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PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT in the NORTHEAST a Market Overview and Literature Review

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PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT in the NORTHEAST a Market Overview and Literature Review PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT IN THE NORTHEAST A Market Overview and Literature Review By Charles Zhu and Nick Nigro Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) Prepared for the Transportation and Climate Initiative, Georgetown Climate Center, and New York State Energy Research and Development Authority Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy September 2012 NOTICE This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number #DE-EE0005586. This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, and the State of New York. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Information and documents published under the name of the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) represent work produced in support of the TCI or its projects. TCI materials do not necessarily reflect the positions of individual jurisdictions or agencies unless explicitly stated. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Deployment in the Northeast: A Market Overview and Literature Review September 2012 2 Foreword Electric vehicles have the potential to decrease our nation’s dependence on oil and drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. In an effort to stimulate economic growth, decrease the United States’ dependence on oil, and lessen the operating cost of personal transportation, the federal government issued a final rule in 2012 requiring new cars to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. This goal is ambitious and will be difficult to accomplish without significant numbers of alternative fuel vehicles. Several alternative fuels are currently available, but electric vehicles (EVs) are emerging as the predominant alternative for passenger vehicles. While EVs are hitting the market and offer numerous advantages, such as zero tailpipe emissions, lower fuel costs, and the convenience of filling up at home, a number of barriers stand in the way of wide-scale EV deployment. This literature review, prepared by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, provides an overview of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) deployment in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. The report assesses current electric vehicle and electric vehicle charging station technology, looks at the state of PEV markets, reviews the benefits of PEV deployment, and identifies the barriers and challenges to PEVs in gaining market acceptance. The literature review is intended to serve as a resource for consumers and policy makers who seek to better understand the nature of electric vehicle deployment in this region and related challenges. The Georgetown Climate Center commissioned and oversaw the preparation of this literature review on behalf of the Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI), as part of its effort to assess and address barriers to EV deployment in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Georgetown Climate Center Director of Research and Policy, Kate Zyla, and EV Program Coordinator, Cassie Powers, managed the oversight and review process, which included incorporating input from the TCI. In addition, Georgetown Climate Center worked extensively with 16 of the region’s Clean Cities Coordinators, who provided local information and offered comments. Their expertise and hard work were invaluable and enhanced the scope and quality of this report. This work is one of a series of products funded by a Department of Energy Electric Vehicle Readiness Planning Grant, awarded to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority on behalf of TCI. Additional information can be found at http://www.georgetownclimate.org/tci/. We are grateful for their support. The Georgetown Climate Center also appreciates the support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Barr Foundation, which support our electric vehicles work, and our other transportation funders: the Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, Oak Foundation, and Surdna Foundation. Vicki Arroyo, Executive Director Peter Byrne, Faculty Director Georgetown Climate Center Georgetown Climate Center Plug-in Electric Vehicle Deployment in the Northeast: A Market Overview and Literature Review September 2012 3 Contents 1. Executive Summary and Background........................................................................................................................ 6 2. Plug-in Electric Vehicle Technologies Overview........................................................................................................ 8 PEV Definitions and Comparisons............................................................................................................................. 8 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Technology........................................................................................... 10 EVSE and Managed Charging .................................................................................................................................. 11 3. Market Potential and Overview.............................................................................................................................. 12 National PEV Market Growth and Potential ........................................................................................................... 12 Market Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Consumer Demand ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic PEV Market Growth and Potential............................................................................. 15 4. PEV Benefits............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Decreased Reliance on Oil ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Economic Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 19 Local Air Quality...................................................................................................................................................... 21 Global Climate Change............................................................................................................................................ 23 5. PEV Deployment: Barriers and Options .................................................................................................................. 27 Vehicle Appeal ........................................................................................................................................................ 27 Capital Cost Reductions Needed for Vehicles..................................................................................................... 27 Capturing and Presenting the Total Value Proposition........................................................................................... 31 Consumer Uncertainty and BEV Range Anxiety.................................................................................................. 35 Summary and Policy Options .............................................................................................................................. 37 Charging Build-Out and Finance ............................................................................................................................. 40 EVSE Permitting and Inspection Process............................................................................................................. 41 Residential Consumer Charging .......................................................................................................................... 44 Workplace, Publicly Accessible & Commercial Charging .................................................................................... 46 Standards ............................................................................................................................................................ 49 Financing Charging Infrastructure....................................................................................................................... 50 Summary and Policy Actions............................................................................................................................... 53 Impacts on the Grid and Transportation Funds...................................................................................................... 56 Grid Impacts.......................................................................................................................................................
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