MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-6 June Latam Elections Brief by Tom Lake and Jack Lewis

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-6 June LatAm Elections Brief by Tom Lake and Jack Lewis

Peru – Polls Show Presidential Race Too Close To Call Chart 1. Peruvian Election Opinion Polling (Undecided Voters Included), %

0 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr 05-May 10-May 15-May 20-May 25-May 30-May

Castillo - PL Fujimori - FP Undecided

Source: CPI, IEP, Datum, CIT, Ipsos Peru, IDICE, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll.

• The contest for the Peruvian presidency between far-left Free Peru (PL) candidate Pedro Castillo and right-wing populist Popular Force (FP) candidate Keiko Fujimori remains too close to call just days before the 6 June second-round run-off vote. • Castillo has held a narrow but consistent lead in polls both including and excluding undecided voters. Of the 9 election simulations carried out since mid-May where undecided voters are excluded Castillo has led in 8. His widest lead came in at 6.4% with the average standing at just 2.3%. • The contest has proved extremely divisive, and there is little prospect of an improvement in the tone of Peruvian politics in the aftermath of the vote. o Fujimori has already unsuccessfully run for the presidency, in the 2017 contest. She remains an extremely divisive politician as part of the Fujimori political dynasty. Her father, Alberto Fujimori, led an authoritarian administration during the 1990s that – while effective in combatting the Marxist Shining Path guerrilla group – resulted in the disappearance of scores of individuals deemed to be enemies of the government. o Castillo, on the other end of the political spectrum, is viewed with trepidation by some as an almost outright communist candidate, who could bring Venezuela-style economic policies to Peru. Castillo has proposed additional royalties on copper sales and a renegotiation of previous favourable tax deals

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for miners that could set a precedent across the region at a time when populist left wing politicians and parties are in the ascendancy (notably in Chile and Brazil). Chart 2. Peruvian Election Opinion Polling (Undecided Voters Excluded), %

46 12-May 14-May 16-May 18-May 20-May 22-May 24-May 26-May 28-May

Castillo - PL Fujimori - FP

Source: CPI, IEP, Datum, CIT, Ipsos Peru, IDICE, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll.

Mexico – AMLO Seeks Parliamentary Supermajority In Midterms • Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) will be looking to secure a supermajority of 334 seats in the mid-term elections to the lower chamber of the Mexican Congress, the 500-member Chamber of Deputies on 6 June. • More than 2,100 mayoral and city councillors, 30 state legislator seats and 15 governor’s mansions will also be up for grabs. • Opinion polling ahead of the vote shows a varied picture: o Parametria, May 22-28, 1,000 respondents: AMLO’s leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) set to win 239 seats, down from 253 presently. Alongside the Ecological Green Party and the Labor Party, the Juntos Hacemos Historia (Together we make history) would win 315 seats. o El Financiero, May 27-30, 2,000 respondents: MORENA (far-left): 39%, National Action Party (PAN, centre-right): 21%, Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI, centre-left): 20%, Citizens’ Movement (MC, progressive, centre- left): 5%, Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD, left-wing): 3%, Labor Party (PT, socialist): 3%, Solidary Encounter Party (PES, social conservative): 2%. o GEA-ISA, May 15-18, 1,500 respondents: MORENA: 209 seats, PVEM and PT gain 50 between them, giving Juntos Hacemos Historia 259 in total, PRI: 93, PAN: 77, PRD: 34.

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Chart 3. Mexico Chamber of Deputies at Dissolution, Seats

Source: Chamber of Deputies, MNI

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