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The Future of Commercial Real Estate in Europe a Scenario Approach Brochure / Report Title Goes Here | Section Title Goes Here The future of commercial real estate in Europe A scenario approach Brochure / report title goes here | Section title goes here Content The future of commercial real estate in Europe 04 Scenario: Boooom 05 Scenario: Gotham Country 11 Scenario: Tech-No! Crisis 17 Scenario: Lazy Bone 23 The future of the real estate value chain 30 European cities trend analysis 35 Conclusion & outlook 45 Methodology 47 Sources 49 02 The future of commercial real estate in Europe | A scenario approach The future of commercial real estate in Europe | A scenario approach Introduction Scenario thinking The future of commercial real estate in Europe The European real estate market is in We originally planned to write a study with With the help of these theoretical scenari- Companies and investors in the real estate futures by highlighting the risks and oppor- "Boooom", “Gotham Country”, "Tech-No! motion. Depending on where you look, our views on these developments. How- os, we took a closer look at the most impor- industry generally invest in assets for the tunities of certain strategic issues. In order Crisis", and "Lazy Bone". Within these sce- the market has either fully recovered from ever, without a crystal ball to look into the tant European cities: how far are they along long term. What they decide today will have to evolve robust strategies, it is necessary narios we try to indicate the impacts on the financial crisis or is still in the process future, we felt that the level of insecurity the road to digitization and how has the a major impact in the future – and in many to develop a set of scenarios. These scena- each type of commercial real estate use of recovering. Across the entire European was too high for us to be able to make se- real estate sector performed in the last five cases will make a life or death difference. rios are uniquely heightened stories. Each (office, retail, manufacturing, and logistic investment market, activity in the last quar- rious predictions about the long-term im- years as the world emerges from the finan- However, with the help of traditional analy- scenario models a specific but plausible space) and describe the city of the future ter of 2016 was up by 5 % compared to Q4 pact of disruptive forces or the general cial crisis? Is there a link between attractive ses it is hard to say what the future will world of the future which differs consider- and its real estate value chain. 2015, for a record quarterly transaction economic development of European real yields and the extent of digitization? While bring, since no amount of research can ably from the others. The objective of sce- volume of €86.8 billion. estate markets. this study may serve as a starting point, it remove all the uncertainties affecting the nario design is not to identify future events will be invaluable to see how these factors outcome of a decision over the next de- but rather to emphasize large-scale forces For 2016 as a whole commercial real es- We therefore decided to take a more cre- develop in future. We are therefore plan- cades. It can also take many years to wit- that might move the future in different tate investment amounted to €251.1 bil- ative approach: working with our scenario ning to update this assessment on a regu- ness the consequences of a decision. directions. Scenarios are narratives of lion. This represented a fall of 10 % from experts in Deloitte’s Center for the Long lar basis in order to track the performance Nevertheless, players in the real estate alternative future environments in which 2015, reflecting a lack of attractive invest- View, our expert real estate consultants of the selected cities and link them with industry are expected to make decisions today’s decisions might be played out: ment opportunities. Looking within this looked at the most important drivers of their digitization capabilities. in the face of uncertainty. they are neither predictions nor strategies. figure, only the industrial sector showed a change (social, technical, economic, eco- By making these forces visible, strategic positive trend (+4 % on 2015). By contrast, logical, and political) and came up with four Finally, this discussion paper offers stra- Scenario design is one way to facilitate de- planners in the real estate industry can the retail sector recorded the largest fall scenarios of what the future might look like, tegic guidance for assessing the risks and cision-making in a high uncertainty envi- recognize them and adapt their strategy in investment (-22 % from 2015). All other in, say, 20 years’ time. What will the markets potential of the commercial real estate ronment. While forecasting the future is accordingly. sectors saw single-digit decreases in acti- look like? What will cities look like? And who market. We hope that our reflections and nearly impossible, scenario design aims vity. However, negative developments in will be earning money in real estate? As insights will help investors, project develop- to permit the development of robust stra- In the following chapter we will illustrate the the Brexit-affected UK accounted for the a little teaser, we summed up these four ers, asset, property, and facility managers, tegies that will work in different potential four scenarios that have been derived: overall decline in Europe. Excluding the scenarios in a short video available here: technology companies, and government UK market, investment activity in Europe’s institutions to understand what might be commercial real estate market actually rose expected and how to react to the inevitable by 5 % during 2016. changes. This shows a stable development contin- Please scan QR code to watch the video: uing the overall path of market recovery, but now the next challenges lie ahead. How will digital disruption affect the market? How will Europe cope with demographic developments and with the current political https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= insecurity? k7m5n5QPX3o Low disruption potential High market attractiveness High disruption potential Low market attractiveness 03 04 The future of commercial real estate in Europe | A scenario approach The future of commercial real estate in Europe | A scenario approach The "Boooom" scenario describes a future The basis for real estate’s successful inte- in which new technologies present a high gration of technology has been a general degree of disruptive potential in a broad economic recovery across Europe and a range of industries. In this scenario, howev- buoyant housing market. These drivers er, the real estate sector has overcome the have made real estate a future-oriented challenges of the digital era and is thriving asset class again. on previously unknown technological opportunities. High market attractiveness High market Low disruption potential High disruption potential Scenario: Low market attractiveness Boooom 05 06 The future of commercial real estate in Europe | A scenario approach The future of commercial real estate in Europe | A scenario approach Short term Long term Global economic performance was relative- thorities introduced support programs retail sector and permitted constant ex- The emerging role of technology in the outcome, but also the labor market was ly positive in the years immediately follow- and subsidies for research and develop- cellent returns despite costly investment. real estate environment and the prospect stimulated by huge demand for qualified ing 2017. The real estate sector also benefi- ment activities focusing on the technology Manufacturing and logistics facilities also of additional market share attracted new IT and tech workers, caused by the intense tted from the general upturn and establi- sector. increased in attractiveness as they became players to the market. Europe became the competition. However, the other side of shed players recovered from the post-2008 available to multiple tenants owing to data hotspot for PropTech start-ups challenging the coin was a reduction in low-skilled la- financial crisis. It turned out moreover that These two drivers, low vacancy rates and integration and automation. the established players. While start-ups bor due to the high degree of automation several regions across Europe were able to government promotion of the investment were focusing on niche markets, tech gi- inside buildings. The victory for technology profit from Brexit. In many industries and environment, were the perfect incubator The combination of high-class real estate ants from Asia and the Americas saw their and productivity has therefore caused sectors, companies relocated from the UK for pro¬gressive technology in the real facilities and advanced technology made opportunity to make a successful, large- some social and political problems. to mainland Europe. This provided a boost estate sector. In addition to the increasing manufacturing more efficient, reducing the scale market entry. However, thanks to in particular for office space markets on the volume of investment in real estate, the required space demand. Logistics space strategic investments in the past, the in- From an economic point of view, all the in- mainland, leading to a shortage and result- technological components of the buildings grew in contrast, with the addition of small- cumbents had gathered comprehensive novation and massive investment combin- ing in an increase in prices. However, those also represented an attractive opportunity scale distribution centers in urban areas. experience during prior years and had ed with sharp competition maintained the who had been expecting a downturn in the for capital expenditure. Furthermore, digi- built up a competitive skill set in terms of upswing. Technology became the main driv- real estate market in London were proved tal construction equipment turned out to However, the technology sector was not technology and digitization. This led to a er of real estate markets. The constellation wrong. The gap was immediately filled by be a critical competitive advantage.
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