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Andalas Energy and Power Plc* 25 October 2018

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Andalas Energy and Power Plc* 25 October 2018 Barney Gray (Research Analyst) +44 (0) 20 3137 1906 Graeme Dickson (Dealing Desk) +44 (0) 20 3411 1880 Hal Norwood (Dealing Desk) +44 (0) 20 3411 1882 Vishal Balasingham (Institutional Sales) +44 (0) 20 3411 1881 16 Christian Dennis (CEO/Corporate Broking) +44 (0) 20 3137 1903 Andalas Energy and Power plc* 25 October 2018 BUY A renewed strategy to deliver value Andalas is an AIM-quoted oil and gas E&P company with a growing portfolio of assets in the Stock Data UK and Indonesia. Its core assets include an 8.0% interest in the imminent Colter appraisal Share Price: 0.82p well on UK offshore licence P1918 in Q4 2018 and a 25.0% investment in Eagle Gas Limited Market cap.: £3.2m* Shares in issue: 385.0m* which holds a 66.67% interest in UK Licence P2112 in the Southern North Sea, containing Fully diluted equity: 489.3m* the large Badger gas prospect. Andalas also recently entered into a deal to acquire 25% of *Pro forma until Bunga Mas PSC deal is completed the Bunga Mas PSC in Indonesia with the right to increase this interest to 100% upon the undertaking of new development activity on the Bunga Mawar field. Company Profile Since the appointment of new CEO, Simon Gorringe in October 2017, Andalas has re- Sector: Oil & Gas orientated its focus from integrating upstream assets with wellhead located independent Exchange: AIM power producers (IPPs) in Indonesia to conventional E&P opportunities with a broader Ticker: ADL geographical focus. Activities On 21 September 2018, Andalas acquired an 8.0% interest in UKCS Licence P1918 through a Andalas is an AIM-quoted oil and gas E&P farm-in deal with the operator Corallian Energy whereby Andalas will pay 10.67% of the cost company with a portfolio of exploration and of an upcoming appraisal well on the exciting Colter prospect. This well, currently scheduled appraisal assets located in the UKCS in addition to be drilled in Q4 2018, will target over 19 mmbbls of mean contingent and prospective to significant exploration, appraisal and resources in a location updip from the original discovery well. In the event of a successful development interests in Sumatra in Indonesia. outcome, the operator believes that Colter could be developed through the existing onshore Wytch Farm oil field facilities located in close proximity. Performance data In July 2018, Andalas completed a deal increase its interest to 25.0% in Eagle Gas Limited, a private UK oil and gas company. Eagle’s primary asset is a 66.67% interest in UK Licence P2112 which contains the large Badger gas prospect, one of the largest undrilled targets in the Southern North Sea. Badger is estimated to contain mean prospective resources of almost 400 BCF over four intervals. As a function of the company’s investment in Eagle rather than the licence itself, Andalas may see its exposure to Badger diluted in the event that Eagle farms down its position prior to exploratory drilling. However, we would view such as scenario as positive given that such an Directors outcome has the potential to secure full or part funding for an initial exploration well and de- Robert Arnott: Chairman Simon Gorringe: CEO risk Andalas’ investment significantly. Dan Jorgensen: Finance. Director Leveraging its accumulated experience in Indonesia, Andalas entered into a conditional Ross Warner: Legal & Commercial agreement to acquire an initial 25% participating interest in the Bunga Mas Production Sharing Contract (PSC) on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia in late August 2018. This deal Important Notice gives Andalas the right to increase its interest in Bunga Mas to 49% and ultimately to 100% OSL’s investment research products are paid for upon the undertaking of new exploration and development activity on the PSC. by corporate clients as part of their retainer fee. As such, this document falls under Article 12 3 Bunga Mas contains the Bunga Mawar oil field on which the company will focus its initial (b) of the European Commission’s Delegated appraisal programme. If successful, this work is expected to form the basis of a longer term Directive of 7 April 2016 and it qualifies as an development plan. The potential economics of Bunga Mawar and the wider licence, which ‘acceptable minor non-monetary benefit’ and contains substantial exploration and appraisal upside, are greatly enhanced by the existence does not qualify as ‘chargeable research’. OSL of an historical cost pool of US$111.7m, the recovery of even a proportion could greatly are therefore able to send this document to enhance the economics of a development programme. investors without the requirement for any compensation to be paid to OSL from the We believe that Andalas could be worth 5.6p per share on a fully diluted basis with upside recipients – it is ‘freely available’. potential of up to 10.9p per share. We envisage that the company will require additional funding in mid-2019 in order to expedite an appraisal programme at Bunga Mawar. *Optiva Securities acts as joint broker to However, near term activity in the UK, particularly in regards to Andalas’ participation in Andalas Energy and Power plc. the Colter well is fully funded and we expect news flow to accelerate significantly over Q4 2018 as drilling operations commence. 1 Contents Introduction to Andalas Energy & Power 3 A change of strategy 3 Andalas assets in summary 3 Recent corporate activity 4 Company valuation summary 5 Potential funding requirement 5 UKCS Licence P1918 – Colter appraisal well 6 The Colter prospect 7 Estimated valuation 9 UK exploration: Interest in Eagle Gas Limited 10 Work programme on Badger 10 Indicative valuation 13 Indonesian oil and gas sector overview 14 Historical lack of investment now provides opportunities 15 Indonesian fiscal terms for oil and gas 19 Key components 19 Gross Split PSC – an alternative fiscal model 20 The Bunga Mas PSC 21 Bunga Mas PSC resources 22 Valuation focused on Bunga Mawar 23 Resource upside on Bunga Mas 25 Appendix 1 - Directors’ Biographies 26 Appendix 2 – Badger natural gas liquids 27 Appendix 3 – Details of the Bunga Mas acquisition 28 Disclaimer 29 2 Introduction to Andalas Energy and Power Andalas Energy and Power is an AIM-quoted oil and gas E&P junior with assets located in the UK and Indonesia. Over the last twelve months, Andalas has drastically realigned the long term strategy of the business by enacting several fundamental changes across all aspects of the company. A change of strategy Management changes In October 2017, Andalas instigated a number of key changes to its Board of Directors including the appointment of new CEO, Simon Gorringe, appointed to steer the company’s new strategy focused on conventional E&P opportunities that offer investors exposure to a range of exploration, development and production opportunities and a more balanced risk reward portfolio. This move was consolidated with the appointment of former non-executive director, Dr Robert Arnott to the role of chairman in April 2018. Dr Arnott has significant experience in the UK North Sea and was appointed to guide Andalas’ refocused operational strategy over the longer term. More details regarding the current Andalas management can be found in Appendix 1 at the end of this report. Operational changes As the current company name implies, Andalas historically focused on developing upstream assets with a view to applying innovative technical solutions to monetise undeveloped reserves. This original strategy was focused on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia where the company was attempting to integrate upstream oil and gas production assets with wellhead located independent power producers (IPPs) or export pipelines. However, at the time of the company’s recent final results announcement, Andalas outlined the results of a detailed review of the business and announced that it will concentrate on conventional E&P opportunities and broaden its geographical focus to include regions outside its existing operations in Indonesia. This was driven in part by the company’s frustrations over its ability to both advance and influence its portfolio of wellhead IPPs over the longer term but more by the availability of new exciting opportunities which imply considerably greater growth prospects for the group. Consequently, the legacy Indonesian projects have been mothballed in order to both preserve the group’s financial resources and save substantial amounts of management time which will now be focused on the current portfolio. Andalas assets in summary In the space of less than six months, Andalas has completely re-orientated the business with several acquisitions that we expect to drive the future growth of the company. In the UK, the company has leveraged the current management’s considerable North Sea experience and acquired exciting exposure to a range of exploration and appraisal opportunities. These are: • An 8.00% interest in UKCS Licence P1918 providing the company with exposure to upcoming near- offshore appraisal drilling focused on the Colter prospect. • A 16.67% indirect interest in UKCS Licence P2112 through Andalas’ 25.00% interest in Eagle Gas Limited (which holds 66.67% of P2112). Licence P2112 contains the large Badger prospect which is estimated to contain nearly 400 BCF of gas over multiple horizons. 3 In Indonesia, where the company has gained years of valuable experience, Andalas has acquired an initial 25% interest in the Bunga Mas PSC (Production Sharing Contract) on South Sumatra. This deal provides Andalas with economic control of the project and the right to increase its interest in the licence to 49% and then to 100% upon the completion of certain operational milestones. Location maps of Andalas’ core portfolio assets Source: Company Recent corporate activity Over the course of 2018, Andalas has conducted several modest placings in connection with the rejuvenated strategy for the company.
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