LEE Mapping Analysis Report
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Local Energy East Mapping Analysis Report May 2018 ______________________________________________________ A narrative on conclusions drawn from the mapping work on the Local Energy East area incorporating views on network company forward plans and government policy. Disclaimer While Cornwall Insight considers the information and opinions given in this report and all other documentation are sound, all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgement when making use of it. Cornwall Insight will not assume any liability to anyone for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of this report howsoever caused. The report makes use of information gathered from a variety of sources in the public domain and from confidential research that has not been subject to independent verification. No representation or warranty is given by Cornwall Insight as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. Cornwall Insight makes no warranties, whether express, implied, or statutory regarding or relating to the contents of this report and specifically disclaims all implied warranties, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantable quality and fitness for a particular purpose. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Contents 1 Executive summary 4 1.1 Geographical extent 4 1.2 Local Energy East’s ambitions 4 1.3 Summary of findings 5 1.4 Structure of document 6 2 Energy data-mapping portal 7 3 High level indicators 11 3.1 Regional energy developments 11 3.2 New Anglia economic plans 11 3.3 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough economic plans 12 3.4 Hertfordshire economic plans 12 3.5 East Anglia vs national averages 13 4 Approach and framework 14 5 Local Energy East themes 15 5.1 Housing and commercial growth sites 15 5.2 Electrification of transport 15 5.3 Secure, affordable, low-carbon domestic power consumption 15 5.4 Summary influences from LEP development priorities 15 6 Characteristics of the networks 16 6.1 Electricity transmission network 16 6.2 Electricity distribution network 18 6.3 Conclusions for the electricity system 19 6.4 Gas transmission system 21 6.5 Gas distribution system 24 6.6 Conclusions for the gas system 25 7 Existing and planned situation 27 7.1 Housing and commercial growth sites 27 7.2 Electrification of transport, including hydrogen 30 7.3 Secure, affordable, low-carbon domestic power consumption 34 8 Future developments 42 8.1 Housing and commercial growth sites 42 8.2 Electrification of transport, including hydrogen 42 8.3 Secure, affordable, low-carbon domestic power consumption 42 9 Appendix 1: Local tariffs 44 10 Appendix 2: National forecasts 45 1 Executive summary 1.1 Geographical extent This report, and the energy data-mapping portal, focuses on the area of responsibility of the Local Energy East (LEE) project. LEE areas consists of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough LEP, Hertfordshire LEP and New Anglia LEP, which covers 34 local authority (LA) areas in the East of England. We refer to this area as the ‘LEE area’. Due to limitations on some of the data sets available, we have at times had to use data covering different areas. For example, the government provides data sets referring to the East of England, an administrative region covering most of the LEE area, but which also covers Bedfordshire and Essex, and does not cover the two areas in south Lincolnshire. We also refer to the Eastern Power Networks (EPN) area, a region of the electricity distribution system which covers the LEE area but also extends into Essex. As these datasets do not line up precisely with the LEE area, we have minimised the use of them, and have noted where we have used these datasets. 1.2 Local Energy East’s ambitions Local Energy East (LEE) has articulated three themes for its proposed strategy: supporting housing growth and commercial sites infrastructure, supporting the transition to transport electrification including hydrogen, and ensuring secure, affordable, low-carbon domestic energy consumption. We review these themes separately, across the whole area, and then highlight any pertinent points of interest between the larger area, urban and rural areas, and between the three LEP areas. Figure 1: LEE project analysis and modelling scenario mix Cambs & New Whole Urban Rural P’boro Herts area Anglia area area area Housing growth and commercial sites infrastructure Transition to transport electrification including hydrogen Secure, affordable, low carbon domestic consumption Source: LEE 4 1.3 Summary of findings 1.3.1 Housing growth and commercial sites infrastructure Development of new commercial and housing sites will be much easier from an energy perspective in the Hertfordshire LEP area than in the other two LEP areas. In particular, Cambridgeshire is highly electrically constrained, and developments may require substantial investment in new grid capacity or innovative solutions to bring forwards. Development of new energy resources is concentrated on the coast of New Anglia LEP area, with large amounts of wind generation capacity planned, as well as a major new nuclear reactor at Sizewell. Connection of distributed generation is, or will be, feasible across most of the LEE area, and could be used to support new demand-side developments. 1.3.2 Transition to transport electrification including hydrogen The LEE area uses more energy in transportation than the national average and causes more carbon emissions as a result of this. There is little or no hydrogen infrastructure in the LEE area, but EV chargers are present in very limited numbers in most cities, towns and along transport arteries. EPN’s commitment to provide on request all households with enough capacity to allow a 7kW EV charger will support domestic charging but installing large numbers of rapid chargers in urban environments or at service areas is likely to run into capacity issues; Cambridge City Council has already faced this issue. EPN is keen to work with parties to resolve these issues, however. There is little current penetration of the regional market by compressed natural gas (CNG), liquified natural gas (LNG), or hydrogen as fuel sources. Anglian Bus’ Beccles depot was home to a fleet of 13 CNG buses and a CNG compressor; it is not clear if these continue to operate following the company’s take-over by Konectbus. 1.3.3 Secure, affordable, low carbon domestic consumption The best way to reduce domestic energy bills in the short term is to switch tariff and supplier. This can save around one-third on bills, compared to Big Six standard variable tariffs. Switching across the LEE area was around 16% last year compared to a 22% national average; more therefore needs to be done in this space. In the long term, reducing domestic bills will require increasing the energy efficiency of the housing stock. There are also opportunities to increase the rollout of ECO measures in the LEE area, which is relatively low (benefiting 1.3% fewer households than the national average), and to make the most of the last year or so of the Feed-in Tariff to subsidise community energy generation, for the benefit of social housing groups, for example. Many parts of the LEE area are not connected to the gas grid. Approximately 12% of households are not connected. These are concentrated in New Anglia, with fewer in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and a few in Hertfordshire. Households off the gas grid are correlated to increased prevalence of fuel poverty, and higher carbon emissions. There are many options to correct this, including ECO, renewable heat sources, and district heat networks. The former will be important in upgrading the energy of existing properties, while the latter two may be of more significant when deploying new housing to the LEE area. 5 Additionally, while extending the gas grid to target these areas is a short-term solution to the problems of fuel poverty and high carbon emissions, pressures on the gas distribution grid may not be sustainable over the long term. 1.4 Structure of document Section One – Executive summary Section Two – Introduction to the energy data-mapping portal Section Three – High level indicators Section Four – Approach and framework Section Five – LEE themes Section Six – Characteristics of the networks and network operator plans Section Seven – Existing situation and current planned developments Section Eight – Anticipated future developments Appendices – Energy supplier tariffs | National forecasts 6 2 Energy data-mapping portal A key step in delivering the Energy Market Innovation Project (EMIP), which aims to identify and progress energy innovation projects in East Anglia, is to scope out a wide range of energy-related information in the LEE area. The findings of this undertaking will be accessible via the Energy data website, which will take the user to a portal where the data maps are presented and can be overlaid upon each other (up to five layers). The tri-LEP LEE project – consisting of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough LEP, Hertfordshire LEP and New Anglia LEP – which has contributed to the costs of this work. The energy data-mapping portal will provide baseline information about various aspects of energy, primarily shown through geographical placemarks, polygons and heat maps. Information will focus on the current energy landscape, as well as forecasts or projections that may be relevant (Figure 2). The intention is that presenting the energy landscape in this way will make it easier for stakeholders to identify opportunity areas or areas of constraint in the LEE area, and thus inform their decisions and strategies going forward. Figure 2: Index of energy data-mapping portal layers Topic Data source and description Gas transmission National Grid Gas network Indication of the gas transmission pipelines in the LEE area National Grid Gas Gas sites Above Ground Installations (AGIs) and Compressor Stations (CSs) are located at strategic points along the transmission pipeline.