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The Rise of China's Supercities: New Era of Urbanization

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The Rise of China's Supercities: New Era of Urbanization M BLUEPAPER October 10, 2019 08:00 PM GMT China The Rise of China's Supercities: New Era of Urbanization e believe Urbanization 2.0 will fuel productivity growth, allowing China to attain high-income status. By 2030 we expect the average size of the country's five Wsupercities to reach 120mn, an 8.5x increase in commuter rail length, and a tripling of the IoT and data market to almost US$1trn. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. M BLUEPAPER Contributors MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Robin Xing Gary Yu Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Equity Analyst Economist +852 2848-6511 +852 2848-6918 +852 3963-4015 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+ Shawn Kim Laura Wang Sharon Shih Equity Analyst Equity Strategist Equity Analyst +852 3963-1005 +852 2848-6853 +886 2 2730-2865 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Charlie Chan Tim Hsiao Jack Yeung Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst +886 2 2730-1725 +852 2848-1982 +852 2239-7843 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Kevin Luo, CFA Jenny Jiang, CFA Grace Chen Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst +852 2239-1527 +852 2848-7152 +852 2848-5835 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Elly Chen Lillian Lou Simon H.Y. Lee, CFA Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst +852 3963-0122 +852 2848-6502 +852 2848-1985 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Richard Xu, CFA Rachel L Zhang Sheng Zhong Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst +852 2848-6729 +852 2239-1520 +852 2239-7821 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Sean Wu Qianlei Fan, CFA Jack Lu Equity Analyst Equity Analyst Equity Analyst +852 3963-0755 +852 2239-1875 +852 2848-5044 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Praveen K Choudhary Zhipeng Cai Equity Analyst Economist +852 2848-5068 +852 2239-7820 [email protected] [email protected] M BLUEPAPER Contents 5 Preface 91 2d. Banks 6 Key Charts at a Glance 97 2e. Insurance 9 Executive Summary 102 2f. Agribusiness 18 China's Path to Urbanization 2.0 106 Investment Theme #3: New Lifestyles in Smart Supercities 27 Initiative #1: City Clusters 107 3a. Transportation 34 Initiative #2: Smart Cities 111 3b. China Property 52 Initiative #3: Agricultural Modernization 117 3c. Hong Kong Property Companies 58 Investment Theme #1: From a Consumer to an Industrial Internet 121 3d. Materials 59 1a. Telecoms 125 3e. Consumer IoT 63 1b. Internet 132 3f. Education 71 1c. Tech Hardware and Software 139 3g. Healthcare 78 Investment Theme #2: Digitalization of Old- 141 3h. Macau Gaming Economy Industries 144 3i. Tourism 79 2a. Autos 148 Summary of Stocks Exposed to Urbanization 2.0 83 2b. Logistics 88 2c. Utilities and Power Equipment MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH 3 M BLUEPAPER Other Contributors Equity Strategy Fran Chen Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Strategist [email protected] +852 2848-7135 Telecoms and Communication Yang Liu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-1911 Camille Xu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 3963-0692 Sara Wang Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-1230 Internet Eddy Wang, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-7339 Alex Poon Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 3963-3838 Steven Tsai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2848-7217 Alex Ko Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-1225 Technology Yunchen Tsai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848-5636 Howard Kao Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +886 2 2730-2989 Ray Wu, CFA Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +886 2 2730-2871 Daniel Yen, CFA Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +886 2 2730-2863 Lily Chou Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +886 2 2730-2869 Daisy Dai, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2848-7310 Jeff Hsu Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +886 2 2730-2864 Tony Shen Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2848-5657 Autos Shelley Wang, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 3963-0047 Frank Wan Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-1229 Logistics JunYi Yu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-7817 Utilities and Power Equipment Eva Hou Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848 6964 Banks Anil Agarwal Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848-5842 Katherine Liu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-1924 Lu Lu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-1568 John Cai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-1885 Joey Xu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 3963-0337 Insurance Green Cai Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2848-5686 Birlina Qi Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 3963-4087 Capital Goods and Construction Hangjie Chen Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848-7168 China Property Chloe Liu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848-5497 Cara Zhu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2848-7117 Ziya Zhou Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 3963-0322 Consumers Hanli Fan, CFA Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 3963-1017 Education Elsie Sheng Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 3963-0475 Healthcare Yolanda Hu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848-5649 Laurence Tam Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-1753 Ethan Ding Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 3963-0546 Alexis Yan Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-7953 Materials Sean Xiang Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2848-8154 Hannah Yang Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-7079 HK Real Estate and Macau Gaming Hildy Ling Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Equity Analyst [email protected] +852 2239-7834 Dan Xu Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2239-1227 Gareth Leung Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Research Associate [email protected] +852 2848-7339 4 M BLUEPAPER Preface Can China maintain a relatively fast pace of growth amid the chal- safer than ever, while electric vehicles and green energy sources lenges of slowing globalization and aging demographics? Since we reduce pollution. This will enhance the population capacity of cities. last wrote in-depth on China's journey to a high-income economy in November 2017, globalization has been hampered by tariffs and What could this mean for the economy? other barriers. As the working-age population declines, demographic headwinds will also continue to exert a drag on economic growth. We We estimate that Urbanization 2.0 will attract an additional 220mn believe the answer to these challenges
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