. Summary 198 Bibliography 200 11 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES: FIG 3.1: Dominantstrategy for Franco 94 FIG 3.2: Juan Carlos as one of several options for Franco 97 FIG 3.3: Juan Carlos as the only option for Franco 98 FIG 4.1: Ordering of preferences for Juan Carlos: The issue of Arias Navarro 107 FIG 4.2: Decision options and potential outcomes: The issue of Arias Navarro 110 FIG 4.3: Dominant strategy for Arias Navarro 113 FIG 4.4: Demonstration of ability of Juan Carlos to challenge power base of Cortes 1975 114 FIG 4.5: Existing power groups in Spanish society 118 FIG 4.6: Dominant strategy for Juan Carlos 1976 123 FIG 5.1: Ordering of preferences for Juan Carlos: Issue regarding Cortes 135 FIG 5.2: Decision options and potential outcomes: The issue of the Cortes 137 FIG 5.3: Decision to replace or reform Cones in 1976 138 178 FIG 6.1: Armada's game - misinformed FIG 6.2: Juan Carlos' game 179 TABLE 1.1: Attitudeson the desirabilityof democracyin the aftermath of Franco's death, May and December 1975 35 111 Introduction When all the dust has been swept away... "What is Spain? Spain is a swirl of dust on the path of history after a great nation has galloped past."' "When all the dust hasbeen swept away, therein will you seethe shapeof things2" The driving force behind this thesis has been the desire to explain better the role and relative power of individuals within democratic transitions. There exists a wealth of literature detailing the events and trajectory of the Spanish transition to democracy and yet no real attempt has been made to analyse the role of elite actors within the process itself. The role and influence of individuals is a topic of great interest to the field of 3 political science and merits further investigation. The necessity to understand on a more fundamental level, the capabilities and constraints associated with individual involvement in democratic transitions is intricately connected to a comprehensive awarenessof the form of transitions as a process. Focusing my thesis on the Spanish transition provided the ideal forum in which to debate and deconstruct the actions taken and the decisions made by those involved in creating political change. The initial impetus of this thesis was solely aimed at highlighting the importance of individuals over the more traditionally accepted structural understanding of transitions. This methodology led to a historically-linear interpretation of the Spanish transition and did little to further the field of political science. What became apparent was the need to incorporate various theoretical approachesin order to construct an intrinsically coherent structure within which to examine the period in question. It was not sufficient simply to elucidate Spain's transition to democracy from a micro-individualistic perception, but t (JoseOrtega y Gasset) 2Quote given by author 3 "There is also widespread agreement that political elites play a central role in democratization. In particular, whether there is a transition from dictatorship to democracy seems to depend heavily on the interests, values, and actions of political leaders, whether seconded, downwardly mobile, or at least potentially, upwardly mobile. " (I3unce 2000,707). 2 rather attempt to situate decisions made, and actions taken by individuals, within the wider constraints of the structural framework that encompassespolitical activity.