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MK Garnaut Submission1a

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MK Garnaut Submission1a AUSTRALIAN SOILS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS The Carbon Coalition Against Global Warming FINAL SUBMISSION to the Australian Government Garnaut Climate Change Review 21 January, 2008 1 AUSTRALIAN SOILS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS Introduction 3. Key Factor #1: The Potential of Australian Soils 4. Key Factor #2: Myths About Australian Soil C 6. Key Factor #3: The Unique Role of Soils. 11. Key Factor #4: The Bridge To The Future. 14. Key Factor #5: Urgency 15. Key Factor #6: Soil MMV and the Uncertainty Principle 18. Key Factor #7: The Clash of Paradigms. 24. Key Factor #8: Soil Carbon Market Operating 27. Key Factor #9: Gaining Farmer Engagement 36. Key Factor #10: Practical Considerations 39. Key Factor #11 Soil Carbon and Climate Change 49. Key Factor #12: Support for the Coalition’s Submission 55. Conclusion 61. Appendix 1 Limitations of NCAS data 1 63. Appendix 1 Limitations of NCAS data 2 64. Appendix 2: Carbon Farming 65. Appendix 3: Uncertainty and the GHG Protocol 70. Appendix 4: Voluntary Carbon Standard 73. Appendix 5: Scientific method and alternative agriculture 75. Appendix 6: Attempts to “Guide” the Enquiry’s Findings 77. Appendix 7: About the Carbon Coalition 79. 2 Introduction The Garnaut Climate Change Review has a greater responsibility for the well-being of generations to come than any other enquiry in Australia’s history. Its findings and recommendations will have an impact that will affect the security of all Australians. Soil Carbon is a divisive issue. It divides scientists and policy makers and their advisors. It divides landholders and industry association leaders. It has led to wild and unsupported statements from both sides. It has all the hallmarks of a clash between competing paradigms, as described by Thomas Kuhn in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. The conflict is based on fundamental scientific principles of replication (repeatability of experiments) and reductionism (isolating a single variable for study) and the study of complex ecological systems, including the failure of experimental scientific method to reproduce the findings of farmers on their properties. These tensions have not kept a group of Australia’s most prominent sol scientists from joining with farmers and graziers in meetings and conferences to build bridges and share perspectives. The Carbon Coalition thanks these scientists and the agronomists and agency personnel who have reached out to producers. World authority on soil carbon, Dr Rattan Lal, who described our Carbon Farming Conference in November 2007 as “an historic event of international significance”, has sounded the call to arms for his colleagues: “While the market is just developing, there is vast scope for growing soil C as a cash crop… Researchers must put their act together before the train leaves the station.” All objections and anxiety about difficulties with soil C should be seen in context of our objectives: preventing the disintegration of the infrastructure of our civilization through the impact of extreme weather events and armed conflict between nations and peoples displaced in their millions, desperate and seeking shelter, land and water. These are the warnings of the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Defence Force, and the Pentagon. If the amount of time and energy that has been expended in finding objections to soil C trading had instead been channeled into finding solutions to the difficulties, the world would already be safer place for our children and grandchildren. 3 AUSTRALIAN SOILS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS The Carbon Coalition1 represents Australian farmers and those scientists and agronomists who believe: • that soil carbon can make a significant and dramatic impact on the overload of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, both current and future; • that Measurement, Monitoring and Verification of soil carbon for trading need not be difficult or expensive; • that equity demands that landholders be given access to the offsets they can grow in their soils to meet their liabilities arising from on- farm emissions from other GHGs. The case for Soil C Trading in Australia is based on 12 Key Factors: Key Factor #1: The Potential of Australian Soils The Coalition contends that the potential contribution of soils to removing carbon from the atmosphere is so great that, rather than its proponents having to argue for its consideration, those who oppose its deployment should be required to give evidence against this potential. No such evidence has been produced to date. The proponents, on the other hand, have produced evidence of the potential for Australian soils to sequester carbon. While no one research study has tested soil carbon sequestration under ideal conditions to reveal our soil’s full potential, several cases have recorded significant shifts that put the lie to commonly held misconceptions. • Exhibit 1: The NSW DPI, DECC and CSIRO are currently evaluating an increase in soul carbon recorded on grazing and cropping land from 2% to 4% recorded on “Winona”, Gulgong, between 1995 and 2005. 2 1 See Appendix 6. 2 Colin Sies, “Combinations That Move The Carbon Needle: Grazing Management, Pasture Cropping, and Biological Farming”, Carbon 4 • Exhibit 2: There was a 0.46% carbon difference between a paddock managed by conservation farming techniques (stubble retained/no-tillage) and a paddock heavily grazed and conventionally tilled over 10 years at Greenethorpe, NSW translated into a difference of 185 tonnes of carbon per hectare (or 675 tonnes of CO2e.)3 • Exhibit 3: A CSIRO study (unpublished) in Albany WA found a significant difference in organic matter between two paddocks, one stubble-burned 3 years previous then no-tillage treatment for three years (3.35% OM), the other managed with no-tillage (5% OM). • Exhibit 4: Dr K Yin Chan, Principal Research Scientist (Soils), NSW Department of Primary Industries, has a research project which has stretched over 20 years. In the soils studied, he found that there was on average 70 tonnes of soil carbon per hectare under undisturbed native vegetation. This fell dramatically to 40 T/ha under conventional tillage by the 1940s. It rose 5T/ha under Reduced Tillage, to 45T/ha. Dr Chan believes we can recover the (25T/ha) balance. He calls it the "Soil C Sequestration Potential".4 • Exhibit 5: “Permanent unimproved pastures in moister areas of NSW, SA, WA and Qld, after sowing to introduced grasses and legumes and fertilised with superphosphate have been shown to exhibit linear increases in soil C at a rate of about 0.4 t C ha-1 yr-1 over several decades.5 (Russell and Williams 1982, Gifford et al 1992). Farming Expo & Conference, 16th-17th November, 2007, AREC, Mudgee. Ian is Catchment Coordinator, Lachlan CMA, PO Box 510, Cowra 2794. 3 Ian Packer, “Quantifying the Obvious - Soil Management Impact on Soil Carbon Sequestration, Carbon Farming Expo & Conference, 16th-17th November, 2007, AREC, Mudgee. Ian is Catchment Coordinator, Lachlan CMA, PO Box 510, Cowra 2794. 4 Presentation at DPI farmers’ gathering at Junee Reef, 21 June, 2007. 5 Gifford RM, Cheney NP, Noble JC, Russell JS, Wellington AB and ZamitC (1992) Australian land use, primary production of vegetation and carbon pools in relation to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. pp151-187 in Australia’s Renewable Resources, Sustainability and Global Change. Roger M. Gifford and Michele M. Barson (Eds) Publ 5 • Exhibit 6: Barrow (1969) reported a soil C gain of 440 kg/ha/yr in sandy soils under permanent pasture during a period of 30-40 years in Western Australia. The pasture outscored undisturbed native vegetation on soil C by 2.0% to 0.8%.6 • Exhibit 7: Senior CSIRO soil scientist Jeff Baldock says there is today no technical barriers to a fully-functioning market in soil carbon, and that such a market could make it ‘more economic to farm for carbon than to farm for yield.’7 These case studies and other expert opinions indicate that Australia’s 450 million hectares of agricultural soils have the potential to make a powerful contribution to the national effort to mitigate Climate Change. Key Factor #2: Myths About Australian Soil C. The science of soil carbon has been misinterpreted in Australia, so much so that “myths” have gained traction in the public mind. The dominant view of the soil C sequestration potential of Australian soils in the scientific community, among policymakers and industry opinion leaders was established at a 2000 workshop sponsored by the CRC on Greenhouse Accounting on sequestration. The report concluded that: “Australian climate, soils and agricultural management histories are significantly different to those of developed countries in the northern hemisphere. These differences generally result in considerably less Bureau of Rural Resources and CSIRO Division of Plant Industry. Quoted in “Pasture improvement for potential additional C-sinks for inclusion under the Kyoto Protocol”, by Roger M. Gifford, Damian J. Barrett and Andrew Ash (with input from Miko Kirschbaum, John Donnelly, Richard Simpson and Mike Freer) for the Biosphere Working Group of the CSIRO Climate Change Research Program, 30 April, 1998 6 Barrow, N. J. 1969. The accumulation of soil organic matter under pasture and its effect on soil properties. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture and Animal Husbandry 9:437-445. 7 ABC Rural Radio, October 2007, Orange Field Days. 6 potential for increase in soil carbon stocks associated with changing crop or pasture management practices in Australia compared with northern temperate regions.”8. While this was not a definitive statement, the conclusion was distilled in an Australian Greenhouse Office policy framework document as: “Typically Australian soils have a poor capacity to store large quantities of carbon."9 This statement was based on research done for the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS). But analysis of Technical Reports 3410 and 43, the core data reports for the construction of the NCAS, reveals that the data sets are incomplete, focusing almost exclusively on conventional rather than regenerative land management techniques.
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