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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Swan and Canning Rivers

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Swan and Canning Rivers Potential impacts of Climate Change on the Swan and Canning rivers Prepared for the Swan River Trust by the Technical Advisory Panel December 2007 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 11 1 CLIMATE CHANGE OBSERVATIONS & PROJECTIONS .............................................................13 1.1 Global Climate Change Observations ......................................................................................13 1.1.1 Global Air and Sea Temperatures .............................................................................................13 1.1.2 Potential Evaporation ...............................................................................................................14 1.1.3 Sea Level Rise .........................................................................................................................15 1.1.4 Weather Patterns and Rainfall ..................................................................................................16 1.2 Interaction between Human Activity and Climate Change .........................................................16 1.3 Global Emission Scenarios..........................................................................................................17 1.4 Global Climate Change Projections.............................................................................................19 1.4.1 Air and Ocean Temperatures ....................................................................................................20 1.4.2 Sea Level Rise .........................................................................................................................21 1.4.3 Weather Patterns and Rainfall ..................................................................................................22 1.5 Climate Change Observations for the Swan and Canning Rivers ...............................................23 1.5.1 Air and Estuary Temperatures ..................................................................................................23 1.5.2 Storm Surges............................................................................................................................23 1.5.3 Hydrodynamics and the salt wedge..........................................................................................25 1.5.4 Relative Sea Level Rise ...........................................................................................................26 1.5.5 Seasonal Total Rainfall ............................................................................................................27 1.5.6 Annual and Daily River Flows ...................................................................................................28 1.5.7 Extreme Rainfall and Flooding ................................................................................................28 1.6 Climate Change Projections for the Swan and Canning rivers ...................................................31 1.6.1 Scenarios..................................................................................................................................31 1.6.2 Broad Qualitative Expectations ................................................................................................31 1.6.3 Air and Estuary Temperatures ..................................................................................................33 1.6.4 Storm surges ............................................................................................................................36 1.6.5 Hydrodynamics and the salt wedge .........................................................................................36 1.6.6 Relative Sea Level Rise ...........................................................................................................37 1.6.7 Winter Rainfall ..........................................................................................................................37 1.6.8 Annual River Flow.....................................................................................................................38 1.6.9 Extreme Rainfall and Flooding above the Tidal Zone ..............................................................39 1.7 Summary .....................................................................................................................................41 2 POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FOR SWAN AND CANNING RIVERS ......................42 2.1 Impacts on Broader Catchment (Avon) .......................................................................................42 2.2 Impacts on Swan and Canning rRivers .......................................................................................43 2.2.1 Impacts on Ecology ..................................................................................................................43 2.2.2 Human Health and Social Impacts ...........................................................................................53 2.2.3 Impacts on Infrastructure ..........................................................................................................54 2.2.4 Economic Impacts ....................................................................................................................57 2.3 Summary ....................................................................................................................................58 3 ADAPTATION TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ...........................................................60 3.1 Strategies to inform adaptation to climate change impacts in the broader catchment (Avon) .....60 3.2 Strategies to inform adaptation to climate change impacts in Swan and Canning Rivers ..........63 3.2.1 Adapting to impacts on ecology ................................................................................................63 3.2.2 Adapting to Human Health and Social Impacts ........................................................................68 3.2.3 Adapting to Impacts on Infrastructure .......................................................................................70 3.2.4 Adapting to Economic Impacts .................................................................................................71 3.3 Summary .....................................................................................................................................73 4 Planning for Adaptation .................................................................................................................74 4.1 Planning Legislation ....................................................................................................................74 4.2 Adaptation responses to climate change impacts on existing development ...............................75 4.3 Response to planning of new areas ............................................................................................77 5 KEY FINDINGS ..............................................................................................................................78 6 References .....................................................................................................................................80 List of Tables TABLE 1 - Observed rates of sea level rise and estimated contributions from different sources. .....13 Table 2 - Recent global assessment of human infl uence on the trend, and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late twentieth-century trend.. ...................................15 Table 3 - Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and equivalent CO2 concentrations of other ghgs (ppm) and aerosols.. ....................................................................................................................................16 Table 4 - CO2 stabilisation equivalents of SRES scenarios. .............................................................19 Table 5 - Projected mean surface global warming for the key selected scenarios ............................20 Table 6 - Projected globally averaged surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the twenty-fi rst century ...........................................................................................................................22 Table 7 - Highest water levels recorded at Fremantle 1897 - 2006 (metres above AHD). ................24 Table 8 - Major processes infl uencing sea level variability at Fremantle ...........................................26 Table 9 – Major water quality trends in the Swan Canning river system from 1995-2004 ................30 Table 10 - Observed and projected (south western Australia/Swan River) climatic or climatically as- sociated trends from global human development .............................................................................32 Table 11 - Projected annual mean warming - south west (surface level) ..........................................34 Table 12 - Projected relative sea level rise for south west region......................................................37 Table 13 - Projected mean winter rainfall decrease - south west ......................................................38 Table 14 - Streamfl ow decrease from 1925 - 1975............................................................................39 Table 15 - Observed and projected (south western Australia/Swan Rriver) trends in rainfall extremes and fl oods ......................................................................................................................................40
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