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How to Identify UK Housing Bubbles a Decision Support Model CHARALAMBOS PITROS

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How to Identify UK Housing Bubbles a Decision Support Model CHARALAMBOS PITROS How To Identify UK Housing Bubbles A Decision Support Model CHARALAMBOS PITROS The School of the Built Environment, University of Salford, UK Submitted for the requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, April 2016 To my grandmother, Theodoula and my father Renos. ii Acknowledgements I am deeply indebted to my supervisor Dr. Yusuf Arayici for his fundamental role in my doctoral work. He offered me with this opportunity to get my research career started and carried me through in these years. Yusuf provided me with every bit of guidance and help that I needed during my research. He also gave me the freedom to think clearly while at the same time continuing to contribute valuable feedback and advice. I quite simply cannot imagine a better supervisor. I would like also to express my appreciation to my family and my Father particularly for their love, support, and sacrifices. Without them, this thesis would never have been written. A special thanks goes to Cyprus state scholarship foundation for providing me with a valuable funding. I dedicate this thesis to my grandmother Theodoula, whose role in my life was, and remains, immense. iii Table of Contents Chapter 1 ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Bubble views ......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Types of bubbles .................................................................................................................................. 7 1.3 What type of bubble the study aims to examine/identify? ........................................................... 8 1.4 Historical bubble events: The real world ......................................................................................... 9 1.5 Significance and intended contribution of the study ................................................................... 10 1.6 Research aim and objectives ............................................................................................................ 11 1.6.1 Aim of the research ................................................................................................................... 11 1.6.2 What kind of model does the study aim to develop? ........................................................... 11 1.6.3 Objectives ................................................................................................................................... 12 1.7 Research Outline ................................................................................................................................ 13 Chapter 2 ................................................................................................................................... 15 2.0 Real Estate Cycle and Housing Market ......................................................................... 15 2.1 Theoretical foundations of property cycles (Part A) .................................................................... 15 2.1.1 The significance of real estate cycles ...................................................................................... 15 2.1.2 The relevance of real estate cycles .......................................................................................... 16 2.1.3 Describing and defining real estate cycles ............................................................................. 16 2.1.4 The phases of cycles .................................................................................................................. 17 2.1.5 Theories of property cycles ...................................................................................................... 18 2.1.6 Cycles and bubbles - their relationship .................................................................................. 21 2.2 Historical analysis of UK housing cycles and the evolution of the UK property market (Part B) ................................................................................................................................................................ 22 2.2.1 The UK property market prior to the Second World War ................................................. 22 2.2.2 The UK property market during wartime and the immediate post-WWII period ......... 23 2.2.3 The UK’s first modern development boom of the 1950s and 1960s ............................... 26 2.2.4 The 1970s Cycle ......................................................................................................................... 28 2.2.5 The 1980s Cycle ......................................................................................................................... 35 2.2.6 The 1990s cycle .......................................................................................................................... 37 2.3 Empirical analysis of UK housing cycles (Part C) ........................................................................ 39 2.3.1 Overview of UK property cycles (literature) ......................................................................... 39 2.3.2 Methodology and Data ............................................................................................................. 40 2.3.3 UK house price empirical cycle ............................................................................................... 42 2.3.4 UK housing affordability empirical cycle .............................................................................. 44 2.3.5 A comparison of UK housing cycles ...................................................................................... 48 2.3.6 Synopsis of the empirical analysis of the UK housing cycles ............................................. 51 Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................................... 53 3.0 Housing Bubbles and the Historical Review ................................................................. 53 3.1 Bubble definitions .............................................................................................................................. 53 3.2 Describing housing bubbles ............................................................................................................. 55 3.3 Historical Examples .......................................................................................................................... 57 3.3.1 Tulip Bubble – 1630s ................................................................................................................ 57 3.3.2 South Sea Bubble – 1720s (1719-1720) .................................................................................. 57 3.3.3 British Railway Bubble – 1840s ............................................................................................... 59 3.3.4 Stock bubble – 1920s ................................................................................................................ 60 3.3.5 Florida Real Estate Bubble – 1920s – ‘‘The Riviera of America’’ ...................................... 61 3.3.6 Dot.Com Bubble – 1997-2000 ................................................................................................ 62 3.3.7 1970s (1971-1973) ..................................................................................................................... 63 3.4 Bubble Views ...................................................................................................................................... 64 3.4.1 Chicago school of economic thought: Bubbles do not exist .............................................. 64 3.4.2 Critiques of the Chicago school and the EMH: Bubbles may exist .................................. 66 3.4.3 Keynesianism and behavioural economics: Bubbles do exist ............................................. 67 3.4.4 Austrian economics: Bubbles do exist ................................................................................... 70 iv 3.5 Bubble concepts ................................................................................................................................. 70 3.6 The expectation and speculation parameter .................................................................................. 71 3.6.1 Expectations ............................................................................................................................... 71 3.6.2 Speculation .................................................................................................................................. 72 3.7 What creates a real estate bubble? ................................................................................................... 75 3.8 Why housing bubbles recur .............................................................................................................. 79 3.8.1 The role of disaster myopia ...................................................................................................... 79 3.8.2 The role of perverse incentives ............................................................................................... 82 3.9 How does a housing bubble end? ................................................................................................... 84 3.10 Why does real estate crashes last so long? ..................................................................................
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