Human Growth Through Time Current world population: 7.35 Billion (Nov. 2016) http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ 2012 7 billion 13 years 1999 12 years 13 years 1974 14 years 33 years 1927 123 years 1804 Tens of thousands of years Birth and Death Rates

Birth rate is reported as the number of births per ______people Death rate is reported as the number of deaths per ______people Calculating Population Change

Immigration Emigration

Population Change = { Births + ______} – {Deaths + ______} (ZPG) occurs when factors that increase and decrease population size are in balance. Population Change Birth rates are higher in ______nations (highest on the ______continent)

Annual rate of population increase is expressed as a percentage. Country A has a birth rate of 12 per 1000 in 2000, and a death rate of 9 per 1000 in the same year. What is its rate of growth in the year 2000 (assuming no net immigration or emigration), as a percent? Since the birth and death rates are given per 1000, need to convert the difference to a percent. ______Doubling time of a population can be calculated by the rule of 70: Doubling time = 70/percentage growth rate If a population of howler monkeys increases by 3.5% per year, how long will it take the population to double? ______Fertility Rates Replacement Fertility: Number of children a couple must have to replace themselves. ____ in developed nations ____ in developing nations (due to higher infant mortality) (TFR): Average number of children a woman will have in her child-bearing years. Global average: ____ Developed nations: _____ Developing nations: _____ National Geographic: Population density map http://www.nationalgeographic.com/earthpulse/population.html http://metrocosm.com/history-of-cities/ https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/#total-fertility-rate-from-1950-to-2015 Population Momentum Although the average fertility rate has gone down dramatically in the past few decades (from 5 in 1950 to 2.5 in 2015), because of the large number of people (esp. below the age of 15) the population is still greatly increasing, due to the ______between birth and age of ______

Singapore: Global Population Growth Through Time • World human population is now starting to show ______growth instead of exponential growth • Highest rates of growth—increases above _____per year— were seen briefly during the ______• Growth rate peaked at ______in 1963, and declined to 1.1% by 2009. • Annual births have reduced to 140 million since their peak at 173 million in the late 1990s • Deaths number 57 million per year and are expected to increase to ____ million per year by ______. • Current projections show a continued increase of ______(but a steady decline in the population ______) with the population to reach between 7.8 and 10.8 billion by the year 2050. Factors That Can Decrease Fertility Rates • greater availability of reliable ______• greater availability of legal ______• change in religious beliefs, traditions, & cultural norms away from encouraging ______. • increased ______; • higher average ______; • increased ______of raising & educating children; • ______infant mortality (larger families if infant death common) • increase in average level of education & ______; • increased educational & employment opportunities for ______; • greater availability of private & public ______; • decrease in importance of ______; Two Primary indicators of overall health of a country 1. ______(higher in developing nations) 2. ______(lower in developing nations) Birth & Death Rates Over Time • Death rates have decreased substantially during the past 100 years, due to: Improved ______(Green Revolution) and ______• birth rates have also decreased, but not as fast as death rates • the increasing difference between birth & death rates is what has led to ______population growth

In ______countries decreases in death rates are being accompanied by decreases in birth rates over time.

In ______countries decreases in death rates have not been accompanied by as large of decreases in birth rates over time, leading to major population increases. Model

1) Preindustrial Stage: ● both birth & death rates are relatively ______, ● the population does not ______, & the population size is small.

2) Transitional Stage: ● ______rate drops due to industrialization, increased food production, & improved health care; ● birth rates remain relatively ______, ● the population ______. • Many ______nations are in this stage. Demographic Transition 3) Industrial Stage: ● ______rate drops & eventually approaches a balance with death rate, ● leading to a ______population growth. 4) Postindustrial Stage: ● birth rate & death rates approximately balance, ______population growth is attained, & the population stabilizes at a size much ______than the preindustrial size; ● if birth rate declines below death rate ______population growth may even be attained. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/italys-birth-dearth/ Population Age Structure Age structure refers to the proportion of the population in each age class: Examples: Examples: Examples: Spain Italy Examples: Male Female Guatemala Finland USA Saudi Arabia Australia

Pre-reproductive Reproductive Post-reproductive Rapidly growing Slower growing Age 0-14 Age 14-45 Age > 45 : populations: Zero population Negative growth: pyramid–shaped more even age growth: ______age structures, distribution. nearly ______proportion of with large proportions of pre- reproductive than numbers of ____ reproductive & pre-reproductive ______reproductive individuals. individuals. individuals; Population Age Structure

Developing countries are expected to continue to have a pyramid shape through the year 2025, although the age structure will become somewhat more evenly distributed.

Populations of developed countries are expected to have an increasingly even age distribution through the year 2025. India vs. Japan • India: developing nation, so a wide base = fast-growing population • Japan: developed nation, narrow base = negative population growth Japan World Population Pyramid: Past, Present and Future Projections

http://www.worldlifeexpectanc y.com/world-population- pyramid

Case Studies: United States Census Stats: 2010: 310 mill (+8.4%) 2000: 286 mill (+13%) 1990: 253 mill (+9.8%) 1980: 231 mill (+11.43% 1970: 203 mill (+13.37%) 1960: 179 mill U.S. Immigration History Immigration in the U. S.: • as fertility ______, immigration has become a major source of population ______in the U.S.; • The arrival of new immigrants and the births of their children and grandchildren account for _____ of the U.S. population increase from 1965 to the 2015 (Pew Research Center)

• increasing levels of legal & illegal immigration have been happening since the 1960’s • working immigrants boost the national ______in the long run; but states often bear most of the cost Total Fertility in the United States

Total fertility (TFR) Baby in the United States Boom had a major increase during the "baby boom" (1946– 64) & is now hovering near ______.

TFR of major racial groups in the US, 1980-2010 Baby Boom Generation Population age structure of the United States continues to show a bulge as the baby boom generation ages. As the generation leaves the workforce, there will be less competition for ______, but there will be an increased demand for ______for the elderly (i.e. Social Security and Medicaid). Demographic Change in the United States

• By 2050, the US will see a more ______youth population, and the disappearance of the Baby Boom generation, which was largely ______

US Dept of Human and Health Services Case Studies: India • Early efforts at lowering population growth were unsuccessful because of poor planning, inefficiency, low status of women, extreme poverty, and lack of funds • Large regional differences exist in population and TFR. • Issues include gender imbalance, high poverty, pollution issues…see text and movie questions. • India’s total fertility rate fell to 2.3 in 2013, a significant slowdown in population growth, compared to 3.6 in 1991. • Large ______divide: women in villages have a fertility rate of 2.5, while that of urban residents is 1.8. • Large population ______• Projected to surpass China before ______. Case Studies: China • The One Child Only policy was implemented in 1979 to control growth. At the time, the population was 970 million. Part of the reason for this was a massive ______that started in the late 1950’s. • Incentives or rewards for families who adhered to the policy included better employment opportunities, higher wages and government assistance. Those who don’t were subjected to ______, and less access to government assistance, and ______. • There have been some exceptions to the policy since the 1980’s. • China’s current population is almost _____ billion (2015) • The one child policy is believed to have prevented up to ______births. • By 2030, China population is expected to reach its maximum, around ______billion Case Studies: China • By 2050, China is projected to have ______population growth • Projected population in 2050: 1.41 billion • In October, 2015 China relaxed the policy so all couples can now have ____ children • One reason for relaxing the policy is the ______of China’s population. By 2030, 25% of China’s population will be over 60. • Many couples in cities are not expected to have a second child, due to the high cost of raising children in urban areas. • Gender imbalance: One of the unintended side effects of the one-child policy is that China is now one of the most gender-imbalanced countries in the world due to a______preference for male offspring. • This has resulted in the practice of couples opting to abort female fetuses. Abortion is legal in China, although sex-selective abortion is not. • The gender ratio in China reached as high as ______boys for every 100 girls born, although this trend seems to be reversing. Case Studies: Nigeria High TFR due to • ______infant mortality • Religion (Muslim and Catholicism • Cultural Norms: Large families signal prosperity and importance • ______use <20% Many cities, such as Lagos, are very overcrowded with poor living conditions High level of youth unemployment can foster rise of militant groups and civil strife. Case Studies: Russia • Russia’s population peaked in the early 1990’s at 148 million and is now 142 million • By 2050, it is projected to be only ______million

Causes of decline: • Low fertility rate (1.6) • High death rate (15/1000; world average = 9/1000; US = 8/1000), One factor: high alcoholism rate— average life expectancy of males is 59 years, 72 years for women Case Studies: Russia Causes of Decline (cont’d) • High abortion rate: mosnews.com reported that in 2004, 1.6 million Russian women had abortions, while 1.5 million gave birth, BBC news reported that 13 abortions for every 10 live births • Low immigration rate: mostly former Russians moving back from the former republic Government measures to slow : supporting foster families, developing preschool education, promoting a healthy lifestyle, and incentives to have more than one child (a “Day of Conception”, and about $9,200, ~$36,112 relative to US standard of living). Public information campaigns Population Statistics of Case Study Countries Country Population Median k (%) Fertility (2016) Age Rate China 1.37 Billion 37.1 0.43% 1.6 India 1.27 Billion 27.6 1.19% 2.45 United States 324 Million 37.9 0.81% 1.87 Nigeria 186 Million 18.3 2.44% 5.13 Russia 142 Million 39.3 -0.06% 1.61 The Effect of AIDS

While the number of people infected with HIV continues to grow, the number of people with AIDS, and the number of people dying from AIDS is slowing down. An Aging Population The global population is getting older: The # of people 65 and older is projected to ______by 2050, from 531 million in 2010 to 1.5 billion in 2050. Seniors in the US is expected to slightly more than double, from 41 to 86 million.

Trading young for old: Most countries, including the US are projected to see the share of their population that is 65 and older ______the share that is younger than 15 by mid-century. An Aging Population and a shift to Africa

World compared to US

A population shift to Africa

Pressure on workers: working-age people in the ______world may have to support more dependents, while workers in ______nations will likely have to support fewer dependents. The Future: UN 2015 World Population Prospects 2015 2050 2100 World Population 7.3 bill 9.7 bill 11.2 bill Median Age 30 36 42 42 46 47 LDC’s* 20 26 36 Population >60 0.9 bill 2.1 bill 3.2 bill Life Expectancy 70 77 83 Global TFR 2.5 2.25 2.0 Good News: *LDC = Least Developed Country • Life expectancy increased by ___ yrs from 2005 to 2015 • Impact of AIDS ______in the last decade: Life expectancy in Africa was 62 in 1995, 52 in 2005, and is now 57 in 2015 • ______mortality fell from 71/1000 in 2005 to 50/1000 in 2015 • More than half this growth is expected to be Future Projections for in Africa • LDC’s (Least Developed Population Countries) projected to grow from 954 million to 1.9 billion in 2050 to 3.2 billion in 2100 • 46% of World’s Population in 2015 lived in countries with TFR less than replacement • Fertility Rates are dropping world-wide, with a slight increase in Europe • Net migration to High Income countries in 2000-2015 was 4.1 million • Net migration will account for 82% of growth in High Income countries from 2015 to 2050.