Birds and Climate Change National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior
Grand Canyon National Park
Background Birds are useful indicators of ecological change because they are highly mobile and generally conspicuous. As climate in a particular place changes, suitability may worsen for some species and improve for others. These changes in climate may create the potential for local extirpation or new colonization. This brief summarizes projected changes in climate suitability by mid- century for birds at Grand Canyon National Park (hereafter, the Park) under two climate change scenarios (see Wu et al. 2018 for full results, and Langham et al. 2015 for more information regarding how climate suitability is characterized). The high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5) represents a future in which little action is taken to reduce We report trends in climate suitability for all species global emissions of greenhouse gases. The low-emissions identified as currently present at the Park based on both pathway (RCP2.6) is a best-case scenario of aggressive NPS Inventory & Monitoring Program data and eBird efforts to reduce emissions. These emissions pathways are observation data (2016), plus those species for which globally standardized and established by the climate at the Park is projected to become suitable in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for projecting future (Figure 1 & Table 1). This brief provides park- future climate change. The findings below are model-based specific projections whereas Wu et al. (2018), which did projections of how species distributions may change in not incorporate park-specific species data and thus may response to climate change. A 10-km buffer was applied to differ from this brief, provides system-wide comparison each park to match the spatial resolution of the species and conclusions. distribution models (10 x 10 km), and climate suitability was taken as the average of all cells encompassed by the park and buffer. Results Climate change is expected to alter the bird community at the Park, with greater impacts under the high-emissions pathway than under the low-emissions pathway (Figure 1). Among the species likely to be found at the Park today, climate suitability in summer under the high-emissions pathway is projected to improve for 29, remain stable for 36 (e.g., Figure 2), and worsen for 19 species. Suitable climate ceases to occur for 46 species in summer, potentially resulting in extirpation of those species from the Park. Climate is projected to become suitable in summer for 17 species not found at the Park today, potentially resulting in local colonization. Climate suitability in winter under the high-emissions pathway is projected to improve for 43, remain stable for 30, and worsen for 22 species. Suitable climate ceases to occur for 16 species in winter, potentially resulting in extirpation from the Park. Climate is projected to become suitable in winter for 36 species not found at the Park today, potentially resulting in local colonization. Figure 1. Projected changes in climate suitability for birds at the Park, by emissions pathway and season.
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 1 of 7 Results (continued) Potential Turnover Index climate-sensitive species, 11 might be extirpated from the Potential bird species turnover for the Park Park in at least one season by 2050. between the present and 2050 is 0.22 in summer (35th percentile across all national parks) and 0.17 in winter (22nd percentile) under the high- emissions pathway. Potential species turnover declines to 0.15 in summer and 0.10 in winter under the low-emissions pathway. Turnover index was calculated based on the theoretical proportions of potential extirpations and potential colonizations by 2050 relative to today (as reported in Wu et al. 2018), and therefore assumes that all potential extirpations and colonizations are realized. According to this index, no change would be represented as 0, whereas a complete change in the bird community would be represented as 1.
Climate Sensitive Species The Park is or may become home to 22 species that are Figure 2. Climate at the Park in summer is projected to highly sensitive to climate change across their range (i.e., remain suitable for the Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) they are projected to lose climate suitability in over 50% of through 2050. Photo by KS Black/Flickr (Public Domain). their current range in North America in summer and/or winter by 2050; Table 1; Langham et al. 2015). While the Park may serve as an important refuge for 11 of these Management Implications Parks differ in potential colonization and extirpation rates, improve habitat connectivity for birds across boundaries, and therefore different climate change adaptation managing the disturbance regime, and possibly more strategies may apply. Under the high-emissions intensive management actions. Furthermore, park pathway, Grand Canyon National Park falls within managers have an opportunity to focus on supporting the the high potential extirpation group. Parks 11 species that are highly sensitive to climate change across anticipating high potential extirpation can focus on actions their range (Table 1; Langham et al. 2015) but for which that increase species' ability to respond to environmental the park is a potential refuge. Monitoring to identify change, such as increasing the amount of potential habitat, changes in bird communities will inform the selection of working with cooperating agencies and landowners to appropriate management responses. Caveats The species distribution models included in this study are that affect demography, biotic interactions that inhibit and based solely on climate variables (i.e., a combination of facilitate species' colonization or extirpation, dispersal annual and seasonal measures of temperature and capacity, species' evolutionary adaptive capacity, and precipitation), which means there are limits on their phenotypic plasticity (e.g., behavioral adjustments). interpretation. Significant changes in climate suitability, as Ultimately, models can tell us where to focus our concern measured here, will not always result in a species response, and which species are most likely to be affected, but and all projections should be interpreted as potential monitoring is the only way to validate these projections and trends. Multiple other factors mediate responses to climate should inform any on-the-ground conservation action. change, including habitat availability, ecological processes
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 2 of 7 More Information For more information, including details on the methods, Wu et al. (2018) Projected avifaunal responses to climate please see the scientific publication (Wu et al. 2018) and change across the U.S. National Park System. PLOS ONE. the project overview brief, and visit the NPS Climate Change Response Program website. Contacts Gregor Schuurman, Ph.D. References Ecologist, NPS Climate Change Response Program eBird Basic Dataset (2016) Version: ebd_relAug-2016. 970-267-7211, [email protected] Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, New York. Joanna Wu Langham et al. (2015) Conservation Status of North Biologist, National Audubon Society American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change. 415-644-4610, [email protected] PLOS ONE.
Species Projections Table 1. Climate suitability projections by 2050 under the high-emissions pathway for all birds currently present at the Park based on both NPS Inventory & Monitoring Program data and eBird observation data, plus those species for which climate at the Park is projected to become suitable in the future. "Potential colonization" indicates that climate is projected to become suitable for the species, whereas "potential extirpation" indicates that climate is suitable today but projected to become unsuitable. Omitted species were either not modeled due to data deficiency or were absent from the I&M and eBird datasets. Observations of late-season migrants may result in these species appearing as present in the park when they may only migrate through. Species are ordered according to taxonomic groups, denoted by alternating background shading. * Species in top and bottom 10th percentile of absolute change ^ Species that are highly climate sensitive - Species not found or found only occasionally, and not projected to colonize by 2050 x Species not modeled in this season Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend
Potential Common Merganser x Worsening Cackling/Canada Goose - extirpation Ruddy Duck - Improving Potential Gadwall Stable extirpation^ Gambel's Quail Improving* Improving
American Wigeon - Stable Chukar Stable -
Potential Wild Turkey x Stable Mallard Stable extirpation^ Potential Least Grebe - Potential colonization Blue-winged Teal - colonization Pied-billed Grebe - Improving Potential Northern Shoveler Stable Clark's Grebe x Stable extirpation^ Potential Green-winged Teal - Stable Wood Stork - colonization Canvasback - Improving Potential Neotropic Cormorant - Ring-necked Duck - Improving colonization
^ Potential Greater Scaup - Stable Double-crested Cormorant x extirpation Lesser Scaup - Stable Potential Anhinga - Long-tailed Duck - Stable colonization^
Bufflehead - Improving Potential Least Bittern - colonization Common Goldeneye - Worsening Great Blue Heron Stable Improving Barrow's Goldeneye - Stable^
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 3 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend
Potential colonization Great Egret - colonization Spotted Sandpiper x Improving Potential Snowy Egret x Potential colonization Long-billed Curlew - colonization Potential Cattle Egret - Potential colonization Stilt Sandpiper - colonization Potential Green Heron - Potential colonization Wilson's Phalarope - extirpation^ Potential Roseate Spoonbill - colonization Ring-billed Gull - Stable
Potential Potential White-tailed Kite - Yellow-footed Gull - colonization colonization Potential Golden Eagle x Worsening* Rock Pigeon Stable extirpation Potential Northern Harrier Stable extirpation^ Band-tailed Pigeon Stable -
Sharp-shinned Hawk x Worsening Eurasian Collared-Dove x Improving
Cooper's Hawk x Improving White-winged Dove Improving* -
Potential Mourning Dove Stable Improving Northern Goshawk x extirpation Potential Inca Dove - Potential colonization Bald Eagle - extirpation Potential Common Ground-Dove - Potential colonization Harris's Hawk - colonization Potential White-tipped Dove - Potential colonization White-tailed Hawk - colonization Greater Roadrunner Improving* Improving* Potential Gray Hawk - Western Screech-Owl x Worsening colonization Great Horned Owl x Worsening Swainson's Hawk Improving*^ - Northern Pygmy-Owl x Worsening Red-tailed Hawk Stable Improving Lesser Nighthawk Improving* - Ferruginous Hawk Worsening^ - Common Nighthawk Stable - Potential Clapper Rail - colonization Black-chinned Hummingbird Stable -
Potential Potential Common Gallinule - Anna's Hummingbird Stable colonization colonization
American Coot x Stable Potential Costa's Hummingbird Improving colonization Potential Limpkin - colonization Potential Broad-tailed Hummingbird x extirpation Potential American Avocet - colonization^ Rufous Hummingbird Stable -
Killdeer Stable Improving Potential Buff-bellied Hummingbird - colonization Mountain Plover Potential -
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 4 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend
Belted Kingfisher - Worsening colonization
Lewis's Woodpecker x Stable Loggerhead Shrike Improving* Improving
Acorn Woodpecker Stable Stable Bell's Vireo Improving -
Potential Potential Gila Woodpecker - Hutton's Vireo Stable^ colonization colonization
Potential Potential Golden-fronted Woodpecker - Warbling Vireo - colonization extirpation
Potential Pinyon Jay Worsening* Worsening* Red-naped Sapsucker Improving* extirpation^ Potential Steller's Jay Worsening* Ladder-backed Woodpecker Improving* Improving* extirpation
Potential California/Woodhouse's Downy Woodpecker Stable Stable Worsening* extirpation Scrub-Jay (Western Scrub-Jay)
Potential Potential Potential Hairy Woodpecker Clark's Nutcracker ^ Worsening extirpation extirpation extirpation
Potential Potential Potential Northern Flicker Worsening American Crow extirpation extirpation extirpation Potential Potential American Kestrel x Improving Common Raven extirpation extirpation Merlin - Stable^ Potential Horned Lark Worsening Peregrine Falcon x Improving extirpation
Potential Northern Rough-winged Potential Olive-sided Flycatcher - Improving extirpation Swallow colonization
Potential Purple Martin Improving - Western Wood-Pewee - extirpation^ Potential Tree Swallow - Willow Flycatcher Stable - extirpation
Hammond's Flycatcher - Improving Violet-green Swallow Worsening* -
Potential Barn Swallow Stable - Gray Flycatcher Worsening colonization Cliff Swallow Stable - Potential Dusky Flycatcher Worsening Potential colonization Cave Swallow - colonization Cordilleran Flycatcher Worsening - Potential Mountain Chickadee Worsening* Black Phoebe Improving Improving* extirpation
Say's Phoebe Worsening Improving Juniper Titmouse Worsening Worsening
Potential Bushtit Worsening Worsening* Vermilion Flycatcher - colonization Potential Potential Red-breasted Nuthatch Ash-throated Flycatcher Improving* - extirpation extirpation
Brown-crested Flycatcher Improving* - White-breasted Nuthatch Stable Stable
Cassin's Kingbird Stable - Pygmy Nuthatch Worsening Worsening^
Western Kingbird Stable - Potential Brown Creeper Stable extirpation^ Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Potential -
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 5 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend
Rock Wren Worsening Improving extirpation
Canyon Wren x Stable Common Yellowthroat Stable -
Potential Potential House Wren Improving Yellow Warbler - extirpation extirpation
Marsh Wren x Stable Yellow-rumped Warbler Stable Improving
Bewick's Wren Stable Stable Grace's Warbler Stable -
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Stable Improving* Potential Potential Black-throated Gray Warbler extirpation colonization Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Improving* - Townsend's Warbler Stable - Potential American Dipper x extirpation Potential Wilson's Warbler - extirpation Potential Golden-crowned Kinglet Stable extirpation Red-faced Warbler Stable -
Potential Yellow-breasted Chat Improving - Ruby-crowned Kinglet Improving extirpation Green-tailed Towhee Worsening^ Improving Western Bluebird Worsening Stable Spotted Towhee Worsening* x Potential Mountain Bluebird Worsening extirpation Rufous-crowned Sparrow x Stable
Potential Canyon Towhee Improving Improving* Townsend's Solitaire Worsening* extirpation^ Potential Abert's Towhee - Potential colonization Hermit Thrush Improving extirpation Potential Rufous-winged Sparrow - Potential Potential colonization American Robin extirpation extirpation Potential Cassin's Sparrow - Potential colonization Long-billed Thrasher - colonization Potential Chipping Sparrow Improving* Crissal Thrasher Improving - extirpation
Potential Potential Sage Thrasher - Brewer's Sparrow Improving* extirpation extirpation Potential Northern Mockingbird Improving Improving* Vesper Sparrow - extirpation European Starling Stable Stable Potential Lark Sparrow Worsening* American Pipit - Improving* colonization
Potential Black-throated Sparrow Stable Improving* Sprague's Pipit - colonization Sagebrush/Bell's Sparrow Worsening^ Stable Potential (Sage Sparrow) Cedar Waxwing - extirpation Potential Henslow's Sparrow - Phainopepla Improving Improving* colonization
Potential Potential Orange-crowned Warbler Improving* Song Sparrow Stable extirpation extirpation
Lucy's Warbler Improving - Lincoln's Sparrow - Improving
MacGillivray's Warbler Potential - White-crowned Sparrow Stable Improving
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 6 of 7 Summer Winter Summer Winter Common Name Common Name Trend Trend Trend Trend
Dark-eyed Junco x Worsening Potential Potential Bronzed Cowbird colonization colonization Hepatic Tanager Stable - Brown-headed Cowbird Improving - Summer Tanager Improving - Hooded Oriole Improving - Potential Western Tanager - extirpation Bullock's Oriole Improving* -
Rose-breasted Grosbeak Stable - Potential Altamira Oriole - colonization Black-headed Grosbeak Worsening* - Scott's Oriole Stable - Blue Grosbeak Improving* - House Finch Improving Improving Lazuli Bunting Worsening - Potential Potential Cassin's Finch Worsening Indigo Bunting Stable extirpation colonization Potential Potential Red Crossbill ^ x Painted Bunting - extirpation colonization Potential Potential Pine Siskin Red-winged Blackbird Stable Improving extirpation extirpation Potential Potential Eastern Meadowlark Lesser Goldfinch Improving Improving colonization colonization Potential Potential American Goldfinch Western Meadowlark Worsening* Stable extirpation extirpation
Potential Potential Potential Brewer's Blackbird Stable Evening Grosbeak extirpation extirpation extirpation
Great-tailed Grackle Improving* Improving* Potential House Sparrow x extirpation
Birds and Climate Change: Grand Canyon National Park | Page 7 of 7