OVERVIEW of ADS-B COST BENEFIT STUDY Background
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The Global Voice of ATM OVERVIEW OF ADS-B COST BENEFIT STUDY The global voice of ATM Background At the 3rd SEA ADS-B WG Meeting in July 08, CANSO an d IATA were request e d to con duc t a Cost Benefit Analysis for the SEA ADS-B project undertaken by Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore over the South China Sea. The st u dy cond uct ed with th e support o f CANSO APAC members, FAA and CAAS was completed in 2009. The global voice of ATM 1 Objectives To determine the benefits & costs of ADS-B iilmplement ttifthjtation for the project As an example of good governance in developing a business case for the project To promote regional collaboration and harmonisation among ANSPs and users The global voice of ATM Project Scope The global voice of ATM 2 Project Scope The global voice of ATM Project Scope The global voice of ATM 3 Study Assumptions ADS-B data sharing across FIRs Provision of VHF communications to adjacent States as required Provision of radar-like separation in restricted airspace Analysis based on extrapolation of CAAS traffic data and IATA’s demand ppjrojections Estimated infrastructure cost The global voice of ATM Traffic Demand Forecast Given the recent economic downturn and the volatility of projections, we conducted a sensitivity aanalnalys sisis b basedased on the follo wing sc scenaenario ioss: Low: 3% growth Medium: 5% growth High: 7% growth Note: The medium and most probable growth rate for air traffic is set at 5% based on IATA’s Forecast AAGR (2007-2011) for APAC which is 5.9% for pax and 5.4% for freight. The global voice of ATM 4 Aircraft Equipage Information presented at SEA ADS-B WG/1 in 2007 showed that about 60% of aircraft in the area were transm itting ADS -BBd dat a a lthough hthi this d oes not tt tak e into account the certification or accuracy of the data. A review of flights operating in the area from Jul- Oct 2008 reinforced this point, where 61.9% were assessed to be ADS-B capable. 25% of the remaining were assessed as retrofit ready (during scheduled maintenance) The global voice of ATM Aircraft Equipage New aircraft delivered are all ADS-B capable Fleet retirements due to economic climate will enhance capabilities Retrofit timelines would be encouraged by an effective mandate With an effective mandate, more than 85% of aircraft would be ADS-B (()pOut) capable The global voice of ATM 5 Benefits - Optimum Flight Altitudes Examine fuel savings ANSP A ANSP B ANSP C DATA : DATA; DATA : for flights that currently do not Optimum (Requested) Flight Level (FL) receive optimum BENEFIT BENEFIT altitude Assumed FL Actual FL Assumed FL In FIR A In FIR B In FIR C Examine flights that are currently delayed Destination before receiving Departure Estimated Elapsed optimum altitude. Time The global voice of ATM Benefits - Capacity Increase Examine delays due to limited capacity vs. the demand 70 forecast. 60 50 in Region in Examine hourly demand vs . d 40 30 hourly capacity and run a 20 10 0 queuing model to estimate Deman Hourly 0 5 10 15 20 2007 delay difference between 2010 Local Hour 2015 2020 baseline capacity and new 2025 Baseline Capacity ADS-B enabled capacity New Capacity Monetize delay savings benefit in terms of reduced Aircraft Example of Hourly Demand Direct Operating Costs and Passenger Value of Time The global voice of ATM 6 Costs - Infrastructure ADS-B stations VHF radio & communications circuits ATM system upgrades where applicable Project management & training Recurrent costs e.g. maintenance and spares SupportingSuppo t g infrastructure ast uctu e if needed eeded The global voice of ATM Economic Analysis Business Case – Net Present Value (NPV) [> 0] – Benefit to Cost Ratio (B/C ratio) [> 1] – In terna l Ra te o f Re turn (IRR) [> Cos t o f Cap ita l] –Payback Year SE Asia - Most Likely Estimate $100 3% growth $80 5% growth $60 nt Value $M nt Value 7% growth e Example of outputs $40 $20 $0 ($20) Cumulative Pres Cumulative $2,000 M $ $1,500 ue $1,000 Val $500 esent Pr $0 ive 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 at ($500) Cum ul ($1,000) 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 The global voice of ATM 7 Results of Cost Benefit Study (For a 5% medium traffic growth scenario) Annual savings of nearly 3 million lbs of fuel burn Annual reduction of 10 million lbs of CO2 emissions Total Economic savings of over US $ 4m annually IRR of 22% The global voice of ATM Other Benefits Improved safety – enhanced tracking of aircraft, weather deviations etc Improved surveillance facilitates Search and Rescue efforts Environmental benefits – greater operational efficiency leading to lower carbon emissions Improved flight data collection for analysis and planning The global voice of ATM 8 Cost Benefit Study for South China Sea project Completed and published in May 2009. Available to download from www.canso.org/asiapacific Project milestones for initial phase of ADS-B implementation over the South China Sea A Installation of ADS-B ground stations Natunas and Matak - completed Singapore - completed Con Son - 2H 2011 B Installation of VHF stations and links i) Natunas and Matak - 2H2011 ii) Conson - 2H2012 C Signing of ADS-B data and VHF radio facility sharing agreement i) Between Indonesia and Singapore - 2H2010 completed ii) Between Vietnam and Singapore - 2H2011 D Signing of LOA between Ho Chi Minh and Singapore ACCs - 1H2011 E Issue AIC on aircraft equipage mandate - 2H 2010 completed F Conduct of ADS-B monitoring + safety assessment - 1H 2011 G Operational trial without priority - 2H 2011 H Priority for suitably-equipped aircraft and Phase II - 2H 2012 I Implementation of ADS-B operations - 2H2013 9 CANSO ADS-B SEMINAR FOR CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY OF THE PHILIPPINES 11 August 2010, MANILA Proposed ADS-B coverage for additional high density routes over the South China Sea Manila Quezon Pahlawan Con Son Brunei Natuna Matak Singapore Routes benefitting from the additional coverage Operational Trials on L642 and M771 Current ADS-B Project Coverage Proposed ADS-B Coverage 10 Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) Seminar for Department of Civil Aviation, Myanmar Civil Aviation Training Institute, Yangon 22 February 2011 Myanmar ADS-B Implementation Plan Radar ADS-B Lashio Airport Manday International Airport Kyaing Tone Airport 5 ADS-B Sittwe Airport stations proposed 3 SSR radar for En-route Yangon International Airport 1 PSR for Pathein Airport Terminal Coo co island Airport Myeik Airport 11 Potential ADS-B coverage for high density routes over Bay of Bengal Calcutta Bubaneshwar Sittwe Vish akh apat nam Mahanadi Basin Pathien Coco Island Bangkok Krishna-Godavari Chennai Basin Andaman Nicobar Basin Port Blair Trincomalee Car Nicobar Phuket Aceh High Density Routes over Bay of Bengal Potential ADS-B coverage from sites on land Potential ADS-B coverage from offshore sites Regional Collaboration The global voice of ATM 12 In 2009 intra-Asia Pacific travel eclipsed North America as the world’s largest aviation market. The global voice of ATM The Global Voice of ATM CANSO Headquarters Transpolis Schiphol Airport Polaris Avenue 85e 2132 JH Hoofddorp the Netherlands tel: +31 (0)23 568 5380 fax: +31 (0)23 568 5389 email: [email protected] The global voice of ATM 13.