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World Population to 2300 E c o n o m i c & S o c i a l A f f a i r s A f a i r S o c i a l WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nations ST/ESA/SER.A/236 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nations New York, 2004 The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vi- tal interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and na- tional action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the ex- pression of any opinion on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The designations of “more developed regions” and “less developed regions” are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The term “country” as used in the text of this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. The present report has been reproduced without formal editing. ST/ESA/SER.A/236 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. ____________ ISBN_______________ Copyright © United Nations 2004 All rights reserved Printed in United Nations, New York PREFACE Every two years the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ Population Di- vision prepares the official United Nations estimates and projections of world, regional and national popu- lation size and growth, and demographic indicators. The results from the most recent set of estimates and projections were published in World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, a three-volume set issued over the period 2003-2004. The estimates and projections in the 2002 Revision cover the period 1950- 2050. The United Nations also prepares supplementary world population projections covering a much longer period, referred to as long-range projections. The United Nations previously published long-range projections on six occasions, each being consistent with the population projections of the following revi- sions of the World Population Prospects: 1968, 1978, 1980, 1990, 1996 and 1998. These publications pre- sented long-range projections for the world and its major areas, and since the 1990 set of projections, the long-range time horizon was until 2150. The Population Division has adopted two major innovations for this new set of long-range popula- tion projections based on the 2002 Revision. For the first time, the long-range projections are made at the national level, that is, for each of the 228 units constituting the world. In addition, the time horizon for the projections is extended to 2300, so as to allow for the eventual stabilization of the population in at least one scenario. In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of the Tech- nical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections at United Nations Headquarters in New York. The purpose of the meetings was to discuss the assumptions, methodology and preliminary results of the national population projections to 2300. This volume presents the results of the long-range projections, World Population to 2300, and in- cludes a detailed analysis. A series of essays on the issue of long-range projections have also been incor- porated in this report, enriching the debate on this important topic. Experts from outside the United Na- tions, many of whom took part in the technical working group meetings, authored these essays. The United Nations Population Division is grateful to the National Institute on Aging of the United States of America (NIA) whose grant help support this study. Acknowledgement is also due to Rodolfo A. Bulatao, who assisted the Population Division in the preparation of this report. The Population Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the prepara- tion of the long-range projections. This publication, as well as other population information, may also be accessed on the Population Division world wide web site at www.unpopulation.org. For further information about the long-range projections, please contact the office of Mr. Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, United Na- tions, New York, NY 10017, USA, tel: 212-963-3179 and fax: 212-963-2147. iii CONTENTS Page PREFACE....................................................................................................................................................................... iii EXPLANATORY NOTES .................................................................................................................................................. x PART ONE. REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Chapter I. PROJECTIONS TO 2050.................................................................................................................................... 4 A. World population.................................................................................................................................... 4 B. Major areas.. .......................................................................................................................................... 4 C. Assumptions........................................................................................................................................... 7 D. Long-range possibilities ......................................................................................................................... 9 II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RANGE GROWTH AND DECLINE .................................................................. 10 A. Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................ 10 B. World population.................................................................................................................................... 12 C. More developed and less developed regions .......................................................................................... 17 D. Major areas............................................................................................................................................. 22 E. Africa...................................................................................................................................................... 28 F. Asia ........................................................................................................................................................ 31 G. Latin America and the Caribbean........................................................................................................... 33 H. Oceania................................................................................................................................................... 34 I. Northern America................................................................................................................................... 36 J. Europe .................................................................................................................................................... 37 III. COUNTRY RANKINGS...................................................................................................................................... 41 A. Size......................................................................................................................................................... 41 B. Growth.................................................................................................................................................... 41 C. Fertility................................................................................................................................................... 50 D. Mortality................................................................................................................................................. 56 IV. POPULATION DENSITY .................................................................................................................................... 62 V. AGEING POPULATIONS.................................................................................................................................... 66 A. Major areas............................................................................................................................................
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