New Perspectives Frank Witter Member of the Board of Management Exane BNP Paribas and Barclays Geneva Motor Show Conference, Geneva, 1 March 2016 Disclaimer
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Volkswagen Group – New Perspectives Frank Witter Member of the Board of Management Exane BNP Paribas and Barclays Geneva Motor Show Conference, Geneva, 1 March 2016 Disclaimer The following presentations contain forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Volkswagen Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “will” or words with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those forecast. Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such as in Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA, Brazil or China, will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese renminbi and Czech koruna. If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date of publication and can be superceded. This information does not constitute an offer to exchange or sell or an offer to exchange or buy any securities. 2 How the NOx issue will be solved Europe (approved by KBA) USA EA189 2.0 l (EU5): ~ 5.2m units EA189 2.0 l EA189 2.0 l EA288 2.0 l • Software fix only (Gen 1): (Gen 2): (Gen 3): • Working time ca 30 min. ~ 0.4m units ~ 0.1m units ~ 0.1m units • Fix started in Q1 2016 EA189 1.6 l (EU5): ~ 3m units • Soft- and Hardware fix required • Working time < 1h • Fix starts in Q3 2016 EA189 1.2 l (EU5): ~ 0.3m units Currently coordinating viable solution • Software fix only concepts and time lines with the responsible • Working time ca 30 min. authorities EPA and CARB • Fix starts in Q2 2016 3 Our 5 top priorities Helping our customers In progress Communicating & providing effective technical solutions Uncovering what happened Report based on Jones Day investigation Finding out the truth and learning from it second half of April New structure In progress Launching a more entrepreneurial & decentralized Group structure New mindset In progress Profoundly changing the way we do things New destination Strategy 2025 Re-evaluating what we do & re-defining our targets (Mid-2016) 4 Publications of 2015 figures and AGM delayed due to remaining open questions and resulting valuation calculations relating to diesel issue Event Previous Date Status Statement regarding result 2015 Annual press Delayed March 10, 2016 conference Delayed Annual General Meeting April 21, 2016 “Before special items Volkswagen anticipates the Operating Result for the Group at the level of the Jones Day report on prior year” background and Sticking responsibilities Second half of April 2016 to timing connected to Diesel ✔ issue 5 Volkswagen Group reduces level of capex and resets priorities Investments in property, plant and equipment Prioritization and focus on digitalization and e-mobility Prior planning as of November 2014 New planning as of November 2015 Uncertainty requires Cancellation or delay of all €64.3 bn prioritization of projects that are not investments absolutely necessary ~€13 bn max €12 bn Not jeopardizing our future: Focus on new products, spending on digitalization continuing rollout and and alternative drive train enhancement of toolkits, technologies will be completion of ongoing increased further capacity expansion 2015 - 2019 Ø per year 2016 6 Development World Car Market vs. Volkswagen Group Car Deliveries to Customers1) (Growth y-o-y in deliveries to customers, January to December 2015 vs. 2014) bf World: Market: 2.6% Volkswagen Group: -1.8% Market VW Group Market VW Group Market VW Group Cars + LCV 9.0% 6,1% 4,3% 5,1% -7,7% -23.3% North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Market VW Group Market VW Group Market VW Group 4.0% 2.5% 2,6% -3,0% -21,2% -29,0% South America Rest of World Asia Pacific 1) Figures excl. Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania and MAN. 7 Volkswagen Group – Deliveries to Customers by Brands (January to December 2015 vs. 2014) ‘000 units 1) January – December 2014 12.000 -2.0% January – December 2015 10.1379,931 10.000 Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles 8.000 -4.8% 6.119 5.823 6.000 4.000 +3.6% +1.8% +2.4% -3.5% 1.7411.803 +18.6% 2.000 -14.7% -4.0% 1.0371.056 391 400 447 431 190 225 120 102 80 77 Volkswagen 2) Group 1) Incl. all brands of Volkswagen Group (Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles); -1.8% excl. Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania and MAN. 8 2) MAN incl. MAN Latin America Trucks and Busses GVW > 5t Volkswagen Group – Generating cash and robust financial position Automotive Division - Net Liquidity Funding programs as of September 30 1) (in € bn) (in € bn) 30 27,8 Money and Capital Markets Utilization 25 Commercial Papers 5.5 Medium Term Notes / Bonds 60.0 thereof: Hybrid Bonds 7.5 20 ABS2) 26.5 16,9 17,6 Borrowings 15 Committed Lines 2.2 Uncommitted Lines 7.7 Supranationals, development banks, government, other 16.0 10 Direct Banking Deposits 23.5 Total Amount 141.4 5 Bridge facility up to €20 bn 0 1) Excluding Porsche, MAN, Scania 2013 2014 Sept 30 2015 2) Including Porsche, MAN Source: Volkswagen Group 9 Volkswagen Group – Outlook for 2015 + 4.2% ■ As commented in our Press Release on February 5th, 2016, the Operating Result 10,137 Deliveries to 9,731 for the Group before Special Items will be at the level of the prior year with an customers Operating Margin within the forecast range between 5.5% and 6.5%. (‘000 vehicles) + 2.8% In terms of Operating Profit… 202.5 197.0 ■ due to the impact relating to the Diesel issue we anticipate a Group Operating Sales revenue Profit after Special Items as well as for the Passenger Cars Business Area (€ billion) significantly below the prior year level. 6.3 Operating return 5.9 ■ For the Financial Services Division, we are forecasting an Operating Profit at the on sales prior-year level. (%) 2013 2014 Full Year 10 Passenger car market forecast 2016 – overall growth expected bf(in million units) 19,6 20,8 21,3 13,2 13,4 12,1 3,6 2,8 2.8 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 75,6 77,4 79,2 North America 1) Western Europe Eastern Europe 2014 2015 2016 30,4 31,6 33,3 5,2 4,7 4,7 4,7 4,3 3,7 World 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 South America 1) Asia-Pacific Rest of World Source: IHS Economics as of February 2016 1) Passenger cars and Light Commercial Vehicles 11 Volkswagen Group – all major brands grew deliveries in January (January 2016 vs. 2015) ‘000 units 1) January 2015 1.000 +3.7% January 2016 848 818 800 Passenger Cars Commercial Vehicles +2.8% 600 507 521 400 +4.0% +5.2% +0.1% +2.1% 200 +24.2% 138 143 +21.4% +6.1% 87 92 31 31 28 28 16 20 6 7 5 5 0 Volkswagen 2) Group 1) Incl. all brands of Volkswagen Group (Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles); +3.6% excl. Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania and MAN. 12 2) MAN incl. MAN Latin America Trucks and Busses GVW > 5t Product firework1) aligns with expected future market trends Body group trends until 20202) New models 2016 and to follow Volume in 2015 3) until 2020 Sedan Sedan +9% Voyage A6L e-tron Panamera Phideon SUV +30% Magotan Hatchback +15% SUV Pick-Up +11% A+ SUV Ateca Q5 B-SUV Entry SUV MPV +4% Bentayga Tiguan Q2 Transporter +13% Hatchback Micro Van +14% Rapid (IND) up! Estate -6% A3 Leon Gol City Van +20% Other +15% Coupe 911 Cayman A5 million 01020 Beetle Amarok Saveiro Boxster 1) Schematic overview – does not show all models 2) Source: IHS 3)final figures 13 Tightening environmental regulation and major trends driving R&D expenditures and Group strategy … CO₂ and EU6 regulations … Market / consumer trends Status and forecast of CO₂-regulations 270 EU US-LDV China (PC+LDT) Shorter Digitalization 250 lifecycles 230 US baseline: 219 210 China baseline: 185 SUV 190 E-mobility trend 170 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC per kilometer, normalized China 2015: 167 2 150 130 EU baseline: 142 US 2025:107 Grams CO Automated Shift in 110 driving priorities EU 2020: 95 90 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: based on ICCT 14 Volkswagen is making digital transformation a top priority with focus on digitalization and autonomous driving Volkswagen Group Future Centers Autonomous driving • 91% of accidents caused by human error reduce number of bf accidents • People spend more than 4 years of their life in the car on average make that time usable for the driver • Huge potential for trucks significantly higher productivity • Car parked most of the day customer achieves best return on investment by fully utilizing the car • Infrastructure limited has to be used more efficiently 21st Century: 20th Century: Engine is the Self-driving system is the core of the automobile core of the automobile Top fields of use • Three new Volkswagen Group Future Centers in Europe, California and Asia Individual Public Commercial Premium • Approach: designers and digitalization experts work hand in hand urban transport- vehicles cars to create the car of the