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PROGRESS MEMORANDUM TO: Carolina 448 S. Hill St. 5900 Wilshire Blvd Suite 1008 Suite 401 Los Angeles, CA 90013 Los Angeles, CA 90036 310.957.6100 323.387.3598 www.geosyntec.com www.theolinstudio.com PROGRESS MEMORANDUM TO: Carolina Hernandez, P.E., Los Angeles County Public Works PROJECT: Los Angeles River Master Plan Update TASK NUMBER: 3.11 SUBJECT: Sustainability and Resilience SUBMITTED BY: Jessica M. Henson, RLA, ASLA, OLIN Mark Hanna, Ph.D., P.E Nate Wooten, RA, ASLA, AIA, OLIN Al Preston, Ph.D., P.E. DATE: 3 December 2018 MEMO NUMBER: 3.11-4 The following Progress Memorandum summarizes the significant findings for the Los Angeles River Master Plan Update Task 3.11 related to sustainability and resilience. Executive Summary The LA River is an underutilized asset whose stewardship should be guided through sustainable planning and resilient strategies that mitigate threats from a range of human and environmental hazards; however, its most critical function is to provide a protective and resilient flood management infrastructure. Currently, LA County is developing a comprehensive sustainability plan which will address “climate change, water, energy, resource management, land use, transportation, open space, biodiversity, public health, economy and workforce development, housing, resilience, and governance” with an equity lens.1 The LA River offers an opportunity to contribute to all the objectives identified but principally water, resource management, biodiversity, open space, and public health. The related topics of resilience and sustainability encapsulate a fundamental duality that is the LA River: a vital resource to sustain and a dynamic risk to manage. The original Pueblo de Los Angeles was settled just high enough above the river to be safe from the disturbance of seasonal floods, while close enough to benefit from a reliable supply of water in an otherwise arid landscape. This balancing act of positioning oneself to water is as critical to Los Angeles today as it was at its founding and is at the core of issues of sustainability and resilience along the LA River in the twenty-first century. However, there is a lot more to the sustainability and resilience of the LA River than just the water that 1 Los Angeles County Chief Sustainability Office, “Our County Info Sheet”, August 2018, https://ourcountyla.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Our-County-Info-Sheet.pdf. Progress Memorandum to Carolina Hernandez 3 December 2018 Page 2 flows down it. The river corridor’s larger context and many adjacencies intertwine it with a myriad of additional external forces, resources, risks, and opportunities. County Comprehensive Sustainability Planning Sustainability has been a driving ethos in environmental planning and policy, supplying guidelines to promote the management of resources in a way that guarantees the equitable welfare of current and future generations. Sustainability on the LA River is at once about maintaining the river as a natural resource, while also ensuring the river corridor’s broader potential to help sustain the communities that surround it. Los Angeles County launched a Chief Sustainability Office in 2016 and is currently in the process of creating the first Los Angeles Countywide Sustainability Plan, led by its Chief Sustainability Officer, Gary Gero. With an over-arching theme of equity, the plan intends to comprehensively address climate change, water, energy, resource management, land use, transportation, open space, biodiversity, public health, economy and workforce development, housing, resilience, and governance, throughout the entirety of the county.2 The County’s Sustainability Plan “Our County” joins a patchwork of sustainability plans at the municipal level and together should guide sustainability initiatives through the LA River Corridor. Resilience is defined by the capacity of a community to recover quickly from impacts related to significant adverse events. In the built environment and in a community, these events can occur as both shocks and stress. Shocks are single events such as an earthquake, wildfire or landslide, a failure of the power grid, a highway bridge collapse, or an act of violence or terrorism. Stresses are longer term changes such as climate change, worsening air quality, or slow economic shifts. The most important way to prepare for these challenges is through a combination of smart physical and social planning and policy that considers the everyday culture of a place. Recently, resilience planning in the county has been addressed through the Los Angeles County Community Climate Action Plan (2015), Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management, All Hazard Mitigation Plan (2014) and will be further addressed upon the completion of the ongoing Los Angeles Countywide Sustainability Plan, “Our County”. These county efforts are joined by resiliency planning, Climate Action Plans, and Sustainability Plans at the municipal level throughout the county. Together Sustainability Plans and Climate Action Plans support and ensure compliance with California State Assembly and State Senate Measures AB 32, AB 33, and SB 375.3 Collectively, these resilience and sustainability planning efforts help collect and implement policy and projects that will ensure the long-term vitality of the region, and therefore should be integrated with planning efforts along the LA River where appropriate. Climate, Hydrology, and Anticipating Climate Change The Los Angeles region is categorized as a Mediterranean climate, with ample sunshine and hot and dry summers and relatively cool and wet winters. The same elements responsible for this temperate 2 Los Angeles County Chief Sustainability Office, “Our County Info Sheet”, August 2018, https://ourcountyla.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Our-County-Info-Sheet.pdf. 3 Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability, “Climate Action Plans: An Overview”, Accessed from: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/525dcddce4b03a9509e033ab/t/54c044a5e4b056c8040ec38c/1421 886629045/CAPS+overview.pdf & J.R. DeShazo and Juan Matute, “Progress Report: Climate Action Planning in Southern California”, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. Progress Memorandum to Carolina Hernandez 3 December 2018 Page 3 mean climate also contribute to large annual fluctuations in extreme precipitation, prolonged drought, and extreme heat.4 More locally, elevation and proximity to the Pacific Ocean define distinct microclimates, which have a significant impact on both human comfort and ecology. The San Gabriel Mountains in the northern portion of the watershed, with peaks as high as 10,000 feet, experience the highest rates of precipitation and the coolest temperatures. Down in the valley, temperatures along the LA River corridor are generally much higher and precipitation much lower compared with the mountains; however, within the 51 miles and 790-foot drop in elevation of the LA River there are pronounced differences in temperature and precipitation. While mean temperatures appear constant along the river, the lower portion of the river averages as much as six inches less precipitation per year than the San Fernando Valley located in the upper more elevated portion of the river.5 Removed from the Pacific Ocean breezes by the Santa Monica Mountains, the San Fernando Valley experiences higher maximum temperatures and lower minimum temperatures compared to the more coastal Los Angeles Plain.6 While occasional extreme cold events can threaten vegetation, temperatures are historically mild enough to not be threatening to people. The extreme heat events are historically much more common in San Fernando Valley and are the greater threat to human health. Between 1981 and 2000 the valley averaged 54 days a year with temperatures above 95°F whereas Long Beach at the mouth of the LA River experienced only 4 days per year.7 Climate change is anticipated to dramatically increase these extreme heat events. For the period of 2081 to 2100 the San Fernando Valley is anticipated to see a 230% increase in days of 95°F compared with the period of 1981 to 2000 bringing the total up to 126 days per year, or 1 in every 3 days8. At Long Beach the total is projected to increase to 37 days per year, or 1 in every 10 days.9 While this is much lower than the San Fernando Valley’s projected total, it is a significant 1200% increase meaning communities along the lower river may be less prepared for hot days (e.g., less air- conditioning). Heat is further amplified in the city by the urban heat island effect (UHIE), where heat is amplified locally by heat-absorptive surfaces, heat-generating activities, the absence of vegetation, and high levels of air pollution, conditions common in areas adjacent to the river. Communities with higher social vulnerability (older and younger populations, homes without air conditioning, and areas with more outdoor workers, etc.) and areas with large unsheltered populations are particularly 4 Daniel L. Swain, Baird Langenbrunner, J. David Neelin, and Alex Hall, A. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first century California. Nature Climate Change 8, pages 427–433 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018- 0140-y (2018). 5 Calculated from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Precipitation, 2015 & Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018 6 Calculated from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 30-yr Normal Minimal Temperature, 2015 & Western Regional Climate Center, Cooperative Climatological Data Summaries, 2018 7 UCLA Dept. of
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