PROGRESS MEMORANDUM TO: Carolina

448 S. Hill St. 5900 Wilshire Blvd Suite 1008 Suite 401 Los Angeles, CA 90013 Los Angeles, CA 90036 310.957.6100 323.387.3598 www.geosyntec.com www.theolinstudio.com

PROGRESS MEMORANDUM

TO: Carolina Hernandez, P.E., Los Angeles County Public Works

PROJECT: Los Angeles River Master Plan Update

TASK NUMBER: 3.11

SUBJECT: Sustainability and Resilience

SUBMITTED BY: Jessica M. Henson, RLA, ASLA, OLIN Mark Hanna, Ph.D., P.E Nate Wooten, RA, ASLA, AIA, OLIN Al Preston, Ph.D., P.E.

DATE: 3 December 2018

MEMO NUMBER: 3.11-4

The following Progress Memorandum summarizes the significant findings for the Los Angeles River Master Plan Update Task 3.11 related to sustainability and resilience.

Executive Summary The LA River is an underutilized asset whose stewardship should be guided through sustainable planning and resilient strategies that mitigate threats from a range of human and environmental hazards; however, its most critical function is to provide a protective and resilient flood management infrastructure. Currently, LA County is developing a comprehensive sustainability plan which will address “climate change, water, energy, resource management, land use, transportation, open space, biodiversity, public health, economy and workforce development, housing, resilience, and governance” with an equity lens.1 The LA River offers an opportunity to contribute to all the objectives identified but principally water, resource management, biodiversity, open space, and public health.

The related topics of resilience and sustainability encapsulate a fundamental duality that is the LA River: a vital resource to sustain and a dynamic risk to manage. The original Pueblo de Los Angeles was settled just high enough above the river to be safe from the disturbance of seasonal floods, while close enough to benefit from a reliable supply of water in an otherwise arid landscape. This balancing act of positioning oneself to water is as critical to Los Angeles today as it was at its founding and is at the core of issues of sustainability and resilience along the LA River in the twenty-first century. However, there is a lot more to the sustainability and resilience of the LA River than just the water that

1 Los Angeles County Chief Sustainability Office, “Our County Info Sheet”, August 2018, https://ourcountyla.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Our-County-Info-Sheet.pdf.

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flows down it. The river corridor’s larger context and many adjacencies intertwine it with a myriad of additional external forces, resources, risks, and opportunities.

County Comprehensive Sustainability Planning Sustainability has been a driving ethos in environmental planning and policy, supplying guidelines to promote the management of resources in a way that guarantees the equitable welfare of current and future generations. Sustainability on the LA River is at once about maintaining the river as a natural resource, while also ensuring the river corridor’s broader potential to help sustain the communities that surround it. Los Angeles County launched a Chief Sustainability Office in 2016 and is currently in the process of creating the first Los Angeles Countywide Sustainability Plan, led by its Chief Sustainability Officer, Gary Gero. With an over-arching theme of equity, the plan intends to comprehensively address climate change, water, energy, resource management, land use, transportation, open space, biodiversity, public health, economy and workforce development, housing, resilience, and governance, throughout the entirety of the county.2 The County’s Sustainability Plan “Our County” joins a patchwork of sustainability plans at the municipal level and together should guide sustainability initiatives through the LA River Corridor.

Resilience is defined by the capacity of a community to recover quickly from impacts related to significant adverse events. In the built environment and in a community, these events can occur as both shocks and stress. Shocks are single events such as an earthquake, wildfire or landslide, a failure of the power grid, a highway bridge collapse, or an act of violence or terrorism. Stresses are longer term changes such as climate change, worsening air quality, or slow economic shifts. The most important way to prepare for these challenges is through a combination of smart physical and social planning and policy that considers the everyday culture of a place. Recently, resilience planning in the county has been addressed through the Los Angeles County Community Climate Action Plan (2015), Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management, All Hazard Mitigation Plan (2014) and will be further addressed upon the completion of the ongoing Los Angeles Countywide Sustainability Plan, “Our County”. These county efforts are joined by resiliency planning, Climate Action Plans, and Sustainability Plans at the municipal level throughout the county. Together Sustainability Plans and Climate Action Plans support and ensure compliance with California State Assembly and State Senate Measures AB 32, AB 33, and SB 375.3 Collectively, these resilience and sustainability planning efforts help collect and implement policy and projects that will ensure the long-term vitality of the region, and therefore should be integrated with planning efforts along the LA River where appropriate.

Climate, Hydrology, and Anticipating Climate Change The Los Angeles region is categorized as a Mediterranean climate, with ample sunshine and hot and dry summers and relatively cool and wet winters. The same elements responsible for this temperate

2 Los Angeles County Chief Sustainability Office, “Our County Info Sheet”, August 2018, https://ourcountyla.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Our-County-Info-Sheet.pdf. 3 Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability, “Climate Action Plans: An Overview”, Accessed from: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/525dcddce4b03a9509e033ab/t/54c044a5e4b056c8040ec38c/1421 886629045/CAPS+overview.pdf & J.R. DeShazo and Juan Matute, “Progress Report: Climate Action Planning in Southern California”, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.

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mean climate also contribute to large annual fluctuations in extreme precipitation, prolonged drought, and extreme heat.4

More locally, elevation and proximity to the Pacific Ocean define distinct microclimates, which have a significant impact on both human comfort and ecology. The San Gabriel Mountains in the northern portion of the watershed, with peaks as high as 10,000 feet, experience the highest rates of precipitation and the coolest temperatures. Down in the valley, temperatures along the LA River corridor are generally much higher and precipitation much lower compared with the mountains; however, within the 51 miles and 790-foot drop in elevation of the LA River there are pronounced differences in temperature and precipitation. While mean temperatures appear constant along the river, the lower portion of the river averages as much as six inches less precipitation per year than the San Fernando Valley located in the upper more elevated portion of the river.5 Removed from the Pacific Ocean breezes by the Santa Monica Mountains, the San Fernando Valley experiences higher maximum temperatures and lower minimum temperatures compared to the more coastal Los Angeles Plain.6 While occasional extreme cold events can threaten vegetation, temperatures are historically mild enough to not be threatening to people. The extreme heat events are historically much more common in San Fernando Valley and are the greater threat to human health. Between 1981 and 2000 the valley averaged 54 days a year with temperatures above 95°F whereas Long Beach at the mouth of the LA River experienced only 4 days per year.7

Climate change is anticipated to dramatically increase these extreme heat events. For the period of 2081 to 2100 the San Fernando Valley is anticipated to see a 230% increase in days of 95°F compared with the period of 1981 to 2000 bringing the total up to 126 days per year, or 1 in every 3 days8. At Long Beach the total is projected to increase to 37 days per year, or 1 in every 10 days.9 While this is much lower than the San Fernando Valley’s projected total, it is a significant 1200% increase meaning communities along the lower river may be less prepared for hot days (e.g., less air- conditioning). Heat is further amplified in the city by the urban heat island effect (UHIE), where heat is amplified locally by heat-absorptive surfaces, heat-generating activities, the absence of vegetation, and high levels of air pollution, conditions common in areas adjacent to the river. Communities with higher social vulnerability (older and younger populations, homes without air conditioning, and areas with more outdoor workers, etc.) and areas with large unsheltered populations are particularly

4 Daniel L. Swain, Baird Langenbrunner, J. David Neelin, and Alex Hall, A. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first century California. Nature Climate Change 8, pages 427–433 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018- 0140-y (2018). 5 Calculated from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Precipitation, 2015 & Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018 6 Calculated from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Minimal Temperature, 2015 & Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018 7 UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, The Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region Project, accessed on July 30, 2018, http://research.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/LA_project_summary.html. 8 Ibid. 9 Ibid.

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vulnerable to the UHIE and extreme heat events.10 Currently there are 13 homeless shelter and service centers and 5 cooling and warming centers within one mile of the LA River.11

While temperatures are more consistent throughout the year, precipitation is distinctively seasonal with most of the rain falling in winter. February is historically the wettest month of the year with an average rainfall as high as 10 inches in the mountains and 4-5 inches along the LA River Corridor.12 Contrastingly in July, the driest summer month, the mountains receive less than an inch on average, and it is not uncommon to have no recorded rain along the river corridor.13 In addition to seasonal variability, precipitation totals can also vary significantly from year to year and decade to decade.

The extremes in precipitation within the watershed have always had dramatic impacts on the volume and flow rate of water in the LA River. Pre-channelization, the river would sometimes flood the Los Angeles Plain for days, while other years, drying out before ever reaching the ocean.14 On average approximately 280,000 AF/year of water from wet weather in the LA River watershed flows out to the Pacific Ocean, representing a large opportunity to increase local water supply.15 However, the flashy nature of the stormwater flow in the LA River will not make it practical to capture all this water. Analyses will be needed to determine appropriate diversion and pumping rates and appropriate temporary surface storage volumes to optimize capture and determine realistic average capture for volumes for water supply benefits. In addition to the flashy nature of each storm event, the LA River experiences large variability in overall wet weather volume from year to year. The wettest year for the river within the last two decades occurred in 2005 (950,000 ac-ft of run-off at the River Mouth) and was followed in 2007 (50,000 ac-ft of run-off at the River Mouth) by one of the driest years.16 The large interannual variation in this potential local supply requires longer term storage in groundwater basins to be implemented as part of the regional strategy to enable drawdown in dry years and recharge in wet years.

In addition to opportunities to capture and use stormwater, dry-weather flow on the LA River is also critical to maintaining ecological and recreational benefits. As the watershed has been paved over and natural washes and arroyos replaced by storm drains and channelized rivers, the dry-weather flow rate of the Los Angeles River has become increasingly augmented and stabilized. Since 1985 treated water discharged from water reclamation plants has maintained a consistent dry-weather flow on the

10 Heather Cooley, Eli Moore, Matthew Heberger, and Lucy Allen, “Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in California,” Pacific Institute, September 28, 2012. 11 Calculated from Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016

12 Calculated from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Precipitation, 2015 & Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018 13 Ibid 14 See Blake Gumprecht, The Los Angeles River: Its Life, Death, and Possible Rebirth, 2001 15 Analysis based on LA County’s Hydrologic LSPC model, Loading Simulation Program in C. 16 Ibid.

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LA River below River Mile 44 and the City of LA’s Tillman Water Reclamation Plant.17 With additional discharges from Burbank and Glendale water reclamation plants there is at least approximately 60 cfs of flow in the river from water reclamation plants below River Mile 29.5.18 Combined with other sources of dry-weather flow, such as urban run-off and upwelling in the Glendale Narrows region there is a minimum dry-weather flow rate of approximately 70 cfs that has created and sustained a particular ecological, recreational, and aesthetic condition along the lower 29 miles of the river.19 However, efforts to increase local water supply reliability have led to discussions from local water reclamation plants about using treated effluent for groundwater aquifer recharge, rather than having the water run through the Los Angeles River and out to the Pacific Ocean. A LA River Environmental Flows Study has been commissioned by the State Water Board to study the balance of recycling water and the protection of the beneficial use designations of the LA River.20 Re-use of treated effluent, as well as other proposed changes in the watershed, such as low impact development (LID), may result in decreased dry-weather flows in the future.

Figure 1: The LA River Watershed experiences extreme seasonal and annual precipitation patterns.

17 Ibid. 18 Ibid. 19 Ibid. 20 See SCCWRP, ‘LA River Environmental Flows Study’, http://ftp.sccwrp.org/pub/download/PRESENTATIONS/Commission_Meetings/18_03.02/Flows.pdf

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Expanding Sustainability Planning, Community Resources, and Environmental Resources Along the LA River In addition to the LA River’s water, the land it occupies is one of its greatest resources. The 2,396 acres of publicly owned or managed land within the fence line of the river corridor also present an opportunity for resource generation.21 While the width of the LA River channel varies from 55 to 585 feet, additional rights-of-way and setbacks further widen the expanse of undeveloped land associated with the river.22 Twenty-three miles of transmission line parallel the banks of the LA River and over 46 transmissions lines cross the river, a majority of which are on the lower half of the river.23 The undeveloped land and rights-of-way that accompany transmission towers and cables at times double the width of the river corridor, further separating the river from adjacent communities. The LA River flows through or adjacent to five (5) electric and utility providers. The Los Angeles Department of Water & Power, Burbank Water & Power, Glendale Water & Power, and City of Vernon have jurisdiction on the upper half of the river, while Southern California Edison has jurisdiction south of River Mile 16. However, the actual ownership of transmission line and other infrastructural easements varies.

The coupling of a flood infrastructure and transmission lines poses both an opportunity and risk. Land adjacent to and beneath the power lines has the potential for additional passive uses such as trails, recreation, urban agriculture, and grassland and wetland habitat presuming the inclusion of these additional uses does not inhibit access to the transmission corridor for safety and maintenance vehicles or interfere with the powerlines above. Furthermore, the transmission towers and ground- level electrical equipment are vulnerable to flooding. It is recommended that planning along the LA River corridor emphasize elevating and/or further protecting these facilities from flooding and vandalism, while adding additional passive uses for neighboring communities.

Typically, free of existing structures and trees, the LA River and its adjacent right-of ways are unshaded expanses that may be further utilized for small to medium-scale solar power generation when elevated out of the floodplain. While solar panels have been integrated into some existing lighting features along the river, future amenities and shade structures could double as power generating surfaces. Currently solar panel installations are more common in neighborhoods along the upper half of the river.24 On the lower half of the river, where space adjacent to the river is more common, undeveloped land could be further utilized by local communities to increase their local solar resources. From a resilience standpoint, these solar installations could serve as a central spine of micro-energy generation, taking stress off the regional power grid and supplying a sustainable power source for neighboring communities during larger outages. Other opportunities for renewable energy may emerge through efforts such as the Clean Power Alliance, which provides renewable energy through the existing power grid. Currently few communities along the LA River are part of the alliance.25

21 Calculated from aerial analysis by Geosyntec 22 Ibid. 23 Calculated from: State of California Energy Commission, California Electric Transmission Line, 2018

24 Calculated from UCLA Grand Challenges Sustainable LA, PEV’s per Household, 2017, Data accessed from: https://grandchallengesucla.carto.com. 25 For an updated list of California communities within the Clean Power Alliance service territory see: http://cleanpoweralliance.org/, accessed on November 28, 2011

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Some of the undeveloped right-of-ways and land adjacent to the river have already been utilized for urban agriculture. According to the University of California Cooperative Extension’s Cultivate Los Angeles, 112 urban farms and nurseries exist within 1 mile of the river.26 Community gardens, farms, nurseries, and school gardens are part of a network of facilities that produce a range of benefits compared to barren or impervious paved areas. Urban agriculture sites infiltrate water, can lower the UHIE through evapotranspiration and added shade, and provide a sustainable local food source, employment, and education.

Forty of the 268 schools within a mile of the river have gardens, typically located in otherwise barren or paved school yards.27 Though small, these facilities provide healthy produce for kids and communities, but perhaps their greatest impact is in educating and empowering young Angelenos with knowledge about healthy food and native plants. Larger in size, the 25 community gardens and 13 farms located near the river play a more central role in providing fresh food to communities within the heart of the city.28 Though mostly located on adjacent parcels outside of the river corridor, some of the facilities are in the infrastructural right-of-ways within or directly adjacent to the river channel. There are also 34 plant nurseries beneath the electric transmission lines near the river, providing employment opportunities while supplying locally grown plants to sites throughout the region.29 Urban agriculture is often seen as a part-time use for vacant land until it is developed for a higher use, but when compatible with existing uses, these agriculture areas could be integrated into future long- term open space planning along the LA River corridor. While urban agriculture may not be always compatible within the river channel itself, this established network of farmers and volunteers that support existing agricultural facilities near the river could be a foundation for stewardship of future parks and planted areas along the river.

26 Calculated from: University of California Cooperative Extension in Los Angeles County (UCCE-LA), Cultivate Los Angeles, Cultivate LA Interactive Map, accessed January 7, 2018, https://cultivatelosangeles.org/2017/01/11/cultivate-la-2016-is-live/. 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Ibid.

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Figure 2: In addition to highway and rail infrastructure, electric transmission lines parallel much of the river. Associated infrastructural right-of-ways create additional opportunities for the LA River to be a healthier, affordable, resource-producing transit corridor.

Flood Risks Flooding is the most directly applicable hazard for the entirety of the LA River. The concrete channelization of the river corridor is a direct response to the region’s vulnerability to flooding. Prior to channelization, the geomorphology was that of a flashy alluvial stream. Heavy precipitation would fall in the mountains rushing water and debris across a broad floodplain in the San Fernando Valley and the Los Angeles Plain before reaching the ocean. This massive area of historic inundation is determined today by the presence of modern floodplain soils, but was also experienced in the Noachian Deluge, also known as the Great Flood of 1862, in which 35” of rain fell in a month.30 The floodplain was so massive and the disturbance so great that the LA River mouth moved from Venice Beach to its current location 20 miles southeast in Long Beach. Following several decades of continued flood events, the Los Angeles Basin Flood of 1938 with 10” of rain, 115 deaths, and $78 million of damage ($1.36 billion in 2017 dollars) occurred at a time when the city had begun

30 “A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California”, May 2016, https://www.weather.gov/media/sgx/documents/weatherhistory.pdf

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expanding into the floodplain.31 The extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure culminated in the federal government’s support of planning and constructing the flood channel. While river modifications had already begun, construction of the 51-mile engineered channel by USACE began in 1938 and was completed by 1960.32 With the addition of more levees and other flood capacity expanding measures in the 1990s, the channel has been tremendously successful in flushing flood waters out to the ocean and diminishing flood damage in the Los Angeles Plain.33 Despite the effectiveness of the channel, there are 49.8 squares miles in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 500-year floodplain and 9.7 square miles in the FEMA 100-year floodplain in Los Angeles County.34 Additionally, some portions of the Arbor Reach (between Barham Boulevard and First Street) have a channel capacity that is less than half of the 100-year flow rate and with estimated flood return periods as low as 3 years.35 While there have been no recent floods, the threat of flooding prior to the 2016 El Niño prompted the USACE to place HESCO Barriers—mesh gabions lined with heavy duty fabric used as temporary levees —along the top of the river channel as an interim risk reduction measure in this section of the river.36

The FEMA data used steady-state 1-D modeling of the Los Angeles River with specific break out areas analyzed to determine the floodplain extent. More recently, USACE conducted an evaluation of the floodplain for the Arbor using unsteady 1-D modeling of the LA River channel with full 2-D modeling of the surrounding floodplain. This approach provides more accurate estimates of floodplain extents. The study showed that more than 3000 parcels are in the floodplain that were not previously listed.37 The difference between the FEMA mapping and the USACE mapping in this section of the river may in part be due to updated assumptions in the vegetation conditions in the Arbor Reach, but it may also reveal a potential need for more comprehensive analyses and re-mapping for all 51 miles. Floodplain re- mapping should also consider the latest predictions for increases in extreme precipitation events caused by climate change. A recent study published by scientists at the UCLA Institute of Environment and Sustainability suggests that there may be more than a "threefold increase in sub-seasonal events

31 Ibid. 32 Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, “History of the Los Angeles River”, accessed July 30, 2018, http://ladpw.org/wmd/watershed/LA/history.cfm. 33 Ibid. 34 Calculated from Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Flood Zones, 2016

35 Los Angeles District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, “Los Angeles River Ecosystem Restoration Integrated Feasibility Report”, Volume 1, Appendix E, Table 17, September 2015. 36 Los Angeles District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, “Corps announces interim risk reduction measures on LA River”, Release no. 16-002, 2016, https://www.spl.usace.army.mil/Media/News- Releases/Article/642105/corps-announces-interim-risk-reduction-measures-on-la-river/ 37 Rene Vermeeren, Adam Bier, “Presentation for the Potential Addition of Special Flood Hazard Areas”, October 17, 2018, http://eng2.lacity.org/projects/LARIVER_Glendale_Narrows/docs/USACE_PowerPoint_Presentation_Slides_17Oc tober2016.pdf

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comparable to California’s Great Flood of 1862” within the next century.38 Additional study is required to determine the capacity of existing flood infrastructure to contain such events and the impacts of such a flood on neighboring communities and infrastructure.

Given that some sections of the river channel do not currently meet capacity for containing a 100-year storm event, the number of neighborhoods and critical infrastructure adjacent to the river and broader floodplains, and the increased likelihood of extreme precipitation events, it is essential that the LA River continue to function as protective and resilient flood management infrastructure, and that people and structures in the current and future floodplain are prepared and protected against the risk of flooding. Flood insurance is required for properties within the 100-year floodplain, so there is a financial burden to any shifts in floodplain designations.

Figure 3: Significant portions of the Glendale Narrows and the Lower Los Angeles River are susceptible to flooding from the LA River corridor.

38 Daniel L. Swain, Baird Langenbrunner, J. David Neelin, and Alex Hall, A. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first century California. Nature Climate Change 8, pages 427–433 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018- 0140-y (2018).

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Earthquake Preparedness Along the River Corridor In addition to flooding and drought, the LA River and surrounding communities may experience earthquakes, landslides, wildland fires, dam failures, severe weather, sea-level rise, tsunamis, hazardous material discharges, and poor air quality.39 Structures and infrastructure along the river should be resilient against this medley of risks, but the river itself can also help adjacent communities mitigate these same risks and bounce back from disturbances by providing local resources as well as serving as a large open space for community gathering.

A major earthquake centered in Los Angeles, often referred to as “The Big One” has been the focus of much resiliency planning in the Los Angeles area. The LA River corridor is particularly vulnerable to damage during an earthquake due to the loose saturated alluvial soils surrounding the river. Except for 4 miles of river in downtown Los Angeles, nearly the entire river lies within liquefaction soil zones.40 This was most evident during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake centered just a couple miles north of the river in the San Fernando Valley. Overall the earthquake killed 60 people, injured over 9,000, and caused between $13 and $20 billion dollars in damage.41 While earthquake damage can occur throughout the county, structural damage from ground shaking is increased in liquefaction zones, found throughout much of the LA River Corridor. Additionally, the river crosses major fault zones between River Miles 4-5 and at River Mile 28.

Wildfire Exposure Wildfires in the region are most common in the undeveloped mountains that surround the city and are a natural part of the ecology of the region. Wildfires pose the greatest damage at the interface between development and natural areas known as the Wildland Urban Intermix Zone. In California these areas are further overlaid with Fire Hazard Severity Zones, designated by the State of California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The LA River intersects and is adjacent to the Highest Fire Hazard Severity zones as it parallels the Santa Monica Mountains and throughout the Glendale Narrows. Historically fires have occurred throughout Griffith Park, coming close to the river corridor as recently as 2007. Except for the soft bottom vegetation sections, a majority of the river is lined in concrete and is, therefore, somewhat inflammable and perhaps might serve as a fire break in areas. Vegetation along the LA River must be selected and maintained to minimize the risks of fires.

Infrastructure The overall resilience of the region depends on the critical facilities and infrastructure that fall within the 100-year and 500-year LA River FEMA floodplain and other hazard zones. As defined by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works in the Comprehensive Floodplain Management Plan 2016, critical facilities include: disaster and emergency operations centers, police and fire stations, medical facilities, schools, and hazardous material facilities. Critical Infrastructure includes: transit facilities, bridges and tunnels, communication, electric power, oil, dam, and potable and water

39 Los Angeles County Chief Executive Office-Office of Emergency Management, All-Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2014

40 Calculated from Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Seismic Hazards

41 Colin Schultz, “20 Years Ago Today, the Northridge Earthquake Rocked L.A.”, Smithsonian Magazine, January 17, 2014, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/20-years-ago-today-northridge-earthquake-rocked-l- 180949387/.

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reclamation facilities. Evacuation routes, transmission and rail lines, and freeways and freeway exits were also analyzed. Future planning should recommend enhanced protection for these facilities given their roles in community resilience and essential emergency management. While the Comprehensive Floodplain Management Plan maps these facilities and infrastructure types for unincorporated areas of LA County, it does not cover areas within other municipalities. The Consultant Team has constructed a database of available information for the rest of the areas along the LA River for consideration during planning. Increasing channel capacity to higher levels will not make economic sense for all sections of the channel, but considerations for where increased capacity can protect critical infrastructure should be considered for inclusion in the Master Plan process. As FEMA has indicated, there is great benefit to spending funds ahead of time on mitigation for riverine flooding. There is a 7:1 benefit to cost ratio for protecting code requirements and a 5:1 ratio for protecting over code requirements.42

Tsunami Hazard and Sea Level Rise at the Mouth of the LA River Like many coastal regions in the tectonically active region of the Pacific Rim, Los Angeles County is subject to tsunamis. While the region has not experienced a major tsunami in its modern history, a tsunami inundation area has been defined by a joint effort between the California Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, and the University of Southern California Tsunami Research Center. Near the mouth of the LA River at Long Beach, 2.5 miles fall within the inundation area.43 Similarly, the lower portion of the LA River will be impacted by the impacts of sea level rise produced by climate change. While the exact pace and magnitude of sea level rise is unknown, a high- end sea level rise scenario of 1.41 meters (4.6 ft) by the end of the century conforms with California Climate Change Assessments to date under the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios.44 Under this scenario the first 4 miles of the river at Long Beach would be hydrologically impacted by sea level rise pushing the salt/fresh water line further inland with subsequent changes to both aquatic and terrestrial ecology. Sea level rise may also reduce the flood capacity of the LA River near the mouth by increasing the water surface elevation. For example, a sea level rise scenario of 1.41 m (4.6 ft) will result in an increased water surface elevation as far as approximately half a mile upstream from the river mouth.

Industrial Hazards within the Corridor In addition to hydrological hazards, human caused hazards also impact the river and adjacent communities. There are 610 hazardous sites within a mile of the LA river including, 8 powerplants, 12 superfund sites, 16 brownfield sites, 2 water reclamation plants, 358 toxic release sites, and 292

42 Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study. 43 Calculated from State of California, 2009, Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning, produced by California Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, and University of Southern California – Tsunami Research Center

44 Cal-Adapt, Seal Level Rise Tool, 1.41 meters Sea Level Rise Scenario, 2018, http://keystone.gisc.berkeley.edu/cec_gas_study_layers/South_coast/.

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large quantity hazardous waste sites.45 While the direct impact and risk associated with these facilities varies, there is a greater frequency of these sites associated with the industrial areas near the lower LA River. In addition to hazardous facilities, general air quality, measured by the density of fine particulate matter in a cubic meter of air, is worst at downtown where ambient fine particulate matter reaches 13 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3).46 Currently the EPA maximum standard is 12 µg/ m3.47 Air quality improves at each end of the river, down to 11 µg/m3 at Long Beach, and 10 µg/m3 at Canoga Park.48 In addition to these ambient measures, locally, air quality is likely to be worsened along portions of the river that are adjacent to freeways, rail corridors, and industrial areas.

While some of these disasters and hazards can be mitigated with improvements to infrastructure, resilience to disasters along the LA River also depends on social resilience, community cohesion, and disaster management and response planning. In the event of a disaster, LA County has eight different disaster management zones nested within the county’s Office of Emergency Management. In the event of a disaster, these zones act as middle step between the 88 cities of LA County and the State of California’s emergency management agencies. The LA River crosses 4 of these zones and has 8 emergency and disaster management offices within one mile of the river.49 While the river is a source of flood hazards, during and after other disaster events, the large publicly owned space of the river channel and rights-of-way may also serve a role as an area of refuge or a staging area.

45 Calculated from EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018

46 Calculated from Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, CalEnviroScreen 3.0, 2017

47 California Air Resource Board, Ambient Air Quality Standards (AAQS) for Particulate Matter, 2015, https://www.arb.ca.gov/research/aaqs/pm/pm.htm. 48 Calculated from Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, CalEnviroScreen 3.0, 2017 49 Calculated from Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Disaster Management Areas, 2015

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Critical Facilities within LA County: Within Flood Hazard Area 1.41m Sea Any of Level FEMA FEMA the 4 Total Tsunami Rise Facility Description 100-yr 500-yr Flood Facilities Inundation w/ Floodplain Floodplain Hazard 100-yr Areas Storm Event Emergency Operations Facilities 2 12 1 1 12 105 Police Stations 1 14 1 0 15 119 Fire Stations 10 72 18 10 79 451 Medical Care Facilities 37 752 16 12 757 5,754 Schools 43 673 6 5 673 4,745 Hazardous Material Sites 311 2,836 243 210 2,910 18,667 Totals 404 4,359 285 238 4,446 29,841

Table 1: There are almost 4,500 critical facilities in flood hazard areas in Los Angeles County. Note that not all infrastructure and facilities in the flood hazard areas are directly caused by flooding from the LA River and some facilities are exposed to multiple types of flood hazard risk.

Progress Memorandum to Carolina Hernandez 3 December 2018 Page 15

Conclusions It is vital that the resources in and around the LA River be sustained to guarantee welfare and promote equity for current and future generations. In a region that is both arid and increasingly short on available land, an underutilized 51-mile river corridor presents an incredible opportunity to create new multi-benefit uses that enhance resiliency and quality of life of river adjacent communities and the region as a whole. Excess land in the channel right-of-way as well as adjacent vacant and publicly owned lots can be part of a network of parks, stormwater wetlands, and habitat areas, but also intermixed with sites for power generation, urban agriculture, and new community facilities. However, the river as a resource must be balanced by acknowledging the river as a risk. Currently some portions of the river channel do not meet the 100-year flood capacity and large swaths of land along the river remain susceptible to flooding with risks potentially increasing given the increased likelihood of extreme precipitation events caused by climate change. New facilities and uses within and adjacent to the river corridor must themselves be designed resiliently to continue to serve the community during and after flood and other environmental hazards. Additionally, increases in extreme heat combined with the rising impacts of the urban heat island effect could mean that many portions of the LA River see substantial increases in the number of days with temperatures above 95°F. Providing ample shade structures, sites for cooling and potable water, and connecting communities to the river beneath an increased urban tree canopy will all help in making a more sustainable and resilient public open space along the river.

1. LA County and its municipalities are actively planning and developing policies to enhance the region’s sustainability and resilience to climate change. Where possible, the LA River Master Plan can support existing state, county, and municipal sustainability and climate action plans, and other resiliency planning efforts, especially those that foreground or leverage the LA River corridor. Where possible the LA River Master Plan should also integrate goals of the on-going Los Angeles Countywide Sustainability Plan, “Our County”. Planning for the river will include the "triple bottom line" considerations of environment, culture, and economy. By sustainably managing water and other environmental, cultural, and economic resources associated with the river, the river as an urban-ecological system will also be more resilient against future volatility and hazards.

2. Right-of-ways within the LA River and adjacent undeveloped lands could be further utilized for urban agriculture and power generation in addition to parks and habitat areas to improve quality of life for the residents of communities around the river. The LA River channel and right-of-way consists of over 2,396 acres.50 While much of this is within the banks of the channel, barren and underutilized lands outside the channel in the right-of-way offer a significant opportunity to increase urban agriculture and local solar power generation in some of the areas that are most lacking it.

3. Large portions of LA County lie within the LA River floodplain and portions of the channel do not meet the 100-year storm capacity. As the LA River is revitalized, additional opportunities to improve the flood resilience in these critical areas (e.g., the Arbor Reach) can be investigated.

50 Calculated from aerial analysis by Geosyntec

Progress Memorandum to Carolina Hernandez 3 December 2018 Page 16

4. Gaps in information can include more comprehensive revised floodplain modeling and mapping for the entirety of the LA River Corridor. Recent advances in the ability to readily perform 2-D floodplain modeling (such as that used by the USACE for the Arbor Reach) may allow for more accurate designation of 100-year and 500-year floodplains for the entire river.

5. Approximately three-quarters of consistent dry-weather flow in the LA River comes from treated wastewater, which may soon be diminished, making the dry-weather ecology in the river more dependent on rainfall and runoff. Treated wastewater comes from 3 independent water reclamation plants who are each considering reducing or eliminating their discharges to increase the reuse of recycled water and aquifer recharge. While this may increase regional water supply reliability, it could be a severe shock to the river’s hydrology and ecology, making the current river ecosystem less sustainable and more vulnerable to drying out in extended dry periods. Therefore, benefits of increased local water supply will have to balance impacts on ecology and habitat.

6. Given the projections of increased frequency of extreme precipitation, drought, and extreme heat for the LA Region, future planning along the river must incorporate the latest peer- reviewed science related to projections and impacts of climate change on the region so the river and adjacent communities can adapt and remain resilient. The channelization of the LA River has been largely successful in managing the risk of extreme flooding events, however, climate change projections indicate a “threefold increase in sub-seasonal (extreme precipitation) events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862.’”51 Significant changes in these predictions may require a great investment in adaptation and resiliency measures or may otherwise require that planning priorities are re-evaluated.

END OF MEMORANDUM 181203_LARMP_Task3.11_Sustainability-Resilience_Progress Memorandum.docx

51 Daniel L. Swain, Baird Langenbrunner, J. David Neelin, and Alex Hall, A. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first century California. Nature Climate Change 8, pages 427–433 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018- 0140-y (2018).

PROGRESS

LOS ANGELES RIVER SUSTAINABILITY & RESILIENCE LARMP TASK 3.11

3 December 2018

17 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

WATER AS BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE, 2012 Source:Flickr user: Scott Lowe, Along the LA River, 2012

18 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

WATER AS RECREATIONAL RESOURCE, 2013 Source: Flickr User Los Angeles District, LA River, 2013

19 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS, DOMINGUEZ GAP WETLANDS, 2018 Source: OLIN

20 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

URBAN AGRICULTURE, (FORMER) SOUTH CENTRAL FARM, 2006 Source: Flckr user Jonathan McIntosh, South Central Farm 24.jpg, 2006, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:South_Central_Farm_24.jpg

21 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

PRIVATE SOLAR POWER PANEL INSTALLATION ON THE ROOF OF THE DEPENDABLE LOGISTICS SERVICES BUILDING Source: Premier Power, Dependable Highway, https://www.premierpower.com/assets/images/aaa-portfolio-pprw19-2000x1500.jpg

22 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

281,893 ACRE THOMAS FIRE IN VENTURA COUNTY, 5 DECEMBER 2017 Source: NASA Earth Observatory, 2017

23 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

281,893 ACRE THOMAS FIRE DETAIL IN VENTURA COUNTY, 5 DECEMBER 2017 Source: NASA Earth Observatory, 2017

24 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

817 ACRE GRIFFITH PARK FIRE, 8 MAY 2007 Source: Flickr user Eric Beteille, G:40 pm, May, 8, 2007

25 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

LOS ANGELES RIVER FLOOD CHANNEL, 5 JANUARY 2016 Source: Flickr user Scott L, 1_E1C7494, 2016

26 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

LOS ANGELES HAZE AND AIR QUALITY, 2015 Source:Flickr User Doc Searls, Downtown Los Angeles, tinted by the haze of fire in mountains to the east, 2015

27 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS DEFINITIONS Resilience

• Ability to “bounce back” from a RESILIENCE disturbance.

• Resilience planning entails the design of systems and structures with the capacity to recover quickly from disruptive events SUSTAINABILITY and destructive forces. Sustainability

• Manage resources in a way that guarantees welfare and promotes equity of current and future generations.

“While sustainability is about putting the world into long-term balance amidst the depletion of natural resources, resilience looks for ways to make systems endure and even thrive in an imbalanced world.” -100 RESILIENT CITIES

28 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS CITIES BETWEEN LA CITY AND LONG BEACH DO NOT HAVE SUSTAINABILITY PLANS

Sustainability Plans (SP) are developed by a city to achieve goals that foster social, environmental, and economic sustainability. Though not required, an SP ensures compliance with California State Assembly and State Senate AB 32, AB 33 and SB 375.

Sustainability Plan Status Adopted Complete In Progress Planned Gaps in Sustainability Plans

Source: Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability, C.A.P. Map, 2017. Accessed from: https://larc.carto.com/me

29 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS CITIES ALONG THE LOWER LA RIVER DO NOT YET HAVE CLIMATE ACTION PLANS

Climate Action Plans (CAPs) are comprehensive roadmaps that outline specific activities that a city or agency will undertake to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Though not required, a CAP ensures compliance with California State Assembly and State Senate AB 32, AB 33 and SB 375.

Climate Action Plan Status Adopted In Progress Planned Gaps in Climate Action Plan

Source: Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability, C.A.P. Map, 2017. Accessed from: https://larc.carto.com/me

30 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LOS ANGELES COUNTYWIDE SUSTAINABILITY PLAN: “OUR COUNTY” Equity & Resilience throughout themes of: • Climate Change • Water • Energy • Resource Management • Land Use Chief Sustainability Office: • Transportation • Hired Gary Gero in 2016 as first • Open Space ever Chief Sustinability Officer. • Biodiversity • Tasked with creating a County • Public Health Sustainability Plan. • Economy and Workforce Development • Goals and Strategies informed by a community and stakeholder • Housing informed process. • Governance

Source: Los Angeles County Chief Sustainability Office, “Our County Info Sheet”, August 2018, https://ourcountyla.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Our-County-Info-Sheet.pdf.

31 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS WATER AS RESOURCE

Source: University of Southern California. Libraries & California Historical Society , View of the bed of the Los Angeles River near Seventh Street, showing a bridge in the background, Date unknown.

32 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THE LA RIVER AND ITS 9 MAJOR TRIBUTARIES, DRAIN AN 834 SQ. MI. WATERSHED

Source: Geosyntec, Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal

33 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA RIVER WATERSHED MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION 1981-2010

38.7 in / 983 mm

LA River Max (19.6 in / 500 mm) LA River Min (13.1 in / 332 mm) 12.9 in / 327 mm

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Precipitation: Annual, 2015

34 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA COUNTY MEAN WINTER (FEB) PRECIPITATION 1981-2010

9.8 in / 249 mm

LA River Max (5.3 in /135 mm) LA River Min (3.3 in / 85 mm)

0 in / 0 mm

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Precipitation: February, 2015

35 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA COUNTY MEAN SUMMER (JULY) PRECIPITATION 1981-2010

9.8 in / 249 mm

LA River Max (0.04 in / 1.0 mm) LA River Min (0.02 in / 0.4 mm) 0 in / 0 mm

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Precipitation: July, 2015

36 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THE LA RIVER WATERSHED EXPERIENCES DISTINCT SEASONAL AND ANNUAL PRECIPITATION PATTERNS Annual Precipitation Variability

Seasonal Precipitation Variability (1971-2000): Upper River Middle River Lower River (Woodland Hills Pierce College) (Los Angeles Downtown USC Campus) (Los Angeles Daugherty Airport)

Source: Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018

37 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS FLOW IN THE LA RIVER IS IMPACTED BY WATER RECLAMATION PLANTS

Tillman WWTP: River Mile 43 (+42 cfs) Burbank WWTP: River Mile 31 (+7 cfs) Los Angeles-Glendale WWTP: River Mile 29 (+12 cfs)

Dry-Weather Flow: Cubic Feet per Second (cfs) 1 cfs (650 AF/year)

71 cfs (51,000 AF/year)

Source: Geosyntec

38 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA RIVER DRY-WEATHER FLOW IS MOSTLY COMPRISED OF WATER RECLAMATION PLANTS WITH ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM URBAN RUN-OFF AND UPWELLING

Source/Flow Rate (cubic feet/second): Dry-Weather Flow Waste Water Treatment Plant Upwelling Area (20th Percentile Dry-Weather Flow)

350

300

250

200 +Los Angeles- 150 +Burbank Glendale Upwelling WWTP WWTP Flow

100 +Tillman WWTP

0 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00

Source: Geosyntec, Analysis Based on LA County’s Hydrologic LSPC model, Loading Simulation Program in C.

39 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS AVERAGE DRY-WEATHER FLOW AT THE MOUTH OF THE LA RIVER IS 71 CFS (50,000 AF/YEAR)

Average Dry-Weather Flow: Cubic Feet per Second 5 cfs (3,600 AFY)

71 cfs (50,000 AFY)

Source: Geosyntec

40 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS ON AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY 280,000 AF/YEAR OF WATER FROM WET-WEATHER FLOWS OUT TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN

Average Wet-Weather Flow: Cubic Feet per Second (cfs): 15 cfs (10,000 AF/year)

385 cfs (280,000 AF/year)

Source: Geosyntec

41 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THE WETTEST AND DRIEST YEARS IN RECENT HISTORY ON THE LA RIVER HAPPENED WITHIN TWO YEARS

Source/Flow Rate (cubic feet/second): Wet-Weather Flow +/- Driest / Wettest Years (Flows in Excess of 80th Percentile Flow)

1,000,000

900,000 +

800,000

700,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000 - 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Geosyntec, Analysis Based on LA County’s Hydrologic LSPC model, Loading Simulation Program in C.

42 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS ENERGY

Source: OLIN

43 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS ELECTRIC & UTILITY SERVICE PROVIDERS

Los Angeles Department of Water & Power Southern California Edison Burbank Water & Power Glendale Water & Power Pasadena Water & Power City of Vernon City of Cerritos City of industry Azusa Light & Power

Source: California Energy Commission, Electric Utility Service Areas, 2015

44 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS ELECTRIC & UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE PARALLELS MUCH OF THE RIVER SOUTH OF BURBANK

Transmission Line Voltage 33-34.5 kV 34.5-70 kV 70-161 kV 161-345 kV 345-500 kV Power Plants Electrical Sub-stations

Source: State of California Energy Commission, California Electric Transmission Line, 2018 & EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018 & Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016

45 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS PER CAPITA GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS ARE HIGHER IN COMMUNITIES ON THE UPPER LA RIVER

GHG Emissions Per Capita of Residential Buildings by Neighborhood 34 million tons of CO2

0 tons of CO2 No Data

Source: UCLA Grand Challenges Sustainable LA, Energy & Air Quality, 2017, Data accessed frmo: https://grandchallengesucla.carto.com

46 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THERE ARE MORE SOLAR PANELS INSTALLATIONS (PEV) IN COMMUNITIES ON THE UPPER LA RIVER

Total PEV Installations by Neighborhood 212

Source: UCLA Grand Challenges Sustainable LA, PEV’s per Houshold, 2017, Data accessed frmo: https://grandchallengesucla.carto.com

47 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LARGER PARCELS AND ROOFTOPS ARE OPTIMAL FOR SOLAR INSTALLATIONS (PEV)

Solar Potential (Parcel Roof Area) High (252,600 sf)

Low (0 sf)

Source: LA County Solar Map, 2006 Solar data mapped on 2010 parcels boundaries.

48 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LEED CERTIFIED BUILDINGS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN DOWNTOWN CITY OF LOS ANGELES

LEED Certified Buildings (2015) Platinum Gold Silver Certified

Source: UCLA Grand Challenges Sustainable LA, Leed Buildings, 2015, Data accessed frmo: https://grandchallengesucla.carto.com

49 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS URBAN AGRICULTURE

Source: OLIN

50 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THERE ARE 112 URBAN FARMS WITHIN 1 MILE OF THE LA RIVER

Community Garden Farm Nursery School Garden

Source: University of California Cooperative Extension in Los Angeles County (UCCE-LA), Cultivate Los Angeles, Accessed January 7, 2018, https://cultivatelosangeles.org/2017/01/11/cultivate-la-2016-is-live/

51 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS CLIMATE

Source: https://plus.google.com/photos/photo/106617173936806126885/6441005292313430226, 2017

52 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA RIVER WATERSHED MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 1981-2010

80.2°F / 26.8°C

Mean Annual High (67.1°F / 19.5°C)

Mean Annual Low (51.3°F / 10.7°C)

41.0°F / 5.0°C

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Mean Temperature: Annual, 2015

53 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA RIVER WATERSHED MINIMUM ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 1981-2010

80.2°F / 26.8°C

Min Annual High (56.5°F / 13.6°C)

Min Annual Low (41.0°F / 5.0°C) 41.0°F / 5.0°C

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Minimal Temperature: Annual, 2015

54 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA COUNTY MAXIMUM ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 1981-2010

Days > 95° F Past Future Business As Usual 1981-2000 2081-2100 San Fernando 54 126 Los Angeles 6 54 Long Beach 4 37 80.2°F / 26.8°C Max Annual High (80.2°F / 26.8°C)

Max Annual Low (61.0 °F / 16.1°C)

41.0°F / 5.0°C

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Maximum Temperature: Annual, 2015 &UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, The Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region Project, http://research.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl/LA_project_summary.html

55 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS LA COUNTY ANNUAL TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS GREATER IN THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY 1981-2010

59.4°F / 15.2°C

47.0°F / 8.3°C

Source: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Maximum and Minimal Temperature: Annual, 2015

56 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THE LA RIVER CROSSES 6 DISTINCT CLIMATE ZONES 18 20

2A: Cold mountain and intermountain areas 7: Southern California mountains 18 Above and below the thermal belts in Southern California’s interior valleys 19: Thermal belts around Southern California’s interior valleys 20: Cool winters in Southern California’s areas of occasional ocean influence 22 21: Thermal belts in Southern California’s areas of occasional ocean influence 22: Cold-winter portions of Southern California’s coastal climate 23: Thermal belts of Southern California’s coastal climate 24 24: Marine influence along the Southern California coast

Source: Sunset magzaine, Sunset Climate Zones, http://sunsetwesterngardencollection.com/climate-zones/zone/los-angeles-region, 2018

57 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS URBAN HEAT ISLAND HOTSPOTS 2015

High

Low

Source: Trust for Public Land, Climate Smart Cities Los Angeles, 2016

58 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THERE ARE 274 FACILITIES DEVOTED TO THE UNSHELTERED POPULATION

Homeless Shelters and Services Cooling and Warming Centers

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016

59 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HAZARDS

Source: University of Southern California. Libraries & California Historical Society , View of the flooded Los Angeles River, showing the Griffith Park airport, 1938

60 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HAZARDS IN LA COUNTY

High Risk Priority Moderate Risk Priority Low Risk Priority • Earthquake • Large Venue Fires • Biological/Agriculture • Wildland Fires • Transportation Incidents • Tsunami • WMD Terrorism • Hazardous Materials • Sinkholes/Subsidence • Utility Loss • Radiological Incident • Rise in Ground Water • Flood • Special events • Mine safety • Drought • Dam Failure • Volcano • Biological/Health • Landslides • Tornados • Water and Waste Water • Transportation Loss • Hurricanes • Economic Disruption • Explosion • Data/Telecommunications • Severe Weather • Civil Unrest

Source: Los Angeles County Chief Executive Office-Office of Emergency Management, All-Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2014 Most relevant to LARMP

61 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

Source: Robert A. Eplett, FEMA - 1766 - Photograph by Robert A. Eplett taken on 01-17-1994 in California, 1994

62 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS EARTHQUAKE FAULT ZONES, LIQUEFACTION, AND LANDSLIDE AREAS

Historic Earthquake Magnitudes 5-6 6-7 7+ Hazard Zones Primary Fault Zones Liquefaction Zones Landslide Zones Fault Lines (UCERF3)

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Seismic Hazards & California Department of Conservation, Historic Earthquakes, 1769-2015, Magnitude 5+ [MS48_HistoricEarthquakes]

63 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS WILDFIRE IMPACTS FOR THE LA RIVER CORRIDOR

Source: Flickr user Eric Beteille, 7:40 pm, May, 8, 2007

64 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HISTORICALLY FIRES OCCURRED NEAR THE LA RIVER THROUGHOUT THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS

Historic Fire Occurrences High (11) Low (1)

Source: State of California and the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection , Fire Perimeters Version 17_1, 2017

65 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS RECENTLY FIRES HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE LA RIVER AT GRIFFITH PARK

Fire Occurrences Since 2000 High (4) Low (1) Fires Occurrences Before 2000

Source: State of California and the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection , Fire Perimeters Version 17_1, 2017

66 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS 12 MILES OF THE LA RIVER ARE WITHIN OR ADJACENT TO A FIRE HAZARD SEVERITY ZONE

Highest Fire Hazard Severity Very High Fire Hazard Severity High Fire Hazard Severity Moderate Fire Hazard Severity

Source: State of California and the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

67 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS FLOOD IMPACTS FOR THE LA RIVER CORRIDOR

Source: Clarence Inman Collection, Floodwaters rushing along the Narrows southward under the Los Feliz Bridge in 1978. Accessed from: https://boomcalifornia.com/2013/06/17/showdown-at-the-glendale-narrows/

68 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS

Yearly annual average rainfall (Downtown City of Los Angeles) HISTORICAL FLASH RAIN Major storm and flooding events AND FLOOD EVENTS x Major droughts

40”

30”

20”

14.4” x x x x x AVG 10”

0” 1862 1884 1921 1939 1969 1983 2010 Noachian Deluge of Heavy winter Heavy Storm: Tropical Storm: Heavy Rains: El Nino: El Nino fuels California: storms: • 6.76” in LA • 5.42” in LA • 13.4” in 10 days • Up to 18” in 3 days winter storms: • downed trees • 30 consecutive days • mudslides in LA 1934 • 87 deaths in 1980 of rain wash away newly California and powerlines Major Storm: 6 Storms: • 35” in LA City laid railroad tracks 1938 •mud and debris • 7.36” in LA in 24 hours • 12.75” in 9 days • LA River mouth Los Angeles Basin Flood: flows prompted • 45 deaths regionally • 30 deaths regionally shifts from Venice to • 10” rain evacuation Wilmington • 115 deaths • 5,601 homes lost • $70 million damage

Source: Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018 & “A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California”, May 2016, https://www.weather.gov/media/sgx/documents/weatherhistory.pdf 69 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HISTORICAL

FLOODING AND Mapping of Extent RIVER PATHS PRIOR TO 1825

Areas Subject to Inundation Historic River Courses

Source: Based on Blake Gumprecht, “The Los Angeles River: Its Life, Death, and Possible Rebirth.”, 2001

70 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS FEMA FLOODPLAIN MAPPING i. Steady-state 1-D modeling of Los Angeles River with specific break out areas analyzed to determine flood plain.

100 Year Flood Plain (9.7 sq mi / 1.2% Basin) 500 Year Flood Plain (39.8 sq mi / 4.8% Basin)

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Flood Zones; The Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for Los Angeles County was issued by FEMA in 2008 and revised in 2016

71 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS USACE FLOODPLAIN MAPPING i. Unsteady 1-D modeling of Los Angeles River with full 2-D flood plain modeling. ii. Analyses limited to 13 miles between Barham Boulevard and First Street.

100 Year Floodplain 500 Year Floodplain

Source: USACE, Floodplain Management Services Special Study Los Angeles River Floodplain Analysis, October 2016; Mapping limited to area from Barham Boulevard to First Street)

72 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS ARkSTORM SCENARIO i. The ARkStorm is a hypothetical storm scenario based upon back-to-back atmospheric river (AR) events, using historical storm events from January 1969 and February 1986, simulated on a state-wide scale. ii. The scenario may represent an event as rare as 1 in 1000 years for parts of California, although the resulting rainfall in the Los Angeles region was determined to be similar to a 1 in 500 year event. iii. Detailed hydraulic modeling was not performed, but rather the resulting floodplains were based upon the FEMA 500-year floodplain. iv. The results are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be used to quantitatively assess flood risk. v. For more information see: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/

ARkStorm Scenario (USGS) ”Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’.”

Swain, Daniel L., Baird Langenbrunner, J. David Neelin, and Alex Hall, “Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California”, Nautre, 2018

Source: USGS, Summary map showing ARkStorm predictions for California, 2017, https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/summary-map-showing-arkstorm-predictions-california

73 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS TSUNAMI INUNDATION AREA

Tsunami Inundation Area (20 sq mi / 0.4% LA County)

Source: State of California, 2009, Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning, produced by California Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, and University of Southern California – Tsunami Research Center

74 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS 1.41 METER SEA LEVEL RISE WITH 100 YEAR COASTAL STORM EVENT i. The high-end SLR scenario (1.41 meter SLR) used in this study conforms with California’s Climate Change Assessments to date, which are estimated for California under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios (Bromirski et al. 2012). ii. There is uncertainty regarding the upper-bound or high-end for SLR by the end of the century and other studies have predicted higher estimates (NRC, 2012) of as much as 1.67 meters (CO-CAT 2013, p.2)

1.41 meter Sea Level Rise with 100 Year Coastal Storm Event (11 sq mi / 0.2% LA County)

Source: Cal-Adapt, Seal Level Rise Tool, 1.41 meters Sea Level Rise Scenario, 2018, Downloaded from:http://keystone.gisc.berkeley.edu/cec_gas_study_layers/South_coast/

75 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS FLOOD HAZARDS

100 Year Floodplain (FEMA & USACE) 500 Year Floodplain (FEMA & USACE) Tsunami Inundation Area (CalOES) 1.41 meter Sea Level Rise with 100 Year Storm Event (Cal-adapt)

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Flood Zones; The Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for Los Angeles County was issued by FEMA in 2008 and revised in 2016 & USACE, Floodplain Management Services Special Study Los Angeles River Floodplain Analysis, October 2016; Mapping limited to area from Barham Boulevard to First Street), & State of California, 2009, Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning, produced by California Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, and University of Southern Califor- nia – Tsunami Research Center Cal-Adapt, Seal Level Rise Tool, 1.41 meters Sea Level Rise Scenario, 2018, http://keystone.gisc.berkeley.edu/cec_gas_study_layers/South_coast/

76 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS MITIGATION SAVES MONEY

National Benefit-Cost Ratio Per Peril Federally Beyond Code *BCR numbers in this study have been rounded Funded Requirements Overall Hazard Benefit-Cost Ratio 6:1 4:1 Riverine Flood 7:1 5:1

Source: Multihazard Mitigation Council (2017) Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves 2017 Interim Report: An Independent Study. Footnotes: 1. Benefit-cost ratio for riverine flooding based on modeling of the 1% annual chance flood 77 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HUMAN HAZARDS FOR THE LA RIVER CORRIDOR

Source: Flickr User: Rod Ramsey, Los Angeles River, 2008

78 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS CONTAMINATED SITES ARE MORE CONCENTRATED ON THE LOWER HALF OF THE LA RIVER

Superfund Sites Brownfield Sites

Source: EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018

79 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SITES ARE MORE CONCENTRATED ON THE LOWER HALF OF THE LA RIVER

Toxic Release Facilities Large Quantity Hazardous Waste Generators All Hazardous Waste Facilities

Source: EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018

80 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS AVERAGE AIR QUALITY IS BETTER AT THE MOUTH AND HEADWATERS OF THE LA RIVER

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5): High (13 micro grams per cubic meter) Low (7 micro grams per cubic meter) Top Greenhouse Gas Emitting Facilties: High (6,335,059 metric tons of CO2) Low (9000 metric tons of CO2

Source: Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, 2017 & US Environmental Protection Agency, Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID), 2016

81 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RIVER IS MORE HIGHLY BURDENED BY ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH HAZARDS

CalEnviroScreen 3.0 More Burdened (90‑100th Percentile)

Less Burdened (0–9th Percentile) No Data

Source: Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, 2017

82 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS GREATEST ON THE LOWER HALF OF THE LA RIVER High Low 19 Factors: • Living Alone over 65 • Outdoor Workers • Population under 18 • Foreign Born • Renters • Lack Access to Grocery Stores • Households speaking little English • Overweight/Obese Youth • People of Color • Impervious Land Cover • Low Income • Treeless Area • Population w/o High School Diploma • Households without a Vehicle • Living in Group Quarters • Pre-term Birth Rate • Unemployed • Households without Air Conditioning • Women giving birth last 12 mos.

Source: Pacific Institute, Mapping Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in California, 2012

83 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS CRITICAL FACILITIES A structure or other improvement that, because of its function, size, service area, or uniqueness, has the potential to cause serious bodily harm, extensive property damage, or disruption of vital socioeconomic activities if it is destroyed or damaged or if its functionality is impaired.

Critical facility types based on: Los Angeles County Comprehensive Floodplain Management Plan, September 2016

Disaster and Emergency Operations Centers Police and Fire Stations Medical Facilities Schools Hazardous Facilities

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016 & EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018

84 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE A structure or other improvement that, because of its function, size, service area, or uniqueness, has the potential to cause serious bodily harm, extensive property damage, or disruption of vital socioeconomic activities if it is destroyed or damaged or if its functionality is impaired.

Critical infrastructure types based on: Los Angeles County Comprehensive Floodplain Management Plan, September 2016

Disaster Routes Transmission Lines Passenger Rail Wastewater Treatment Plants Electric Power Facilities Transit Facilities Bridges Freeway Exits Oil and Gas Facilities

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016 & Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Disaster Routes, 1998 & California Department of Transportation, California Rail Network, 2013 & EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018 & State of California Energy Commission, California Electric Transmission Line, 2018 & California Department of Conservation, All Wells, 2018

85 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS FLOOD HAZARDS & CRITICAL FACILITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE Disaster and Emergency Operations Centers Police and Fire Stations Medical Facilities Schools Hazardous Facilities 100 Year Floodplain (FEMA & USACE) 500 Year Floodplain (FEMA & USACE) Tsunami Inundation Area (CalOES) 1.41 meter Sea Level Rise with 100 Year Storm Event (Cal-adapt) Disaster Routes Transmission Lines Passenger Rail Wastewater Treatment Plants Transit Facilities Electric Power Facilities Bridges Oil and Gas Facilities Freeway Exits Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016 & Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Disaster Routes, 1998 & California Department of Transportation, California Rail Network, 2013 & EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018 & State of California Energy Commission, California Electric Transmission Line, 2018 & California Department of Conservation, All Wells, 2018 & Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Flood Zones; The Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for Los Angeles County was issued by FEMA in 2008 and revised in 2016 & USACE, Floodplain Management Services Special Study Los Angeles River Floodplain Analysis, October 2016; Mapping limited to area from Barham Boulevard to First Street), & State of California, 2009, Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning, produced by California Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, and University of Southern California – Tsunami Research Center Cal-Adapt, Seal Level Rise Tool, 1.41 meters Sea Level Rise Scenario, 2018, http://keystone.gisc.berkeley.edu/cec_gas_study_layers/South_coast/ 86 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THERE ARE NEARLY 4,500 CRITICAL FACILITIES IN FLOOD HAZARD AREAS IN LA COUNTY

WITHIN FLOOD HAZARD AREA TOTAL FACILITY DESCRIPTION FEMA 100-YR FEMA 500-YR TSUNAMI 1.41M SEA LEVEL ANY OF THE 4 FACILITIES FLOODPLAIN FLOODPLAIN INUNDATION RISE W/ 100-YR FLOOD HAZARD STORM EVENT AREAS EMERGENCY OPERATIONS FACILITIES 2 12 1 1 12 105 POLICE STATIONS 1 14 1 0 15 119

FIRE STATIONS 10 72 18 10 79 451

MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES 37 752 16 12 757 5,754

SCHOOLS 43 673 6 5 673 4,745

HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SITES 311 2,836 243 210 2,910 18,667

TOTALS 404 4,359 285 238 4,446 29,841

Note: Note that not all infrastructure and facilities in the flood hazard areas are directly caused by flooding from the LA River and some facilities are exposed to multiple types of flood hazard risk.

Calculated from: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Points of Interest, 2016 & Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Disaster Routes, 1998 & California Department of Transportation, California Rail Network, 2013 & EPA, FRS Geospatial Data, 2018 & State of California Energy Commission, California Electric Transmission Line, 2018 & Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Flood Zones; The Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for Los Angeles County was issued by FEMA in 2008 and revised in 2016 & USACE, Floodplain Management Services Special Study Los Angeles River Floodplain Analysis, October 2016; Mapping limited to area from Barham Boulevard to First Street), & tate of California, 2009, Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning, produced by California Emergency Management Agency, California Geological Survey, and University of Southern California – Tsunami Research Center Cal-Adapt, Seal Level Rise Tool, 1.41 meters Sea Level Rise Scenario, 2018, http://keystone.gisc.berkeley.edu/cec_gas_study_layers/South_coast/ 87 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS THE LA RIVER CROSSES 4 DISASTER MANAGEMENT ZONES

Zone A Zone B State of 88 Cities Zone C California of LA County Zone D Zone E 8 Zones Zone F Zone G Zone H Disaster Routes Emergency and Disaster Offices

Source: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Disaster Management Areas, 2015

88 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS RESILIENCE: FLOOD HAZARD AREAS

100 Year Floodplain FEMA 100 and 500 Year LA River USACE 100 and 500 Year LA River Composite FEMA & USACE 100 and 500 Year LA River 500 Year Floodplain Flood Hazard Area Left/Right Bank Flood Hazard Area Left/Right Bank Flood Hazard Area Left/Right Bank (acres) (acres) (acres) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 500 0 500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Canoga Park 51 51 50 49 48 Reseda 47 47 46 45 Van Nuys 44 44 43 42 Sherman Oaks 41 41 40 39 38 Studio City 37 37 36 35 34 Burbank 33 33 32 Glendale 31 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 Downtown LA 22 22 21 20 19 Vernon 18 18 17 16 15 Bell Gardens 14 14 13 South Gate 12 12 11 10 Compton 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Long Beach 0 0

Source: Calculated from: Los Angeles County GIS Data Portal, Flood Zones; The Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for Los Angeles County was issued by FEMA in 2008 and revised in 2016 & USACE, Floodplain Management Services Special Study Los Angeles River Floodplain Analysis, October 2016; Mapping limited to area from Barham Boulevard to First Street) 89 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS RESILIENCE: OTHER HAZARDS NEAR THE LA RIVER

Composite: Liquefaction Fire Severity Tsunami & Greenhouse Gas Urban Heat Social Hazardous Zones & Faults Zones Sea Level Rise Air Quality Emissions Island Vulnerability CalEnviroScreen Facilities

Canoga Park 51 51 50 49 48 Reseda 47 47 46 45 Van Nuys 44 44 43 42 Sherman Oaks 41 41 40 39 38 Studio City 37 37 36 35 34 Burbank 33 33 32 Glendale 31 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 Downtown LA 22 22 21 20 19 Vernon 18 18 17 16 15 Bell Gardens 14 14 13 South Gate 12 12 11 10 Compton 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Long Beach 0 0

90 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS HAZARDOUS FACILITIES: WITHIN 1 MILE OF LA RIVER

Large Quantity Composite: Hazardous Hazardous Waste Brownfield Wastewater Toxic Release Superfund Polluting Facilities Generators Site Treatment Plant Sites Sites Power Plants

91 SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE PROGRESS SUSTAINABILITY: WITHIN 1 MILE OF LA RIVER

Renewable LEED Energy Solar Energy Dry-Weather Wet-Weather Climate Zones Buildings Consumption Panels Power Plants Flow Flow

92 PROGRESS