(Martime) Migration as a Challenge for Europe

2nd European-South American Regional Security Symposium 27 April 2016

Dr. Patricia Schneider

IFSH 25.04.2016 1. Numbers and facts: global migration

Countries with the largest numbers of refugees:  60 million people migrate worldwide, this number includes: migrants, returnees, asylum seekers and internally displaced persons (IDP‘S)

 90 percent of the migrants are taken by developing countries  IDP‘s are the biggest group: in 2014 38,2 Million IDP‘s have been counted

Source : BMZ, Daten auf Abb. von Ende 2014 Link:https://www.facebook.com/BMZ.Bund/photos/a.193549867372151.47951.192941487432989/957773320949798/?type=3&fref=nf Date: 31.10.2015

IFSH Page 2 1. Numbers and facts: Global migration

2014: most of the refugees are in Turkey (1,51 million), Iran (982 Tsd), Destination countrys of Syrian migrants 2014: Ethiopia (659 Tsd) and Jordan (654 Tsd)  March 2016: 4.8 Mio. registreed Syrian Refugees: Türkey (2.7 Mio.), Libanon (1.07 Mio.), Jordan (639 Tsd.), Irak (246 Tsd.), Ägypten (118 Tsd). EU: 616 Tsd registrations (4th place); plus IDPs: 6,5 Mio., hum. assistance for 13.5 UNHCR programs for refugees (not only for Syria) chronically underfinanced (only 61% of needed budget end of 2015)

IFSH Page 3 Migrant Routes

Source: http://missingmigrants.iom.int/ IFSH Page 4 2. Maritme migrants and European missions

European missions/initiatives:

1. Mare Nostrum 2. Triton 3. EUROSUR 4. MARSUR Picture: http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016number-03/eu-fluechtlingeof-tuerkeidead-balkanroutemartime-obergrenzen migrants in 5. EUNAVFOR MED the Mediterran has risen considerably (2015: 3,770 deads/missing) 6. NATO Mission:  after the catstrophe in Lampedusa Standing Nato Maritime Group 2 2013, there was a enhanced medial focus on migration and several operations had been implemented

IFSH Page 5 2. Maritme migration and routes

IFSH Page 6 2. migration flows: routes and numbers

Quelle und Copyrights: Frontex 2016

IFSH Page 7 2. Maritime migration and navy missions

1.Mare Nostrum  Mare Nostrum reaction to the Lampedusa happenings 2013 an operation from the italien navy to rescue migrants mainly from african countries, brought to Italy where they could ask for asylum. Picture:http://isaac.guidasicilia.it/foto/news/cronaca/operazione_mare_nostrum3_N.jpg the Italien Government demanded more finacial support Critique: incentive for migrants? and distribution of migrants from ending did not stop, push-factors other EU countries and cancelled more important than pull-factors. the operation in 2014 as a protest In total: 150.000 people have act been rescued during october 2013 and october 2014

IFSH Page 8 EU-Security Strategy

- European Maritime Security Strategy (EUMSS) – June 2014

-Definition of maritime Security risks, -interests

-Concretisation (Absatz Vc):

-„transnational and organised crime, including piracy and armed robbery on the sea, human trafficking, organised criminal networks, (…), illegal weapon and drug trade, Smuggling“ ->Coordination national/europ. authorities

Purpose: coherent maritime Governance, pan-european approach

Purpose: „With the efficiently use of all EU instruments embedded in a comprehensive approach, the EU can deal with all risks and threats to its maritime Security, remove the causes and to restore "Good Governance“ – EUMSS, S. 9

IFSH – Dr. Patricia Schneider, [email protected] Page 9 2. Maritime migration and European missions

2.Triton  Nov. 2014: Frontex (frontières extérieures) operation to support Italys S&R , also focus: border protection and surveillance, detection of traffickers 26 states take part at „Triton“ in April 2015 EU trebled the finacial resources of the operation and as an

result more boats, helicopters and Picture: http://kissingenstrasse12.de/grenzschutz-zu-welchem-preis-uber-die-organisation-frontex/ airplanes could surveille a bigger area of Frontex: the mediterranen sea European Agency for the Plus private S&R, missions contributed Management to the fact that the route route from of Operational Cooperation at the Libya to Med was less used (also: External opening of Balkan-route). Borders of the Member States of the European Union

IFSH Page 10 2. Martime Migration and European missions

3. EUROSUR European border surveillance system by FRONTEX, since Dec. 2013  an information-exchange 4.MARSUR (military counterpart) framework which provides Maritime Surveillance Network launched information collected from satellites in September 2006 and drones containing 17 Member States plus primary goal: management of Norway border surveillance, the detection of boats and to improve the reaction the network aims to improve the capability in combating cross-border exchange of operational maritime crime and preventing loss of surveillance information and services such migrant lives at sea as ship positions, tracks an identification data between participating states cooperation with the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and The project has highlighted the need to the EU Satellite Centre (SatCen). control information in the maritime domain

https://www.eda.europa.eu/what-we-do/activities/activities-search IFSH /maritime-surveillance-%28marsur%29 Page 11 Picture: http://marsur.info/start.php 2. Martime Migration and European missions

5. Operation Sophia after the increasing number of deaths in the mediterranean sea in April 2015 (1,244 death/missing people), the German govenment sent naval ships there (Start: 07.05.2015)

5,673 people have been http://www.einsatz.bundeswehr.de/portal/a/einsatzbw rescued since then at the beginning (07.05.2015) German Navy acts without a mandate in June 2015 it proceeds with the European Union Naval Force – Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR MED) and started, operating with a mandate later in time it was renamed to Operation Sophia (which was a hommage to a Somalian girl born on board)

IFSH Page 12 2. Martime Migration and European missions

6. NATO mission: the NATO is involved since March 2016 to fight against irregular migration as well as to collect information for Frontex ,the turkish and the greek government Turkey is not a member of the EU but a member of the NATO, which is why the German Minister for Germany, Greece and Turkey requested the Defence Ursula von der Leyen involvement of the NATO argued: A mandate from the German Bundestag is not the permanent representation of the ships: necessary because there are no „Standing Nato Maritime Group 2“ was armed soldiers on board, and placed between the turkish and greek waters the NATO has no executive power, the mission is rather focused on just collecting information

Source: http://www.taz.de/picture/987389/948/Eunavfor_Med_Schleswig-Holstein_dpa_10sep2015.jpeg IFSH http://www.nato.diplo.de/Vertretung/nato/de/00/00__Aegaeis.html Page 13 2. Martime Migration and European missions

 Operation Sophia is a military operation divided into three parts:

1st: reconnaissance by drones 2nd: 2a) monitor and search/board suspect ships in international waters (started in October 2015)

Source: http://www.eeas.europa.eu/csdp/missions-and- 2b) monitor and search/board suspect operations/eunavfor-med/index_en.htm o a resolution of the UN Security Council ships in foreign territorial waters or an approval of the concerned country 3rd: Scan/search is necessary and currently the in foreign territory international law requirements for 2b. and 3. are not given and these parts have not started yet

IFSH Page 14 4. Policy developments in the EU

European Agenda on Migration (May 2015): 4 principles

1. Reducing the incentives for irregular migration 2. Saving lives and securing external borders 3. A strong common Asylum policy (so far only few areas of asylum policies are commonly regulated, it is up to the sovereign decision of states to decide about it. Dublin III- agreement: the states the refugees first arrives in is responsible) EU-Migration-Agency? 4. A new policy on legal migration (EU-Turkey-Pact)

IFSH Page 15 4. Policy developments in the EU

EU-Turkey Action Plan (closing and opening)  All new irregular migrants crossing from Turkey into Greek islands as from 20 March 2016 will be returned to Turkey  For every Syrian being returned to Turkey from Greek islands, another Syrian will be resettled from Turkey to EU  Turkey will take measures to prevent new sea or land routes for illegal migration opening from Turkey to the EU A ferry heads for Turkey on 4, 2016 in Lesbos, Greece .

In Return: Visa liberalisation for turkish http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2016/04/pictures-greece-sends-refugees-turkey-160404103701640.html citizens in the EU, provide 6 billion euros for Refugee-facility in Turkey HR standards will have to be followed: 1) no deportation to states where the refugees face torture and death; 2) fair and fast individual proceedings; 3) independent appeal board for review of implementation.

IFSH Page 16 Policy developments in the EU 4. Policy developments in the EU

EU-Turkey Action Plan Number of refugees arriving in Greece (per week)

20.03.2016: Beginn of the EU-Turkey Action Plan

Since the EU-Turkey-Action Plan has Home countries of refugees, who have been been implemented (20.03.) there are: deported to Turkey

Newly arrived refugees in Greece Refugees have been deported to Turkey Syrian have been resettled from others Turkey to EU

Spiegel Online: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fluechtlinge-infografik-zu-eu-tuerkei-abkommen-a-1087280.html

IFSH Page 17 4. Policy developments in the EU

Failed redistribution

Comparatively, only small groups of migrants have been relocated: only 900 (of planned 160.00) relocated in March 2016 (349 from Italien und 536 from Griechenland)  relocation from Turkey has started also on a small scale

Reuters

IFSH Page 18 EU-Brazil Cooperation Possible areas of intensified EU-Brazil Cooperation Prepare for shift of the main migration route: support EUNAVFOR MED Sophia (in addition to leading UNIFIL since 2011, overstretch?) Advance negotations around bilateral or multilateral deals granting asylum to refugees who are already in Europe and have not be resettled. Participate in CISE (Common Information Sharing Environment)->MARSUR (->currently designing their surveillance systems, lead to expand to SA?) EUNAVFOR Atalanta (IOR) (Support mission or even fully integrate -> trustbuilding; Use experiences for supportong anti-piracy efforts in the GoG (besides trilateral naval exercises with ZA and IN) Current Hotspot: GoG, IMB: rising numbers of kidnappings; continue support of Interregional Coordination Centre for Maritime Security in the GoG and excercises. Brazil could offer the demanded education on strategic planning and C2 using their expertise with the Namibian Navy.

IFSH THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Page 19 RESERVEFOLIEN

IFSH Page 20 IFSH Page 21 Source: Migration Policy Debates, www.oecd.org/migration, N°7, September 2015

IFSH Page 22 2. Migration routes

 the map shows the most frequent Migration route in 2015 for people from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq

 the route through Turkey had become the main thoroughfare for migrants from Syria (90%) afterwords: in direction southwest to the Aegean Sea and to Greece and Macedonia a small number of refugees from the areas in the south of Syria, such as Lebanon (2%) and Jordan(1%) had been flown to Israel  over the Mediteranean Sea  to Antalya and then to the interior of the country, from there they try to reach Europe by boat over the Aegean Sea

IFSH Page 23 Purpose: „With the efficiently use of all EU instruments embedded in a comprehensive approach, the EU can deal with all risks and threats to its maritime Security, remove the causes and to restore "Good Governance“ – EUMSS,EUMSS S. 9

 Action-Plan to implement the EUMSS, December 2014 Measures: (1) Foreign policy – Coordination and standardization of maritime Governance, especially EU-NATO Coordination (2) surveillance + Information-exchange, (3) Create new abilities, assess special needs, Cyber-Security (4) Risk-management – joint Risk-analysis, standardization of emergency plans (5) Research, joint Education, cooperation of research institutions and agencies, public-private-partnership Review of the Implementation, deadlines to incrementally realization (after 2015) Source: Strategie der Europäischen Union für maritime Sicherheit (EUMSS) - Entwurf eines Aktionsplans, http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-15658-2014-INIT/de/pdf

IFSH – Dr. Patricia Schneider, [email protected] Page 24 Numbers and facts: Germany and EU

EU: First time applicants in 2015 (per million inhabitants):

Ungarn 17.699 Schweden 16.016 Österreich 9.970 Finnland 5.876 Deutschland 5.441 Luxemburg 4.194 Malta 3.948 Dänemark 3.679 Belgien 3.463 Bulgarien 2.800 Niederlande 2.546 Zypern 2.486 EU 2.470 Italien 1.369 Frankreich 1.063 Griechenland 1.047 Irland 707 Ver. Königreich 591 Spanien 314 Polen 270 Estland 172 Lettland 165 Slowenien 126 Tschech. Republik 117 Litauen 93 Portugal 80 Rumänien 62 Slowakei 50 Kroatien 34

Illustration: own presenation, data from Frontex

IFSH Page 25 Policy developments in the EU

Failed redistribution Member States Relocated from Italy Reloacted from 160.000 places left Greece Germany 20 37 27.479 France 41 242 19.431 Spain 18 - 9.255 Poland - - 6.192 Netherlands 50 48 5.849 Romania - 15 4.165 Belgium 24 - 3.788 Sweden 39 - 3.727 Portugal 46 84 2.818 Czech Republic - - 2.691 Austria - - 1.953 …

Illustration: own presenation, data from European Commission

IFSH Page 26 I. Video : The European Refugee Crisis and Syria Explained

Von: In a Nutshell – Kurzgesagt (2015), (6:16 Min.), numbers: a bit outdated: September 2015 German subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvOnXh3NN9w&feature=youtu.be Englisch subtitles: http://amara.org/de/videos/mKiFEHMGRejI/info/the-european-refugee-crisis-and-syria-explained/

IFSH Page 2. Martime Migration and European mission: Frontex Video

FRONTEX Video: Profiting from misery – how smugglers bring people to Europe: https://www.youtube.com/embed/W7OsRz4Ubeg?autoplay=1 http://frontex.europa.eu/

Source:http://frontex.europa.eu/

IFSH – Profile, Activities and Services Seite 28 (Martime) Migration as a Challenge for Germany and Europe

Structure: 1. Numbers and facts: Global migration 2. Maritime Migration and European missions 3. Numbers and facts: Germany and EU 4. Policy developments in the EU 4.1 European Agenda on Migration

Picture: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/europes-border-crisis/migrant-arrivals-sea-nearly-match-1st-half-2015- 4.2 Failed redistribution unhcr-n528701 4.3 Between opening the borders and national isolation 4.4 Refugees as Terrorists? 5. Policy developments in Germany 5.1 New laws and governmental regulations 5.2 Migration: Excessive burden or a chance? 6. Outlook: Further steps?

IFSH Page 29 2. Numbers and Facts: EU

EU: First time asylum-applicants (sorted by share of the total EU-amount 2015) Number of first time asylum- Share of the Asylum applicant applicants total EU- per 1 million amount (in inhabitants %) 2014 2015 Growth (in 2015 2015 %) EU 562.680 1.255.640 +123 100,0 2.470 1)Germany 172.945 441.800 +155 35,2 5.441 2) Hungary 41.215 174.435 +323 13,9 17.699 3) Austria 25.675 85.505 +233 6,8 9.970 4) Italy 63.655 83.245 +31 6,6 1.369 5) France 58.845 70.570 +20 5,6 1.063 6) Netherlands 21.780 43.035 +98 3,4 2.546 7)Belgium 14.045 38.990 +178 3,1 3.463 8) United 31.120 38.370 +19 3,1 591 Kingdom

IFSH Page 30 2. Numbers and Facts: Germany

Asylum-applications in Germany: Top 10 countries of origin of the refugees 2015 Top 10 2014 2015 Compared to previous year (in %) Syrian 39.332 158.657 +303,4 Albania 7.865 53.805 +584,1 Kosovo 6.908 33.427 +383,9 Afghanistan 9.115 31.382 +244,3 Iraq 5.345 29.784 +457,2 Serbia 17.172 16.700 -2,7 Unclear 3.421 11.721 +242,6 Eritrea 13.198 10.876 -17,6 Macedonia 5.614 9.083 +61,8 Pakistan 3.968 8.199 +106,6 Total 173.072 441.899 +155,3

Illustration: own presenation, data from German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees

IFSH Page 31 2. Numbers and Facts: Germany

Asylum-applications in Germany: Top 10 countries of origin of the refugees 2016

IFSH Page 32 2. Numbers and Facts: Germany

 the forecast number of refugees had been raised during two weeks from 450.000 up to 800.000 according to the total number of refugge arrivals the estimation is: 1,255 Mio  just half of the refugges was granted approval of asylum (mainly Syria, Afgahnistan, Irak, Eritrea, partly from Pakistan) the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) published the latest number of arriving migrants in Germany and confirmed: 476.649 Quelle : http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article145402071/Zahl-der-Fluechtlinge-erreicht-Allzeithoch.html Quelle: BAMF, Asylgeschäftsstatistik, Januar 2016 http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Downloads/Infothek/Statistik/Asyl/201601-statistik-anlage-asyl-geschaeftsbericht.html?nn=1694460 asylum applications in 2015 Reasons for the discrepancy: 1.) a delay in the asylum application process 2.) the lack of harmonisation between the different systems leads to double counting/duplication as well miscalulations (missing) of Information counting ; 3.) migrants in transit or migrants who stay but do not apply for asylum because of limited prospects and „disappear“ -> defective registration prosedures in Sept-Dec

IFSH Page 33 4. Policy developments in the EU

4.2 Failed redistribution  Failed relocation of asylum seekers inside the EU Relocation is the transfer of persons who are in need of or already benefit from a form of international protection in one EU Member State to another EU Member State where they would be granted similar protection.-> to unburden “frontal” and transit states.  European Quotas for relocation of asylum seekers :  EU-relocation-scheme initiative (‘‘Refugee-contingent‘‘):  size of the population  gross domestic product  Number of asylum applicants  unemployment rate

IFSH Page 34 4. Policy developments in the EU

Failed redistribution  March 2015: Voluntary approach of relocation of 40.000 refugees – failed  Sept. 2015: ‘’Emergency’’ relocation program of 160.000 refugees from Greece, Hungary and Italy  Legally binding decision  EU-Minister-Council: Qualified majority (Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Romania voted against) -> first time not unanimous decision -> indicator of (ongoing) polarized debates on solidarity and responsibility and protection of national interests/culture  Greece, Italy and Hungary are not participating in the relocation of migrants

Source: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/europaeische-union-einigt-sich-auf-verteilung-von-120-000-fluechtlingen-a- 1054244.html, Date: 04.11.2015

IFSH Page 35 4. Policy developments in the EU

4.3 Between opening the borders and national isolation

Opening-Borders trends:

 Italy and Greece let refugees transit toward central and northern Europe  De-Facto: Suspension of the Dublin- Agreement (Aug: GER, Sept/Okt: all)  First exclusively with respect to Syrian refugees, but later for all Picture: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/fluechtlinge-in-idomeni- nationalities griechenland-erwaegt-evakuierung-a-1081306.html  Refugees can cross borders without sanctions

IFSH Page 36 4. Policy developments in the EU

4.3 Between opening the borders and national isolation

History of isolating policies:  Establishing of the Schengen Agreement (1985)  Strengthening the security of EU external borders  ''feedback loop'' between reinforced border controls and migration

Source: https://mundderwahrheit.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/turkei- syrien-syrische-fluchtlinge-vom-turkischen-grenze-abgewiesen- presstv-14-06-15/, Date: 13.06.2015

IFSH Page 37 4. Policy developments in the EU

Current National isolation:  Temporarily reintroducing at the internal borders -> to compensate for the opening of the external borders and to control the flow  European states closing borders (non-Schengen states): Bulgaria, Rumania und Zyprus; Croatia, Mazedonia und Serbia. Also: border restrictions implemented by Balkan states → creates a ‘’bottleneck’’ in Greece

IFSH Source: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/spanish-police-beat-migrant-unconscious--border-fence-shocking-video-1470405 Page 38 Policy developments in the EU

Temporary reintroduction of border control and border closure at the EU internal borders (2015-2016): Country Restriction

Belgium No (temporary border controls to France)

Denmark No (temporary border controls to Germany) Germany 6.000 Persons per day France Migrants and refugees are not allowed to cross the border Malta No (temporary border controls)

Norway No (temporary border controls at all borders) Austria max. limit 37.500 asylum-seeker per year Sweden No (temporary border controls to Denmark) Slovakia refuses to take muslim refugees Slovenia max. 580 Migrants per day Hungary refuses to take migrants

Illiustration: own presentation, data from European Commission 2016, Deutsche Welle 2015, Spiegel Online 2016, Wiener Zeitung 2015, Die Zeit Online 2015. Date: 08.04.2016

IFSH Page 39 4. Policy developments in the EU Hotspots/register centres: very limited success refugees chould register there and get distributed within the EU; limited success for two reasons: (1) centres offer do not attractive conditions (isolated, mistrusted); (2) no free choice for country of arrival

IFSH Page 40

Source: http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/4834216/Osterreich-bereitet-HotspotEinsatz-in-Griechenland-vor I. Video : UNHCR-Studies: Who are Syrian-Refugees?

From: UNO-Refugee-help (2015), (2:05 Min.), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5bvfdRsylc

IFSH Page 4. Policy developments in the EU

EU-Turkey Action Plan  Implementation of the plan has been slow so far; EU members states and Frontex send humanitarian assisstance and personnel to support Greece  So far: More migrants are arriving in Europe than deported back to Turkey, huge backlog/ high number of person in needs for legal resettlment.  Just 79 Syrian migrants have been resettled legally from Turkey to Europe Unresolved questions: Is Turkey a reliable partner for Europe? Human rights? Deportation to Syria and Iraq?

Source: http://www.balkaneu.com/eu-preparing-mou-turkey-deal-immigration-issue-2/, Date: 07.10.2015 IFSH Page 42 4. Policy developments in the EU

Refugees as Terrorists? Lack of systematic procedures for registration/fingerprinting of newly arrived migrants -> potential crime and terror risk  Threat to the national and international security?! Difficulties in finding out the identity of migrants (missing identification documents) Fear: Terror-organisations, for Picture: http://www.oe24.at/welt/slideshow/Krawalle-in-Fluechtlingslager-von- example DEASH might infiltrate Calais/226194452 refugee flows to enter Europe

IFSH Page 43 4. Policy developments in the EU

Refugees as Terrorists? In most of the cases: Terrorists participating in terroristic attempts in Europe have been raised and lived in a European state as migrant of 2nd or more generations.  Exception: 2 of the Paris-Terrorists (Nov.), who were registered in Greece as refugees; also an accomplice of the latest Brussels attack Return of ''Foreign fighters'‘: mainly have EU passports; register for (re- )entry in the EU as well as intensified cooperation in sec. sector demanded. Preventing radicalisation: “home grown” terrorism. 'Migrant-Ghettos'' → breeding ground for radicalisation IS: do not identify with home state of parents or own, seek for new virtual community and superior identity, attractive subculture, religious arguments as liberators, reject European norms &values Refugee camps targeted for recruitment

IFSH Page 44 5. Policy developments in Germany

5.1 New laws and governmental regulations

 From ''We can do it'' to ''Europe will do it'' (Angela Merkel, Chancellor)  New laws separates migrants into privileged and non-privileged groups

Law to expedite asylum procedure (Sept 2015) :  expedite asylum procedure financial aid

Cicero.de: Link: http://www.cicero.de/berliner-republik/wir-schaffen-das-Warum-Angela-Merkel-die-richtigen-Worte-gefunden%20hat for federal states and local authorities Date: 18.09.2015 by the Bund  Integration- and language courses only for migrants with a high probability to get accepted as asylum seekers to stay in Germany

IFSH Page 45 5. Policy developments in Germany

5.1 New laws and governmental regulations

Asylum-Package II (Jan 2016):  More ‘‘safe countries of origin‘‘: 2015: Albanien, Bosnien und Herzegowina, Ghana, Kosovo, Mazedonien, Montenegro, Senegal, Serbia. 2016: Marocco, Algeria andTunesia  Special registration centers  Restriction of family reunion  Tougher rules for deportation

 Integration-Package:  Security-Package  Integration to the labor market

IFSH Page 46 5. Policy developments in Germany

Migration: Excessive burden or a chance?  Depends on federal/community (ruling party, geographical position…) Refugee-Facility and administration: ‘‘Capacity-problems‘‘ Voluntary initiatives by civil society (NGOs, individual helper) Controversial subjects: shelter, „economic migrants“, crimes, call for sharing the burden with other (EU) states  Beneficial effects of migration:  economic growth  demographic change Adverse effects of migration:  additional costs  poorly educated/ qualified migrants, levels still unclear  polarisation of the society (e.g. rise of right-wing populist parties)

IFSH Page 47 6. Outlook: Next steps?

Outlook Prepare for shift of the main migration route Expand the definition of people who are in need of protection?  ‘‘Existential threat‘‘  Climate Change Need of integration (vs. non-permanent status) Legal -opportunities  Visa-policies Common european asylum system  EU-Migration-Agency? Fight causes of migration  Poverty (more just/humane world economic order?), climate change, armed conflicts (foster peaceful conflict resolution), bad governance THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

IFSH Page 48