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Trends in Post-Cold War International Security Policy – the View of Three Leading Institutes

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Trends in Post-Cold War International Security Policy – the View of Three Leading Institutes Contents Abbreviations Preface 11 INTRODUCTION 13 PART I TRENDS IN POST-COLD WAR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY POLICY – THE VIEW OF THREE LEADING INSTITUTES International Security after the Cold War: Aspects of Continuity and Change By Mats Berdal The International Institute for Strategic Studies 21 Introduction 21 Context and Trends 26 An Expanding Security Agenda 38 Factors Affecting Policy-Making 51 The Role of Institutions 59 Old and New Dimensions of International Security By Curt Gasteyger The Graduate Institute of International Studies 69 Introduction 69 The Legacies of the Cold War 71 An Unruly “World After” 81 Inflated Institutions, Reduced Armies 89 Back to Geopolitics 94 Towards Cooperative Security 102 Lessons and Questions for Tomorrow’s International Security 105 Driving Forces of International Security By Gregory F. Treverton, Marten van Heuven, and Andrew E. Manning RAND 109 Introduction 109 Key Changes since the End of the Cold War 110 Lessons of the Past Decade 127 Driving Forces of Contemporary International Security 131 Current Problems and Issues 143 Scanning the Future for Near-Term Discontinuities 156 PART II FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN SECURITY POLICY – EIGHT CASE STUDIES Muddling Through? A Strategic Checklist for the United States in the Post-Cold War World By John Lewis Gaddis 171 Prospects for Europe and the Atlantic Alliance at Century’s End By William I. Hitchcock 191 Conflict Management and European Security: The Problem of Collective Solidarity By Fred Tanner 215 The European Union Entering the 21st Century By Pál Dunay 231 Ethnicity in International Conflicts: Revisiting an Elusive Issue By Victor-Yves Ghebali 257 East Central Europe: The Unbearable Tightness of Being By André Liebich 271 Security Issues for Russia in the New International Context By Yuri Nazarkin 285 New Security Challenge or Old? Russia’s Catch-22 By William C. Wohlforth 305 CONCLUDING ANALYSIS: FIVE TRENDS – AND MANY UNCERTAINTIES 319 Redefining “International Security” after the Cold War 321 Economic Globalization and International Security 323 The Changing Nature of Conflict 325 The Need for Leadership and an Ambiguous United States 327 No “Common House Europe:” Incomplete European Security Architecture 330 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 333 About the Authors 341 Abbreviations APC armored personnel carriers ARF ASEAN Regional Forum CAP Common Agricultural Program CARICOM Caribbean Community CFE Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy 4 C ISR command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance CEC cooperative engagement control ECB European Central Bank EAPC Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council ECOMOG Economic Community of West African States Cease- fire Monitoring Group ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EMU Economic and Monetary Union ESDI European Security and Defense Identity Eurofor European Rapid Operational Force FAWEU Forces Answerable to the WEU GCSP Geneva Centre for Security Policy GPS Global Positioning System IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies IMF International Monetary Fund IMSMA Information Management System for Mine Action ISN International Relations and Security Network ISS International Security Studies (Yale) IUHEI Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva) MAD Mutual Assured Destruction MAPE Multinational Advisory Police Element for Albania MNPF Multi-National Protection Force NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NUC NATO-Ukraine Commission OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PGP Pretty Good Privacy Phare Poland Hungary Aid for the Reconstruction of the Economy PIGS Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain PJC Permanent Joint Council PSO Peace Support Operations RMA Revolution in Military Affairs SFOR Stability Force SIAF Spanish-Italian Amphibious Force UNMAS United Nations Mine Action Service UNSC UN Security Council WEU Western European Union WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction Preface This book addresses the issue of international security after the end of the Cold War. Thirteen renowned experts of five research institutes analyze the key changes in the field of international security since 1989, investigate the main security problems today, and offer their views on trends that are likely to shape international security policy in the coming decades. The contributions were presented partly at the 3rd International Security Forum, held in Zurich 19-21 October 1998, partly at a preceding workshop jointly organized by International Secu- rity Studies (ISS) at Yale University and the Geneva Centre for Secu- rity Policy (GCSP). The book contains articles by Dr. Mats Berdal (International Institute for Strategic Studies, IISS), Dr. Pál Dunay (GCSP), Prof. John Lewis Gaddis (ISS), Prof. Curt Gasteyger (Graduate Institute of International Studies, IUHEI), Prof. Victor-Yves Ghebali (IUHEI), Prof. William I. Hitchcock (ISS), Prof. André Liebich (IUHEI), Ambassador Yuri Nazarkin (GCSP), Dr. Fred Tanner (GCSP), Dr. Gregory F. Trever- ton, Dr. Marten van Heuven and Andrew E. Manning (RAND), and Dr. William C. Wohlforth (ISS). The 3rd International Security Forum brought together more than 200 researchers, civil servants, military officers, and media representatives to discuss various aspects related to the challenge of “Networking the Security Community in the Information Age.” The Forum was the lat- est in a series of similar events earlier organized in Zurich (1994) and Geneva (1996), then named “Institutes and the Security Dialogue.” The next International Security Forum will be organized by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and will take place in the year 2000. The 3rd International Security Forum was at the same time the 1st Conference of the Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes. The purpose of this impor- tant joint conference was to promote defense and security policy exper- tise within the government and private sector, contribute to the devel- 11 opment of professional military education, and encourage collaborative approaches to defense education. Participating at the conference were governmental defense academic institutions and secu- rity studies institutes as well as non-governmental institutes, universi- ties and other similar bodies, particularly those with a focus on national security and foreign and defense policy. The event was co-organized and co-sponsored by the Center for Secu- rity Studies and Conflict Research at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, the Swiss Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sports, the George C. Marshall Center for European Security Studies, and the NATO Defense College in Rome. It was conducted in cooperation with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. As co-organizers of the International Security Forum, the editors would like to thank all the participants of this successful conference. They express their particular gratitude to the authors of this volume for their important contributions. Furthermore, they recognize the generous financial and other aid by their co-sponsors and co-organizers. In this context, the editors would like to acknowledge especially the support of Swiss Federal Councilor Adolf Ogi and of Dr. Theodor Winkler of the Department of Defense, Civil Protection and Sports. With regard to the organization of this book, Daniel Möckli merits special mention for his editorial assistance. Further thanks go to Marco Zanoli, Derek Müller and Kilian Borter who all contributed to the suc- cessful outcome of this publication. The editors would also like to thank Mrs. Iona D’Souza for her help with the manuscript. The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors. 12 Introduction What better occasion is there to reflect on the notion of international security than the turn of the century? It is a suitable moment to pause and look back as well as ahead. This book both analyzes the develop- ment of international security policy since the demise of the Cold War in 1989 and discerns trends that are likely to dominate the security agenda in the coming decades. While much has been written recently about post-Cold War interna- tional security, the unique advantage of this compilation of articles is its comparative approach. All the studies ponder upon and respond to the same set of questions. These are: · What are the key changes that have taken place in the debate on international security policy since the end of the Cold War? What lessons can be drawn from that experience? What were the key fac- tors driving change? · Consequently, what are the main problems and issues to be addressed today? · Based on this analysis, what are the likely currents in this area to be reckoned with at the threshold of the 21st century? Considering the range of distinguished experts who present their views in this book, the method of comparison is a particularly fruitful way of figuring out trends that will shape international security in the decades ahead. But more than simply pointing to similarities among the respec- tive analyses, the comparative approach will also provoke debate con- cerning the various discrepancies of interpretation that it will reveal. The following articles have thus the double aim of deepening our un- derstanding of international security and at the same time drawing our attention to the many uncertainties
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