Iron Dome Protection: Missile Defense in Israel's Security Concept

Iron Dome Protection: Missile Defense in Israel’s Security Concept

Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant

The limited number of Israeli civilian casualties in the latest round of warfare !"#!!$%&'()!*%)$+%,)-)'%#)'%)""(. /"!+%.$%"0!%-).$%"1%"0!%(!-)(2) *!% 3!(41(-)$5!%14%"0!%&(1$%61-!%)$".7-.''.*!%'0.!*+8%9551(+.$:%"1%[:/(!'% (!*!)'!+% <%&'()!*.%+!4!$'!%14[5.)*'=%&(1$%61-!%)50.!>!+%)%'/55!''%()"!%14% approximately 90 3!(5!$"%.$%.$"!(5!3".$:%(152!"'%[(!+%)"%&'()!*R'%(!'.+!$".)*% areas. This was an improvement in its performance over Operation Pillar of 6!4!$'!%.$%@1>!- !(%ABCA=%#0!$%[:/(!'%'01#!+%"0)"%"0!%&(1$%61-!%'<'"!-% 0)+%)$%.$"!(5!3".1$%()"!%14%DE%3!(5!$"8 C%,1#!>!(=%&(1$%61-!%.'%/$) *!%"1% provide an effective response to the short range rockets and mortar rounds [(!+%)"%&'()!*.%51--/$.".!'% 1(+!(.$:%F)G)8%&'()!*%.'%$1#%#1(2.$:%1$%)%$!#% rocket and mortar defense system, known as Iron Beam, which is designed to address this threat. The system utilizes lasers to shoot down short range threats such as mortar rounds. 2

Iron Dome Performance: Critique and Response Despite Israel’s data regarding the performance of the Iron Dome system, '1-!%'3!5.)*.'"'%.$%"0!%[!*+%0)>!%+1/ "!+%"0!%0.:0%()"!%14%.$"!(5!3".1$'8% Theodore Postol of MIT, a controversial critic of missile defense systems, claims that a detailed analysis of photographs of interceptor contrails during Operation Pillar of Defense demonstrates that the interceptor rate was as low )'%H%3!(5!$"=%#."0%*.""*!%.-3(1>!-!$"%+/(.$:%I3!()".1$%J(1"!5".>!%K+:!8%,!% claims that successful interception would require the rocket to be approached head-on, whereas photographs of Iron Dome contrails appear to show that this has not occurred. Furthermore, he attributes low casualties from ,)-)'%(152!"'%"1%&'()!*.%5.>.*%+!4!$'!%3(!3)()".1$'%'/50%)'%!)(*<%#)($.$:'% 38 I Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant

)$+%'0!*"!('8%9551(+.$:%"1%J1'"1*=%"0!(!%.'%$1%3/ *.5%!>.+!$5!%"1%'01#%"0)"% Iron Dome is performing at an interception rate of 90 percent. 3 Postol’s +.'-.'')*%14%"0!%&6L%[$+.$:'%1$%&(1$%61-!R'%()"!%14%.$"!(5!3".1$%.'%'1-!#0)"% puzzling, especially since in the past he has shown a readiness to rely on the 51$5*/'.1$'%14%&'()!*.%+!4!$'!%14[5.)*'%#0!$%"0!<%51((!'31$+%#."0%0.'%1#$% "0.$2.$:8%&$%"0!%#)2!%14%"0!%CMMC%F/*4%N)(=%41(%!O)-3*!=%J1'"1*%!$+1('!+% "0!%[$+.$:'%14%"0!%&'()!*.%-.*.")(<%"0)"%'01#!+%"0)"%"0!%J)"(.1"%)$".7-.''.*!% '<'"!-%+.+%$1"%144!(%)++.".1$)*%'!5/(."<%41(%&'()!*%)4"!(%&()P% !:)$%[(.$:%Q5/+% missiles. E%I"0!(%'2!3".5'%'/50%)'%R.50)(+%S8%T*1<+%'/::!'"%"0)"%&(1$%61-!% 0)'% !!$%) *!%"1%+!'"(1<%$1%-1(!%"0)$%EB%3!(5!$"%14%.$51-.$:%#)(0!)+'8 5 While lower than the interception rate reported by the IDF, this number is '".**%51$'.+!() *<%0.:0!(%"0)$%"0!%[:/(!%'/::!'"!+% <%J1'"1*8% Subrata Ghoshroy, also from MIT, presents a more nuanced perspective on Iron Dome’s performance. Unlike Postol, Ghoshroy suggests that once detailed information on the performance of Iron Dome becomes more accessible, the missile defense system may in time be viewed as “a step 41(#)(+%.$%+!4!$'!%'<'"!-'%14%."'%"<3!8P%9"%3(!'!$"=%"0!%*)52%14%51-3(!0!$'.>!% +)")%1$%&(1$%61-!%.$"!(5!3".1$'%-!)$'%"0)"%1/"'.+!%1 '!(>!('%0)>!%+.4[5/*"<% in evaluating the performance of the Israeli system. Moreover, even if Iron 61-!%'/55!!+!+%.$%.$"!(5!3".$:%)(1/$+%MB%3!(5!$"%14%"0!%,)-)'%(152!"'=% this does not necessarily mean that Israel’s other missile defense systems '/50%)'%6)>.+R'%Q*.$:%)$+%9((1#%#.**%3!(41(-%)'%!44!5".>!*<8 6 The point is instructive given that during Operation Protective Edge, many of the interceptors were not utilized since Iron Dome was able to detect that a large proportion of the rockets would not reach urban centers. In the event "0)"%&'()!*%#!(!%"1%4)5!%)%#)(%1$%'!>!()*%4(1$"'=%#."0%!$!-.!'%[(.$:%-)$<% hundreds of ballistic missiles a day, including missiles such as the Iranian Q0!0) %)$+%Q!V.*%-1+!*'=%&'()!*R'%9((1#%'<'"!-%#1/*+% !%(!P/.(!+%"1%/".*.G!% a larger number of interceptors with the attendant risk that the system is saturated and therefore unable to perform as effectively. W Precise data on Iron Dome performance from the IDF is still lacking, D but Israelis certainly do not doubt the success of the defensive system. Indeed, it quickly became the overwhelming success story of the operation, and -)$<%3!13*!%#."$!''!+%)$+%+15/-!$"!+%.$"!(5!3".1$'%[('"%0)$+8%X0!%-.+7 atmosphere explosions during many rocket barrages became familiar sights, and whether Iron Dome hit the incoming rockets head-on (detonating the warhead) or from the side, the rockets did not reach their civilian targets. Iron Dome Protection: Missile Defense in Israel’s Security Concept I 39

&(1$.5)**<=%"0!%'/55!''%14%"0!%'<'"!-%#)'%)4[(-!+% <%"0!% .G)((!%)55/')".1$% 0/(*!+%)"%&'()!*% <%"0!%1/":1.$:%Y@%,.:0%Z1--.''.1$!(%41(%,/-)$%R.:0"'=% @)>.%J.**)<=%#0!(! <%&'()!*%#)'%:/.*"<%14%$1"%'0)(.$:%&(1$%61-!%#."0%,)-)'% in order to protect Palestinian civilians. 9%9'%"1%J1'"1*R'%.+!)%"0)"%*1#%5.>.*.)$% casualties were due to other defensive measures, he provides no explanation for the very minimal damage to property as well. &$+!!+=%)%51-3)(.'1$%14%+)")%4(1-%"0!%Q!51$+%T! )$1$%N)(%14%ABB[% (when the Iron Dome system was not in place) and Operation Protective K+:!%'01#'%"0)"%"0)"%.$%ABB[=%'1-!%EBBB%,.G 1**)0%(152!"'%0."%&'()!*=% resulting in the deaths of 53 Israelis, CB whereas during Operation Protective K+:!=%)"%*!)'"%\\[B%(152!"'%#!(!%[(!+%4(1-%F)G)= CC with two Israelis killed 4(1-%"0!%(152!"%[(!8%S1(!1>!(=%.$%ABB[%"0!(!%#!(!%\B=BBB%.$'/()$5!%5*).-'% for damage (each rocket generated around seven damage claims), while +/(.$:%"0!%F)G)%#)(%14%ABCE%])'%14%Q!3"!- !(%\=%ABCE^=%)33(1O.-)"!*<% AEBB%5*).-'%#!(!%[*!+%]*!''%"0)$%1$!%5*).-%3!(%(152!"^8 CA Critics of the Iron 61-!%'<'"!-%#.**%$!!+%"1%)551/$"%41(%"0!%'.:$.[5)$"*<%0.:0!(%()"!%14%5.>.*.)$% casualties and insurance claims during the 2006 war when Iron Dome was not in operation. The claim that the low civilian casualties during Operation Protective Edge were a result of civil defense measures is not persuasive, since these measures also applied in 2006 when many more were killed from similar types of rockets. C\

!"!#$%&!'(!)$*+!$'%#',$+)!-R$'/!0*+%12'34%#5%#6 What does all of this mean for the defensive pillar in Israel’s security doctrine, '3!5.[5)**<%#."0%(!:)(+%"1%"0!% !'"%-!)$'%"1%51$4(1$"%(152!"=%-.''.*!=%)$+% nonconventional threats? Traditionally, Israeli military planners have favored +!>!*13.$:%\!O. *!%144!$'.>!%5)3) .*.".!'%"1%+!)*%#."0%*1$:%"!(-%'"()"!:.5% threats. Moreover, technological uncertainties surrounding the development )$+%+!3*1<-!$"%14%"0!%9((1#% )**.'".5%-.''.*!%+!4!$'!%'<'"!-%)$+%."'%0.:0% cost were commonly cited objections to its development. Nevertheless, +/(.$:%"0!%CMDB'=%.$%"0!%4)5!%14%[!(5!%1331'.".1$% <%"0!%&6L=%"0!$76!4!$'!% S.$.'"!(%`."G0)2%R) .$%)33(1>!+%"0!%+!>!*13-!$"%14%"0!%9((1#=%)$+%"1+)<% the balance is moving increasingly toward defensive capabilities. CE Missile and rocket defense has become a crucial element of Israel’s approach in defending the country, alongside offensive capabilities and passive defense. Israel is developing multiple layers of missile defense to face the (.'.$:%"0(!)"'%14% )**.'".5%-.''.*!'%)$+%(152!"'%4(1-%T! )$1$=%Q<(.)=%)$+%&()$8% 40 I Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant

In the coming years, it is likely that Israel will develop an integrated system that will cover the entire country to address multiple threats, activating the +.44!(!$"%'<'"!-'%.$%"0!%-1'"%!4[5.!$"%)$+%51'"7!44!5".>!%-)$$!(8 CH The late Reuven Pedatzur, an Israeli defense specialist, argued against defense systems due to their inability to provide adequate protection in the face of nuclear threats. If but one nuclear missile were to penetrate the system )$+%0."%X!*%9>.>=%"0!%51$'!P/!$5!'=%0!%)(:/!+=%#1/*+% !%/$ !)() *!%41(%&'()!*% M%"0!(!41(!=%"1% !%!44!5".>!=%"0!%9((1#%-.''.*!%+!4!$'!%'<'"!-%#1/*+%0)>!% to provide hermetic protection, which it cannot. Moreover, Pedatzur viewed development of defensive measures as an Israeli message to its enemies that it was preparing to defend itself against a nuclear attack, rather than relying on its deterrence to ward off the prospect of such an attack. By sending the wrong signal to Iran, Israel would in effect be damaging its own deterrent image, projecting that its deterrence is less than robust. C[ ,1#!>!(=%"0.'%0)'%$1"% !!$%"0!%3(!+1-.$)$"%*.$!%14%"0.$2.$:b%()"0!(=%"0!% model whereby deterrence is actually reinforced by defense has been adopted <%&'()!*R'%-.*.")(<%3*)$$!('=%)'%."%0)'% !!$% <%"0!%Y$."!+%Q")"!'%)$+%@9XI8% Uzi Rubin, a leading Israeli defense expert and a former director of Israel’s missile defense organization, has a take on deterrence that diverges from Pedatzur’s Cold War thinking. Deterrence against nuclear threats relies on )%'/(>.>) *!%(!")*.)"1(<%41(5!=%)$+%'/(>.>) .*."<%(!P/.(!'%"0)"%)%'/4[5.!$"% number of retaliatory forces are still operational after an initial attack. This is where missile defense comes into the picture. Rubin concludes that while missile defenses cannot provide a hermetic shield against ballistic missiles, !>!$%)%3)(".)**<%'/55!''4/*%-.''.*!%'0.!*+%5)$%'.:$.[5)$"*<%51-3*.5)"!%"0!% planning of an adversary. CW

7*8-%0'(99:')#:';-!<%8%-%12'"9+' !0%$%9#'()5!+$ 9++.".1$)*% !$!["'%14%-.''.*!%+!4!$'!%'<'"!-'%(!*)"!%"1%"0!%3/ *.5%-11+8% Critics of Iron Dome have overlooked the positive impact that successful missile defense has had on Israeli national morale, and its contribution to strengthening public resolve in a war situation. This is borne out by the very positive response of the Israeli public to the Iron Dome system’s success in .$"!(5!3".$:%-.''.*!'%4(1-%F)G)=% 1"0%.$%ABCA CD %)$+%ABCE8% J/ *.5%-11+%5)$%"()$'*)"!%.$"1%51$5(!"!%'"()"!:.5% !$!["'8%&$%I3!()".1$% Protective Edge, the public’s sense of protection by Iron Dome gave time and space for the government to make calculated decisions on how to proceed in Iron Dome Protection: Missile Defense in Israel’s Security Concept I 41

(!'31$'!%"1%"0!%(152!"%[(!=%#0.*!%(!+/5.$:%"0!%3(!''/(!%"1%-1>!%P/.52*<%"1%)% :(1/$+%144!$'.>!%.$%F)G)8%N0!$%"0!%+!5.'.1$%#)'%[$)**<%")2!$%"1%51$+/5"%)% ground operation, it was not directly linked to the rocket attacks, but rather "1%"0!%!441("'% <%,)-)'%"1%.$[*"()"!%.$"1%&'()!*%"0(1/:0%"0!%$/-!(1/'%)"")52% tunnels. On the more negative side, Israel’s success in limiting civilian casualties has been cynically turned against it in the international debate by those who have accused Israel of a disproportionate response. T!''1$'%4(1-%I3!()".1$%J(1"!5".>!%K+:!%)(!%.$'"(/5".>!%)'%&'()!*.%-.*.")(<% planners place increasing emphasis on the development of defensive capabilities in facing missile and strategic threats from Israel’s enemies. No serious military expert would claim that missile defense systems are able to provide hermetic protection, but missile defenses do create conditions for enhanced freedom of action for decision makers – defense systems ensure that they have time, and are not compelled to resort automatically to pre- emption and retaliation. CM Missile defense systems give political leaders various options, and provide time for diplomacy to work. This may help to explain why the United States has invested vast sums of money in Israel’s various defense systems. It is not just about protecting the Israeli public, but also about enhancing stability and deescalation efforts.

Notes C% 9-1'%,)(!*=%O&(1$%61-!%R)52'%Y3%MB%d%Q/55!''%R)"!%Q1%L)(=P% Haaretz , July 9, ABCE=%0""3eff###80))(!"G851-f$!#'f+.3*1-)5<7+!4!$'!fC8[BEB\M8 A% `))21>%T)33.$=%O&'()!*.%&(1$%g!)-%T)'!(%9.(%6!4!$'!%Q<'"!-%Rg(.$:'%61#$% S1(")('%T.2!%L*.!'R%Z(!)"1(%Q)<'= ” Jerusalem Post =%93(.*%A=%ABCE8 \% X0!1+1(!%98%J1'"1*=%OX0!%K>.+!$5!%"0)"%Q01#'%&(1$%61-!%.'%$1"%N1(2.$:=P% Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists =%h/*<%CM=%ABCE8 E% J)"(.52%K8%X<*!(=%O94"!(%"0!%N)(b%6.+%J)"(.1"%S.''.*!'%N1(2i%@1"%Q1%N!**=%Q5.!$".'"'% Say,” New York Times =%93(.*%CW=%CMMC8% H% N.**.)-%h8%g(1)+=%ON!)31$'%KO3!("'%R).'!%61/ "'%9 1/"%&'()!*R'%9$".-.''.*!% System,” International New York Times =%S)(50%AB=%ABC\8 [% Q/ ()")%F01'0(1<=%O&(1$%61-!e%g!0.$+%"0!%,113*)=%)%L)-.*.)(%Q"1(<%14%S.''.*!7 6!4!$'!%,<3!=P% Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists =%6!5!- !(%C\=%ABCA8 W% @)"0)$%L)( !(=%O&'%"0!%Q")"!%14%&'()!*%Q)4!%4(1-%S.''.*!'%)$+%R152!"'iP% Magen Laoref =%Q!3"!- !(%\B=%ABC\=% http://www.magenlaoref.org.il/doesIsraelsafe.pdf; Yossi Melman, “Israel’s Missile Defense System Could Crumble at the Moment of Truth,” Jerusalem Post =%I5"1 !(%A[=%ABC\8 D% X0!%-1'"%(!5!$"%+)")%)'%14%#(.".$:%.'%4(1-%)4"!(%$.$!%+)<'%14%"0!%13!()".1$=%#0!$% "0!%&6L%3/"%"0!%'/55!''%()"!%)"%D[%3!(5!$"e%Q!!%h!(!-<%g.$$.!=%O&6L%R!*!)'!'%&(1$% Dome Interception Rate,” !"#$%&'R)#*+, =%h/*<%AB=%ABCE=% http://www.janes.com/ )(".5*!fEBME\f.+47(!*!)'!'7.(1$7+1-!7.$"!(5!3".1$7()"!8 42 I Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant

9 For the report on this see: http://www.breitbart.com fg.:7J!)5!fABCEfBWf\CfY@7 Z1$+!-$'7&'()!*7'7T)"!'"7N)(7Z(.-!7@1"7Q0)(.$:7&(1$761-!7#."07,)-)' . CB% YG.%R/ .$=%OX0!%R152!"%Z)-3).:$%):).$'"%&'()!*%+/(.$:%"0!%ABB[%T! )$1$%N)(=P% Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies =%g)(7&*)$%Y$.>!('."<=%h/$!%ABBW=%338%CB7 CE8 CC% OI3!()".1$%J(1"!5".>!%K+:!%g<%"0!%@/- !('=P%&6L%#! '."!=%9/:/'"%H=%ABCE=% % 0""3eff###8.+4 *1:851-f *1:fABCEfBDfBHf13!()".1$73(1"!5".>!7!+:!7$/- !('f8 CA% YG.%R/ .$=%O&'()!*.%9.(%6!4!$'!=P%J(!'!$")".1$%"1%YQ%9.(%L1(5!%9''15.)".1$=% Q!3"!- !(%CA=%ABCE=%0""3eff###857'3)$81(:f>.+!1fi\ACEH\7Cf+.'5/''.1$7.'()!*.7 air-defense. C\% & .+8 CE% K4().-%&$ )(=% -%./&#%&0# )1%'2R)#3%4/5&%2#"'671/48 (Washington, DC: Woodrow N.*'1$%Z!$"!(%J(!''=%CMMM^=%38%W[8%Q!!%)*'1e%YG.%R/ .$=%O&'()!*R'%Q01("7R)$:!%S.''.*!% 6!4!$'!%.$%95".1$P%])/+.1^=%Z)($!:.!%K$+1#-!$"%41(%&$"!($)".1$)*%J!)5!=%Q!3"!- !(% CB=%ABC\b%YG.%9()+=%3(!'!$")".1$%)"%&@QQ%51$4!(!$5!%OZ1-3*!O%@1$51$>!$".1$)*% 6!"!((!$5!%KP/)".1$'=P%S)<%AA=%ABCE8 CH% `))21>%9-.+(1(=%OS.''.*!%6!4!$'!e%9$%&'()!*.%J!('3!5".>!=P%3(!'!$")".1$%)"%&@QQ% 51$4!(!$5!%OS.''.*!%6!4!$'!e%9''!"%1(%T.) .*."<%41(%R!:.1$)*%)$+%&$"!($)".1$)*% Q") .*."<=P%h)$/)(<%CH=%ABCE8 C[% R!/>!$%J!+)"G/(=%O,1#%S.''.*!%6!4!$'!%Y$+!(-.$!'%6!"!((!$5!e%X0!%&'()!*.% Z)'!=P%3(!'!$")".1$%)"%&@QQ%51$4!(!$5!%OS.''.*!%6!4!$'!e%9''!"%1(%T.) .*."<%41(% Regional and International Stability.” CW% YG.%R/ .$=%O&'()!*R'%S.''.*!%6!4!$'!e%9$%9''!"%1(%)%6()# )52%.$%)%@1$51$>!$".1$)*% Q5!$)(.1=P%3(!'!$")".1$%)"%&@QQ%51$4!(!$5!%OS.''.*!%6!4!$'!e%9''!"%1(%T.) .*."<% for Regional and International Stability.” CD% J)/*%Q50/*"!=%O&$"!()5".1$'% !"#!!$%S.''.*!%6!4!$'!=%6!"!((!$5!%)$+%6.')(-)-!$"e% 9%R!*)".>.'"%933(1)50=P%3(!'!$")".1$%)"%&@QQ%51$4!(!$5!%OS.''.*!%6!4!$'!e%9''!"% 1(%T.) .*."<%41(%R!:.1$)*%)$+%&$"!($)".1$)*%Q") .*."<8P CM% g(/$1%X!("().'=%Og!<1$+%YQ%@/5*!)(%N!)31$'i%@9XI%)$+%Q"()"!:.5%6!"!((!$5!% by 2020,” in #39:;R)#35&<"41%4'=/6#3762'%1#>'%?5&)#%@4'1#AB/6%=5 =%!+'8%,/:0% Z0)*-!('=%S)*51*-%Z0)*-!('=%)$+%9$+(!)%g!(:!(=%N0."!0)**%R!31("%E7CA%]R1<)*% Y$."!+%Q!(>.5!'%&$'"."/"!=%I5"1 !(%ABCA^=%38%AB8