Traditional Knowledge and Local Institutions Support Adaptation to Water-Induced Hazards in AGA KHAN RURAL SUPPORT PROGRAM Chitral, Pakistan (A Project of Aga Khan Foundation) Executive summary The central objective of the research project ‘Documenting and Assessing Adaptation Strategies to Too Much, Too Little Water’ is to document adaptation strategies at local or community level to constraints and hazards related to water and induced by climate change in the Himalayan region, including how people are affected by water stress and hazards, their local short and long-term responses, and the extent to which these strategies reduce vulnerability to water stress and hazards. Five case studies were carried out in four countries. The results of each have been summarised in separate documents on a CD-ROM to accompany a single synthesis document. The Pakistan case study presented here documents and assesses people’s responses to fl ash fl oods and water stresses in two union councils respectively, Shishikoh and Mulkhow, in Chitral district, North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Flash fl oods happen frequently in Shishikoh, whereas in Mulkhow dry weather prevails for most of the year. Data collection methods included focus group discussions, key informant interviews and direct observations. The livelihoods in both Mulkhow and Shishikoh depend heavily on natural resources. Due to remote location and limited development interventions, opportunities for diversifying livelihoods are almost negligible and this makes them extremely vulnerable to the impacts of water stresses and fl oods. Climate-induced hazards such as fl ash fl oods and water scarcity have had negative impacts on the livelihoods of the inhabitants. The agricultural sector has been severely affected with loss of productive land due to fl ash fl oods, poor productivity, and crop failure as the main impacts that lead to food insecurity in both study areas. Depletion of water resources, mainly springs, is a continued threat to the agricultural sector in Mulkhow. Other impacts of climate-induced hazards documented in the study areas include the loss of livestock and the high transportation costs and increased prices of consumer goods following fl ash fl ood events, health issues due to shortage of water for domestic use, and increased vulnerability of children and women. In the absence of a modern early warning system, the communities rely on indigenous knowledge to predict fl oods and droughts through careful monitoring of local environmental signals (e.g., cloud density and movement over the mountains, the smell of clay and pines, unusual animal noises and behaviour). In Shishikoh, due to the increasing rate of fl ash fl oods, residents are leaving the plains and building houses on slopes. In Mulkhow, a key adaptation strategy is a traditional system of water management. This system is based on a traditional social network (‘gram’) which manages the water distribution and the maintenance and repair of irrigation infrastructures. Other strategies to deal with water stresses include the borrowing or swapping of water, small-scale diversifi cation of crops, and contract farming. People also manage to minimise the negative impacts of climate related hazards on their livestock through the traditional system of lending or borrowing animals, internal arrangements for grazing pastures, and livestock diversifi cation. Micro-credit and migration are common practices in both study areas. An ancient system of intra-rural migration was also recorded in Mulkhow where, due to the shortage of water, increasing temperatures, and availability of fodder in alpine pastures, residents move their families to higher elevations. Diversifi cation of livelihoods (through pine-nut collection and employment in the education department and security agencies) also occurs, but on a very small scale. The economic status of households, strong social networks, predefi ned resource user rights, interventions of NGOs, and indigenous knowledge and systems were identifi ed as factors enabling successful adaptation. Alternatively, poverty, isolation, inaccessibility, the scale of hazards, limited livelihood diversifi cation opportunities, resistance to assistance from NGOs, lack of knowledge, poor social networks, and lack of policies and governance were identifi ed as critical constraining factors. Adaptation to Water-Induced Hazards in Chitral, Pakistan Traditional Knowledge and Local Institutions Support Adaptation to Water- Induced Hazards in Chitral, Pakistan Shahid Nadeem, Imran Elahi, Abdul Hadi, Ihsan Uddin, Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Chitral, Pakistan Contents Introduction 1 Research approach and methods 2 Impacts of water stress and hazards on livelihoods 6 Responses to water stress and hazards 21 Factors infl uencing local adaptation 36 Conclusion and way forward 38 Bibliography 43 Acronyms and abbreviations, Local terms 44 Annex 47 Introduction For the mountain communities of Asia, particularly the inhabitants of mountain catchments in the greater Himalayan region, climate change has brought about striking changes in their livelihoods. As a matter of course these communities, intentionally or unintentionally, adapt to these variations. Scenarios involving ‘Too Much, Too Little Water’ are the most prominent. In the latter scenario, water sources are drying up, and in the former large swathes of land are rendered uninhabitable and uncultivable by increasing frequency and intensity of fl ash fl oods. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), as part of a project on ‘Too Much, Too Little Water’ funded by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) carried out a study entitled ‘Assessing Adaptation Strategies to Climate-Induced Water Stresses and Hazards’. This study is also contributing to a feasibility study funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for a Himalayan Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment (HICIA). The Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and GRID ADRENAL are coordinating institutions. These activities are important components in ICIMOD’s strategic programme on Integrated Water and Hazards Management. The Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP), a project of the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), has been working in poverty reduction through participatory social development of the mountain communities of northern Pakistan since 1982. Recently, AKRSP implemented projects for disaster preparedness and management with the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) and is a partner with ICIMOD in this study. This report aims to identify and assess adaptation strategies to climate-induced water stresses in Mulkhow and water hazards in Shishikoh Union Councils. Research methods and approaches, concepts and assumptions, and justifi cation for selection of the study sites and their descriptions are presented in the second chapter. 1 Adaptation to Water-Induced Hazards in Chitral, Pakistan The third chapter describes the general characteristics of the selected areas, patterns of change, and impacts of water stresses and hazards. The fourth chapter deals with people’s responses to water stresses and hazards, and, in the fi fth chapter, factors infl uencing the adaptive capacity of the people are discussed. In the sixth chapter, communities’ adaptation strategies have been assessed and evaluated in the context of ideal situations and best practices globally. The overall aim of the study is to understand how people in the HKH region respond to water stress and hazards in the face of climate variability and change. The objectives are as follows. (1) To assess the impacts of water stress and hazards on livelihoods (2) To assess local responses to water stresses and hazards (3) To provide recommendations for adaptation to future climate change. The overarching question that the fi eld teams are seeking to answer is how do people in the HKH region respond to water stress and related hazards in the context of climate variability and change? This question is approached in selected sites by examining the following. (1) How are people affected by water stress and hazards? (2) What are the local short and long-term responses? (3) To what extent can these strategies reduce vulnerability to water stress and hazards? Research approach and methods Team profi le The profi le of the study team is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Profi le of the study team S. Team Member Academic Background Professional Background Ethnicity Gender Role in research No team 1 Shahid Nadeem MSc. in Sustainable Development (UK) Monitoring & Evaluation Local Male Team leader MSc. Agriculture (Rural Development) 2 Abdul Hadi Masters in Public Administration Monitoring & Evaluation Local Male Team member 3 Ihsan Uddin MA in Social Anthropology Monitoring & Evaluation Local Male Team member Diploma in Local Government Social Mobilisation 4 Imran Elahi MSc. In Geography Monitoring & Evaluation Local Male Team member Diploma in GIS & Remote Sensing 5 Munira Sultana B.A Social Mobilisation Local Female Part time team Data collection member Concepts The is no local word for vulnerability; however, the closest phrase describing this concept in the Khowar language is ‘khakavesik’, and this term embraces a level of insecurity for people, their moveable and immoveable assets, and their environment from water stress and hazards. By inference it also covers the inadequacy of options or abilities available for people to protect themselves against possible