Chapter 11 Eric S. Maskin
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Regulatory Growth Theory
Regulatory Growth Theory Danxia Xie Tsinghua University December 31, 2017 Abstract This research explores and quantifies the downside of innovations, especially the negative externality of an innovation interacting with the stock of existing innovations. Using two novel datasets, I find that the number of varieties of innovation risks is quadratic in the varieties of innovations that caused them. Based on this new empirical fact, I develop a Regulatory Growth Theory: a new growth model with innovation-induced risks and with a regulator. I model both the innovation risk generating structure and the regulator’sendoge- nous response. This new theory can help to interpret several empirical puzzles beyond the explanatory power of existing models of innovations: (1) skyrocketing expected R&D cost per innovation and (2) exponentially increasing regulation over time. Greater expenditures on regulation and corporate R&D are required to assess the net benefit of an innovation because of “Risk Externality”: negative interaction effects between innovations. The rise of regulation versus litigation, and broader implications for regulatory reform are also discussed. Address: Institute of Economics, Tsinghua University, China. The author’s e-mail address is [email protected]. I am grateful to Gary Becker, Casey Mulligan, Randy Kroszner, Tom Philipson, and Eric Posner for invaluable advice. Also thank Ufuk Akcigit, Olivier Blanchard, Will Cong, Steve Davis, Jeffrey Frankel, Matt Gentzkow, Yehonatan Givati, Michael Greenstone, Lars Hansen, Zhiguo He, Chang- Tai Hsieh, Chad Jones, Greg Kaplan, John List, Bob Lucas, Joel Mokyr, Roger Myerson, Andrei Shleifer, Hugo Sonnenschein, Nancy Stokey, and Hanzhe Zhang for very helpful suggestions and discussions. An early version was presented at Econometric Society 2015 World Congress, Montreal. -
TECHNOLOGY and GROWTH: an OVERVIEW Jeffrey C
Y Proceedings GY Conference Series No. 40 Jeffrey C. Fuhrer Jane Sneddon Little Editors CONTENTS TECHNOLOGY AND GROWTH: AN OVERVIEW Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and Jane Sneddon Little KEYNOTE ADDRESS: THE NETWORKED BANK 33 Robert M. Howe TECHNOLOGY IN GROWTH THEORY Dale W. Jorgenson Discussion 78 Susanto Basu Gene M. Grossman UNCERTAINTY AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 91 Nathan Rosenberg Discussion 111 Joel Mokyr Luc L.G. Soete CROSS-COUNTRY VARIATIONS IN NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES," THE ROLE OF aTECHNOLOGYtr 127 J. Bradford De Long~ Discussion 151 Jeffrey A. Frankel Adam B. Jaffe ADDRESS: JOB ~NSECURITY AND TECHNOLOGY173 Alan Greenspan MICROECONOMIC POLICY AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE 183 Edwin Mansfield Discnssion 201 Samuel S. Kortum Joshua Lerner TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: THE GEOGRAPHIC DIMENSION 215 Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest Discussion 260 John C. Haltiwanger George N. Hatsopoulos PANEL DISCUSSION 269 Trends in Productivity Growth 269 Martin Neil Baily Inherent Conflict in International Trade 279 Ralph E. Gomory Implications of Growth Theory for Macro-Policy: What Have We Learned? 286 Abel M. Mateus The Role of Macroeconomic Policy 298 Robert M. Solow About the Authors Conference Participants 309 TECHNOLOGY AND GROWTH: AN OVERVIEW Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and Jane Sneddon Little* During the 1990s, the Federal Reserve has pursued its twin goals of price stability and steady employment growth with considerable success. But despite--or perhaps because of--this success, concerns about the pace of economic and productivity growth have attracted renewed attention. Many observers ruefully note that the average pace of GDP growth has remained below rates achieved in the 1960s and that a period of rapid investment in computers and other capital equipment has had disappointingly little impact on the productivity numbers. -
Putting Auction Theory to Work
Putting Auction Theory to Work Paul Milgrom With a Foreword by Evan Kwerel © 2003 “In Paul Milgrom's hands, auction theory has become the great culmination of game theory and economics of information. Here elegant mathematics meets practical applications and yields deep insights into the general theory of markets. Milgrom's book will be the definitive reference in auction theory for decades to come.” —Roger Myerson, W.C.Norby Professor of Economics, University of Chicago “Market design is one of the most exciting developments in contemporary economics and game theory, and who can resist a master class from one of the giants of the field?” —Alvin Roth, George Gund Professor of Economics and Business, Harvard University “Paul Milgrom has had an enormous influence on the most important recent application of auction theory for the same reason you will want to read this book – clarity of thought and expression.” —Evan Kwerel, Federal Communications Commission, from the Foreword For Robert Wilson Foreword to Putting Auction Theory to Work Paul Milgrom has had an enormous influence on the most important recent application of auction theory for the same reason you will want to read this book – clarity of thought and expression. In August 1993, President Clinton signed legislation granting the Federal Communications Commission the authority to auction spectrum licenses and requiring it to begin the first auction within a year. With no prior auction experience and a tight deadline, the normal bureaucratic behavior would have been to adopt a “tried and true” auction design. But in 1993 there was no tried and true method appropriate for the circumstances – multiple licenses with potentially highly interdependent values. -
Coase Theorem” Asserts That in the Absence of Transaction Costs, Parties to an Externality Will Bargain to an Efficient Outcome
Abstract The \Coase theorem" asserts that in the absence of transaction costs, parties to an externality will bargain to an efficient outcome. It also claims that the resulting level of externality-generating is inde- pendent of initial assignment of rights. It is well-known that Coase's second claim is true if utility is quasi-linear so that the valuation of externalities does not depend on wealth. This paper finds a class of preferences for which Coase's second claim is true when there are wealth effects. It presents a necessary and sufficient condition for Coase's second claim and discusses applications of this result. 1 When Was Coase Right? Ted Bergstrom∗ Economics Department, University of California Santa Barbara [email protected] June 21, 2017 ∗This paper is dedicated to the memory of Richard Cornes and Leo Hurwicz, with whom it was my privilege to share thoughts and puzzlements about this topic. I am grateful to Di Wang of UCSB for useful discussions and for steering me to the Chipman-Tian paper, and also to Guoqiang Tian for helpful discussions. 1 Ronald Coase [7] argued that the amount of damage that one party causes to another typically depends on the actions of both parties. Coase maintained that, regardless of the way that the law assigns liability, if the perpetrator and recipient are able to bargain freely, they are likely to reach an efficient outcome. Coase's paper consists of a series of examples and insightful discussions. He made no claims of a formal theorem based on explicit assumptions. The term \Coase Theorem" seems to originate with George Stigler, who explained Coase's ideas in his textbook The Theory of Price [13], pp 110-114. -
Kenneth J. Arrow [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B
Kenneth J. Arrow [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B. Klein Econ Journal Watch 10(3), September 2013: 268-281 Abstract Kenneth J. Arrow is among the 71 individuals who were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2012. This ideological profile is part of the project called “The Ideological Migration of the Economics Laureates,” which fills the September 2013 issue of Econ Journal Watch. Keywords Classical liberalism, economists, Nobel Prize in economics, ideology, ideological migration, intellectual biography. JEL classification A11, A13, B2, B3 Link to this document http://econjwatch.org/file_download/715/ArrowIPEL.pdf ECON JOURNAL WATCH Kenneth J. Arrow by Daniel B. Klein Ross Starr begins his article on Kenneth Arrow (1921–) in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics by saying that he “is a legendary figure, with an enormous range of contributions to 20th-century economics…. His impact is suggested by the number of major ideas that bear his name: Arrow’s Theorem, the Arrow- Debreu model, the Arrow-Pratt index of risk aversion, and Arrow securities” (Starr 2008). Besides the four areas alluded to in the quotation from Starr, Arrow has been a leader in the economics of information. In 1972, at the age of 51 (still the youngest ever), Arrow shared the Nobel Prize in economics with John Hicks for their contributions to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory. But if the Nobel economics prize were given for specific accomplishments, and an individual could win repeatedly, Arrow would surely have several. It has been shown that Arrow is the economics laureate who has been most cited within the Nobel award lectures of the economics laureates (Skarbek 2009). -
The Case of Nepal Page 20 Shikha Silwal
The Economics of Vol. 8, No. 2 (2013) Peace and Security Articles Journal William C. Bunting on conflict over fundamental rights © www.epsjournal.org.uk Boris Gershman on envy and conflict ISSN 1749-852X Shikha Silwal on the spatial-temporal spread of civil war in Nepal A publication of Smita Ramnarain on the role of women’s cooperatives in Nepalese Economists for Peace peacebuilding and Security (U.K.) Guro Lien on the political economy of security sector reform Editors Jurgen Brauer, Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA, USA J. Paul Dunne, University of Cape Town, South Africa The Economics of Peace and Security Journal © www.epsjournal.org.uk, ISSN 1749-852X A publication of Economists for Peace and Security (U.K.) Editors Aims and scope Jurgen Brauer Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA, USA This journal raises and debates all issues related to the political economy of personal, communal, national, J. Paul Dunne international, and global conflict, peace and security. The scope includes implications and ramifications of University of Cape Town, South Africa conventional and nonconventional conflict for all human and nonhuman life and for our common habitat. Web editor Special attention is paid to constructive proposals for conflict resolution and peacemaking. While open to Thea Harvey-Barratt Economists for Peace and Security, Annandale-upon- noneconomic approaches, most contributions emphasize economic analysis of causes, consequences, and Hudson, NY, USA possible solutions to mitigate conflict. Book review editor The journal is aimed at specialist and nonspecialist readers, including policy analysts, policy and Elisabeth Sköns decisionmakers, national and international civil servants, members of the armed forces and of peacekeeping Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, services, the business community, members of nongovernmental organizations and religious institutions, and Stockholm, Sweden others. -
3 Nobel Laureates to Honor UCI's Duncan Luce
3 Nobel laureates to honor UCI’s Duncan Luce January 25th, 2008 by grobbins Three recent winners of the Nobel Prize in economics will visit UC Irvine today and Saturday to honor mathematician-psychologist Duncan Luce, who shook the economics world 50 years ago with a landmark book on game theory. Game theory is the mathematical study of conflict and interaction among people. Luce and his co-author, Howard Raiffa, laid out some of the most basic principles and insights about the field in their book, “Games and Decisions: Introductions and Critical Survey.” That book, and seminal equations Luce later wrote that helped explain and predict a wide range of human behavior, including decision-making involving risk, earned him the National Medal of Science, which he received from President Bush in 2005. (See photo.) UCI mathematican Don Saari put together a celebratory conference to honor both Luce and Raiffa, and he recruited some of the world’s best-known economic scientists. It’s one of the largest such gatherings since UCI hosted 17 Nobel laureates in October 1996. “Luce and Raiffa’s book has been tremendously influential and we wanted to honor them,” said Saari, a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Luce said Thursday night, “This is obviously very flattering, and it’s amazing that the book is sufficiently alive that people would want to honor it.” The visitors scheduled to attended the celebratory conference include: Thomas Schelling, who won the 2005 Nobel in economics for his research on game theory Roger Myerson and Eric Maskin, who shared the 2007 Nobel in economics for their work in design theory. -
The Death of Welfare Economics: History of a Controversy
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Igersheim, Herrade Working Paper The death of welfare economics: History of a controversy CHOPE Working Paper, No. 2017-03 Provided in Cooperation with: Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University Suggested Citation: Igersheim, Herrade (2017) : The death of welfare economics: History of a controversy, CHOPE Working Paper, No. 2017-03, Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE), Durham, NC This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/155466 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu The death of welfare economics: History of a controversy by Herrade Igersheim CHOPE Working Paper No. 2017-03 January 2017 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2901574 The death of welfare economics: history of a controversy Herrade Igersheim December 15, 2016 Abstract. -
Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin, and Roger Myerson
The Nobel Prize in Economics 2007: Background on Contributions to the Theory of Mechanism Design by Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin, and Roger Myerson. The theories of mechanism design and implementation provide a strategic analysis of the operation of various institutions for social decision making, with applications ranging from modeling election procedures to market design and the provision of public goods. The models use game theoretic tools to try to understand how the design of an institution relates to eventual outcomes when self-interested individuals, who may have private information, interact through the given institution. For example, the type of question addressed by the theory is: ``How do the specific rules of an auction relate to outcomes in terms of which agents win objects and at what prices, as a function of their private information about the value of those objects?’’ Some of the early roots of the theories of mechanism design and implementation can be traced to the Barone, Mises, von Hayek, Lange and Lerner debates over the feasibility of a centralized socialist economy. These theories also have roots in the question of how to collect decentralized information and allocate resources which motivated early Walrasian tatonnement processes, and the later Tjalling Koopmans' (1951) formalization of adjustment processes as well as Arrow-Hurwicz gradient process. The more modern growth of these theories, both in scope and application, came from the explicit incorporation of incentive issues. Early mention of incentive issues, and what appears to be the first coining of the term ``incentive compatibility,'' are due to Hurwicz (1960). The fuller treatment of incentives then came into its own in the classic paper of Hurwicz (1972). -
Is Equilibrium Enough and Was Stigler Wrong
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Herfeld, Catherine Working Paper Between mathematical formalism, normative choice rules, and the behavioral sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s CHOPE Working Paper, No. 2017-14 Provided in Cooperation with: Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University Suggested Citation: Herfeld, Catherine (2017) : Between mathematical formalism, normative choice rules, and the behavioral sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s, CHOPE Working Paper, No. 2017-14, Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE), Durham, NC This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/172306 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. -
Letter in Le Monde
Letter in Le Monde Some of us ‐ laureates of the Nobel Prize in economics ‐ have been cited by French presidential candidates, most notably by Marine le Pen and her staff, in support of their presidential program with regards to Europe. This letter’s signatories hold a variety of views on complex issues such as monetary unions and stimulus spending. But they converge on condemning such manipulation of economic thinking in the French presidential campaign. 1) The European construction is central not only to peace on the continent, but also to the member states’ economic progress and political power in the global environment. 2) The developments proposed in the Europhobe platforms not only would destabilize France, but also would undermine cooperation among European countries, which plays a key role in ensuring economic and political stability in Europe. 3) Isolationism, protectionism, and beggar‐thy‐neighbor policies are dangerous ways of trying to restore growth. They call for retaliatory measures and trade wars. In the end, they will be bad both for France and for its trading partners. 4) When they are well integrated into the labor force, migrants can constitute an economic opportunity for the host country. Around the world, some of the countries that have been most successful economically have been built with migrants. 5) There is a huge difference between choosing not to join the euro in the first place and leaving it once in. 6) There needs to be a renewed commitment to social justice, maintaining and extending equality and social protection, consistent with France’s longstanding values of liberty, equality, and fraternity. -
Putting Innovation Incentives Back in the Patent-Antitrust Interface, 11 Nw
Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property Volume 11 | Issue 5 Article 5 2013 Putting Innovation Incentives Back in the Patent- Antitrust Interface Thomas Cheng University of Hong Kong Recommended Citation Thomas Cheng, Putting Innovation Incentives Back in the Patent-Antitrust Interface, 11 Nw. J. Tech. & Intell. Prop. 385 (2013). https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/njtip/vol11/iss5/5 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern Pritzker School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property by an authorized editor of Northwestern Pritzker School of Law Scholarly Commons. NORTHWESTERN J O U R N A L OF TECHNOLOGY AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY Putting Innovation Incentives Back in the Patent-Antitrust Interface Thomas Cheng April 2013 VOL. 11, NO. 5 © 2013 by Northwestern University School of Law Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property Copyright 2013 by Northwestern University School of Law Volume 11, Number 5 (April 2013) Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property Putting Innovation Incentives Back in the Patent-Antitrust Interface By Thomas Cheng* This Article proposes a new approach, the constrained maximization approach, to the patent-antitrust interface. It advocates a return to the utilitarian premise of the patent system, which posits that innovation incentives are preserved so long as the costs of innovation are recovered. While this premise is widely accepted, it is seldom applied by the courts in patent-antitrust cases. The result is that courts and commentators have been overly deferential to dynamic efficiency arguments in defense of patent exploitation practices, and have failed to scrutinize the extent to which patentee reward is genuinely essential to generating innovation incentives.