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Final Consolidated Document, 2018

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Final Consolidated Document, 2018 Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme in Iraq (UN-HABITAT) 2018 All rights reserved United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) www.unhabitat.org DISCLAIMER The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any county, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries regarding its economic system or degree of development. Excerpts may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme, the United Nations and its member states. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS UN-Habitat Iraq thanks the European Union for its support and interest in the conservation of urban heritage and the implementation of the New Urban Agenda in Iraq. This report was developed under the Local Area Development Programme (LADP-EU) by Dr. Mona Serageldin, Vice President of the Institute for International Urban Development (I2UD) and her team: Tariq Waly, Barbara Sumer, Daniel Tsai, Alejandra Mortarini, Johann Friedl, with the support of UN- Habitat team: Anna Soave, Saad Mahdi, Haitham Oabid, Bozhan Hawizy, Sara Mahmood, Rania Kamal, Ishaku Maitumbi. Finally, UN-Habitat acknowledges the firm support of the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, namely H.E. Dr Maher Johan, Deputy Minister; Dr Mohammed Muhsin Al Sayed, Dr Sawsan Jabbar Ibraheem, Aseel Mahdi Rathi, Zuhair Rasheed Abbas, Ebtisam Mohsen Hameed, Jabbar Juma Laibi, Bassam Siham, Kareem, Osama Neza Abdul Rahman and Governorates Planning directors. Graphic design by Bozhan Hawizy Cover page: Baghdad © United States Department of Defense Table of Contents Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1 Section 1: Platform Description ................................................................................................................... 3 Section 2: Population Projections & Distribution ....................................................................................... 7 2.1 Fertility Rates ...................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Mortality Rates.................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Migration ............................................................................................................................................. 9 2.4 Revised Population Projections ........................................................................................................ 10 2.5 Urban Population .............................................................................................................................. 12 2.6 Recent Population Movements ........................................................................................................ 13 Internally Displaced Persons ............................................................................................................... 13 Syrian Refugees in Iraq ........................................................................................................................ 15 Iraqi Migrants and Refugees ............................................................................................................... 15 2.7 Governorate population projections 2010-2030 .............................................................................. 16 Establishing a base year 2015 population .......................................................................................... 16 Impact of IDP movements................................................................................................................... 17 Projection Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 19 Section 3 Economic Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 21 3.1 Governorate GDP Computation Methodology ................................................................................. 22 3.2 Importance of economic analysis to the formulation and implementation of national and governorate urban strategies ................................................................................................................. 24 3.3 Overview of the context in growth and employment as it affects subnational GDP ....................... 25 3.4 Value Added per Worker .................................................................................................................. 26 3.6 Economic Performance and Growth Prospects ................................................................................ 28 3.7 A general perspective on GDP and Employment in the Governorates............................................. 30 3.7.1 The Greater Baghdad Metropolitan Area .................................................................................. 33 3.7.2 The Southern Anchor Zone: Basrah & Muthanna ...................................................................... 34 3.7.3 Northern Oil Producing Cluster: Salah al Deen, Kirkuk, Ninevah ............................................... 35 3.7.4 The Kurdistan Regional Government Area: Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah ................................... 38 3.7.5 The Basrah/Baghdad Corridor: Thi-Qar, Qadissiya, & Babylon ................................................. 41 3.7.6 The Eastern Corridor: Misan, Wasit, & Diyala............................................................................ 44 3.7.7 The Pilgrimage Centers: Kerbela & Najaf ................................................................................... 46 3.7.8 Desert Zone: Anbar .................................................................................................................... 48 3.8 Concluding Remarks .......................................................................................................................... 51 Section 4: Infrastructure System and Resource Management 4.1 Climate Change ..................................................................................................................................... 52 4.2 Access to Potable Water Supply ........................................................................................................... 54 4.3 Energy ................................................................................................................................................... 56 4.4 Roads and Transport ............................................................................................................................. 59 4.5 Infrastructure Improvement Projects ................................................................................................... 63 4.6 Deprivation and Poverty ....................................................................................................................... 64 4.7 Estimating Deprivation Levels ............................................................................................................... 65 Section 5: National Urban Strategy Framework Conceptual Approach 5.0 National Urban Strategy Framework Conceptual Approach ................................................................ 68 5.0.1 Urban Development Patterns .................................................................................................... 69 5.1 Development Corridors ..................................................................................................................... 77 5.2 Development Clusters ....................................................................................................................... 78 5.2.1 Kurdistan Region Clusters .......................................................................................................... 79 5.2.2 Development Clusters Integrating Water Resource Management ........................................... 81 5.2.3 Development Clusters Integrating Agriculture .......................................................................... 84 5.2.4 Oil Based Development Clusters ................................................................................................ 86 5.2.4 Pilgrimage Cities Cluster ............................................................................................................ 88 5.3 Looking to 2030 ................................................................................................................................. 92 References .................................................................................................................................................. 93 Statistical Annex .......................................................................................................................................... 95 In fond remembrance of Dr. Mona Serageldin 1938 – 2018 Dr. Mona Serageldin was the Vice President of the Institute for International Urban Development (I2UD) based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. She obtained a BSc in Architecture from Cairo University, Faculty of Engineering. She later obtained a MSc degree in Urban Planning and a PhD in Urban and Regional Planning from Harvard University. She retired from the position
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