An Analysis and Evaluation of Methods Currently Used to Quantify the Likelihood of Existential Hazards
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LUNAR INTERACTIONS ABSTRACTS of PAPERS PRESENTED at the CONFERENCE on INTERACTIONS of the INTERPLANETARY PLASMA with the MODERN and ANCIENT MOON
LUNAR INTERACTIONS ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE ON INTERACTIONS OF THE INTERPLANETARY PLASMA with the MODERN AND ANCIENT MOON ORGANIZED BY THE I. N 3 LUNAR SCIENCE INSTITUTE m I 3 AND THE I- 2 SPACE PHYSICS DEPARTMENT RICE UNIVERSITY sponsored by the NATIONAL AERONAUTICS m m AND 0 .. I-( OIW mrl SPACE ADMINISTRATION ZX CV OH IOI H WclU AND THE uux- V&H 0 NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION g,,,, wm. WWO@W u u ? ZZLOX€e HW5H vlOHU ffiMHrnfC 4 ffi H 2.~4~4a Edited by 3 dz ,.aV)ffiuJO ffiwcstn WPt.4" DAVID R. CRISWELL ,!a !a Pl r 4 W Pa4 %- rn ZW. and Or=4OcC+J fO Hi4 r WWF I rnU2.M ffiBZ* JOHN W. FREEMAN UUW4aJ I amor 0 alffiwffi E REPRODUCTION RESTRICTIONS OVERRIDDEN 2Z~OZ E 2 2 .: u Bmscientific ma Technical Information FaciLitX -eu $4 to) Copyright O 1974 by the Lunar Science Institute Conference held at George Williams College Lake Geneva Campus Williams Bay, Wisconsin 30 September - 4 October 1974 Compiled by and available from The Lunar Science Institute 3303 Nasa Road 1 Houston, Texas 77058 PREFACE The field of lunar science has essentially completed a period of exponential growth promoted by the national efforts of the 1960's to land on the moon. As normally happens in a diverse scientific community, the interpretations of specialized lunar data have reflected the precepts in the various specialized fields. Constant promotion of the broadest overviews between these diverse fields is appropriate to identify processes or phenomenon recog- nized in one avenue of investigation which may have great importance in explaining the data of other specialities. -
Estimating Remaining Lifetime of Humanity Abstract 1. Introduction
Estimating remaining lifetime of humanity Yigal Gurevich [email protected] Abstract In this paper, we estimate the remaining time for human existence, applying the Doomsday argument and the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption to the reference class consisting of all members of the Homo sapiens, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the theory of parameter estimation and available paleodemographic data. The remaining lifetime estimate is found to be 170 years, and the probability of extinction in the coming year is estimated as 0.43%. 1. Introduction Modern humans, Homo sapiens, exist according to available data for at least 130,000 years [4], [5]. It is interesting, however, to estimate the time remaining for the survival of humanity. To determine this value there was proposed the so-called doomsday argument [1] - probabilistic reasoning that predicts the future of the human species, given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. This method was first proposed by Brandon Carter in 1983 [2]. Nick Bostrom modified the method by formulating the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA): each observer-moment should reason as if it were randomly selected from the class of all observer-moments in its reference class. [3]. In this paper, we apply the SSSA method to the reference class consisting of all members of our species, formulating calculations in traditional demographic terms of population and time, using the parameter estimation theory and the available paleodemographic data. 1 To estimate the remaining time t we will fulfill the assumption that the observer has an equal chance to be anyone at any time. -
Anthropic Measure of Hominid (And Other) Terrestrials. Brandon Carter Luth, Observatoire De Paris-Meudon
Anthropic measure of hominid (and other) terrestrials. Brandon Carter LuTh, Observatoire de Paris-Meudon. Provisional draft, April 2011. Abstract. According to the (weak) anthropic principle, the a priori proba- bility per unit time of finding oneself to be a member of a particular popu- lation is proportional to the number of individuals in that population, mul- tiplied by an anthropic quotient that is normalised to unity in the ordinary (average adult) human case. This quotient might exceed unity for conceiv- able superhuman extraterrestrials, but it should presumably be smaller for our terrestrial anthropoid relations, such as chimpanzees now and our pre- Neanderthal ancestors in the past. The (ethically relevant) question of how much smaller can be addressed by invoking the anthropic finitude argument, using Bayesian reasonning, whereby it is implausible a posteriori that the total anthropic measure should greatly exceed the measure of the privileged subset to which we happen to belong, as members of a global civilisation that has (recently) entered a climactic phase with a timescale of demographic expansion and technical development short compared with a breeding gen- eration. As well as “economist’s dream” scenarios with continual growth, this finitude argument also excludes “ecologist’s dream” scenarios with long term stabilisation at some permanently sustainable level, but it it does not imply the inevitability of a sudden “doomsday” cut-off. A less catastrophic likelihood is for the population to decline gradually, after passing smoothly through a peak value that is accounted for here as roughly the information content ≈ 1010 of our genome. The finitude requirement limits not just the future but also the past, of which the most recent phase – characterised by memetic rather than genetic evolution – obeyed the Foerster law of hyperbolic population growth. -
Terrestrial Impact Structures Provide the Only Ground Truth Against Which Computational and Experimental Results Can Be Com Pared
Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 1987. 15:245-70 Copyright([;; /987 by Annual Reviews Inc. All rights reserved TERRESTRIAL IMI!ACT STRUCTURES ··- Richard A. F. Grieve Geophysics Division, Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario KIA OY3, Canada INTRODUCTION Impact structures are the dominant landform on planets that have retained portions of their earliest crust. The present surface of the Earth, however, has comparatively few recognized impact structures. This is due to its relative youthfulness and the dynamic nature of the terrestrial geosphere, both of which serve to obscure and remove the impact record. Although not generally viewed as an important terrestrial (as opposed to planetary) geologic process, the role of impact in Earth evolution is now receiving mounting consideration. For example, large-scale impact events may hav~~ been responsible for such phenomena as the formation of the Earth's moon and certain mass extinctions in the biologic record. The importance of the terrestrial impact record is greater than the relatively small number of known structures would indicate. Impact is a highly transient, high-energy event. It is inherently difficult to study through experimentation because of the problem of scale. In addition, sophisticated finite-element code calculations of impact cratering are gen erally limited to relatively early-time phenomena as a result of high com putational costs. Terrestrial impact structures provide the only ground truth against which computational and experimental results can be com pared. These structures provide information on aspects of the third dimen sion, the pre- and postimpact distribution of target lithologies, and the nature of the lithologic and mineralogic changes produced by the passage of a shock wave. -
Tazewell County Warren County Westmoreland~CO~Tt~~'~Dfla
If you have issues viewing or accessing this file, please contact us at NCJRS.gov. Tazewell County Warren County Westmoreland~CO~tt~~'~dfla Bedford Bristol Buena Vista Charl~esville ~ake clnr(~ F:Org I Heights Covington Danville Emporia Fairfax Falls ~.~tur.~~l~).~ ~urg Galax Hampton HarrisonburgHopj~ll~l Lexingtor~ynchburgl~'~assa ~ anassas Martinsville Newport News Norfolk Norton PetersbutrgPoque~o~ .Portsmouth Radford Richmond Roano~l~~ Salem ~th Bostor~t~nto SuffoLk Virginia Beach Waynesboro Williamsburg Winchester ~a~:~ingham Ceuul~ Carroll County Charlotte County Cra~ Col~ty Roar~ County~cco~Lac= Albemarle County Alleghany County Amelia County#~rlb~ ~NJ~/Ly,~ll~iatt~ County Arlington CountyAugula County Bath i~nty BerJ~rd Cd~t B.I.... ~1 County Botetourt County Brunswick County Buchanal~C~ut~ ~~wrtty Caroline County Charles City C~nty Ch~erfield~bunty C~rrke Co~t CT~-~eperCounty Dickenson County Dinwiddie County~ ~~~ r-'luvanneCounty Frederick County C~ucester (~unty C~yson (j~nty Gre~=~ County Greensville County Halifax County Hanover County ~ .(D~I~ I~liry Cottnty Highland County Isle of *~.P-.o.~t~l~me~y C~ ~county King George County King William County~r .(~,t~ ~ (~'~ Loudoun County Louisa County M~ Mat~s Cot]1~l~~ qt... ~ Montgomery County New Kent County North~ur~d County N~y County Page County Pittsylvania CouniY--Powhatan]~.~unty Princ~eorg, oC'6-~ty Prince William County Rappahannock County Richmol~l 0~)1~1=I~Woo~ Gi0ochtandCounty Lunenburg County Mecklenburl~nty Nelson Count Northampton CountyOrange County Patrick CountyPdn¢~ -
Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk
ORE Open Research Exeter TITLE Working together to face humanity's greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk AUTHORS Currie, AM; Ó hÉigeartaigh, S JOURNAL Futures DEPOSITED IN ORE 06 February 2019 This version available at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/35764 COPYRIGHT AND REUSE Open Research Exeter makes this work available in accordance with publisher policies. A NOTE ON VERSIONS The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk. Adrian Currie & Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh Penultimate Version, forthcoming in Futures Acknowledgements We would like to thank the authors of the papers in the special issue, as well as the referees who provided such constructive and useful feedback. We are grateful to the team at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who organized the first Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk where many of the papers collected here were originally presented, and whose multi-disciplinary expertise was invaluable for making this special issue a reality. We’d like to thank Emma Bates, Simon Beard and Haydn Belfield for feedback on drafts. Ted Fuller, Futures’ Editor-in-Chief also provided invaluable guidance throughout. The Conference, and a number of the publications in this issue, were made possible through the support of a grant from the Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF); the conference was also supported by a supplementary grant from the Future of Life Institute. -
The Minor Planet Bulletin
THE MINOR PLANET BULLETIN OF THE MINOR PLANETS SECTION OF THE BULLETIN ASSOCIATION OF LUNAR AND PLANETARY OBSERVERS VOLUME 36, NUMBER 3, A.D. 2009 JULY-SEPTEMBER 77. PHOTOMETRIC MEASUREMENTS OF 343 OSTARA Our data can be obtained from http://www.uwec.edu/physics/ AND OTHER ASTEROIDS AT HOBBS OBSERVATORY asteroid/. Lyle Ford, George Stecher, Kayla Lorenzen, and Cole Cook Acknowledgements Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire We thank the Theodore Dunham Fund for Astrophysics, the Eau Claire, WI 54702-4004 National Science Foundation (award number 0519006), the [email protected] University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire Office of Research and Sponsored Programs, and the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (Received: 2009 Feb 11) Blugold Fellow and McNair programs for financial support. References We observed 343 Ostara on 2008 October 4 and obtained R and V standard magnitudes. The period was Binzel, R.P. (1987). “A Photoelectric Survey of 130 Asteroids”, found to be significantly greater than the previously Icarus 72, 135-208. reported value of 6.42 hours. Measurements of 2660 Wasserman and (17010) 1999 CQ72 made on 2008 Stecher, G.J., Ford, L.A., and Elbert, J.D. (1999). “Equipping a March 25 are also reported. 0.6 Meter Alt-Azimuth Telescope for Photometry”, IAPPP Comm, 76, 68-74. We made R band and V band photometric measurements of 343 Warner, B.D. (2006). A Practical Guide to Lightcurve Photometry Ostara on 2008 October 4 using the 0.6 m “Air Force” Telescope and Analysis. Springer, New York, NY. located at Hobbs Observatory (MPC code 750) near Fall Creek, Wisconsin. -
Warfare in a Fragile World: Military Impact on the Human Environment
Recent Slprt•• books World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook 1979 World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbooks 1968-1979, Cumulative Index Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation Other related •• 8lprt books Ecological Consequences of the Second Ihdochina War Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Environment Publish~d on behalf of SIPRI by Taylor & Francis Ltd 10-14 Macklin Street London WC2B 5NF Distributed in the USA by Crane, Russak & Company Inc 3 East 44th Street New York NY 10017 USA and in Scandinavia by Almqvist & WikseH International PO Box 62 S-101 20 Stockholm Sweden For a complete list of SIPRI publications write to SIPRI Sveavagen 166 , S-113 46 Stockholm Sweden Stoekholol International Peace Research Institute Warfare in a Fragile World Military Impact onthe Human Environment Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of disarmament and arms regulation. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden's 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed by the Swedish Parliament. The staff, the Governing Board and the Scientific Council are international. As a consultative body, the Scientific Council is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Dr Rolf Bjornerstedt, Chairman (Sweden) Professor Robert Neild, Vice-Chairman (United Kingdom) Mr Tim Greve (Norway) Academician Ivan M£ilek (Czechoslovakia) Professor Leo Mates (Yugoslavia) Professor -
Global Catastrophic Risks 2016
Global Challenges Foundation Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 © Global Challenges Foundation/Global Priorities Project 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to raise awareness of the The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their Global Catastrophic Risks. Primarily focused on climate change, other en- statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations. vironmental degradation and politically motivated violence as well as how these threats are linked to poverty and rapid population growth. Against this Authors: background, the Foundation also works to both identify and stimulate the Owen Cotton-Barratt*† development of good proposals for a management model – a global gover- Sebastian Farquhar* nance – able to decrease – and at best eliminate – these risks. John Halstead* Stefan Schubert* THE GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT helps decision-makers effectively prior- Andrew Snyder-Beattie† itise ways to do good. We achieve his both by advising decision-makers on programme evaluation methodology and by encouraging specific policies. We * = The Global Priorities Project are a collaboration between the Centre for Effective Altruism and the Future † = The Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford of Humanity Institute, part of the University of Oxford. Graphic design: Accomplice/Elinor Hägg Global Challenges Foundation in association with 4 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 5 Contents Definition: Global Foreword 8 Introduction 10 Catastrophic Risk Executive summary 12 1. An introduction to global catastrophic risks 20 – risk of events or 2. What are the most important global catastrophic risks? 28 Catastrophic climate change 30 processes that would Nuclear war 36 Natural pandemics 42 Exogenous risks 46 lead to the deaths of Emerging risks 52 Other risks and unknown risks 64 Our assessment of the risks 66 approximately a tenth of 3. -
Species Extinctions
http://www.iucn.org/about/union/commissions/wcpa/?7695/Multiple-ocean-stresses- threaten-globally-significant-marine-extinction Multiple ocean stresses threaten “globally significant” marine extinction 20 June 2011 | News story An international panel of experts warns in a report released today that marine species are at risk of entering a phase of extinction unprecedented in human history. The preliminary report arises from a ‘State of the Oceans’ workshop co-hosted by IUCN in April, the first ever to consider the cumulative impact of all pressures on the oceans. Considering the latest research across all areas of marine science, the workshop examined the combined effects of pollution, acidification, ocean warming, over-fishing and hypoxia (deoxygenation). The scientific panel concluded that the combination of stresses on the ocean is creating the conditions associated with every previous major extinction of species in Earth’s history. And the speed and rate of degeneration in the ocean is far greater than anyone has predicted. The panel concluded that many of the negative impacts previously identified are greater than the worst predictions. As a result, although difficult to assess, the first steps to globally significant extinction may have begun with a rise in the extinction threat to marine species such as reef- forming corals. “The world’s leading experts on oceans are surprised by the rate and magnitude of changes we are seeing,” says Dan Laffoley, Marine Chair of IUCN’s World Commission on Protected Areas, Senior Advisor on Marine Science and Conservation for IUCN and co-author of the report. “The challenges for the future of the ocean are vast, but unlike previous generations, we know what now needs to happen. -
DMAAC – February 1973
LUNAR TOPOGRAPHIC ORTHOPHOTOMAP (LTO) AND LUNAR ORTHOPHOTMAP (LO) SERIES (Published by DMATC) Lunar Topographic Orthophotmaps and Lunar Orthophotomaps Scale: 1:250,000 Projection: Transverse Mercator Sheet Size: 25.5”x 26.5” The Lunar Topographic Orthophotmaps and Lunar Orthophotomaps Series are the first comprehensive and continuous mapping to be accomplished from Apollo Mission 15-17 mapping photographs. This series is also the first major effort to apply recent advances in orthophotography to lunar mapping. Presently developed maps of this series were designed to support initial lunar scientific investigations primarily employing results of Apollo Mission 15-17 data. Individual maps of this series cover 4 degrees of lunar latitude and 5 degrees of lunar longitude consisting of 1/16 of the area of a 1:1,000,000 scale Lunar Astronautical Chart (LAC) (Section 4.2.1). Their apha-numeric identification (example – LTO38B1) consists of the designator LTO for topographic orthophoto editions or LO for orthophoto editions followed by the LAC number in which they fall, followed by an A, B, C or D designator defining the pertinent LAC quadrant and a 1, 2, 3, or 4 designator defining the specific sub-quadrant actually covered. The following designation (250) identifies the sheets as being at 1:250,000 scale. The LTO editions display 100-meter contours, 50-meter supplemental contours and spot elevations in a red overprint to the base, which is lithographed in black and white. LO editions are identical except that all relief information is omitted and selenographic graticule is restricted to border ticks, presenting an umencumbered view of lunar features imaged by the photographic base. -
October 2006
OCTOBER 2 0 0 6 �������������� http://www.universetoday.com �������������� TAMMY PLOTNER WITH JEFF BARBOUR 283 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1 In 1897, the world’s largest refractor (40”) debuted at the University of Chica- go’s Yerkes Observatory. Also today in 1958, NASA was established by an act of Congress. More? In 1962, the 300-foot radio telescope of the National Ra- dio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) went live at Green Bank, West Virginia. It held place as the world’s second largest radio scope until it collapsed in 1988. Tonight let’s visit with an old lunar favorite. Easily seen in binoculars, the hexagonal walled plain of Albategnius ap- pears near the terminator about one-third the way north of the south limb. Look north of Albategnius for even larger and more ancient Hipparchus giving an almost “figure 8” view in binoculars. Between Hipparchus and Albategnius to the east are mid-sized craters Halley and Hind. Note the curious ALBATEGNIUS AND HIPPARCHUS ON THE relationship between impact crater Klein on Albategnius’ southwestern wall and TERMINATOR CREDIT: ROGER WARNER that of crater Horrocks on the northeastern wall of Hipparchus. Now let’s power up and “crater hop”... Just northwest of Hipparchus’ wall are the beginnings of the Sinus Medii area. Look for the deep imprint of Seeliger - named for a Dutch astronomer. Due north of Hipparchus is Rhaeticus, and here’s where things really get interesting. If the terminator has progressed far enough, you might spot tiny Blagg and Bruce to its west, the rough location of the Surveyor 4 and Surveyor 6 landing area.