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ISRAEL and the WMD THREAT: LESSONS for EUROPE by Cameron S

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ISRAEL and the WMD THREAT: LESSONS for EUROPE by Cameron S ISRAEL AND THE WMD THREAT: LESSONS FOR EUROPE By Cameron S. Brown* Having faced a growing threat from the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) for the past several decades, Israel has been forced to make counter-proliferation a top national defense priority.(1) It has invested billions of dollars in developing a multi-layered national defense strategy that is arguably the most highly developed of any country on earth. As such, Israel's experience in this field can offer several important lessons (from its mistakes and successes) for European countries that are only now coming under the range of several rogue countries' long-range missile systems, not to mention the growing threat of WMD terrorism (This article was originally written for a project and conference on "Countering Threats in the Era of Mass Destruction: Accounts from the Middle East and Europe," co-sponsored by the GLORIA Center and The Military Centre for Strategic Studies (CeMiSS) of Italy.) THE ISRAELI THREAT Secondly, in any conflict, Israel is PERCEPTION heavily dependent on a system of calling up In order to understand what policies reserve solders to reinforce its small Israel has devised and employed in order to standing army. Should one of Israel's counter WMD proliferation, it is imperative adversaries use a WMD in the first few to consider the threats Israeli security hours of hostilities--and especially if it hit planners have taken into consideration near a mobilization center--it would when formulating these strategies.(2) unquestionably impede any efficient The gravity of the situation for Israel lies mobilization of the reserve forces. An in a combination of factors that play to attack on its airforce bases could be Israel's disadvantage. The first factor is the similarly disabling.(4) country's small geographic size (just over Lastly, almost every country that Israel 20,000 square kilometers) and its small might have to confront in war is believed to number of highly valuable targets (e.g. possess WMD of some sort, many are three major seaports, one major civilian attempting to enhance their capabilities, and airport, and four central power stations). some have directly threatened Israel with This is then compounded by the country's their use. Before the war in Iraq, security extremely high population density, with planners believed the country to be within two-thirds of its residents living within a range of over 1,000 surface-to-surface 75km radius in three major metropolitan missiles (SSMs), mostly Scuds that can be areas.(3) These factors would increase the armed with non-conventional--mainly temptation to actually use WMD, knowing chemical--warheads.(5) Even worse, most that the consequences of their use could of these missiles would be fired from have a major strategic effect, possibly even mobile launchers, which (as the 1991 Gulf ending the country's very existence. The War demonstrated) are much more difficult country's small size might also persuade an to eliminate than fixed launchers.(6) While adversary that it is possible to destroy any many of the following estimates have been potential Israeli second-strike capacity with amended lately as new information has a big enough initial surprise attack. come to light, a consideration of what Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) Israel AND the WMD Threat: Lessons for Europe Israeli policymakers believed were the while Libya did possess advanced designs WMD threats the country faced is important for nuclear weapons and several undeclared in understanding why they chose to pursue sites whose purpose was to create nuclear the policies they did. weapons-grade material, the country was Starting closest to Israel's borders, Syria extremely dependent on foreign suppliers, is considered to have an advanced chemical and at the very earliest, was several years weapons program (capable of producing away from producing an indigenous nuclear sarin and VX nerve gas) and a small device.(14) biological weapons program. Syria can Still, the threats that have concerned deliver these weapons via air-dropped Israel most have been from Iraq and Iran. bombs or Scud-B, -C, and eventually -D While today's pundits claim that Saddam missiles--the last having a range covering Husayn's WMD was all a figment of the all of Israel's territory, even from Syria's Bush Administration's imagination, after northeast corner.(7) To Israel's south, Egypt the Gulf War in 1991, the situation was was the first country in the region to obtain exactly the opposite: UNSCOM and and use WMD (using mustard gas in International Atomic Energy Agency Yemen), and it is still believed to possess a (IAEA) inspectors were surprised by significant chemical weapons (CW) exactly how far advanced the Iraqi program and is suspected of also possessing programs were. The Iraqi nuclear effort was a small biological weapons (BW) program, especially noteworthy for its immense size, as well as Scud-B, Project T, and possibly financial and human resources investment, even Scud-C missiles for delivery.(8) multi-directional approach, and that despite Looking further afield, Libya and Saudi all of the above, it was chiefly able to Arabia each have pursued small, but not remain undetected by Western intelligence insignificant WMD programs. While it throughout the 1980s.(15) With this possesses anywhere from 40-60 CSS-2 experience in mind, and with the medium-range missiles (with the longest knowledge of what technical progress the range of any missile force in the region),(9) Iraqis had made, almost all assessments Saudi Arabia is not thought to possess throughout the 1990s believed that without nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons at intrusive inspections, Iraq could have a present.(10) Before it admitted to the extent nuclear weapon within a few years; if they of its proliferation activities, most observers obtained highly enriched uranium from considered Libya's WMD program tiny and abroad, that time was thought to be under a rudimentary compared with those of any of year.(16) the other major regional actors.(11) For this Iraq admitted to creating about a dozen reason few took seriously Israeli Prime biological agents in vast quantities, most Minister Ariel Sharon's comments in importantly 8,500 liters of anthrax.(17) October 2003 that "One would not be Reportedly, Iraq even weaponized about 25 surprised if Libya would be the first Arab surface-to-surface missile warheads and country [to] have nuclear weapons."(12) 166 air bombs with BW agents.(18) This However, when Libya revealed everything amount, as Richard Butler (former head of in its possession two months later, Libya's UNSCOM) claimed, was enough to "blow progress towards a nuclear weapon was away Tel Aviv."(19) In addition to mustard, much more substantial than previously sarin, soman, and tabun gas, Iraq's CW suspected, and did indeed fall in line with program had also developed 3.5 tons of VX the prime minister's comment. Similarly, by nerve agent (of which a single droplet can the end of the decade the Libyan program, be lethal within minutes), beginning as with cooperation from North Korea, was on early as 1985.(20) its way to producing 50-100 long-range In April 1990, not only did Iraq test ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel flight its Scud missile with a chemical and most of Europe.(13) Nevertheless, warhead, but Saddam gave a speech where Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) Cameron S. Brown he admitted to possessing binary chemical to possess a small BW program that may be weapons and threatening that, "By God, we capable of producing small quantities of will make fire eat up half of Israel if it tries agent.(26) [anything] against Iraq."(21) Having used While Iran reasonably claimed it needed chemical weapons without hesitation in his these weapons in order to deter future Iraqi war against Iran and against the Kurds in WMD use, what makes Iran's WMD 1988, these were not considered empty development so worrisome is its intensely threats. With all this in mind, it is easy to resolute efforts to obtain missiles with understand why Israelis panicked as ranges far beyond any target in Iraq. In Saddam fired 39 Scuds at the country only addition to its fleet of Scuds, Iran has also eight months after his overt threat, and why been developing several medium range that crisis caused the country to begin ballistic missiles, including the Shihab-3 investing enormous sums to counter such a (range 1300km, 700kg payload), Shihab-4 threat in the future. In fact, without Saddam (estimated range 2000km, 1000kg payload), even using one chemical or biological and Shihab-5 (estimated range 5,500km), weapon and with only 8 of 39 missiles all of which have been developed with the actually hitting populated areas, Israel still aid of North Korean, Chinese, and Russian suffered two direct deaths, 230 wounded, of technology.(27) The Shihab-3 has not only them one seriously, nine moderately, and 60 been tested nearly a dozen times (though were hospitalized. Indirectly, 4 died of heart some tests were failures), but Israel believes attacks, seven died from suffocation due to that Iran also has one to two dozen missiles improper use of their gas masks, 226 people that are currently operational.(28) injected themselves with atrophine, and 539 It is important to note that Israel was not suffered from shock and anxiety. The total necessarily the primary reason why these financial losses to property were estimated countries developed or acquired WMD or at roughly $40 million.(22) missile delivery systems, and so it is While Israel can now consider the Iraqi difficult to claim that this alarming situation threat to have been eliminated (at least for is all the result of a prisoners dilemma the foreseeable future), the Iranian threat whereby Israel's actions have caused its has only worsened.
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