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Savills Studley Insights August 25, 2014

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Savills Studley Insights August 25, 2014 Savills Studley Research Savills Studley Insights August 25, 2014 SHIFTS ALONG SIXTH AVENUE In Summary We re-examine a subset of midtown buildings located on and around Chart 1. Sixth Avenue Corridor Sixth Avenue within the Savills Buildings “Sixth Avenue rents seem Studley Westside I and Westside II to have some room to submarkets that we designate as the “Sixth Avenue Corridor” (Chart 1 and decline relative to rents RBA Bins Chart 2 on the following page). We show <100,000 SF 100,000 - 500,000 SF that the amount of space currently 500,001 - 1,000,000 SF in other parts of Midtown. 1,000,001 - 1,500,000 SF available via sublet has dramatically 1,500,001 - 2,000,000 SF 2,000,001 - 2,500,000 SF In addition, the supply of decreased over the past 4-6 quarters, >2,500,001 SF RBA (SF) and suggest that the decline in sublet ≤ 100,000 space that has already 500,000 supply, in addition to the increase in 1,000,000 1,500,000 direct Class A space relative to lower- 2,000,000 been committed to ≥ 2,500,000 quality (and lower-priced) Class B being vacated in the next and C space, explains some of the recent increase in average asking few years could further rents; the change in the type of space being offered, rather than a broad- impact the Corridor, but based increase in rents generally, has caused an upward shift in average time will tell.” prices. Tenants may benefit from the Greg Taubin, increase in space within the Corridor Executive Managing Director as several large office blocks become available over the next few years. Source: Savills Studley. Savills Studley | Economic Pulse The buildings along the Sixth Avenue Chart 2. Map of Westside Districts Corridor account for nearly 45.4 million square feet of office space, or 28% of the combined inventory in the Westside submarkets.1 The significant decline in the amount of available sublet space relative to direct space (Chart 3) has had a meaningful effect on overall asking rents, particularly given the gap in asking prices for direct vs. sublet space. Of the 52 buildings in the Sixth Avenue Corridor, 45 of the buildings are in the Westside I submarket, where we note that direct space commands a 20% premium in asking price versus space offered by sublet (Chart 4 on the following page). 1 We estimate there are 62.9 million square feet of inventory in the Westside I submarket and the 89.7 million square feet of Source: Savills Studley. inventory in the Westside II submarket. Chart 3. Direct and Sublet Space Available, Sixth Avenue Corridor 8,000,000 50% Sublet Total Avail SF 7,000,000 Direct Total Avail SF 45% Sublet Space as a % of Total Available Space 6,000,000 40% 5,000,000 35% 4,000,000 30% 3,000,000 25% 2,000,000 20% 1,000,000 15% 2005 3Q 2006 1Q 2006 3Q 2007 1Q 2007 3Q 2008 1Q 2008 3Q 2009 1Q 2009 3Q 2010 1Q 2010 3Q 2011 1Q 2011 3Q 2012 1Q 2012 3Q 2013 1Q 2013 3Q 2014 1Q Source: CoStar and Savills Studley. 02 August 25, 2014 Chart 4. Direct and Sublet Space Available, Westside I Savills Studley Submarket $/sf 90 Sublet Average Rate Direct Average Rate 80 70 Difference of $14.61 or 20% 60 50 40 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2012 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2014 1Q 2014 2Q Source:Source: CoStar CoStar and Savills and Studley. Savills Studley In addition to the fact that the percentage of total space available Table 1. Available Space By Type and Class: via sublet has fallen dramatically, we Sixth Avenue Corridor note that the level of supply of sublet space has fallen on an outright basis Available Space Q3 2011 Q2 2014 (Table 1). From Q3 2011 to the end of Q2 2014, the ratio of sublet space Sublet, Class A 1,848,791 1,031,635 to total space available dropped from 36% to 19%. While part of this Sublet, Class B/C 0 1,754 decline reflected the increase in direct space, a portion of the drop was Total Sublet 1,848,791 1,033,389 due to the almost 45% reduction in sublet space available on an outright Direct, Class A 3,189,226 4,413,465 basis. Not surprisingly, the average asking rent on Sixth Avenue space Direct, Class B/C 117,153 66,512 has increased not only because a greater fraction of space is relatively Total Direct 3,306,379 4,479,977 more expensive direct space, but Fraction of Space Available by Sublet: 36% 19% also because of a shift in quality of available direct space: the amount of Total Available Space 5,155,170 5,513,366 direct Class B/C space fell by 43%, while the amount of higher-priced Class A space rose by 38%. Source: CoStar and Savills Studley. savills-studley.com/research 03 Savills Studley | Economic Pulse Table 2. Major Space Additions (> 20,000 sf) in the Sixth Avenue Corridor Via Sublet Offerings, Last Four Quarters Square Feet Available by Total Rentable Area, Current Date Address Sublet (Floor Number) Square Feet Status Q2 2013 1185 Avenue of the Americas 27,508 (10) 1,088,690 Subleased Q2 2013 1185 Avenue of the Americas 55,016 (4 and 19) 1,088,690 Still available Q2 2013 1301 Avenue of the Americas 30,518 (44) 1,800,000 Subleased Q2 2013 1301 Avenue of the Americas 30,801 (36) 1,800,000 Subleased Q3 2013 1133 Avenue of the Americas 22,915 (33) 1,100,000 Still available Q3 2013 114 West 41st Street 79,565 (4-8) 333,901 Withdrawn Q3 2013 1290 Avenue Of the Americas 83,452 (4-5) 2,001,966 Subleased Q4 2013 1185 Avenue of the Americas 117,112 (30-33) 1,088,690 Still available Q1 2014 31 West 52nd Street 115,230 (25-29) 723,000 Still available Q1 2014 1166 Avenue of the Americas 241,440 (14-19) 1,556,174 Subleased Q2 2014 1185 Avenue of the Americas 58,332 (38-39) 1,088,690 Still available Q2 2014 1155 Avenue of the Americas 102,014 (5-8) 790,000 Withdrawn Q2 2014 1345 Avenue of the Americas 41,613 (22) 1,998,994 Still available Q2 2014 1345 Avenue of the Americas 29,437 (4) 1,998,994 Still available Source: CoStar and Savills Studley. While there are many large parcels of contiguous space that remain Chart 5. Weighted Average Time on Market for Westside I Relet on the market in the Sixth Avenue and Sublet Available Space, August 2014* Corridor (Table 2), we highlight that 3% of total relet and sublet space sub-landlords are likely not in any 16% of total relet and 70% of total relet and sublet space 238 sublet space rush to reduce asking prices; there days 297 days are no sublet blocks of space greater 10% of total relet and 368 days than 100,000 square feet available sublet space in either the Downtown or Midtown South markets at present. Landlords 525 days offering space directly appear to be in no hurry to sign new tenants either. As of August 2014, direct Class A space in the Westside I submarket has been Relet A Relet B/C Sublet A Sublet B/C on the market 75% longer than Class Source: CoStar and Savills Studley. A space being offered by sublet (Chart * Excludes any property scheduled to deliver more than 12 months in the future and any new construction. Excludes all spaces that have been on the market for more than 3 years (i.e., listings that may be stale.) 5). Moreover, currently available relet Analysis as of August 6th, 2014. space in Westside I —whether Class A or all classes—has been on the market relevant. However, as shown in Table 4 measured in square feet) in almost five longer than available space in any on the following page, with the exception years. With direct space languishing other Midtown submarket (Table 3 on of the Grand Central I submarket, on the market and a lack of large- the following page). In an environment the Westside I submarket—of which block supply in Manhattan’s other where available space is being quickly the Sixth Avenue Corridor space is sub-markets, the remaining sublet depleted, the length of time on market primarily composed—has had virtually space along Sixth Avenue may look for the space that remains may be less no change in available space (as that much more attractive. 04 August 25, 2014 Even with sublet space priced at a discount, however, the shorter Table 3. Weighted Average Time on Market for Midtown Relet duration on a sublet lease often makes Space by Class, August 2014* the cost of relocation and a build- out prohibitive, particularly without Submarket Space and Class Type** Days on Market Relet A 525 the tenant improvement allowance Westside I and free rent that accompanies a All Relet 506 direct lease. Moreover, there is some Relet A 382 Westside II evidence that landlords have been All Relet 347 hesitant to reduce base asking rents Relet A 459 even for space that has been on the Plaza I market for an extended period of All Relet 433 time. For the 61 Westside I spaces Relet A 370 Plaza II with asking rents that have been on All Relet 424 the market for a full year or more, only Relet A 497 7 saw a decline in asking rents over Grand Central I All Relet 468 the past 12 months.
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