NIGERIA Borno and Yobe States Market Monitoring July 2020-ISSUE 38
SavingLives and Changing Lives Highlights
• In Borno and Yobe states, prices of key staples saw a seasonal upturn due to a decreased availability of market stocks since July, ascribed to the lean season, the underlying high inflation and Eid celebration late July.
• Between June and July, the cost of the Food Basket, which is 70% of Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) in Maiduguri and Jere, increased slightly from 19,072 Naira to 19,345 Naira. This now means that the SMEB is as high as at the highest point in the 2018 lean season.
• In Geidam (Yobe), the SMEB increased by ten (10) percent between June and July from 18,411 Naira to 20,228 Naira, being the cost of 100% of the Food Basket.
• The price of local rice which has continued to increase over three months in most markets of Borno, with Bullumkutu (19%), Baga (24%), Monday (30%) and Abbaganaram (31%). Similarly in Yobe, prices increased in Potiskum (16%), Nguru (18%), Gashua and Geidam (25%), Bursari and Gujba (38%) and Gulani (67%) being the notable cases.
• Over the last three months, the price of red beans did show a significant increase in some of the markets. In Borno, prices increased in Budum (20%), Kasuwan Shanu (26%), Bullumkutu (27%) and Baga (29%) markets. Also in Yobe, the retail price of red beans increased in Gashua (28%), Nguru (35%), Potiskum (38%) and Bursari (76%) markets.
• Furthermore, the prices of maize increased in Custom (13%), Tashan Bama (14%), Budum (25%) and Kasuwan Shanu (36%). In Yobe, maize prices increased in Bursari (25%), Gujba (29%), Geidam (33%), Gulani (47%), Potiskum (83%), Gashua and Nguru (85%) markets.
• Nigeria's annual inflation rate rose for a tenth straight month to 12.6% in June of 2020 from 12.4% in the prior month. The prices of most staple food commodities are generally expected to remain well above average in both Borno and Yobe States during the rest of the lean season months of August and September. A slight decrease is expected thereafter.
Introduction
The market price bulletin provides a synopsis of the changes observed in food prices and the impact of these changes on food access for vulnerable households in the Borno and Yobe States. It is against this backdrop, that WFP undertakes a biweekly monitoring of food commodities to gauge how vulnerable and market- dependent households are affected by food price changes and the resulting impact of such changes on the cost of the food basket.
In Borno State, the monitored markets include Monday market, Abbaganaram, Budum, Kasuwan Shanu, Bullumkutu, Baga Road, Tashan Bama, Custom market. In Yobe State, Damaturu, Bursari, Gujba, Potiskum, Jakusko, Geidam, Yunusari, Yusufari, Bade, Nguru and Gulani markets were monitored (Figure 1).
Borno and Yobe States Monthly Market Monitoring Report July 2020 - ISSUE 38 1
Figure 1 Market price monitoring locations in Borno and Yobe States
Maiduguri (Borno) market locations Yobe market locations
Food basket monitoring
The Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) outlines the minimum food items needed for survival of a household in a month. The basket comprises basic energy food requirements of 2,100 kilocalories per person per day and include food items like rice, maize, red beans, palm oil, vegetable oil, salt and sugar, consumed by the majority of households in the Northeast.
Between June and July, the cost of 70% of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) for a family of five increased slightly from 19,072 Naira to 19,345 Naira in Maiduguri and Jere. In Geidam, the SMEB (100%) increased by ten (10) percent between June and July (from 18,411 Naira to 20,228 Naira). In the same vein, an increase of the SMEB by 10 and 15 percent was recorded in Gulani and Nguru respectively.
The observed increase in the SMEB stems from the increase in prices of rice, peanuts, maize and red beans. The SMEB consists of key staples (rice, maize, beans and peanuts) which account for 85 percent of the food basket. Important to point out that the SMEB tables and trend below applies to Maiduguri, Jere and Geidam only.
Borno and Yobe States Monthly Market Monitoring Report July 2020 - ISSUE 38 2
Table 1: Transfer value calculated for 5 household members in Maiduguri & Jere markets for one month
HOUSEHOLD SIZE 5 Price/kg- Naira Price/HH/month Food Item gms/day/pp Kc/day/pp gms/HH/day gms/HH/month kg/HH/month (MPM) (Naira) Rice 150 540 750 22,500 22.50 633 14,243 Maize 250 913 1250 37,500 37.50 161 6,038 Beans 75 255 375 11,250 11.25 217 2,441 Palm oil 10 88 50 1,500 1.50 684 1,026 Groundnut 15 85 75 2,250 2.25 349 785 Sugar 10 39 50 1,500 1.50 505 758 G/nut oil/Veg Oil 20 177 100 3,000 3.00 680 2,040 Salt 5 0 25 750 0.75 95 71 Onion 8 3 40 1,200 1.20 196 235
Total 2,100 NGN 27,636.45 Cost food basket at 70%: 70% 1,470 NGN 19,345.52 Per capita based on 70% transfer value NGN 3,869.10
Table 2: Transfer value calculated for 5 household members in Geidam markets for one month
HOUSEHOLD SIZE 5 gms/d gms/HH/d gms/HH/m kg/HH/mont Price/kg- Naira Price/HH/month - Food Item Kc/day/pp ay/pp ay onth h (MPM) Naira Rice 150 540 750 22,500 22.50 370 8,325 Maize 250 913 1250 37,500 37.50 160 6,000 Beans 75 255 375 11,250 11.25 179 2,014 Palm oil 10 88 50 1,500 1.50 533 800 Groundnut 15 85 75 2,250 2.25 261 587 Sugar 10 39 50 1,500 1.50 423 635 G/nut oil/Veg Oil 20 177 100 3,000 3.00 533 1,599 Salt 5 0 25 750 0.75 160 120 Onion 8 3 40 1,200 1.20 125 150 Total 2,100 N 20,228.55 Cost food basket at 70%: 70% 1,470 N 14,159.99 Per capita based on 70% transfer value N 2,832.00
Trend in the cost of SMEB in MMC and Jere 25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00 NGN 10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Feb-18
Apr-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-19
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
May-18
May-19 May-20
MMC & Jere
Food items price trends in Borno and Yobe markets Overall, the prices of key staples have sustained an upward trend and have remained high in monitored markets in Borno and Yobe during the past three (3) months. Comparing June and July, the prices of food commodities like sorghum, maize, ground nuts, rice (local and imported) and red beans prices increased slightly or remained stable across the moni- tored markets in Borno, while in Yobe increase in prices were observed across most markets when compared to prices in June 2020.
Borno and Yobe States Monthly Market Monitoring Report July 2020 - ISSUE 38 3
Maize, imported rice and red beans price trend in MMC and Jere Figure 5: Depicts the nominal price of markets some key staples: maize flour, red 900 beans, ground nuts, local and import- 800 ed rice in the monitored markets in 700 MMC and Jere of Borno state. Com- 600
pared to July 2019, the prices of im- 500 NGN ported and local rice showed an in- 400 crease of 38 and 35 percent respec- 300 tively. However, the retail prices of 200 maize and groundnuts decreased by 8 100
and 2 percent respectively compared 0
Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20
to last year, while prices of red beans Jul-16
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20
Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19
Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20
Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19
Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19
Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 remained stable. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Maize flour Red beans Imported Rice Local rice Ground nuts
Maiduguri Markets Monitoring Update July 2020
% Change in Degree of % Change in Degree of current price change current price change
Commodity
Market
Market
Currrentprice Currrentprice
1 1 Month 3 Months 1 Month 3 Months 1 Month 3 Months 1 Month 3 Months Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 400 6.7% 0.0% 435 9% 8.8% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 205 2.5% 2.5% 205 3% 2.5% Onion (Grams) 105 5.0% 10.5% 110 10% 15.8% Palm oil (Litre) 410 -1.2% -2.4% 585 -3% 6.4% Red beans (1.25 Kg) 240 -4.0% 9.1% 285 -5% 26.7% Imported rice (1.25 Kg) 855 0.6% -1.7% 880 -2% 10.0%
Local rice (1.25 Kg) 520 -5.5% 30.0% 565 -6% 18.9% Monday market Monday
Vegetable oil (Litre) 415 3.8% -1.2% market Bullumkutu 590 -2% 7.3% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 160 3.2% 6.7% 180 6% 12.5%
Peanuts (Kg) 420 5.0% 1.2% 285 -19% 14% Maize flour (Kg) 205 2.5% 2.5% 170 -6% 13% Onion (Grams) 105 5.0% 10.5% 100 0% 25% Palm oil (Litre) 410 2.5% -1.2% 505 6% 1% Red beans (Kg) 245 -2.0% 8.9% 305 11% 9% Imported rice (Kg) 860 -4.4% 7.5% 815 -9% 14%
Local rice (Kg) 545 -9.2% 31.3% 495 4% 6%
Abba Ganaram Abba Custom market Custom Vegetable oil (Litre) 420 -2.3% 1.2% 505 9% 1% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 160 0.0% 3.2% 160 0% 7%
Peanuts (Kg) 427 6.8% 6.8% 400 4% 7% Maize flour (Kg) 205 2.3% 2.3% 245 -6% 36% Onion (Grams) 115 15.0% 15.0% 80 14% 14% Palm oil (Litre) 530 -3.6% 10.4% 585 -3% 6% Red beans (Kg) 265 -11.5% 29.5% 270 -4% 26% Imported rice (Kg) 820 -3.5% 5.1% 780 -3% 1%
Local rice (Kg) 535 -10.8% 24.4% 440 10% 1% Kasuwan Shanu Kasuwan
Baga Road market Road Baga Vegetable oil (Litre) 560 -6.7% 9.8% 540 -2% 8% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 160 6.7% 10.3% 145 -3% 21%
Peanuts (Kg) 410 -3.5% 12.3% 290 -17% 10% Maize flour (Kg) 225 -2.2% 25.0% 160 -9% 14% Onion (Grams) 80 14.3% 14.3% 95 -14% 19% Palm oil (Litre) 580 -3.3% 7.4% 510 -7% 2% Red beans (Kg) 270 -3.6% 20.0% 290 5% 5% Imported rice (Kg) 760 1.3% -1.3% 820 -9% 7%
Local rice (Kg) 450 0.0% 4.7% Bama Tashan 485 -8% 8% Budum market Budum Vegetable oil (Litre) 540 -1.8% 8.0% 515 -6% 3% Sorghum (1.25 Kg) 145 -3.3% 11.5% 155 3% 0% Price increase above normal price fluctuation Price fluctuation is considered normal if Normal Price Fluctuation Prices in Naira price change is within 5% for 1 month or Price decrease below normal price fluctuation within 10% for 3 months
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Yobe Markets Monitoring Update July 2020
% Change in Degree of % Change in Degree of current price change current price change
Commodity
Market
Market
Currrentprice
Currrentprice
1 1 Month
3 3 Months
1 1 Month
3 3 Months
1 1 Month
3 3 Months
1 1 Month 3 3 Months Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 325 8.3% 23.8% 400 14.3% 23.1% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 275 22.2% 83.3% 250 42.9% 85.2% Onion (Grams) 200 0.0% 100.0% 100 150.0% 0.0% Palm oil (Litre) 340 13.3% 17.2% 400 14.3% 25.0% Red beans (1.25 Kg) 275 37.5% 37.5% 290 20.8% 34.9%
Imported rice (1.25 Kg) 700 7.7% 7.7% Nguru 675 3.8% 12.5% Potiskum Local rice (1.25 Kg) 550 10.0% 15.8% 500 11.1% 17.6% Vegetable oil (Litre) 445 1.1% 8.5% 400 12.7% 14.3% Yam (1 tuber) 375 -16.7% -11.8% 500 0.0% 25.0%
Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 400 6.7% 23.1% 300 0.0% 0.0% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 250 37.1% 84.6% 200 33.3% 33.3% Onion (Grams) 100 150.0% 0.0% 50 0.0% -41.2% Palm oil (Litre) 400 14.3% 25.0% 400 0.0% 14.3%
Red beans (1.25 Kg) 290 14.6% 27.9% 220 0.0% 10.0% Gashua Imported rice (1.25 Kg) 675 7.7% 21.7% Geidam NA 0.0% 0.0% Local rice (1.25 Kg) 500 8.4% 24.8% 500 0.0% 25.0% Vegetable oil (Litre) 400 8.1% 14.3% 400 0.0% 14.3% Yam (1 tuber) 500 0.0% 25.0% 375 7.1% -6.3%
Peanuts (1.25 Kg) 300 0.0% 0.0% 550 46.7% 69.2% Maize flour (1.25 Kg) 250 11.1% 47.1% 225 4.7% 28.6% Onion (Grams) 80 0.0% -5.9% 100 33.3% 25.0% Palm oil (Litre) 165 -54.2% -54.2% 350 7.7% 0.0%
Red beans (1.25 Kg) 220 0.0% 0.0% 350 55.6% 100.0% Gujba Gulani Imported rice (1.25 Kg) NA 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% Local rice (1.25 Kg) 500 -100.0% 66.7% 550 10.0% 37.5% Vegetable oil (Litre) 400 -100.0% 2.6% 400 0.0% 14.3% Yam (1 tuber) 300 -100.0% 0.0% 600 0.0% 9.1% Price increase above normal price fluctuation Price fluctuation is considered normal if Normal Price Fluctuation Prices in Naira price change is within 5% for 1 month or Price decrease below normal price fluctuation within 10% for 3 months Conclusion
There is a likelihood for food prices to reach its highest in August, the peak of the lean season. Against the background of seasonal decline in household food stocks and in- creased demands would contribute to sustained increase in food prices in the two states, which is likely to further hamper food access for the most vulnerable households who are already facing limited livelihood opportunities.
For further information please contact: VAM Team, WFP Nigeria, [email protected] [email protected]
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