The EUROFI Magazine BERLIN SEPTEMBER 2020
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Views The EUROFI Magazine BERLIN SEPTEMBER 2020 Olaf Scholz Federal Minister of Finance and Vice Chancellor, Germany Together for Europe’s recovery The Eurofi Financial Forum 2020 Berlin | 9, 10 & 11 September F. Hufeld I. Tinagli M. Centeno How to face multiple The Recovery Package The pandemic crisis: challenges at and the new priorities Sustainability, role of the same time for the European Union monetary policy and the need for long-term growth And more than 150 contributions from leading public and private sector representatives: R. Gualtieri - K. Knot - J. Kukies - B. Le Maire - V. Šapoka - H. Waiglein - O. Renaud-Basso - C. San Basilio - R. Holzmann - B. Vujčić - V. Vasiliauskas - P. Hernández de Cos - M. Müller - J. Wuermeling - E. Fernandez-Bollo - B. Balz - D. Beau - S. Goulard - K. Regling - Y. Mersch - JM. Campa - E. König - S. Maijoor - F. Hufeld - P. Heilbronn - W. Hoyer - G. Bernardino - V. Dombrovskis - J. Berrigan - M. Nava - M. Velentza - M. Merlin - U. Bassi - O. Karas - P. Tang - S. Yon-Courtin - S. Pietikäinen - M. Ferber - R. Ophèle - G. Figueiredo Dias - JP. Servais - K-P. Schackmann-Fallis - H. Schleweis - E.T. Müller - C. Sewing - S. Leithner - J. Lemierre - X. Musca - C. Staub - M. Ronner - A. Weber … VISIT OUR WEBSITE www.eurofi.net for our latest publications on the conditions for relaunching growth post-Covid and on-going trends and policy developments in the financial sector EUROFI POLICY NOTES PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR VIEWS The Eurofi Financial Forum BERLIN | SEPTEMBER 2020 This bi-annual Views Magazine comprises contributions from a wide range of public and private sector representatives on the challenges and conditions for relaunching growth post-Covid, on-going industry trends such as digitalisation and ESG and key on-going policy initiatives in the financial sector. Content EDITORIALS & OPENING INTERVIEWS I. POST-COVID PRIORITIES What way forward for the EU following the Covid crisis? ............................................................................................................. 20 Priorities for the financial sector in the post-Covid era ................................................................................................................ 24 Is the EU response to the Covid economic crisis fit for purpose ................................................................................................ 28 II. CHALLENGES AND CONDITIONS FOR RELAUNCHING GROWTH Is current monetary policy doing more harm than good and are there alternatives? .......................................................... 36 Conditions for relaunching growth in the EU ................................................................................................................................. 44 Should we be concerned about post-Covid financial stability? ................................................................................................. 50 Way forward to address unsustainable sovereign debt in the EU ............................................................................................... 56 Should financial sovereignty be a key objective for the EU? ....................................................................................................... 64 III. BANKING AND INSURANCE REGULATION How should the banking framework evolve in the context of the economic crisis? ............................................................ 72 Does the Covid crisis reinforce the case for Banking Union? ..................................................................................................... 80 What does the Covid crisis mean for insurance companies and their regulation? ............................................................... 88 IV. FUTURE STEPS OF THE CMU CMU: is the High Level Forum report the right way forward? ................................................................................................... 96 Can the EU manage without the City? ......................................................................................................................................... 106 How to maximize the role of investment funds in the post-Covid recovery? .................................................................... 114 How to develop retail investment in the EU? .............................................................................................................................. 120 What more needs to be done to strengthen equity funding .................................................................................................. 126 How to relaunch securitisation? ..................................................................................................................................................... 132 Improving EU securities market transparency and infrastructure ......................................................................................... 136 How to address CCP outstanding issues? ..................................................................................................................................... 142 V. NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND PAYMENTS How to support effective digitalisation of EU finance and ensure sufficient technological sovereignty? ................. 150 Is the EU policy approach on cloud and data up to the digital challenges? ....................................................................... 158 Will AI be a game changer in the financial sector and under what conditions ................................................................. 164 Key success factors for delivering an effective and viable retail payments area .............................................................. 166 Does the EU need to build its own payment system? ............................................................................................................... 171 VI. ESG AND SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT Have the prospects of global and EU ESG policies changed with the Covid crisis? ......................................................... 178 Will tackling climate risk still be a major priority post-Covid? ............................................................................................... 186 Sustainability disclosures ................................................................................................................................................................. 190 Challenging times for the EU and its financial industry The Eurofi Berlin event and the publication of this Magazine are taking place at a particularly challenging time, since the pandemic is not over in the world and in Europe. The way forward to address the COVID-19 economic crisis and the “Next Generation EU“ recovery plan proposed by the EU will provide major topics of discussion during the Eurofi Berlin event.The move towards fiscal cohesion and solidarity is real and reassuring. But money alone will not ensure recovery. Investment and national reforms are also essential components for a green and innovative Europe. One particular challenge at this point in time, beyond recovery, is to relaunch productive investment and sustainable growth in the EU. Real Gross Domestic Product growth and productivity gains in the euro area have failed to catch up with US, China and Japan over the past two decades and the pandemic crisis further increases investment needs. We have to invest in an innovative and carbon neutral Europe. However, lasting low interest rates develop preference for liquidity over productive investment. The main economic and financial threats at the EU level in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic are another challenge. So far, potential risks to global and European financial stability remain under control but we are not out of rough waters. At the top of the list of threats lie high levels of public and private debt in a number of Member States. Central banks played a crucial role in stabilizing the financial system. But monetary policy and money creation cannot do everything and cannot solve the problems arising from excessive debt. In addition, pushing too hard and too long on the monetary pedal generates financial vulnerabilities, leads to serious distortions and eventually creates the conditions for future crises. To solve the problems arising from excessive debt, governments must stand ready to take corrective action in order to ensure a path towards primary fiscal balances consistent with fiscal sustainability. Moreover, if Europe wants to provide citizens, businesses and society at large with the tools to turn current challenges into opportunities, the EU needs a vibrant single market for financial services. Throughout the crisis, the EU banking sector has proved to be part of the solution to the crisis but the economic fallout will be a further challenge for the sector and will put additional pressure onto a European financial system which was already facing headwinds (negative interest rates…) and structural challenges (digitalisation…). In such a context, full implementation of Banking Union, without any fragmentation, making the Capital Markets Union a reality, increasing the digitalisation of the EU financial sector and maintaining the diversity of the banking sector are key priorities for ensuring an effective funding of the economy and enhancing EU financial sovereignty. How to address these different challenges will be at the centre of the discussions of the Berlin event, as well as key on-going trends such as ESG and digitalisation. In preparation for this, the Eurofi secretariat has prepared