Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

CBM:s Skriftserie 3: 149–165 Uppsala 2001

Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

Soyoung Park

Park, S 2001 Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea – CBM:s Skriftserie 3: 149–165

The Asiatic black bear population in Korea has been reported to be close to extinction and is in urgent need of effective management Suitable bear habitat in Mt Chiri Natio- nal Park and adjacent areas was assessed based on data from field surveys When incorporated with demographic data, this data was fed into a habitat-based, stage- structured, stochastic model in Ramas/GIS A population viability analysis was perfor- med in this model to investigate the effects of poaching on the viability of the population and the potential of a restoration programme of the bear population by supplementation Generally, the simulation results show that the risk of extinction is small when the carrying capacity and the population growth rate are large and the environmental stochasticity is small within the parameter ranges used in this model In conclusion, population viability analysis of a hypothetical Asiatic black bear popula- tion in the Mt Chiri National Park area raises two points Firstly, Mt Chiri National Park can support a viable bear population in a demographic sense, though is probably inadequate for long-term survival in a genetic sense Secondly, a viable bear population, in a demographic sense, may be restored through supplementation Simulation results confirm that there can be a significant difference between a no supplementation policy and one of supplementing only a few individuals

Soyoung Park, Swedish Biodiversity Centre, Box 7007, SE-750 07 Uppsala, SWEDEN E-mail: p_soyoung@hotmailcom

149 CBM:s Skriftserie 3: MSc-theses 1999

Introduction populations in Korea% Seven subspecies of Asiatic black bear are distri- The Korean government has attempted to buted over much of southern Asia including control poaching by abandoning all unused or Pakistan, Afghanistan, northern India, China and informal mounting trails, strictly controlling the Southeast Asia (Ellerman and Morrison-Scott use of firearms and the construction of ecological 1968)% Separate populations are also known to infrastructure, such as underpasses and eco- be present in eastern Russia, Korea, Taiwan and bridges% Some experts have insisted that all the Japan (Servheen 1989)% Throughout most of its wild Asiatic black bears in Korea should be caught range, conservation efforts aimed at the Asiatic and kept in captivity for protection and breeding, black bear are almost nonexistent and legal pro- being reintroduced later, since the number of tection is seldom enforced% individuals is too small to sustain a viable At present, there is no exact estimate of the population% Others have recommended the wild Asiatic black bear population% Servheen supplementation of individuals from China or (1989) considered that data on the Asiatic black Southeast Asia to avoid inbreeding depression% bear was minimal and the validity of distribution These suggested management options can information was questionable% Bunnell and Tait be summarised as: (1981) also commented on the lack of data on 1) anti-poaching; this species% Some studies have focused on 2) establishing ecological infrastructure foraging habits and consequent forest damage between fragmented habitat areas; (Watanabe and Komiyama 1976, Watanabe 1980, 3) supplementation% Torii et al% 1989, Reid et al% 1991, Mizoguchi et al% In addition to these actions, public edu- 1996, Hashimoto and Takatsuki 1997)% Other cation about the bear and the focusing of the researchers have reported on the distribution, efforts of a diverse group who have different demographics and home range of the Asiatic interests, towards a management objective that black bear (Mizuno et al% 1972, Torii 1975, Nozaki will be beneficial to the bear, are also important% et al% 1979, Hazumi et al% 1981, Nozaki and However, since the resources for conservation Mizuno 1983, Ma 1986, Liu and Xiano 1986, efforts are limited, the effect of diverse mana- Ishida 1995)% gement options should be evaluated% Population The status of the Asiatic black bear pop- viability analysis (PVA) is a quantitative method ulation in Korea (Selenarctos thibetanus ussuricus that makes it possible to evaluate the effects of Heude) is similar to that in other Asian countries% management options through simulation Servheen (1989) concluded that ‘the Asiatic black (Shaffer 1990, Norton 1995, Possingham and bear is very close to extinction with a population Davies 1995)% Effective management of a estimate of 57 individuals in 1982 separated into population largely depends on an understanding five separate populations’% This species is listed of habitat requirements as well as population as ‘Natural Monument No% 329’ by the Korean dynamics% There are an increasing number of government and has been under legal protection studies on these subjects, but few have tried to since 1982 (Lee et al% 1994)% Despite these efforts, connect these two fields% the bear population decreased dramatically and it The objectives of thisstudy were to 1) com- was considered to be extinct in the wild% However, pile all currently available knowledge, including traces of bears, such as footprints on the snow, habitat requirements and demographic data, on scats and scratches on trees, were then found at the black bear, 2) assess the suitable bear habitat Mt% Chiri and Mt% Odae where bears were once in Mt% Chiri National Park and adjacent areas, 3) found% The exact number of remaining bears is incorporate the habitat data and demographic unknown, but some experts estimate the number data into a metapopulation model and perform to be between 5 and 20 individuals% There has a population viability analysis, and 4) evaluate been almost no research on bears and bear the effects of poaching on population viability

150 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

127º 128º 129º since it is the largest National Park in Korea and the main vegetation comunity of Mt% Chiri is dominated by Quercus that is known to be more 126º 130º suitable for the bear, whereas the main vegetation 38º community at Mt% Odae National Park is dominated by Abies species% It was thought that some areas outside of the National Park might be suitable habitat for the bear, though these are 37º not protected at present% Thus the areas adjacent to the Mt% Chiri National Park were also included in this study% 36º GIS database The GIS Database consists of topographical and 35º vegetation data% I used the digitised topographic 127º maps (1:25000 or 1:5000) prepared by the Kore- an National Geographic Institute (NGI)% These maps were integrated and converted into a raster (grid) format with a resolution of 50m, based 34º 50 km 33º on the home range size of bears and landscape heterogeneity (Layman and Barrett 1986)% I analysed elevation (m), slope (°), aspect (°, 0 for Figure 1 Distribution of Selenarctos thibetanus north, 90 for east, 180 for south, and 270 for ussuricus Heude in South Korea west) and distance from roads (m) and water (m) from this raster map% and investigate the possibilities of restoration A Digitised Actual Vegetation map (i%e%, of the bear population, by supplementation, in Quercus mongolica community, Pinus densiflora Mt% Chiri National Park% community), which was produced by the Ministry of Environment, and a Forest Type map (including age of forest, average diameter of trees and the density of trees), produced by the Methods Forestry Service, were also converted to raster Study area format with a resolution of 50m in Arcview Mt% Chiri was designated as National Park No% 1 (version 2%0)% in 1967, and is located in the southern part of These raster maps were converted into an the Sobaek mountain range% It includes the se- ASCII format in Arcview and then converted cond highest peak in S% Korea (1 915 m) and is into TXT format for use in the Ramas/GIS the largest of the country’s National Parks (about program% 440 km2)% The past distribution of the Asiatic black Habitat requirements and bear and sites where traces have been found habitat suitability index map recently are shown in Figure 1% Mt% Chiri National I chose environmental factors for analysing hab- Park and Mt% Odae National Park are both located itat suitability by reviewing literature on the within the former range of the bears, and some Asiatic black bear and the American black bear of the recent observations of bear signs were (Torii et al% 1989, Reid et al% 1991, Clark et al% found within these areas% This study focused on 1993, Rudis et al% 1995, Mizoguchi et al% 1996, Mt% Chiri National Park and the adjacent area, Hashimoto and Takatsuki 1997)% The factors

151 CBM:s Skriftserie 3: MSc-theses 1999 chosen for use in the analysis were elevation, slo- Population Viability Analysis pe, aspect, distance from road and water, actual (PVA) Simulation vegetation, forest type, age of forest, average Ramas/GIS diameter of trees and density of trees% Ramas/GIS consists of 5 subprograms (Land- I collected absence and presence data for traces scape data, Habitat dynamics, Metapopulation of the Asiatic black in the Mt Chiri National Park% model, Sensitivity analysis, and Comparison of In total, I found 12 traces of bears (i%e% denning result) and combines spatial landscape data with site, bark scratches, broken branches) with the demographic data of a population into a help of local people who have been moni toring metapopulation model (Akçakaya 1998)% the traces of bears since 1995% I recorded the The landscape data program imports spatial geographical position of these traces using a data on the landscape (i%e% elevation, slope, aspect, portable GPS receiver (Model: Trimble Ensign vegetation etc%) and converts it into a habitat GPS) and subsequently used as locations for suitability map using the habitat suitability presence data% During the field survey, vegetation function% The landscape data program then type was recorded at each trace for comparison identifies habitat patches in the habitat suitability with a published map, which was converted% into map, within a given threshold habitat suitability a raster format% After locating each position on (HS) and a neighbourhood distance that may the raster map, environmental factors were then relate to the foraging distance of the species% recorded for each point% The metapopulation model program then The National Park Authority (Anon% 1998) combines the habitat patch map with the has identified and delineated 14 separate areas demographic data (i%e% survival rates, fecundity, within Mt% Chiri National Park where bear traces density dependence etc%)% Simulations of have been found% Additional data was then management alternatives then estimate the risk gathered based on this literature% I digitised the of extinction within a projected time (e%g% 100, boundary lines for these areas and set a 1 km 500 or 1000 years) or time to extinction etc% buffer area around these boundaries to prevent Simulation scenarios can include several levels of collection of absence data within 1 km of these poaching, population supplementation and areas% Next, a point was located in the center of natural catastrophes% Available literature on the each trace area and these points (14 in total) were black bear was reviewed and parameters, which added to the presence data set% For absence data, were used in the simulation, were estimated% Each 21 points were evenly placed outside the trace parameter had medium, lower and upper and buffer areas% No points were located far from estimates (medium +1/2SD)% The medium the National Park, since most of those areas are estimate, in this case, refers to the average value developed or used for agriculture% from those that have been reported in different Next, I analysed correlations between exi- studies and the SD (standard deviation) refers to stence data (absence and presence data) and en- the variation among different studies% vironmental factors% A Mann-Whitney U test was used for elevation, slope, aspect, distance from Identifying habitat patches road and water and existence data, and a Chi square After estimating a habitat suitability (HS) test for other factors% Then, a multiple logistic function, a threshold HS and a neighbourhood regression analysis was used to calculate a habitat distance were used for identifying habitat patches% suitability function% A significance level of p=0%05 I used a threshold HS of 0%5 (0%45 for lower and was used in both cases (correlation and logistic 0%55 for upper estimates) and a neighbourhood regression)% SPSS (version 8%0) was used for distance of 1697m (SD=1544), based on the statistical analysis% This habitat suitability available literature (Young and Ruff 1982, function was used in Ramas/GIS (version 3%0) Nozaki and Mizuno 1983, Ishida 1995)% This to predict the distribution of suitable habitat% means that bears can survive in areas where the

152 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea habitat suitability value is 0%5 or above and indi- Environmental stochasticity viduals move up to 1697m when foraging% Environmental stochasticity can affect the vital rates, carrying capacity and dispersal among Carrying capacity and initial abundance populations in the Ramas/GIS% I introduced I estimated the carrying capacity of the study area environmental stochasticity by using the standard based on the average bear density (0%664/km2, deviation of estimates in the stage matrix, so SD=0%838) that was reported in studies of the environmental stochasticity will affect only the Asiatic and American black bear (Lecount 1982, vital rates such as survival rates and fecundity%% Reid et al% 1991, Wang et al% 1994, Uh pers% comm% The three levels of environmental stochasticity 1999)% I assumed that these estimated densities were modelled by manipulating the standard reflected 80% of the carrying capacities% I used deviation matrix (abbreviated to S, 1/2S, and 1/ values of 100, 500 and 1000 for the carrying 3S)% At each time step during the simulation, the capacity in different simulations, as well as Ramas/GIS program chose a value for vital rates estimated values (78, 216 and 355 for lower, randomly from a distribution, which was limi- medium and upper estimates)% I interviewed local ted only by the average value and its standard people to estimate initial abundances% Values deviation (S)% between 3 and 13 were obtained, with 3, 5 and 13 being chosen for lower, medium and upper Density dependence and Allee effect estimates% I assumed a ceiling-allee model for all simulation scenarios% This means that each population will Stage structure grow exponentially in a stochastic way until it I modelled the dynamics using a stage-structured reaches the ceiling or carrying capacity% If the (juvenile and adult), stochastic matrix model% The population increases above the carrying capacity, parameter values (Table 1) in this model were it will be decreased back to, or below, the carrying based on the literature (Watanabe et al% 1976, capacity% But, if the population is much below Lecount 1982, Hellgren and Vaughan 1989, Wang the carrying capacity, it will then be affected by an et al% 1994, Powell et al% 1996)% The standard allee effect and drawn towards extinction% The deviation (variation among different studies) for allee effect was incorporated by setting a local each parameter was between 20 and 25 percentage extinction threshold of 10% of the carrying of the average value% This standard deviation was capacity% A subpopulation in the metapopulation used for simulating environmental stochasticity% that has fewer individuals than this threshold I assumed that one third of juveniles would will be considered extinct, but these individuals become breeding adults and that adult bears will be included in the total and will participate in would breed every other year% Thus, the period breeding% between litters would be two years, which is shorter than the 2%4 years that was chosen for a Poaching PVA of the Asiatic black bear in Taiwan (Wang et I assumed that poaching would take place al% 1994)% throughout the simulation period, of a constant

Table 1 Parameter value estimation for the stage matrix

Parameters Lower estimate Medium estimate

Juvenile fecundity Adult fecundity 0096 0405 0119 0503 Juvenile survival Adult survival 0590 0830 0665 0935 Population growth rate 1026 1074

153 CBM:s Skriftserie 3: MSc-theses 1999

Figure 2 Habitat suitability index map for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park proportion of the population, rather than a fix- Table 2% Every simulation for each scenario (sce- ed number of individuals% I examined the ef- nario and results are shown in Appendix 1, Ap- fects of poaching levels of 1% and 2% of the pendix 2 and Appendix 3) was replicated 500 population when the population growth rate was times and each replication projected the abun- 1%026, and 1%, 5% and 7% when the population dance of each population over 100 years% The growth rate was 1%074% Poaching was modelled upper estimate of population growth rate (λ) as a harvest in the Ramas/GIS program% was not employed in simulations, as in these cases, populations could grow more than 23% Supplementation per year% These populations would seldom go The objective of supplementation is to achieve a to extinction without severe poaching or cata- population with the same viability as a population strophes, which seems unrealistic% at its carrying capacity, even though the initial population size is small% Three scenarios of supplementation were considered, with releases of 1/2K, 1/4K and 1/10K bears respectively% Results Supplementation was simulated every year Habitat suitability index map during the first ten years% Thus, the actual Among the habitat variables, only elevation numbers of supplemented individuals were 11 (ELV), slope (SLP), distance from road (DRD) (1/2K), 5 (1/4K) and 2 (1/10K) per year when and actual vegetation (VEG) were significantly the carrying capacity was 216, and 25 (1/2K), 12 correlated with the absence and presence data of (1/4K) and 5 (1/10K) per year when the carrying bear traces% A logistic regression function with capacity was 500% Both juvenile and adult bears four variables (ELV, SLP, DRD and VEG) was were supplemented, corresponding to a stable highly significant (p=0%0001) and the predict- demographic distribution% ability was also very high% However, two of the Estimates of all parameters are shown in regression coefficients (SLP and DRD) were not

154 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

Table 2 Estimates of parameters used in the model (For the choice of parameters, shaded areas were taken together as one estimate and un-shaded cells was taken separately for each parameter Supplementation was simulated during the first ten years)

Estimates Parameter Lower Medium Upper

Threshold HS 045 050 055 Neighborhood distance (m) 92532 169689 246846 Dispersal distance (km) 9253 16969 24684 Density (individuals/km2) 0245 0664 1083 Carrying capacity 78 216 355 Initial abundance 3 5 13 Population growth rate 1026 1074 1234 Environmental stochasticity (Standard deviation matrix) 1/3S 1/2S 1S Poaching level 001 002/005 007 Supplementation level (No of individuals/year) (K=216/355/500) 2/3/5 5/9/12 11/18/25 statistically significant, so the DRD variable was P = 1-[1/{exp(ELV*00129+SLP*01919- excluded% The results of this logistic regression VEG*36730-143114)+1}] = HS analysis with three variables are summarised in A habitat suitability index (HSI) map based Table 3% on the HS is shown in Figure 2 and the HS his- The logistic regression function is highly togram is shown in Figure 3% Only 13%58% of significant (p=0%0001)% The predictability is also the total number of cells have a value greater very high (91%49%, cut value for presence is 0%5) than 0%50 and the average HS for the whole area and all regression coefficients are statistically is 0%15% Most of the suitable areas are concen- significant% trated inside the National Park but some areas The probability for the presence of bear with high HS values are situated outside the traces (habitat suitability) was calculated as: National Park boundary% Some of these areas are

Figure 3 Frequency distribution of habitat suitability for the Asiatic black bear in the Mt Chiri National Park area

155 CBM:s Skriftserie 3: MSc-theses 1999

Figure 4 Trajectory summary for a hypothetical Asiatic black bear population (K=355, Init abundance=13, population growth rate=10741, environmental stochasticity=1/3S; Appendix 1) connected to the National Park, while others are Without poaching and natural catastrophes isolated% (such as fire, flood or typhoon), the model pre- Using 0%5 as a threshold HS, three distinct dicted that a hypothetical Asian black bear popu- habitat patches were found% Total HS, carrying lation, initially at its carrying capacity, would have capacity (K) and area (km2) are shown in Table 4% a low risk of extinction (p<0%05), except if the Patch 2 covers the National Park and occupies carrying capacity and the population growth rate 95%46% of the total suitable area% Some areas, (λ) are both very low and the environmental sto- which are not part of the National Park but chasticity is high (K=78 and 100, population connected to it, are included in this patch% growth rate=1%0261, environmental stochas- ticity=S)% Other hypothetical populations with a Population Viability Analysis low initial abundance have a high risk of ex- In general, the model predicted that the risk of tinction, except if the carrying capacity and the extinction for a hypothetical Asiatic black bear population growth rate are very high and the population would be small when the carrying environmental stochasticity is very low (K>216, capacity (K) and the population growth rate (λ) population growth rate=1%0741, environmental are large and the environmental stochasticity is stochasticity=1/3S; Figure 6 and Appendix 1)% small, within the range between the lower and The effect of poaching was severe when the upper estimates used in this model (Figures 4 poaching level approached the value of the and 5)% population growth rate% When population growth was assumed to be 7%41% per year, Table 3 Results of logistic regression for a habitat poaching of 5% of the population caused a large suitability function with three variables effect on population viability% Even in a hypo- thetical population initially at its carrying capacity, Variables Reg SE Wald p the model predicted that this population would coefficient have a high risk of extinction when the poaching ELV 00129 00050 66817 00097 level was 7% (Figure 7)% Even with a lower SLP01919 00947 41074 00427 poaching level, the risk of extinction can be high VEG -36730 13822 70617 00079 for a population with a small carrying capacity Constant -143114 60016 56863 00171 and a low population growth rate (Appendix 2)%

156 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

Table 4 Summary of habitat patches (05 was used for threshold HS)

Patch Total HS Average K Area (km2) Percentage of Percentage of HS value the total the landscape suitable area

1 3104 075 9 103 398 054 2 82324 083 206 2479 9546 1296 3 393 068 1 15 056 008 Sum 85821 216 2597 100 1358

The model also predicted that the risk of habitat suitability function was not significant extinction for a hypothetical population with a statistically% As a result, habitat suitability does low initial abundance could be decreased by not reflect anthropogenic impacts on habitat% supplementation (Figure 8 and Appendix 3)% It Forest type, such as old growth forest, and water is possible to decrease the risk of extinction from resources that usually seem to be critical for the 0%46 to 0%001 by supplementing the population survival of wildlife, were not included in this with a number of individuals equivalent to a model% Only 12 of the 47 presence and absence quarter of the total carrying capacity (initial data points are based on personal observation, abundance=5, K=216, population growth with others taken from the literature% But, I still rate=1%0741, poaching=0%01, environmental obtained a statistically significant and highly pre- stochasticity=S; Appendix 3)% dictable (91%49 %) habitat suitability function% However, it would be useful to have more data, especially from field surveys, to develop a habi- Discussion and management tat function that incorporates natural environ- implications mental factors and anthropogenic factors% In this model, habitat suitability was a function All the data used in the population viability of elevation, actual vegetation and slope% Dis- analysis originated from literature on the tance from the road was correlated with the exis- American black bear and the Asiatic black bear in tence of bear traces but it was excluded, since the Japan, China and Taiwan% Thus, the data included

Figure 5 Comparison of extinction risks for a hypothetical Asiatic black bear population (init abundance=K, population growth rate=10261 and 10741, environmental stochasticity = S; Appendix 1)

157 CBM:s Skriftserie 3: MSc-theses 1999

Figure 6 Comparison of interval extinction risk between two hypothetical populations (K=216, init abundance=5 and 216, population growth rate=10261, environmental stochasticity = 1/3S; Appendix 1) a wide range of different habitats, subspecies and estimated% even species% Future field surveys on this specific Shaffer (1981) suggested that systematic bear population would be helpful in improving pressures and stochastic perturbations, such as this model% demographic stochasticity, genetic stochasticity, The carrying capacity of the Mt% Chiri area environmental stochasticity and natural cata- can be calculated directly as a function of habitat strophes, contribute to the extinction process of suitability, or from the density of bears per unit a species% area% I used the latter method, but limited the In this population viability analysis, I only area to the suitable habitat as predicted by the considered demographic stochasticity, en- habitat suitability function% But the density, which vironmental stochasticity and poaching as a was used for calculating the carrying capacity, per- systematic pressure% So, the risk of extinction as tained to total area rather than just suitable area% shown in this analysis, might be an under- Thus, actual carrying capacity may be under- estimate% In spite of these limitations, it was

Figure 7 Comparison of interval extinction risk between four hypothetical populations with different poaching levels (K=355, init abundance=355, population growth rate=10741, environmental stochasticity = S; Appendix 2)

158 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

Figure 8 Comparison of interval extinction risk of supplemented hypothetical populations (K=216, init abundance=5, population growth rate=10261, poaching=001, environmental stochasticity=1/2S; Appendix 3) generally predicted, within a range of parameters chasticity and environmental stochasticity, should values, that the risk of extinction for a hypo- also be highlighted for species conservation% thetical Asiatic black bear population would Akçakaya and Atwood (1997) suggest two decrease with a relatively high population growth practical uses of this model% One is that rate (λ), low environmental stochasticity and a sensitivity analysis can give information about large carrying capacity and initial abundance% which parameters need to be more carefully Franklin (1980) proposed that a genetically estimated, and through this careful estimation effective population size of 500 could be enough the model can be continuously improved by to maintain sufficient genetic variability to adapt incorporating new data% Shaffer (1981) also to changing environmental conditions, and a suggested that if the information for the genetically effective population size of 50 could simulation is gathered over a long period time, it be enough to maintain short-term fitness% This is possible to ensure that it is representative of means that population size should be more than the full range of conditions that the population 150-500 individuals to sustain short-term fitness% is subject to and the simulation will provide a But results from the present study show that a more realistic alternative to population viability population size of 500 or 1000 is not enough if analysis% Other studies suggest, based on a this is combined with high environmental sensitivity analysis, that adult survival, especially stochasticity, low population growth rate and a female, is critical and insist that increased adult high level of poaching% This theoretical popu- survival should be a principal management ob- lation would then go extinct% This indicates that jective (Powell et al% 1996, Wiegand et al% 1998)% to attain sufficiency and long-term survival, The other use of the model is to rank manage- population size should be larger and there may ment options in terms of the predicted effect on be a need to connect isolated populations to other the viability of the target species% Since it is not areas with suitable bear habitat to promote always possible to experiment with a species, es- geneflow% These genetic aspects are very im- pecially when considering large or rare animals, a portant for small populations, but other factors, population viability model can be an effective such as systematic pressures, demographic sto- alternative for predicting the effect of manage-

159 CBM:s Skriftserie 3: MSc-theses 1999 ment options and aid decision making% I would like to thank Dr Uhshin Lee for provi- In conclusion, the population viability ding me with precious articles on the Japanese black analysis of a hypothetical Asiatic black bear bear, the local community in Kurye for helping me population in the Mt% Chiri National Park area during the field survey and providing me with infor- raises two points% Firstly, Mt% Chiri National Park mation on bears, and Sanghee Shin for helping me can support a viable bear population in a with GIS database processing demographic sense, though it is probably insufficient for long-term survival in a genetic sense% This condition might be improved by enlarging the National Park to support more References individuals, or connecting it with other popu- Akçakaya, H R 1998 RAMAS GIS: Linking lations to promote gene flow% Secondly, a viable landscape data with population viability analysis bear population, in a demographic sense, may (version 30) – Applied Biomathematics be restored through supplementation% Results Setauket, New York from a population viability analysis show that a Akçakaya, H R and Atwood, J 1997 A Habitat- few supplemented individuals can possibly Based Metapopulation Model of the California make a significant difference% Gnatcatcher – Conservation Biology 11: 422– 434 According to this model, the management Anonymous 1998 Surveying the wildlife ecosystem of a bear population should be aimed at main- in Mt Chiri National Park – National Park taining a high population growth rate and con- Authority pp 13–22 In Korean trolling poaching to a level much less than the Bunnell, F L and Tait, D E N 1981 Population population growth rate% Other studies suggest Dynamics of Bears – Implications – In: Smith, that female adult survival is critical to maintain a T D and Fowler, C (eds), Dynamics of large high population growth rate and insist it should mammal populations John Wiley and Sons New be a primary management objective (Powell et York al% 1996, Wiegand et al% 1998)% Clark, J D, Dunn, J E and Smith, K G 1993 A multivariate model of female black bear habitat I suggest that the poaching of adult bears use for a geographic information system – J should be strictly prohibited% A public awareness Wildl Manage 57: 519–526 or environmental education program could be Ellerman, J R and Morrison–Scott, T C S 1968 an effective way of preventing poaching% The Checklist of Palaeartic and Indian Mammals enhancement of suitable habitat within the 1758 to 1946 – Trustees of the British Museum National Park may be another option, primarily (Natural History) London by decreasing human access to suitable bear Franklin, I R 1980 Evolutionary change in small habitat and eliminating roads% Some areas of populations – In: Soulé, M E and Wilcox, B high suitability are found outside the National A (eds), Conservation biology: an evolu- tionary–ecological perspective Sinauer, Park, but still connected to it, and I suggest that Sunderland, MA, pp 135–150 these areas should be included in the National Hashimoto, Y and Takatsuki, S 1997 Food habits Park% of Japanese black bear: A review – Honyurui Kagaku 37: 1–19 In Japanese with English Acknowledgements – I am deeply grateful to Torbjörn summary Ebenhard and Tong-Mahn Ahn for leading me to Hellgren, E C and Vaughan, M R 1989 Demo- this subject and for their supervision, Staffan graphic analysis of a black bear population in Ulfstrand, Lennart Hansson, Henrik Andrén and the Great Dismal Swamp – J Wildl Manage Linus Svensson for their constructive comments 53: 969–977 on an earlier manuscript, Thomas Elmqvist and Horino, S I and Miura, S 1997 Population model Börge Pettersson for encouraging me in this project, and its application in wildlife management – and the Swedish Biodiversity Centre for funding Japanese Journal of Ecology 47: 189–191 In this research Japanese

160 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

Ishida, K 1995 Life history and food habit of Possingham, H P and Davies, I 1995 Alex: a model Japanese black bear – Honyurui Kagaku 35: for the viability analysis of spatially structured 71–78 In Japanese populations – Biological conservation 73: 143– Layman, S T and Barrett, R H 1986 Developing 150 and testing habitat–capability models: Pitfalls Powell, R A, Zimmerman, J D, Seaman, D E and recommendations – In: Verner, J, Morrison, and Gillam, J F 1996 Demographic analyses ML and Ralph, C J (eds), Wildlife 2000 of a hunted black bear population with access Modelling habitat relationships of terrestrial to a refuge – Conservation Biology 10: 224– vertebrates The University of Wisconsin Press 234 Lecount, AL 1982 Characteristics of a central Reid, D, Jiang, M, Teng, Q, Qin, Z and Hu, J Arizona black bear population – J Wildl 1991 Ecology of the Asiatic black bear in Manage 46: 861–867 Sichuan, China – Mammalia 55: 221–238 Lee, I K, Kim, K J, Cho, J M, Lee, DW, Cho, D Rudis, V A, and J B Tansey 1995 Regional S and Yu, J S 1994 Biodiversity Korea to assessment of remote forests and black bear 2000 – Mineumsa Seoul In Korean habitat from forest resource surveys – J Wildl Liu, X and Xiano, Q 1986 Age composition, sex Manage 59: 170–180 ratio and reproduction of bears in Heilongjiang Schooley, R L, Mclaughlin, C R, Matula, Jr G J, Province, China – Acta theriologica sinica 6: and Krohn, W B 1994 Denning chronology 161–170 abstract only seen In Chinese with of female black bears: Effects of food, weather, English summary and reproduction – Journal of Mammalogy 75: Ma, Y 1986 The distribution and the changing trends 466–477 of bear resources in Heilongjiang province Servheen, C 1989 The status and conservation of (China) in the last ten years – Acta theriologica the bears of the world – 8th International sinica 6: 89–92 abstract only seen In Chinese Conference on Bear Research and Management, with English summary Victoria, British Columbia, Canada Mizoguchi, N, Katayama, A, Tsubota, T and Shaffer, M L 1981 Minimum population sizes for Komiyama, A 1996 Effect of yearly fluc- species conservation – Bioscience 3: 131–134 tuations in beechnut production on food habits Shaffer, M L 1990 Population viability analysis – of Japanese black bear – Honyurui Kagaku 36: Conservation biology 4: 39–40 33–44 In Japanese Torii, H 1975 Japanese black bear in the upper Mizuno, A, Hanai, M, Ogawa, I and Watanabe, H stream region of the Ooi river – A natural 1972 A trial of radio–tracking of Japanese history of the upper stream region of the Ooi black bear – Bulletin of the Kyoto University river, Japan pp 56–60 In Japanese with English Forests 43: 1–8 In Japanese with English summary summary Torii, H 1989 Food habits of the Japanese black Norton, TW 1995 Introduction – Biological bear in the headwaters of the Ohwi River – conservation 73:91 Journal of the Japanese Forestry Society 71: Nozaki, E, and A Mizuno 1983 Home range and 417–420 in Japanese with English summary daily activity of Japanese black bear – A bio– Torii, H 1989 Home ranges of radio–tracked telemetrical study in the Ozo valley – Bulletin Japanese black bear (Selenarctos thibetanus) in of the Hakusan Nature Conservation Center 9: the upper stream region of Ohwi river, central 77–83 In Japanese Japan – Bulletin of Shizuoka prefecture Nozaki, E, Furubayashi, K, Maruyama, N, Tokia, forestry technology center 17: 79–83 In K and Toyke, Y 1979 Distribution of Japanese Japanese with English summary black bear in Kanto district – by the questionnaire Torii, H, Maruyama, N, Nozaki, E, Watanabe, H and interview methods – The Journal of the and Furubayashi, K 1981 Radio–tracking of Mammalogical Society of Japan 8: 14–32 in Japanese Black Bears in Omote–Nikko, Tochi Japanese prefecture – The Journal of the Mammalogical Oli, M K, Jocobson, H A and Leopold, B D 1997 Society of Japan 8: 191–193 in Japanese with Denning ecology of black bear in the white river English summary national wildlife refuge, Arkansas – J Wildl Wang, Y, Chu, S and Seal, S (eds), 1994 Asiatic Manage 61: 700–706 black bear population and habitat viability

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assessment workshop report – Taipei Zoo, Taipei, Taiwan Conservation Breeding Spe- cialist Group CBSG/SSC/IUCN Watanabe, H 1980 Damage to conifers by the Japanese black bear – In: Martinka, CJ and McArthur, K L (eds), Bear, their biology and management Bear biology association confe- rence series 3: 67–70 Watanabe, H and Komiyama, A 1976 Conser- vation of wild bears and control of its damage to forest trees (II) – Bulletin of the Kyoto University Forests No 48 (Reprint) In Japanese Wiegand, T, J Naves, Stephan, T and Fernadez, A 1998 Assessing the risk of extinction for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in the Cordillera Cantabrica, Spain – Ecological Monographs 68: 539–570 Young, BF, and Ruff, R L 1982 Population dynamics and movements of black bears in east central Alberta – J Wildl Manage 46: 845– 860 Yowata, MA 1994 Conservation and management of the Asiatic black bear in Japan forest – Forest Science 11: 32–42 In Japanese

162 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea

Appendix 1 Probability of extinction of a hypothetical Asiatic black bear population without poaching and supplementation

K Population Initial Environmental stochasticity growth rate abundance 1/3S 1/2S S

78 10261 3 069 074 085 78 10741 3 051 051 063 78 10261 78 001 003 030 78 10741 78 000 000 003

100 10261 3 069 074 081 100 10741 3 050 033 047 100 10261 100 001 001 020 100 10741 100 000 000 001

216 10261 5 051 061 074 216 10741 5 005 015 029 216 10261 216 000 000 011 216 10741 216 000 000 000

355 10261 13 025 032 059 355 10741 13 001 007 017 355 10261 355 000 000 005 355 10741 355 000 000 000

500 10261 13 025 032 057 500 10741 13 001 007 016 500 10261 500 000 000 005 500 10741 500 000 000 000

1000 10261 13 032 040 059 1000 10741 13 000 009 018 1000 10261 1000 000 000 003 1000 10741 1000 000 000 000

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Appendix 2 Probability of extinction of a hypothetical Asiatic black bear population an initial abundance of K and poaching levels of 001 and 002 (when population growth rate = 1026) and 001, 005 and 007 (when population growth rate = 1074)

K Population Poaching Environmental stochasticity growth rate 1/3S 1/2S S

78 10261 001 000 002 032 78 10261 002 003 007 033 78 10741 001 000 000 003 78 10741 005 001 001 013 78 10741 007 002 007 024

100 10261 001 000 001 023 100 10261 002 002 004 027 100 10741 001 000 000 002 100 10741 005 000 000 010 100 10741 007 001 002 023

216 10261 001 000 000 014 216 10261 002 000 000 019 216 10741 001 000 000 000 216 10741 005 000 000 003 216 10741 007 000 001 007

355 10261 001 000 000 009 355 10261 002 000 000 017 355 10741 001 000 000 000 355 10741 005 000 000 004 355 10741 007 000 000 013

500 10261 001 000 000 007 500 10261 002 000 000 011 500 10741 001 000 000 000 500 10741 005 000 000 002 500 10741 007 000 000 009

164 Park: Habitat-based population viability analysis for the Asiatic black bear in Mt Chiri National Park, Korea 005 019 006 021 011 027 046 nmental stochasticity, nmental and stochasticity, 009015017 017024 030 049 019 035 061 027 035 059 030 039 059 008014 007021 014 034 024 031 054 027 033 055 006015 007 011 034 015 020 046 006 023008 032 051 060 073 057 060 078 005 020 017 026 047 002 004 000 000 001 002 000 001 001 002 001 000 000 001 002 001 002 Environmental stochasticity 005 016 020 010 010 018 013 008 011 008 000 001 001 002 001 001 000 001 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 009 016 007 009 010 009 006 008 005 1/2K 1/4K 1/10K No 000 000 003 000 000 1/3S 1/2S S000 000 1/3S 1/2S S 1/3S 1/2S S 1/3S 1/2S S 000 000 000 000 000000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001 000 000 000 002 000 000 003 000 000 003 000 001 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 001 000 000 001 000 000 003 000 000 000 000 oaching Supplementation abundance growth rate Initial Population P 216 5 10741 005 216 5 10261 001 216216 5216 5355 5355 10261355 13 10741 13 002 13 10741 001 10261 007 10261 10741 001 002 001 355 13 10741 005 355500 13500500 13 13 10741 13 10261 007 10261 10741 001 002 001 500 13 10741 005 500 13 10741 007 capacity supplementation Carrying Appendix 3 Probability of extinction of a hypothetical Asiatic black bear population with different levels of poaching, enviro

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168