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Daily Summary – 4 January 2017

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Daily Summary – 4 January 2017 DAILY SUMMARY – 4 JANUARY 2017 1. Mosul operations remain heavily focused in the southeast of the city 2. IDP numbers increasing for Mosul 3. Five IEDs reportedly cleared along Highway 2 (Route Cheyenne) in Diyala 4. Downing of Iraqi helicopter due to technical fault southeast of Baiji 5. Vehicle borne IED interdicted while reportedly travelling towards Haditha 6. Prominent reporter Afrah Shawqi safely released after abduction 7. Wasit Police claim significant, albeit questionable, counter-terrorism successes 8. Tribally motivated violence and responses in areas outside Basra City Iraq-wide: On 4 January US officials announced the number of US and Coalition advisors in Iraq has doubled over the last two weeks to approximately 450 personnel as part of the 4,935 US troops currently in the country. The announcement highlights increasing efforts to more closely embed Coalition personnel with command elements directing operations on the ground, thus increasing Iraqi military capabilities. Additional discussion of implications for this announcement will be reported in the Control of Terrain report issued on 5 January. On 4 January Iranian officials denied claims that Tehran and the KRG have agreed to building two pipelines for exporting KRG oil through Iran. Iranian Oil Ministry officials stated that any agreement would need to be negotiated with Baghdad. A visit by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh to Baghdad is slated for next week, with discussions to include export of Kurdish oil through Iran amongst other issues. Any such exportation agreements potentially reached are expected to involve export of Kirkuk oil through Sulaymaniyah and onward though Iran. This would almost assuredly raise the ire of KDP officials and lead to questions of potential PUK-Baghdad-Tehran alliances which could further weaken efforts for Kurdish unity in the north. North: Mosul operations remained heavily focused in the southeast of the city over the review period, with only limited and markedly generic reports of security forces advancing in the northeast of the city, but with no substantial evidence to support these claims. On 4 January CTS elements continued gains within neighborhoods bordering the Mosul-Erbil highway (Route Santa Fe or Highway 2), more firmly controlling the Industrial Zone assessed as officially retaken as of 3 January, and continuing gradual advances in Mithaq neighborhood to the south. On 3 January United Nations Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, cited some 13,000 IDPs have fled Mosul over the last five days since Mosul City operations were officially resumed on 29 December. This figure comprises almost a 50% increase in daily displacements, and while supplies are now reaching civilians in four newly breached neighborhoods thanks to a more “shotgun” style approach to operations in southeastern neighborhoods, the sharp increase in IDP numbers will remain a consideration for aid workers. Most significantly on 4 January, Diyala EOD officials reported having diffused five IEDs emplaced on the Baghdad – Kirkuk Road (Highway 2 or Route Cheyenne) near al-Ghalbiyah, west of Baqubah. The road was closed for approximately one hour as a result, with no casualties reported. While this report remains comparatively vague, the discovery of what appears to be roadside IEDs along the primary commercial route transiting from Kirkuk through Diyala and into Baghdad is a significant development. Thus far threat to commercial or civilian operations along Highway 2 has remained extant, though largely limited to periodic vehicle borne IED interdictions while in transit, and checkpoint-related issues which can have varying degrees of impact. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 5 Central: On 4 January, 7th Iraqi Army Division elements reportedly arrested a suicide bomber driving a vehicle borne IED in the 35 Kilo area west of Ramadi. The vehicle was said to be attempting to travel towards Hit or Haditha according to different statements. This event forms a rare interdiction of a vehicle borne IED without detonation. The specification of intent to conduct the attack in Haditha or Hit as opposed to Ramadi, despite being interdicted in an area west of Ramadi, forms a somewhat abnormal alteration from recent patterns. On 3 January, reporter Afrah Shawqi was released from captivity unharmed after being abducted from her home on 26 December. She initially refrained from identifying the specific perpetrating organization, which is believed to be one of many possible Shi'a militia groups. Widespread speculation indicates Shawqi was released amongst significant political-level pressures. This outcome was very positive given the high proportion of murders affecting journalists in the country. No arrests have been made up to this point, and are somewhat unlikely if her release formed a political-level negotiated settlement. On 3 January, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claimed political opponents were disseminating false reports of attacks in the capital in order to undermine him. Abadi denounced these efforts, and media outlets propagating them, and their effects on spreading fear amongst the local populace. Abadi specifically discussed the bombings on 2 January, and a lack of martyrs associated with the smaller detonations noted with those events. The Prime Minister also announced high crime rates in the province in recent weeks including recent kidnappings, stating such events stress the shortage of security personnel during the Mosul campaign. Although IS attack networks in Baghdad have been recently forced to favor employing a high proportion of low-sophistication vehicle borne IEDs, which often generate moderate casualties, overall casualty levels for explosive attack events in the capital are routinely underreported in official accounts. Through this statement, it is assessed Abadi is attempting to downplay recent IS attack efforts in the capital, shift blame to political opposition, and potentially attempt to adjust the behaviors of various media organizations. South: Tribally motivated violence and responses were noted in areas outside Basra City on 4 January. Four gunmen armed with AK-47s opened fire against an individual employed as a policeman due to a dispute involving members of the same tribe in an area of Zubayr. The individual sustained six gunshot wounds, but reportedly survived. In another event, security forces arrested three individuals involved in a recent tribal clash between members of one tribe in Qurna, including a 35-year-old policeman. On the morning of 4 January, Wasit Chief of Police Maj. Gen. Qasim Rashid claimed his forces conducted security operations in different areas of Wasit based on information indicating IS was planning to conduct vehicle borne IED attacks in the province. Police confiscated 10 vehicles that they stated IS intended to later rig as vehicle borne IEDs, and arrested the owners, with investigations being CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 5 conducted. Heightened security postures went into effect across the province in accordance with these events. Covert IS construction of a large number of vehicle borne IEDs within a predominately Shi’a province of the Southern Region is assessed to be highly unlikely, and largely unprecedented. In accordance with these and other factors, it is currently assessed that these claims are largely embellished, and potentially represented efforts by key security officials to enhance their achievements. Unless additional reporting supporting the veracity of these claims is seen, these operations at most potentially represented the detainment of suspected local IS supporters for questioning, with these arrests tied to questionable threat reporting of vehicle borne IED-related attack intent. International: Kurdistan oil flow to Turkey exceeds agreements, Iraqi PM Abadi says – Ekurd The export of crude oil by Kurdistan to Turkey’s Ceyhan port exceeds the amount that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad agreed upon, Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi said on Tuesday. “The region is exporting more than its share, more than the 17 percent stated in the budget,” Abadi said. Canadian volunteer killed fighting Islamic State alongside Syrian Kurds – Ekurd Syrian Kurdistan,— A Canadian volunteer with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), Nazzareno Antonio Tassone, was killed in operation to retake the city of Raqqa from the Islamic State (IS) group, the YPG said in a statement on Tuesday. “Canadian YPG volunteer Nazzareno Antonio Tassone lost his life during clashes against IS [Islamic State] terrorists in the Raqqa campaign,” an English translation of the statement said. Tassone left Edmonton for Syria in June, according to reports. Syria: Turkey takes fight to Isis in assault on western base of al-Bab – Guardian Turkey has said the operation to retake from Islamic State the Syrian town of al-Bab, the terror group’s westernmost stronghold, will be “finished soon” after launching the most intensive bombardment of the four-month campaign in the days after the Istanbul nightclub attack. Turkey has identified Reina nightclub attacker: FM – Al Jazeera The identity of the gunman who killed 39 people in the New Year's attack on an Istanbul nightclub has been established, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said in a televised interview. The gunman, who fled after the attack, remains at large. Turkey extends emergency rule to maintain purge of Gulen supporters: deputy PM – Reuters Turkey's parliament voted overnight to extend emergency rule
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