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When Does Behavioural Economics Really Matter?
When does behavioural economics really matter? Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development (www.cpd.org.au) Paper to accompany presentation to Behavioural Economics stream at Australian Economic Forum, August 2010. Summary Behavioural economics integrates the formal study of psychology, including social psychology, into economics. Its empirical base helps policy makers in understanding how economic actors behave in response to incentives in market transactions and in response to policy interventions. This paper commences with a short description of how behavioural economics fits into the general discipline of economics. The next section outlines the development of behavioural economics, including its development from considerations of individual psychology into the fields of neurology, social psychology and anthropology. It covers developments in general terms; there are excellent and by now well-known detailed descriptions of the specific findings of behavioural economics. The final section examines seven contemporary public policy issues with suggestions on how behavioural economics may help develop sound policy. In some cases Australian policy advisers are already using the findings of behavioural economics to advantage. It matters most of the time In public policy there is nothing novel about behavioural economics, but for a long time it has tended to be ignored in formal texts. Like Molière’s Monsieur Jourdain who was surprised to find he had been speaking prose all his life, economists have long been guided by implicit knowledge of behavioural economics, particularly in macroeconomics. Keynes, for example, understood perfectly the “money illusion” – people’s tendency to think of money in nominal rather than real terms – in his solution to unemployment. -
The Process of Inflation Expectations' Formation
The Process of Inflation Expectations’ * Formation Anna Loleyt** Ilya Gurov*** Bank of Russia July 2010 Abstract The aim of the investigation is to classify and systematize groups of economic agents with different types of inflation expectations in information economy. Particularly it’s found out that it is not feasible to exclude the possibility of current signals perception by economic agents. The analysis has also shown that there is an uncertainty in economy when authorities redeem monetary policy promises, but their action wouldn’t influence on average inflation expectations of economic agents. The investigation results testify the flat existence of agents in economy which are characterizing with rational, quasi-adaptive (including adaptive) and also arbitral inflation expectations. Keywords: information economy, information signal, information perception, agent belief in information, inflation expectations, quasi-adaptive expectations, arbitral expectations. *Acknowledgments: The first authors gratefully acknowledge support through the Bank of Russia. Especially we would like to thank Mr. Alexey V. Ulyukaev for helpful research assistance and Mrs. Nadezhda Yu. Ivanova for strong support. We are also grateful to Mr. Sergey S. Studnikov for his comments. **General Economic Department, Bank of Russia, 12 Neglinnaya Street, Moscow, 107016 Russia Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Email: [email protected] ***General Economic Department, Bank of Russia, 12 Neglinnaya Street, Moscow, 107016 Russia Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia Email: [email protected] Abbreviations: a variety of information signals. W an element of a variety of information signals that is an information signal. w economic agents. x q a number of signals. -
Understanding Development and Poverty Alleviation
14 OCTOBER 2019 Scientific Background on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2019 UNDERSTANDING DEVELOPMENT AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION The Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel THE ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, founded in 1739, is an independent organisation whose overall objective is to promote the sciences and strengthen their influence in society. The Academy takes special responsibility for the natural sciences and mathematics, but endeavours to promote the exchange of ideas between various disciplines. BOX 50005 (LILLA FRESCATIVÄGEN 4 A), SE-104 05 STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN TEL +46 8 673 95 00, [email protected] WWW.KVA.SE Scientific Background on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2019 Understanding Development and Poverty Alleviation The Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel October 14, 2019 Despite massive progress in the past few decades, global poverty — in all its different dimensions — remains a broad and entrenched problem. For example, today, more than 700 million people subsist on extremely low incomes. Every year, five million children under five die of diseases that often could have been prevented or treated by a handful of proven interventions. Today, a large majority of children in low- and middle-income countries attend primary school, but many of them leave school lacking proficiency in reading, writing and mathematics. How to effectively reduce global poverty remains one of humankind’s most pressing questions. It is also one of the biggest questions facing the discipline of economics since its very inception. -
Regulatory Growth Theory
Regulatory Growth Theory Danxia Xie Tsinghua University December 31, 2017 Abstract This research explores and quantifies the downside of innovations, especially the negative externality of an innovation interacting with the stock of existing innovations. Using two novel datasets, I find that the number of varieties of innovation risks is quadratic in the varieties of innovations that caused them. Based on this new empirical fact, I develop a Regulatory Growth Theory: a new growth model with innovation-induced risks and with a regulator. I model both the innovation risk generating structure and the regulator’sendoge- nous response. This new theory can help to interpret several empirical puzzles beyond the explanatory power of existing models of innovations: (1) skyrocketing expected R&D cost per innovation and (2) exponentially increasing regulation over time. Greater expenditures on regulation and corporate R&D are required to assess the net benefit of an innovation because of “Risk Externality”: negative interaction effects between innovations. The rise of regulation versus litigation, and broader implications for regulatory reform are also discussed. Address: Institute of Economics, Tsinghua University, China. The author’s e-mail address is [email protected]. I am grateful to Gary Becker, Casey Mulligan, Randy Kroszner, Tom Philipson, and Eric Posner for invaluable advice. Also thank Ufuk Akcigit, Olivier Blanchard, Will Cong, Steve Davis, Jeffrey Frankel, Matt Gentzkow, Yehonatan Givati, Michael Greenstone, Lars Hansen, Zhiguo He, Chang- Tai Hsieh, Chad Jones, Greg Kaplan, John List, Bob Lucas, Joel Mokyr, Roger Myerson, Andrei Shleifer, Hugo Sonnenschein, Nancy Stokey, and Hanzhe Zhang for very helpful suggestions and discussions. An early version was presented at Econometric Society 2015 World Congress, Montreal. -
Freakonomics: a Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything By Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner New York City, William Morrow 2005 242pp, $51.95, ISBN 0 06 073132X The University of Chicago has a tradition of producing economists that push the boundaries of the discipline. This is the school that nurtured innovative and iconoclastic thinkers such as Milton Friedman (on macroeconomic stabilisation policy), Robert Lucas (on the use of ‘rational’ rather than Keynesian ‘adaptive’ expectations) and Gary Becker (on the economics of the family). Steven Levitt and his journalist co-author, Stephen Dubner, appear to be following this tradition by publishing a book that deals with a range of topics that do not fall within the realm of mainstream economics—hence the book’s title. Freakonomics can best be described as a sort of Bill Bryson guide to applied social science. It considers a number of disparate behavioural phenomena and seeks to make sense of them, sometimes drawing on economic hypotheses but always relying heavily on data. It is the emphasis on data that is the book’s strongest feature. Levitt and Dubner discuss innovative techniques for identifying match-rigging by sumo wrestlers, cheating by Chicago school teachers, the impact of parents on children’s school test scores and other diverse topics. The approach used to test sumo match-rigging is especially fascinating and is compulsory reading for anyone planning to sit a graduate job interview for McKinsey. Levitt and Dubner explain that the top wrestlers compete in tournaments six times a year. Each tournament comprises fifteen matches. -
Development Economics Fall 2015 Economics 2390 Monday and Wednesday 1:00-2:30Pm Class Location: Sever Hall 102 Version: September 2, 2015
Development Economics Fall 2015 Economics 2390 Monday and Wednesday 1:00-2:30pm Class Location: Sever Hall 102 Version: September 2, 2015 Michael Kremer M-20, Littauer Center Department of Economics [email protected] Office Hours: Mondays 4:00-5:00 Email Jeanne Winner [email protected] for appointment Shawn Cole 271 Baker Library, HBS [email protected] Office Hours: By appointment (please email Brian O’Connor: [email protected]) Teaching Assistant: Jack Willis [email protected] Skype: Jack.J.Willis Office Hours: TBA Prerequisites: This will be a technical class and non-Ph.D. students are not permitted to enroll. Ph.D. students are required to have taken or be concurrently taking PhD level microeconomics and econometrics. If you are not a Ph.D. student in economics or public policy then please contact us before enrolling. This class contributes to the fulfillment of requirements for the Development field for Economics Ph.D. students Broad Overview: This class is intended to teach the foundations for doing research in Development Economics. As such it will teach in detail empirical methods and theoretical models which are applied widely across the discipline. Part 1 (taught by Michael Kremer) will set the scene for the class. It will begin with a look at global differences in living standards and then present classical empirical work in macro development which attempts to quantify the roles of differences in capital, human capital and productivity. Next the class will focus in on capital and introduce a research agenda which aims to bridge the gap between growth theory and modern micro development research. -
The Chilean Experience with Price-Cap Regulation [With Comments] Author(S): Rafael Di Tella, Alexander Dyck, Alexander Galetovic and William W
Cost Reductions, Cost Padding, and Stock Market Prices: The Chilean Experience with Price-Cap Regulation [with Comments] Author(s): Rafael Di Tella, Alexander Dyck, Alexander Galetovic and William W. Hogan Source: Economía, Vol. 8, No. 2 (Spring, 2008), pp. 155-196 Published by: Brookings Institution Press Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20065527 Accessed: 22-11-2019 16:55 UTC JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at https://about.jstor.org/terms Brookings Institution Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Economía This content downloaded from 206.253.207.235 on Fri, 22 Nov 2019 16:55:23 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms RAFAEL DI TELLA ALEXANDER DYCK Cost Reductions, Cost Padding, and Stock Market Prices: The Chilean Experience with Price-Cap Regulation Every four years, you feel you are going to war. Alejandro Jadresic, former Minister of Energy of Chile The flaws of traditional rate-of-return regulation are well known. They include a lack of incentives to reduce costs, as well as a tendency for firms to choose the wrong mix of inputs and to misreport costs in order to inflate the revenues allowed by the regulator. -
Putting Auction Theory to Work
Putting Auction Theory to Work Paul Milgrom With a Foreword by Evan Kwerel © 2003 “In Paul Milgrom's hands, auction theory has become the great culmination of game theory and economics of information. Here elegant mathematics meets practical applications and yields deep insights into the general theory of markets. Milgrom's book will be the definitive reference in auction theory for decades to come.” —Roger Myerson, W.C.Norby Professor of Economics, University of Chicago “Market design is one of the most exciting developments in contemporary economics and game theory, and who can resist a master class from one of the giants of the field?” —Alvin Roth, George Gund Professor of Economics and Business, Harvard University “Paul Milgrom has had an enormous influence on the most important recent application of auction theory for the same reason you will want to read this book – clarity of thought and expression.” —Evan Kwerel, Federal Communications Commission, from the Foreword For Robert Wilson Foreword to Putting Auction Theory to Work Paul Milgrom has had an enormous influence on the most important recent application of auction theory for the same reason you will want to read this book – clarity of thought and expression. In August 1993, President Clinton signed legislation granting the Federal Communications Commission the authority to auction spectrum licenses and requiring it to begin the first auction within a year. With no prior auction experience and a tight deadline, the normal bureaucratic behavior would have been to adopt a “tried and true” auction design. But in 1993 there was no tried and true method appropriate for the circumstances – multiple licenses with potentially highly interdependent values. -
Behavioral Law & Economics and Consumer Financ
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Behavioral Economics Symposium Panel 2: Behavioral Law & Economics and Consumer Financial Protection The Role of Behavioral Economics in Consumer Protection Policy: Reflections of a Consumer Economist Janis K. Pappalardo, Ph.D.1 Assistant Director, Division of Consumer Protection Bureau of Economics, Federal Trade Commission Washington, DC September 19, 2019 1 The views expressed are those of the author and may not reflect the views of the Federal Trade Commission or any individual Commissioner. This statement draws from my prior work. I thank Jason Chen and Scott Syms for research assistance and many colleagues who have contributed to my understanding of this topic over the years, but I am responsible for any errors. Background on my Perspective Let me tell you a bit about my experience to shed light on my perspective. I joined the Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Economics, Division of Consumer Protection in 1986 immediately after obtaining a Ph.D. from Cornell University with a major field in consumer economics and minor fields in industrial organization and statistics. As a staff economist, I analyzed consumer protection legal and policy matters related to unfair or deceptive practices, provided expert declarations for litigation, and conducted research on information regulation. I have published work in the American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, Journal of Consumer Affairs, Antitrust Law Journal, Review of Industrial Organization, and Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, from which I received two outstanding article awards. I serve on the editorial review boards of the Journal of Consumer Affairs and the Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, and I am co-editing a symposium on the economics of consumer protection for Economic Inquiry. -
Measuring the Impact of Crack Cocaine
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MEASURING THE IMPACT OF CRACK COCAINE Roland G. Fryer, Jr. Paul S. Heaton Steven D. Levitt Kevin M. Murphy Working Paper 11318 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11318 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2005 We would like to thank Jonathan Caulkins, John Donohue, Lawrence Katz, Glenn Loury, Derek Neal, Bruce Sacerdote, Sudhir Venkatesh, and Ebonya Washington for helpful discussions on this topic. Elizabeth Coston and Rachel Tay provided exceptional research assistance. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Sherman Shapiro, the American Bar Foundation, and the National Science Foundation. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2005 by Roland G. Fryer, Paul S. Heaton, Steven D. Levitt, and Kevin M. Murphy. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Measuring the Impact of Crack Cocaine Roland G. Fryer, Paul S. Heaton, Steven D. Levitt, and Kevin M. Murphy NBER Working Paper No. 11318 May 2005 JEL No. J00 ABSTRACT A wide range of social indicators turned sharply negative for Blacks in the late 1980s and began to rebound roughly a decade later. We explore whether the rise and fall of crack cocaine can explain these patterns. Absent a direct measure of crack cocaine’s prevalence, we construct an index based on a range of indirect proxies (cocaine arrests, cocaine-related emergency room visits, cocaine- induced drug deaths, crack mentions in newspapers, and DEA drug busts). -
The Case of Nepal Page 20 Shikha Silwal
The Economics of Vol. 8, No. 2 (2013) Peace and Security Articles Journal William C. Bunting on conflict over fundamental rights © www.epsjournal.org.uk Boris Gershman on envy and conflict ISSN 1749-852X Shikha Silwal on the spatial-temporal spread of civil war in Nepal A publication of Smita Ramnarain on the role of women’s cooperatives in Nepalese Economists for Peace peacebuilding and Security (U.K.) Guro Lien on the political economy of security sector reform Editors Jurgen Brauer, Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA, USA J. Paul Dunne, University of Cape Town, South Africa The Economics of Peace and Security Journal © www.epsjournal.org.uk, ISSN 1749-852X A publication of Economists for Peace and Security (U.K.) Editors Aims and scope Jurgen Brauer Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA, USA This journal raises and debates all issues related to the political economy of personal, communal, national, J. Paul Dunne international, and global conflict, peace and security. The scope includes implications and ramifications of University of Cape Town, South Africa conventional and nonconventional conflict for all human and nonhuman life and for our common habitat. Web editor Special attention is paid to constructive proposals for conflict resolution and peacemaking. While open to Thea Harvey-Barratt Economists for Peace and Security, Annandale-upon- noneconomic approaches, most contributions emphasize economic analysis of causes, consequences, and Hudson, NY, USA possible solutions to mitigate conflict. Book review editor The journal is aimed at specialist and nonspecialist readers, including policy analysts, policy and Elisabeth Sköns decisionmakers, national and international civil servants, members of the armed forces and of peacekeeping Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, services, the business community, members of nongovernmental organizations and religious institutions, and Stockholm, Sweden others. -
3 Nobel Laureates to Honor UCI's Duncan Luce
3 Nobel laureates to honor UCI’s Duncan Luce January 25th, 2008 by grobbins Three recent winners of the Nobel Prize in economics will visit UC Irvine today and Saturday to honor mathematician-psychologist Duncan Luce, who shook the economics world 50 years ago with a landmark book on game theory. Game theory is the mathematical study of conflict and interaction among people. Luce and his co-author, Howard Raiffa, laid out some of the most basic principles and insights about the field in their book, “Games and Decisions: Introductions and Critical Survey.” That book, and seminal equations Luce later wrote that helped explain and predict a wide range of human behavior, including decision-making involving risk, earned him the National Medal of Science, which he received from President Bush in 2005. (See photo.) UCI mathematican Don Saari put together a celebratory conference to honor both Luce and Raiffa, and he recruited some of the world’s best-known economic scientists. It’s one of the largest such gatherings since UCI hosted 17 Nobel laureates in October 1996. “Luce and Raiffa’s book has been tremendously influential and we wanted to honor them,” said Saari, a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Luce said Thursday night, “This is obviously very flattering, and it’s amazing that the book is sufficiently alive that people would want to honor it.” The visitors scheduled to attended the celebratory conference include: Thomas Schelling, who won the 2005 Nobel in economics for his research on game theory Roger Myerson and Eric Maskin, who shared the 2007 Nobel in economics for their work in design theory.