DOCSLIB.ORG

Poster-Oppel-Et-Al.Pdf

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Poster-Oppel-Et-Al.Pdf Oppel, S. et al. 2014. BOU Proceedings – Avian Demography in a Changing World http://www.bou.org.uk/bouproc-net/avian-demography/poster-oppel-et-al.pdf Proceedings of the BOU’s 2013 Annual Conference From populations to policy impact: avian demography in a changing world View other papers from these proceedings at www.BOUPROC.net. POSTER Assessing population viability of a tropical forest songbird using an integrated population model STEFFEN OPPEL1*, GEOFF HILTON1, NORMAN RATCLIFFE3, RICHARD ALLCORN3, CALVIN FENTON3, JAMES DALEY3, JULIET VICKERY1 & DAVID GIBBONS1 1 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG 19 1QX, UK 2 British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK 3 Montserrat Department of the Environment, PO Box 272, Brades, Montserrat, West Indies * Email: [email protected] The viability of bird populations can be influenced by climatic conditions and by the occurrence of rare events. For many animal populations several demographic processes can respond to environmental perturbations, and understanding the population-level effects of environmental variation requires information on several important demographic variables, such as adult and juvenile survival probabilities, and annual fecundity. For rare species it can often be challenging to obtain sufficient data to estimate all the demographic parameters required for assessing the viability of a population. Integrated population models facilitate the integration of census data and all existing demographic information from a species to estimate demographic parameters for which no empirical data exist (Besbeas et al. 2004, 2005, Schaub et al. 2007, 2010). Because integrated population models incorporate uncertainty around all demographic parameters, they are an ideal tool for population viability analyses (Kéry & Schaub 2012). We used an integrated population model to assess the past and future population trend of a tropical forest passerine, the Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi. Montserrat Orioles are endemic to the Caribbean island of Montserrat, where an ongoing volcanic eruption has recently destroyed much of the native forest habitat. The Montserrat Oriole is currently considered as ‘Critically Endangered’, and suffers from ongoing volcanic activity and introduced predators affecting nest survival (Hilton et al. 2003, Allcorn et al. 2012, Oppel et al. 2013). We used population monitoring data (2000– 2012), productivity data (2001–2005) and mark–recapture data of juvenile and adult birds (2000–2005) in an integrated population model to estimate unobservable demographic parameters such as true juvenile survival and immigration rate. We considered volcanic ash-fall effects on annual survival probabilities, and effects of pre-breeding season rainfall on annual fecundity to explain annual fluctuations in Montserrat Oriole abundance. We projected the population trend 8 years into the future to assess the immediate extinction probability of Montserrat Orioles under current rainfall and volcanic activity. Montserrat Orioles experienced lower survival in years with volcanic ash-fall, and this effect caused periodic population declines that were compensated for by higher seasonal fecundity in years with high pre-breeding season rainfall. The integrated population model estimated a mean population growth rate © 2014 BOU & the Author(s) 1 Oppel, S. et al. 2014. BOU Proceedings – Avian Demography in a Changing World http://www.bou.org.uk/bouproc-net/avian-demography/poster-oppel-et-al.pdf Proceedings of the BOU’s 2013 Annual Conference From populations to policy impact: avian demography in a changing world View other papers from these proceedings at www.BOUPROC.net. of 0.983 (95% credible interval 0.958–1.007) between 2000 and 2012, and was able to trace the observed population fluctuations during that period. True annual juvenile survival probability in non- volcano years (0.517; 0.350–0.735) was 66% of adult survival (0.752; 0.668–0.830). juvenile dispersal from the study area, which heavily influenced apparent juvenile survival probabilities estimated from mark–resighting data, was compensated for by an immigration component in our model, which indicated a local immigration rate of 16.1% (5.9– 26.9%) of the population per year. Due to the inclusion of both demographic and environmental uncertainty in the model, the estimated population growth rate in the immediate future was highly imprecise (95% credible interval 0.844– 1.132). Although the Montserrat Oriole is vulnerable to ongoing volcanic activity, the population can compensate for periodic population setbacks under current climatic conditions, and these environmental uncertainties need to be considered in management options formulated for this species. Our model provides reassurance that the Montserrat Oriole is currently not threatened with immediate extinction in the near future, but that annually varying environmental conditions can explain considerable annual fluctuations in the species’ abundance. Based on the very low probability of extinction in the near future, emergency conservation interventions for the Montserrat Oriole are probably unnecessary, but the protection of all remaining forest habitat will be critical to maintain a viable Montserrat Oriole population. REFERENCES Allcorn, R. I., Hilton, G. M., FEnton, C., Atkinson, P. W., Bowden, C. G. R., Gray, G. A. L., HulmE, M., Madden, J., MacklEy, E. K. & OppEl, S. 2012. Demography and breeding ecology of the critically endangered Montserrat Oriole. Condor 114: 227–235. BesbEas, P., FrEEman, S. & Morgan, B. 2005. The potential of integrated population modelling. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics 47: 35–48. BesbEas, P., FrEEman, S., Morgan, B. & CatchpolE, E. 2004. Integrating mark–recapture–recovery and census data to estimate animal abundance and demographic parameters. Biometrics 58: 540–547. Hilton, G., Atkinson, P., Gray, G., ArEndt, W. & Gibbons, D. 2003. Rapid decline of the volcanically threatened Montserrat oriole. Biological Conservation 111: 79–89. Kéry, M. & Schaub, M. (2012) Bayesian population analysis using WinBUGS. Oxford, UK: Academic Press. OppEl, S., Hilton, G. M., Allcorn, R., FEnton, C., MatthEws, A. J. & Gibbons, D. 2013. The effects of rainfall on different components of seasonal fecundity in a tropical forest passerine. Ibis 155: 464–475. Schaub, M., Aebischer, A., Gimenez, O., Berger, S. & Arlettaz, R. 2010. Massive immigration balances high anthropogenic mortality in a stable eagle owl population: lessons for conservation. Biological Conservation 143: 1911–1918. Schaub, M., Gimenez, O., Sierro, A. & Arlettaz, R. 2007. Use of integrated modeling to enhance estimates of population dynamics obtained from limited data. Conservation Biology 21: 945–955. © 2014 BOU & the Author(s) 2 .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Vocalization Behavior of the Endangered Bahama Oriole (Icterus Northropi): Ontogenetic, Sexual, Temporal, Duetting Pair, and Geographic Variation Valerie A
    Loma Linda University TheScholarsRepository@LLU: Digital Archive of Research, Scholarship & Creative Works Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects 3-1-2011 Vocalization Behavior of the Endangered Bahama Oriole (Icterus northropi): Ontogenetic, Sexual, Temporal, Duetting Pair, and Geographic Variation Valerie A. Lee Loma Linda University Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarsrepository.llu.edu/etd Part of the Biology Commons Recommended Citation Lee, Valerie A., "Vocalization Behavior of the Endangered Bahama Oriole (Icterus northropi): Ontogenetic, Sexual, Temporal, Duetting Pair, and Geographic Variation" (2011). Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects. 37. http://scholarsrepository.llu.edu/etd/37 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by TheScholarsRepository@LLU: Digital Archive of Research, Scholarship & Creative Works. It has been accepted for inclusion in Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects by an authorized administrator of TheScholarsRepository@LLU: Digital Archive of Research, Scholarship & Creative Works. For more information, please contact [email protected]. LOMA LINDA UNIVERSITY School of Science and Technology in conjunction with the Faculty of Graduate Studies ____________________ Vocalization Behavior of the Endangered Bahama Oriole (Icterus northropi): Ontogenetic, Sexual, Temporal, Duetting Pair, and Geographic Variation by Valerie A. Lee ____________________ A Thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Biology ____________________ March 2011 © 2011 Valerie A. Lee All Rights Reserved Each person whose signature appears below certifies that this thesis in his/her opinion is adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree Master of Science. , Chairperson William K. Hayes, Professor of Biology Stephen G.
    [Show full text]
  • A Comprehensive Species-Level Molecular Phylogeny of the New World
    YMPEV 4758 No. of Pages 19, Model 5G 2 December 2013 Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution xxx (2013) xxx–xxx 1 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ympev 5 6 3 A comprehensive species-level molecular phylogeny of the New World 4 blackbirds (Icteridae) a,⇑ a a b c d 7 Q1 Alexis F.L.A. Powell , F. Keith Barker , Scott M. Lanyon , Kevin J. Burns , John Klicka , Irby J. Lovette 8 a Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, and Bell Museum of Natural History, University of Minnesota, 100 Ecology Building, 1987 Upper Buford Circle, St. Paul, MN 9 55108, USA 10 b Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA 11 c Barrick Museum of Natural History, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA 12 d Fuller Evolutionary Biology Program, Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, NY 14950, USA 1314 15 article info abstract 3117 18 Article history: The New World blackbirds (Icteridae) are among the best known songbirds, serving as a model clade in 32 19 Received 5 June 2013 comparative studies of morphological, ecological, and behavioral trait evolution. Despite wide interest in 33 20 Revised 11 November 2013 the group, as yet no analysis of blackbird relationships has achieved comprehensive species-level sam- 34 21 Accepted 18 November 2013 pling or found robust support for most intergeneric relationships. Using mitochondrial gene sequences 35 22 Available online xxxx from all 108 currently recognized species and six additional distinct lineages, together with strategic 36 sampling of four nuclear loci and whole mitochondrial genomes, we were able to resolve most relation- 37 23 Keywords: ships with high confidence.
    [Show full text]
  • Population Status and Trend of the Critically Endangered Montserrat Oriole
    Bird Conservation International (2014) 24:252–261. © BirdLife International, 2013 doi:10.1017/S0959270913000373 Population status and trend of the Critically Endangered Montserrat Oriole STEFFEN OPPEL , ANDREW CASSINI , CALVIN FENTON , JAMES DALEY and GERARD GRAY Summary Many island endemics are of great conservation concern due to small range and population sizes. The Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi is a forest passerine endemic to the Caribbean island of Montserrat, where recent volcanic activity has destroyed a large proportion of suitable forest habitat. From 1997 to 2000 the Montserrat Oriole population declined dramatically even in the remaining forest habitat, leading to its classification as ‘Critically Endangered’. We present trend estimates of the Montserrat Oriole population from 2000 to 2013, and estimate the world population size in 2012 based on repeat point counts and beta-binomial mixture models. Montserrat Orioles recovered between 2003 and 2005, and we found no evidence for a continuing population decline. However, there was large uncertainty around trend estimates, and the power to detect a shallow negative trend was very low. Based on the comparison of count data at 42 points, the Montserrat Oriole population in 2013 was less than half as large as in 1998. To improve future trend estimates a new monitoring design was introduced in 2011, and applied to all subpopulations of the species in 2012. The world population in 2012 was estimated to hold between 307 (95% credible interval 212–503) and 690 birds (476–1131) birds in the two forest fragments on Montserrat, depending on whether the sampling area around each point count was assumed to encompass 100 m or 150 m.
    [Show full text]
  • Greater Antilles
    Greater Antilles Jamaica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico (and Cayman Islands) Todies and Tyrants A Greentours Tour Report th th 27 November to 18 December 2014 Led by Paul Cardy Trip report written by Paul Cardy Introduction This ambitious tour of all the main Greater Antillean islands gives the chance to see a wealth of single island and regional endemic birds, butterflies and reptiles. Some 110 endemic birds were recorded, including all five of the world’s todys, endemic to the region. Our trip took us through five remarkably contrasting countries and cultures. Beautiful scenery, from the misty Blue Mountains of Jamaica, to the swamps of Cuba’s Zapata peninsula, Dominican Republic’s forested mountains, and the Guanica Dry Forest in Puerto Rico characterised the journey. A remarkably varied tour, illustrated by the Cuban example of watching Blue-headed Quail-Doves on forest trails in Zapata, and also experiencing the vibrancy of fascinating Old Havana. A feature was the incredible views we had of many rare endemic birds, such as Chestnut-bellied Cuckoo and both endemic parrots on Jamaica; Bee Hummingbird, Fernadina’s Flicker, and Zapata Wren on Cuba; Hispaniolan Woodpecker and Black-crowned Palm-Tanager in Dominican Republic; and Elfin Woods Warbler on Puerto Rico. There were some very special butterflies too such as Grand Cayman Swallowtail, Jamaican Monarch, two species of Anetia, Haitian Snout, Haitian Admiral, Cuban Emperor, Dusky Emperor, Cuban Lucinia, Cuban Dagger Tail, seven species of Calisto, and Haitian Pygmy Skipper. One area in Hispaniola, discovered on the previous visit, proved especially good for butterflies.
    [Show full text]
  • List of Annexes to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Partnership Agreement
    List of Annexes to The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Partnership Agreement Annex 1: Composition and Terms of Reference of the Red List Committee and its Working Groups (amended by RLC) Annex 2: The IUCN Red List Strategic Plan: 2017-2020 (amended by RLC) Annex 3: Rules of Procedure for IUCN Red List assessments (amended by RLC, and endorsed by SSC Steering Committee) Annex 4: IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, version 3.1 (amended by IUCN Council) Annex 5: Guidelines for Using The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria (amended by SPSC) Annex 6: Composition and Terms of Reference of the Red List Standards and Petitions Sub-Committee (amended by SSC Steering Committee) Annex 7: Documentation standards and consistency checks for IUCN Red List assessments and species accounts (amended by Global Species Programme, and endorsed by RLC) Annex 8: IUCN Red List Terms and Conditions of Use (amended by the RLC) Annex 9: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™ Logo Guidelines (amended by the GSP with RLC) Annex 10: Glossary to the IUCN Red List Partnership Agreement Annex 11: Guidelines for Appropriate Uses of Red List Data (amended by RLC) Annex 12: MoUs between IUCN and each Red List Partner (amended by IUCN and each respective Red List Partner) Annex 13: Technical and financial annual reporting template (amended by RLC) Annex 14: Guiding principles concerning timing of publication of IUCN Red List assessments on The IUCN Red List website, relative to scientific publications and press releases (amended by the RLC) * * * 16 Annex 1: Composition and Terms of Reference of the IUCN Red List Committee and its Working Groups The Red List Committee is the senior decision-making mechanism for The IUCN Red List of Threatened SpeciesTM.
    [Show full text]
  • United Nations Environment Programme
    UNITED NATIONS EP Distr. United Nations LIMITED Environment UNEP(DEPI)/CAR IG.25/INF.5 Programme 28 November 2006 ENGLISH only Fourth Meeting of the Contracting Parties (COP) to the Protocol Concerning Specially Protected Areas and Wildlife (SPAW) in the Wider Caribbean Region Montego Bay, Jamaica, 28 November 2006 A PROPOSAL FOR BIRD SPECIES TO BE ADDED TO ANNEXES II AND III OF THE SPAW PROTOCOL A proposal for bird species to be added to Annexes II and III of the SPAW Protocol Presented by Birdlife International in collaboration with the SPAW/RAC The IUCN Red List of threatened species is widely considered to be the most objective and authoritative system for classifying species in terms of the risk of extinction. Information on a taxon's population size, population trends and range size are applied to standard quantitative criteria to determine it’s IUCN Red List Category (Extinct, Extinct in the Wild, Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable, Near Threatened or Least Concern). Additional information on ecology and habitat preferences, threats and conservation action are also collated and assessed as part of Red List process. BirdLife International is the official Red List Authority for birds for the IUCN Red List, supplying the categories and associated detailed documentation for all the world's birds to the IUCN Red List each year. Through its Global Species Programme, BirdLife has collated (from a global network of experts and collaborating organisations and from publications and unpublished sources), assessed and published information on the world's threatened birds for over 25 years. Global checklists of all the world’s threatened birds were published as Birds to watch (1988) and Birds to watch 2 (1994).
    [Show full text]
  • Population Status, Habitat Dependence, and Reproductive Ecology of Bahama Orioles: a Critically Endangered Synanthropic Species Melissa R
    Journal of Field Ornithology J. Field Ornithol. 82(4):366–378, 2011 DOI: 10.1111/j.1557-9263.2011.00340.x Population status, habitat dependence, and reproductive ecology of Bahama Orioles: a critically endangered synanthropic species Melissa R. Price,1 Valerie A. Lee, and William K. Hayes Loma Linda University, Loma Linda, California 92354, USA Received 20 April 2011; accepted 29 July 2011 ABSTRACT. Recent elevation of critically endangered Bahama Orioles (Icterus northropi) to species status prompted us to evaluate their population status, habitat use, and breeding ecology. From surveys, we estimated that at least 141 to 254 individuals remain globally, with 90 to 162, 24 to 44, and 27 to 48 individuals remaining on North Andros Island, Mangrove Cay, and South Andros Island, The Bahamas, respectively. Orioles were observed nesting exclusively in anthropogenic habitat (residential and agricultural land), but home ranges also included nearby pine forest and coppice (dry broadleaf forest). Most nests (40 of 46, or 87%) were in nonnative coconut palm (Cocos nucifera), with native Sabal palmetto and Thrinax morrisii, and an introduced Brassaia actinophylla also used. Trees selected by orioles for nesting were significantly taller, less likely to have shrubs underneath, further from cover, and had more palm trees nearby than randomly selected palm trees. Three of eight nests with known contents were parasitized by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). Lethal yellowing disease recently devastated coconut palms and reduced the number of orioles on North Andros, but palms on Mangrove Cay and South Andros remain healthy. The juxtaposition of anthropogenic habitat to suitable native habitats may be more important than any single factor for Bahama Orioles, especially for breeding adults and fledged young.
    [Show full text]
  • Making a Move O N Monkserrat
    MAKING A MOVE ON MONKSERRAT By Paul Butler CarIMnProgramme Director Ram Center In wllaboration with Rose Wllock, MBE Frankfin Margetson @RARE Center 1991 Dear September 17, 1989, will long be etched in the memories of the people o ElI.e~~ rrat. That day Hurricane Hugo spent ten hours over their tiny, 36 square smh60"e" Magslhs island. Packing winds gusting 180 mph, Hugo left in its wake utter devas WlUld A. cam. Esq. Winlhmp, Stirnson. ten dead, virtually every building damaged, and the majority of Montserr Purim 8 Roberts temporarily homeless. h".ld A. mn What the hurricane could not destroy was the people's spirit. withindys tl;(e me Davis-DannCqanlzau~ ah" E. Eahn island reverberated to the sounds of hammers and men and women rebuilding Wodd Wdlls FuMi Com~aUmFowdatlon their shattered lives. Today, Montserrat is back on its feet. Electricity and telephones have been restored, roofs replaced and hotels open for business. What will take longer is the regeneration of its fragile environment. New sounds too are filline the air-people are talking and children are singing, Roger F. PaSqu1.. not of the great hurricane, but of their National Bird, the endemic oriole, Icteius EnYlmnmenfal Defense Fund R0b.n YSC. Rd( oben'. Admyof Nalvrsl SdBn-8. Philadeim While this species is endangered, numbering less than 1000, its importance lies not only in its rarity, but also in its symbolic value. Previously unknown to most Montserratians, today it is to be found on posters, billboards, bumper stickers and ahn~hrph, m.0. featured in songs, sermons and carnival calypsos-it is cherished by all.
    [Show full text]
  • Octobre 2012 Ethologie Du Moqueur Gorge Blanche
    Réserve Naturelle de la Caravelle Ethologie du Moqueur Gorge Blanche Ramphocinclus Brachyurus MA 11 DPNP 40 - LOT N°3 T. LESALES J-R. GROS-DESORMEAUX G.A. TAYALAY Octobre 2012 Parc Naturel Régional de la Martinique Réserve Naturelle de la Caravelle Ethologie du Moqueur Gorge Blanche Ramphocinclus Brachyurus CIHENCE sarl Siret: 514 331 115 00014 - NAF 7112B Siège : 112, avenue de Paris CS 60002 94306 Vincennes - France Site web: www.cihence.com Expertise et Solutions Environnementales Tél: 0172 501 546 - 06 34 63 26 36 Fax: 0826 678 971 Courriel : [email protected] - Direction : [email protected] 1 PREAMBULE Le présent rapport constitue l'un des livrables d'un travail de recherche qui s'est déroulé d'octobre 2011 à septembre 2012, suite à un appel d'offre du Parc Naturel Régional de la Martinique. L'ensemble du travail réalisé comprend donc : - une base de données comportementales disponible en format numérique. Elle rassemble l'ensemble des observations recueillies pendant l'étude. - une base de données SIG disponible en format numérique. Elle rassemble les observations géo référencées : localisation des nids, localisation des zones de grattages. - les extraits sonores illustrant la typologie des cris des Moqueurs gorge blanche, disponible en format numérique. - un documentaire vidéo disponible en format numérique. - une base de données photographiques rassemblant les clichés pris durant l'étude. L'équipe tient ici à exprimer sa reconnaissance au personnel du Parc Naturel Régional de la Martinique, pour la disponibilité et la réactivité dont il a fait preuve. Notre gratitude s'adresse également aux équipes de la Réserve Naturelle de la Caravelle, pour la sympathie et les savoirs partagés tout au long de cette étude.
    [Show full text]
  • SOS Wildlife of Montserrat 6
    UK Overseas Territories Conservation Forum Saving Our Special Nature of Montserrat Newsletter 6, March 2018 Foreword Welcome to the sixth issue of the newsletter about the project entitled Maximising long- term survival prospects of Montserrat’s endemic species and ecosystem-services. This is a good and reasonably concise title for technical use – but is a bit of a mouth-full for everyday use. So we thought that, for the latter, we might try something shorter – but meaning much the same thing, as well as trying to capture also the wider aspects. You see it above. It has not skipped our notice that it does lend itself to an abbreviation relevant to the urgency and importance of the matter: SOS Nature of Montserrat. We are very grateful for the many kind and encouraging comments from people welcoming the fi rst fi ve newsletters. We hope that you enjoy this one too. In it, we note the exciting news of a new species to science described from specimens in Montserrat, update on other progress by the Montana State University team in working up their data and fi nalising the Montserrat Virtual Museum of Natural History, talk some more on the challenges of dealing with human-introduced invasive species of plants and animals Male Montserrat oriole, Montserrat’s national which imperil native wildlife, describe further progress in satellite-aided mapping and bird on red heliconia, Montserrat’s national monitoring of ecosystems, and the incorporation of studies in schools education. We are plant. Photo: Dr Mike Pienkowski delighted too with the progress of local Adopt a Home for Wildlife projects.
    [Show full text]
  • Population Status and Trend of the Critically Endangered Montserrat Oriole
    Bird Conservation International (2014) 24:252–261. © BirdLife International, 2013 doi:10.1017/S0959270913000373 Population status and trend of the Critically Endangered Montserrat Oriole STEFFEN OPPEL , ANDREW CASSINI , CALVIN FENTON , JAMES DALEY and GERARD GRAY Summary Many island endemics are of great conservation concern due to small range and population sizes. The Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi is a forest passerine endemic to the Caribbean island of Montserrat, where recent volcanic activity has destroyed a large proportion of suitable forest habitat. From 1997 to 2000 the Montserrat Oriole population declined dramatically even in the remaining forest habitat, leading to its classification as ‘Critically Endangered’. We present trend estimates of the Montserrat Oriole population from 2000 to 2013, and estimate the world population size in 2012 based on repeat point counts and beta-binomial mixture models. Montserrat Orioles recovered between 2003 and 2005, and we found no evidence for a continuing population decline. However, there was large uncertainty around trend estimates, and the power to detect a shallow negative trend was very low. Based on the comparison of count data at 42 points, the Montserrat Oriole population in 2013 was less than half as large as in 1998. To improve future trend estimates a new monitoring design was introduced in 2011, and applied to all subpopulations of the species in 2012. The world population in 2012 was estimated to hold between 307 (95% credible interval 212–503) and 690 birds (476–1131) birds in the two forest fragments on Montserrat, depending on whether the sampling area around each point count was assumed to encompass 100 m or 150 m.
    [Show full text]
  • Statistics Department Montserrat
    i Foreword Over the past few decades, the importance of Environmental Statistics has been growing rapidly. A natural result of this has been the demand for and use of environmental indicators that have become especially urgent as humankind grapples with varying methods to protect and save the environment. Accurate, timely and internationally comparable Environmental Statistics are essential in guiding policy interventions to sustainably salvage our rapidly depleting forests and ensure the sustainability of our marine and other natural resources. The changing climate due largely to irresponsible human behavior is wreaking havoc especially on the poorer small island developing states. The need for current environmental data is accentuated in times of natural disasters such as hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes and other natural disasters. The importance attached to Environmental Statistics is reflected in the international guidelines which recommend the collection, compilation, dissemination, and analysis of this sector of statistics, with equal urgency as that given to statistics and indicators in the Social, Economic and Demographic sectors. Urgently growing concerns about the impact of climate change, which threatens the very existence of human life on this planet have lead our authorities to formulate and document at least one major goal that is directly related to the environment, as well as several indicators spread across the seventeen (17) Sustainable Development Goals to be achieved by all countries by 2030. Evidence of achievement will crucially depend on the availability of key Environmental Statistics and Indicators. This current issue of the Environmental Compendium for Montserrat is the first of its kind and represents the efforts of the Statistics Department of Montserrat (SDM), working in close collaboration with its various partners, to address the need for Environmental Statistics and indicators.
    [Show full text]