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Case Study of the Mangla Reservoir in Pakistan

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Case Study of the Mangla Reservoir in Pakistan http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/ Research Commons at the University of Waikato Copyright Statement: The digital copy of this thesis is protected by the Copyright Act 1994 (New Zealand). The thesis may be consulted by you, provided you comply with the provisions of the Act and the following conditions of use: Any use you make of these documents or images must be for research or private study purposes only, and you may not make them available to any other person. Authors control the copyright of their thesis. You will recognise the author’s right to be identified as the author of the thesis, and due acknowledgement will be made to the author where appropriate. You will obtain the author’s permission before publishing any material from the thesis. Reservoir Life Expectancy in Relation to Climate and Land-Use Changes: Case Study of the Mangla Reservoir in Pakistan A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Water Resources Engineering at The University of Waikato by Saleem Sarwar 2013 Abstract The dams and reservoirs are one of the largest sources to store surface water. The escalating water crisis in the new millennium has made it very important to preserve available water and in turn to preserve the storage capacity of dams and reservoirs. Dams and reservoirs lose their capacity due to sedimentation. Climate change and land-use changes have the potential to generate more sediment load hence accelerating this depleting process. An example is the Mangla Dam in Pakistan - the second largest dam in the country. Agriculture in the Punjab province, with almost 65% of the country’s population, is dependent on this dam. Due to sedimentation, the Mangla Reservoir has already lost 20% of its original storage capacity and an accelerated capacity loss is expected due to climate and land-use changes in the future. The main aim of this research is to develop an integrated framework, which incorporates hydrological and sediment models with climate and land-use components to assess the impacts on the Mangla Reservoir sedimentation and reservoir life. Economic analysis is incorporated to identify adaptation options in relation to climate change and land-use planning and management for sustainable development in the area. The research aims to provide a practical methodology relying on limited available data. The hydrologic model was calibrated for various reaches in the reservoir catchment for flows and sediment discharge. There is a close agreement between observed and simulated flow and sediment, and the overall trend of the observed flow hydrograph and sediment discharge is simulated well by the model. The assessment of climate change impacts on reservoir life requires a transient climate change scenario, since the reservoir is subject to continuing climate dynamics, and changes in any future time will have i compound effects on reservoir life. In addition to mean climate factors, climate change will have a more profound impact on climate variability, which will likely lead to a more intensified and frequent extreme rainfall events than is currently experienced. Rainfall is the main driving factor of river sediment load, especially extreme rainfall events, which can cause exceptionally high sediment load compared to normal rainfall events. Therefore impacts of climate change was investigated by transient climate change scenarios from 1980 to 2098 constructed through bias correction of General Circulation Models (GCM) daily simulation outputs for the observed weather stations in the catchment. Land-use change scenarios were generated for two broad conditions based on socio-economic data and physical factors influencing the land-use: (i) pro-agriculture scenario and (ii) pro-industrialization scenario. The impact of climate and land-use changes on the reservoir life was then investigated by using various combinations of climate change scenarios and land- use change scenarios. The results show that both climate and land-use changes can have significant impacts on the Mangla basin sediment transported by the river to the dam reservoir; climate change has a large impact on the annual sediment load, monthly variation in the sediment load, and in turn the reservoir life. The superimposed effects of land-use on climate change can exacerbate or reduce such impacts. Land-use change has the potential to effectively reduce climate change impacts. Therefore various land-use management measures were further evaluated based on economic analysis as adaptation options to mitigate the climate change impacts. ii Acknowledgments First of all the author would like to express his deep sense of profound gratitude to Allah who endowed him with the capabilities to complete this research study. A research of this size involves the invaluable contributions of many different people so it would not be possible without the support of many people. Your kindness, generosity and support made this three year study an enjoyable, learning and team building experience. I am deeply indebted to my wonderful supervisors, Dr Wei Ye, Prof Janet F. Bornman, Associate. Professor Brendan Hicks and Dr Yinpeng Li at the Science & Engineering Faculty, University of Waikato, for their highly professional advice, dynamic supervision, excellent guidance and consistent technical and moral support during the development of this study. I am extremely thankful to Dr Wei Ye and Prof Janet F. Bornman whose swift response on comments and guidance made completion of this study possible in time. Special acknowledgment to Dr Chonghua Yin for helping me with the climate change scenarios. I would like to express my sincere thanks to CLIMsystems for granting me a partial grant for this study and providing SimCLIM software for the climate change analysis. All the data I used for this study were collected with the help of colleagues and friends. My thanks to EngrShafiq, Executive engineer at WAPDA for helping me to gather large sets of hydrological and climate data. I would like to express my heartiest gratitude to the whole IGCC staff: Prof Neil Ericksen, Dr Peter Kouwenhoven, Dr Peter Urich, Prof Richard Warrick, Dr Lisa Storey, Matthew Dooley, Marian Holdaway and students (Chonghua, Meng and Electra) for their support and help. In addition, many thanks to my Hamilton friends Iqbal, Sohail, Salman, Noor, Khalid, Irfan and many others for their love iii and moral support in Hamilton, New Zealand. Thanks are also due to all my friends in Pakistan. Finally I express my gratitude to my beloved parents, brothers (Mushtaq, Sajjad and Salman), sisters, my wife and Muaz for their continuous moral and financial support, prayers and love throughout my career. I love you all. iv This PhD thesis is dedicated to my father, Ch Muhammad Sarwar and mother, Parveen Kausar v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION .................................................................. 1 1.1 Background and problem ....................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objectives of the study........................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research design and methodology ......................................................................... 5 1.4 Modules and models .............................................................................................. 6 1.4.1 Hydro/sediment routing-climatic module (HSRC) ............................................ 7 1.4.2 Socio-economic/land-use analysis module (SELU) .......................................... 9 1.4.3 Adaptation options analysis module (AOAM) ................................................ 12 1.5 Conceptual framework ......................................................................................... 14 1.6 Dissertation structure ........................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Overview of surface water issues in Pakistan ...................................................... 18 2.3 Reservoirs and sedimentation .............................................................................. 20 2.3.1 Sedimentation and land-use changes ............................................................... 21 2.3.2 Sedimentation and climate change .................................................................. 22 2.3.3 Pakistan and sedimentation problems.............................................................. 25 2.4 Assessment methodologies and model development ........................................... 26 2.5 Selection of the hydrologic model ....................................................................... 27 2.5.1 Assessment of the performance of SWAT for hydrological studies ............... 29 2.5.2 Description of the SWAT model ..................................................................... 31 2.5.3 Hydrological component of SWAT ................................................................. 33 2.5.4 Simulation capabilities .................................................................................... 34 2.5.5 SWAT sensitivity, calibration and validation .................................................. 35 2.5.6 Sensitivity analysis .......................................................................................... 35
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