.The Case for More Babies Joel E. Cohen

What to Expect exceeded 2.1) and yet it grew from 209 of accidents of history and thou­ change" projection is not a prediction. When No One's Expecting: million in 1970 to 310 million in 2010, sands of little choices. It is a "what if" thought experiment. It America's Coming an increase by nearly half. With a fer­ oddly assumes that net migration into Demographic Disaster tility rate that fell steadily from 2.01 in He recognizes that America has other the US remains constant until 2050 by Jonathan V. Last. 1993 to 1.61 in 2009, the population of women: and then declines toward zero: This Encounter, 230 pp., $23.99 China grew from 1.19 billion to 1.33 bil­ assumption is even less realistic than lion. Last's simplification of the Golden Black women have a healthy assuming birth rates and death rates Number omits the crucial effects of mi­ TFR of 1.96. White women, on remain constant at 2010 values through Demography is the key factor. gration to the United States, China's the other hand, have a TFR of 2100. If you are not able to maintain high proportion of young people be­ 1.79. Our national average is only In this scenario, the US population yourself biologically, how do you fore the One-Child policy, as well as boosted because Hispanic women rises to 335 million people in 2040 and expect to maintain yourself eco­ the timing of childbearing and mortal­ are ... having an average of 2.35 then Very slowly declines to 330 mil­ nomically, politically, and militar­ ity, especially child mortality. In Sierra babies. . . . Our concern isn't that lion in 2100, w4ere the projection ends. ily? It's impossible. The answer of Leone in 1995-2000, tlie replacement Hispanic Americans are having America's projected population size letting people from other countries would be larger than it is now (around come in . .. that would be an eco­ 315 million people in 2013) for the re­ nomic solution, but it's not a solu­ mainder of the twenty-first century. Is tion of your real sickness, that you this an imminent crisis for America? are not able to maintain your own Last claims more: "Population con­ civilization. traction is where most of the world is headed." True, more than half - Viktor Orban, the world's women have had below­ Prime Minister of Hungary, 2012 replacement fertility rates since (epigraph of What to Expect When roughly 2003. Still, he ignores that No One's Expecting) global population grew by a billion people from 1999 to 2012 and is cur­ Jonathan Last wants Americans to rently rising by 75-80 million people a have more babies. If we don't, he warns, year (adding every four years or so as the proportion of young people will many people as the current US popula­ fall while the proportion of old people tion). In the UN's "no change" projec­ will rise to unprecedented levels. This tion, global population rises from 7.1 aging of the population will bankrupt billion in 2013 to 18.3 billion by 2100. our retirement system or divert spend­ In the UN's "low fertility" projection, ing from other priorities or- heaven assuming fertility rates that are half a forbid-lead to an increase in taxes. child lower than the UN's best guess, It will weaken America's capacity to global population rises for at least project military power in the world be­ three decades to 8.1 billion in 2046 and cause · families with few offspring will then slowly coasts downward to 6.2 bil­ be reluctant to sacrifice them in battle. lion in 2100, just above the 6.1 billion It will diminish the proportion of inno­ people in the world in 2000. Is this an vators in the economy and lower Amer­ imminent crisis for the world? ica's rate of economic improvement. It will undermine America's competitive position in the world. Last blames what he presents as a cri­ "In the long run," Last writes, "the sis in American fertility rates on "the groups that breed will (literally) inherit ubiquity of college, the delay of mar­ the future." To save America from the Titian: The Worship of Venus, 1518-1520 riage, the birth-control pill, car-seat dire ills that accompany "the long, inex­ laws, [lack of] religious participation, orable process" of demographic decline, level of the fertility rate exceeded 3.4 too many babies . . .. The problem the rise of the thousand-dollar stroller, he calls for a resurgent American natal­ children per woman's lifetime because with the elevated fertility level of and Social Security. This is a partial ism-many more babies must be born. of very high death rates in childhood. Hispanic Americans is that it isn't list." Social Security? · What to Expect When No One's Ex­ America's fertility rate of 1.93 chil­ likely to last. pecting is one more in a series of politi­ dren. per woman's lifetime in 2010 Where people's offspring had for cally tendentious books on population does not necessarily mean the average Immigrants usually adjust their fertil­ centuries seen to the financial decline, among them Fred Pearce's The American woman alive in 2010 will ity rates to those of their country of needs of their parents, retired peo­ Coming Population Crash (2010), Ben have 1.93 children in her lifetime, be­ destination. ple with no offspring now [have] Wattenberg's The Birth Dearth (1987) cause fertility rates changed in the past What's wrong if America's fertility access to a set of comparable ben­ and Fewer: How the New Demography and will change in the future. The fer­ rate remains below replacement level? efits. They could free-ride on the of Depopulation Will Shape Our Fu­ tility rate indicates the current level of system. . . . Those programs are ture (2004), and Phillip Longman's The childbearing in a -population. By anal­ The short answer is that sub­ now incentivizing couples to have Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates ogy, a speedometer reading of sixty replacement fertility rates even­ fewer- or no-children Threaten World Prosperity, and What miles per h9ur usefully indicates a car's tually lead to a shrinking of to Do About It (2005). current speed, without implying that population-and throughout re­ - i.e., children who would have looked Last claims: "In order for a coun­ the car will be sixty miles further down corded human history, declining after them. That the pensioners who try to maintain a steady population, it the road after one hour (except when populations have always followed had been employed with and without needs a fertility rate of 2.1-remem­ the car operates without interruption or been followed by Very Bad children paid Social Security taxes ber this as the Golden Number. If the under cruise control on a superhighway Things. Disease. War. Economic all their working lives doesn't seem to rate is higher, the country's popula­ with no accidents or congestion). stagnation or collapse. And these matter to Last. tion grows; lower, and it shrinks." The grim tidings from history may be Other causes of America's low fertil­ truth is subtler. If a country has low and in our future, since population ity, in Last's view, include higher edu­ constant death rates, and if migration Last sees the current below­ contraction is where most of the cation for women, women's entry into changes neither numbers nor ages in replacement fertility rates in some world is headed. jobs other than teaching, increasing co­ the population, and if its total fertility parts of America's population as an habitation without producing children, rate is constant at around 2.1 children acute, momentous problem. "In Amer­ Last leaps from America's below­ falling rates of ever marrying by a given per woman's lifetime for a sufficiently ica," he worries, replacement fertility rates to the con­ age, the rise of divorce, the decreasing long period, then in the long run its clusion that American population is percentage of single-family homes, the population size will remain constant. the fertility rate for white, college­ headed for decline. He never says how rising percentage of apartments and When the "ifs" do not hold, however, educated women-we'll use them soon that could happen. The United condominiums, frequent change of a fertility rate below 2.1 no longer pre­ because they serve as a fair proxy Nations Population Division in 20W residence, the high cost of land, and, of dicts population decline. The popula­ for our middle class-is 1.6. In calculated the future size of the popula­ course, the Supreme Court. tion of the United States had a fertility other words, America has created tion of every country in the world if nei­ The· Supreme Court's first mistake, rate below 2.1 from 1971 to 2010 (ex­ its very own One-Child Policy. It's ther birth rates nor death rates changed Last writes, was its erroneous deci­ cept in 2006 and 2007, when it slightly soft and unintentional, the result from their current values. This "no sion in Griggs v. Duke Power (1971)

April24, 2014 57 to outlaw using racially discriminatory they pass exams for specific subjects. is destiny... . Never has that been more which also makes childbearing difficult test results in employment decisions. According to Walter Russell Mead, true than today." But no: Last states and costly) conflicts with bearing and Because "the Court held that employ­ who originated this idea, "Subject that "demography is not destiny" and rearing children within a stable family ers could not rely on IQ -type tests if exams calibrated to a national stan­ warns that "we should be careful never (which entails parental sacrifice, per­ minorities performed relatively poorly dard would give employers something to confuse the two." Still, his entire sonal and economic). These internal on them, ... employers ... launder their they do not now have: assurance that a book argues that demography is domi­ conflicts of values are no more resolved request for test scores through the col­ student has achieved a certain level of nant in military, economic, political, in Last's book than they are in Ameri­ lege system, because colleges are al­ knowledge and skill." And "the gov­ and cultural matters. He tries to have can society. lowed to use such considerations." In ernment should stipulate that public it both ways. In their excellent histori­ Let us set aside unknowable future Last's view this decision gave support universities become family-friendly" cal summary in The Fear of Population numbers of births. Are too few children to higher education, which he deplores, by providing housing for students with Decli!Je, written in 1985, Michael Teit­ born these days in the US or the world? writing that it "dampens fertility in all families and children. Forget states' elbaum and Jay Winter were prophetic: Last answers this question by inferring sorts of ways. It delays marriage, incurs rights or local control. the eventual effects of assumed fertility debt, increases the opportunity costs Third, fix land costs. According to A belief in demographic determin­ rates on retirement systems, military of childbearing, and greatly increases Last, "since land costs contribute so ism suffuses the writings of many defense, and economic production. I the expense of raising a child." It also much to family formation costs, the of those who addressed the prob­ would rather look at children and those makes people more likely to use effec­ government has an interest in trying to lem of population decline in the -who produce them. tive contraception. open the field for parents who would period 1870-1945 .... If contracep­ How highly do we value the chil­ The Supreme Court's second mis­ have more children if they could af­ tion was a key subversive agent in dren we have now? If every child were take was Roe v. Wade in 1973. Last ford them." Accordingly, government contemporary history, then one treated as so precious that the scarcity writes with candor: "Yes, I'm one of should "make the suburbs more acces­ could dispense with arguments of children appeared to be distorting those anti-abortion nut jobs who thinks sible by improving our highway sys­ American life, then I would conclude that every embryo is sacred life and tem .... The answer is not more public that we are not having enough children. abortion is killing an innocent." The transportation." In his only recommen­ On the other hand, if children are widely consequences of illegal abortions and dation addressed to the private sector, treated as cheap, as a nuisance of small unwanted live births merit no atten­ Last encourages telecommuting, which value, then I would conclude that we tion. Since abortions reduce the num­ would allow· peoele to live where land are having too many children relative ber of births, they must be bad. is cheap. He does not mention the pos­ to the care we choose to provide them. In his chapter called "Very Bad sibility of improving the private sec­ No doubt, some fortunate children are Things," Last summarizes the causes tor's employment practices regarding treated as precious (e.g., my children, of America's low fertility using what child care, parental leaves, and guaran­ and maybe Last's children and yours). some demographers call the "Second tees of employment after childbearing. But in a world that produces enough Demographic Transition" (SDT) and Last estimates that it costs over $1.1 food to feed everyone adequately, 26 what he calls "the trap of mode.rnity, million to raise a single child, largely percent of all children under age five which pushes people to eschew chil­ in the form of mothers' (always moth­ (roughly 165 million children) were dren in favor of more pleasurable pur­ ers') foregone salaries. Meanwhile, stunted in 2010. A stunted child is ab­ &uits." He writes: "the median price of a home in 2008 normally short for his or her age, by was $180,100." If his figures are right, the standards of normally fed children, The SDT theory ... predicts that median home prices are 16 percent of as a result of chronic undernutrition. cohabitation, widespread contra­ the cost of raising a single child, and for Stunting generally impairs mental and ceptive use, and liberal abortion most of the country, the cost of land is physical capacity, health, and economic policies· will materialize in all de­ a small fraction of the cost of a home. productivity for the rest of a person's life. veloped, democratic countries, the Last's own statistics do not support his According to World Health Organi­ result of people valuing their self­ claim that "land costs contribute so zation data of 2012, "childhood mal­ actualization and individualism much to family formation costs." The star child at the end of nutrition was an underlying cause of over more traditional inoral pre­ Fourth, fix immigration. "A reason­ Stanley Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey death in an estimated 35 percent of all cepts. These three horsemen have ably liberal program of immigration deaths among children under the age indeed ridden across the entire lib­ is necessary for the long-term health about the destabilizing effects of of five." When more than one in four eralized world. of our country. Yet at the same time, poverty and inequality. Hence, children is stunted and when a cause this liberal approach to immigration for such writers, a simple form of of death of more than one in three ~Having identified the causes and cat­ should be coupled with a staunchly demographic analysis could com­ of those who die is the lack of proper astrophic consequences of America's traditionalist view of integration," Last pletely and conveniently displace food, I conclude that, globally, children low fertility rates, Last offers his cures. writes. "Toler·ance need not be surren­ social analysis. are being treated as cheap and dispos­ "What you need is a serious, decades­ der and a certain amount of cultural able. We need better care and feeding long commitment to family growth." chauvinism is necessary for societal co­ of the children we do create before we The problem, ac«ording to him, is that herence." Just how that cultural chau­ Is correlation causation? Obviously need more children. researchers find almost universally that vinism should be imposed is not clear. not, says Last: In the United States, stunted children "having children makes parents less Fifth, fix "the Church and the State." are rare. Do Americans have too few happy.... Why can't you bribe people Last insists that Please understand I am not argu­ children? Ask those who have them. Ac­ into having babies? Because, for the ing that correlation equals causa­ cording to a 2008 report of the us-cen­ most part, people aren't stupid." So, it is important we preserve the role tion .... What I am hoping to do is ters for Disease Control and Prevention, he says, "the overarching principle of religion in our public square, re­ layer enough of these trends upon of the live births in the United States in behind American natalism should al­ sisting those critics who see theoc­ enough of these data points to con­ 2003, 86 percent were wanted at concep­ ways be this: The government cannot racy lurking behind every corner. vince you that each trend is prob­ tion. The percentage of births wanted get people to have children they do not Our government should be wel­ ably c~ntributing some part to the at conception was highest for non­ want. However, it can help people have coming of, not hostile to, believ­ outcomes you'll see. Hispanic whites, 89.3 percent; lower the children they do want" (his italics). ers-if for no other reason than for Hispanics, 83.2 percent; and lowest Last cautions, "Our best bet, I suspect, they're the ones who create most But maybe correlation does equal cau­ for non-Hispanic blacks, 73.8 percent. is not to try to remake the culture with of the future taxpayers. sation: "The Pill first became available After all miscarriages, induced abor­ the levers of government." Still, almost in America- and much of the West-in tions, and still births, toughly one live all his recommendations are directed Not to mention most of the future So­ 1960, just before fertility rates dropped birth in seven was unwanted at concep­ to government and we can expect to cial Security recipients. Last does not through tl).e floor." Isn't the reader sup­ tion. The report observes, "Mothers hear them in political debates to come. suggest how religious organizations, or posed to infer that the Pill contributed who report a pregnancy as unwanted at any others, could better educate young importantly to the drop in fertility? the time of conception may later cher­ people in the skills and rewards, as well American fertility rates have generally ish the child born as a result of that First, he says, fix Social Security, fol­ as the inevitable stresses and strains, of declined at least since the Civil War. pregnancy." It also warns: "Studies lowing a suggestion of Phillip Long­ raising children well, within or outside What would Last have us believe about have shown that births from pregnan­ man, by reducing a couple's FICA taxes of marriage. the effect of the Pill on fertility rates? cies that were unwanted at conception by one third for the birth of each child Last moves back and forth between The deepest unresolved tensions in may be associated with adverse conse­ until the children turn eighteen. contradictory positions regarding de­ the book are between the conflicting quences for the mother and the child." Second, "eliminate the need for mographic determinism, causation, values, shared by conservatives and I conclude that some women are college" by reversing Griggs v. Duke and freedom. Is demography destiny? liberals, of individual freedom (to pro­ having children they don't want, and Power. This "would upend the col­ Yes: he opens with the assertion of the create or not) and community respon­ it's bad for them and those children. lege system at a stroke." The govern­ ~ungarian Prime Minister Orban that sibility (which Last sees as entailing Rather than encouraging more births ment should "create a no-frills, federal "demography is the key factor" and procreation, while others have argued by restricting contraception and ban­ degree-granting body, which would cites approvingly Fred Pearce's The the opposite) .. For the conservative ning abortion, as Last desires, we need allow students to leapfrog the four-year Coming Population Crash, of which Last, the free-market system (which ac­ to improve mothers' success in having system" by earning certificates when the introduction begins, "Demography cording to him is intrinsically good but wanted children. 0

58 The New York Review Contents 4 Oliver Sacks The Mental Life of Plants and Worms, Among Others 10 Elaine Blair Dept. of Speculation by Jenny Offill 14 Cass R. Sunstein Would You Kill the Fat Man? The Trolley Problem and What Your Answer Tells Us About Right and Wrong by David Edmonds 20 David Shulman Omara film directed by Harry Abu-Assad Bethlehem a film directed by Yuval Adler 24 Cathleen Schine The Visionist by Rachel Urquhart 26 Robert Winter · Play It Again: An Amateur Against the Impossible by Alan Rusbridger 28 Paul Wilson Fire and Ashes: Success and Failure in Politics by Michael Ignatieff 31 Sanford Schwartz Piero della Francesca: Personal Encounters an exhibition at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York City, January 14-March 30, 2014 Catalog of the exhibition by Keith Christiansen, with contributions by Roberto Bellucci, Cecilia Frosinini, Anna Pizzati, and Chiara Rossi Scarzanella 32 Christopher de Bellaigue Iran: A New Deal? 35 Leo Carey The Exiles Return by Elisabeth de Waal 37 Helen Epstein Uganda: The General Challenges the Dictator 40 John Ashbery Two Poems 41 G. W. Bowersock The Story of the Jews: Finding the Words, 1000 BC-1492 AD by Simon Schama 44 Freeman Dyson Churchill's Bomb: How the United States Overtook Britain in the First Nuclear Arms Race by Graham Farmelo 47 Michael Greenberg Dissident Gardens by Jonathan Lethem 50 Jeffrey Madrick The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths by Mariana Mazzucato Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Markets, Speculation and the State by William H. Janeway 53 J.D. McClatchy Poem 54 Peter Green Victorian Culture and Classical Antiquity: Art, Opera, Fiction, and the Proclamation of Modernity by Simon Goldhill 57 Joel E. Cohen What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic 'Disaster by Jonathan V. Last 59 Ruth Bernard Yeazell My Life in Middlemarch by Rebecca Mead 62 Colin McGinn Touching a Nerve: The Self as Brain by Patricia S. Churchland 63 .. Keith Gessen Shklovsky: Witness to an Era by Serena Vitale and three books by Viktor Shklovsky 67 George Soros and Gregor Peter Schmitz The Future of Europe, from Iran to Ukraine: An Interview 69 Letters from David Martin, Edward Mendelson, James Piereson, Frank Rich, Jacques Semelin, Robert 0. Paxton, and Mario Livio CONTRIBUTORS JOHN ASHBERY's most recent collection of poetry is Quick COLIN McGINN is a philosopher whose books include The Question. His Collected French Translations are published this Character of Mind, The Problem of Consciousness, Consciousness month in two volumes, one of Prose and one of Poetry. and Its Objects, and The Meaning of Disgust. CHRISTOPHER DE BELLAIGUE is a writer and broadcaster OLIVER SACKS is a physician and the author of ten books, on the Middle East. His most recent book is Patriot of Persia: the most recent of which is Hallucinations. He is a professor of Muhammad Mossadegh and a Tragic Anglo-American Cpup. neurology at NYU School of Medicine and a visiting professor at the ELAINE BLAIR is a regular contributor to The New York Review. University of Warwick. G. W. BOWERSOCK is Professor Emeritus of Ancient History at CATHLEEN SCHINE's latest novel, Fin & Lady, was published the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton. His \atest book, The in July. Throne ofAdulis: Red Sea Wars on the Eve of Islam, was published SANFORD SCHWARTZ's reviews have been collected in The Art last year. Presence and Artist!! and Writers. LEO CAREY is a Senior Editor at The New Yorker. DAVID SHULMAN is the Renee Lang Professor of Humanistic JOEL Jl:-•• COHEN is Abby Rockefeller Mauze Professor of Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an activist in Populations at the Rockefeller University and Columbia University Ta'ayush, Arab-Jewish Partnership. His latest book is More Than and the author of How Many People Can the Earth Support? Real: A History of the Imagination in South India. FREEMAN DYSON is Professor of Physics Emeritus at the GEORGE SOROS is Chairman of Soros Fund Management LLC Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton. and the Open Society Foundations. GREGOR PETER SCHMITZ HELEN EPSTEIN is the author of The Invisible Cure: Why We is Europe correspondent of Der Spiegel and coauthor with George Are Losing the Fight Against AIDS in Africa. Soros of The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? KEITH GESSEN is a founding editor of n+I and the editor and cotranslator of Kirill Medvedev's It's No Good. CASS R. SUNSTEIN is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at PETER GREEN is Dougherty Centennial Professor Emeritus of Harvard. His new books are Why Nudge? and Conspiracy Theories Classics at the University of Texas at Austin and Adjunct Professor and Other Dangerous Ideas. at the University of Iowa. His most recent book is The Hellenistic PAUL WILSON is a writer based in Toronto. He has translated Age: A Short History. major works by Josef Skvorecky, Ivan Klima, Bohumil Hrabal, and MICHAEL GREENBERG is the author of Hurry Down Sunshine Vaclav Havel into English. and Beg, Borrow, Steal: A Writer's Life. ROBERT WINTER, Distinguished Professor of Music and holder JEFF MADRICK is Director of the Bernard L. Schwartz of the Presidential Chair in Music and Interactive Arts at UCLA, is Rediscovery Government Initiative at the Century Foundation, currently preparing for release Music in the Air, the first completely Editor of Challenge Magazine, and teaches at the Cooper Union. interactive history of Western music. He contributed to the article His forthcoming book is Seven Bad Ideas: How Mainstream Econ­ on performing practice in The New Grove Dictionary of Music. omists Damaged America and the World, to be published in the fall. RUTH BERNARD YEAZELL is Chace Family Professor of J.D. McCLATCHY is an American poet and librettist. He is English at Yale. Her books include Art of the Everyday: Dutch Editor of The Yale Review. His most recent book is Plundered Painting and the Realist Novel and Fictions ofModesty: Women and Hearts: New and Selected Poems. Courtship in the English Novel.

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