The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) ABDI (MTS)

Set up by the Government, the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) is a perma- nent Parliamentary Committee, which administratively functions in the Ministry of Defence. In addition to parliamentary members, ABDI’s members represent various expert organisations: FINNS`OPINIONS ON the Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Education and Culture, Defence Command Finland, Finnish Broadcasting FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY, Company, Finnish News Agency (STT), Union of Journalists in Finland, Finnish Media Federation, National Defence University, and Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI). NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY

ABDI investigates, on an annual basis, the opinions and attitudes of Finns towards security policy and the factors influencing them and conducts at least one extensive survey that covers the entire adult population in Finland. The questions cover foreign and security policy and national defence. Some of the questions represent a continuous sequence since the 1960s. The surveys by ABDI are in the public domain and accessible to all. THE ADVISORY BOARD FOR DEFENCE INFORMATION

The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

Ministry of Defence BP 31 Bulletins and reports 00131 HELSINKI www.defmin.fi/abdi January, 2020 2020:3

ABDI Bulletins and reports 2020:3

Finns`opinions on foreign and security policy, national defence and security The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

Helsinki 2020 Ministry of Defence

ISBN Nid.: 978-951-663-076-5 ISBN PDF: 978-951-663-077-2 ISSN nid.: 1796-055X ISSN PDF: 2490-0052

Layout: Government Administration Unit, Publications Paino: Punamusta Oy Helsinki 2020

ISTÖM ÄR ER P K M K Y I

M I KT LJÖMÄR Painotuotteet Painotuotteet1234 5678 4041-0619 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

FOREWORD

A survey commissioned by the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) explored the opinions of Finnish people on Finnish foreign and security policy as well as defence policy. The survey also included questions on factors relating to safety and citizens’ sense of security pertaining to developments concerning the next five years, on factors giving rise to concern and confidence over the future of the European Union as well as on preparing against various threats and on export of defence materiel. There were 19 questions.

ABDI has conducted annual opinion polls since its establishment in 1976. There are two questions raised by ABDI’s predecessor, the Advisory Board for Mental Defence from 1964 to 1975.

Commissioned by ABDI, the survey was carried out by market research company Taloustutkimus Oy. The study was conducted as a part of omnibus research in the form of personal interviews. Interviews were carried out with a total of 1011 individuals. The target group of the study comprised the entire population between the ages of 15 and 79, with the exception of the Åland Islands. The sample was formed by quota sampling in which the target group’s quotas were the distribution of age, gender, province and municipality. The interviews were conducted in 89 localities, 54 of which were cities and the remaining 35 other municipality types. The sample was weighted to match the target group. The weighted N values correspond to the population aged 15 to 79 in thousands (SVT 31/12/2018).

The interviews were conducted between 14 November and 3 December 2019. The survey's margin of error is about 3.2 percentage points in either direction.

3 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

When interpreting background variables related to party affiliation, it must be taken into account that the margin of error regarding the large parties is smaller, which enables the collection of more reliable information on these when compared to smaller parties whose supporters are numerically fewer in the sample. Only those parties whose voting was supported by more than 50 respondents have been included in the scoreboard.

Party affiliation was ascertained by asking the following question: “Which party would you vote for if parliamentary elections were held now?” Of all of the respondents, 76 per cent (767 persons) revealed their party affiliation, while 24 per cent (242) declined to do so. In 2018, the corresponding numbers were 68 per cent and 32 per cent.

Unweighted and weighted material by age group is divided as follows: Unweighted n Unweighted % Weighted N Weighted % 15–19 years 69 7 % 275 6 % 20–24 years 86 9 % 342 8 % 25–34 years 160 16 % 652 15 % 35–49 years 241 24 % 1055 24 % 50–64 years 207 20 % 1089 25 % 65–79 years 248 25 % 897 21 %

In the material, the 50-64-year-olds are somewhat under-represented. Over-repre- sentation and under-representation were corrected by weighting.

The division of regions is divided into three: South Finland (number of respondents 569), including the large areas of Helsinki Uusimaa and Southern Finland, Western Finland (number of respondents 210), including the large area of Western Finland, and Eastern Finland/Oulu/Lappi (number of respondents 232), including the large area of Northern and Eastern Finland. The table below shows the number and pro- portion of respondents in unweighted and weighted material at the level of large areas.

4 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Unweighted n Unweighted % Weighted N Weighted % Helsinki-Uusimaa 335 33 % 1327 31 % Southern Finland 234 23 % 798 19 % Western Finland 210 21 % 1281 30 % Northern and Eastern Finland 232 23 % 903 21 % In unweighted material, the large areas of Helsinki-Uusimaa and Southern Finland are somewhat over-represented. Over-representation and under-representation were corrected by weighting.

The report comprises a text section with illustrating figures that also present the time sequence of the questions asked in previous surveys. These illustrations were prepared by Taloustutkimus Oy. Some of the questions represent a continuous se- quence since 1964. The questions were drawn up by the research and work bran- ches of ABDI. The research branch compiled the report for the work branch.

The data from this survey, like that of the previous surveys, are stored in the Finnish Social Science Data Archive at the University of Tampere (www.fsd.uta.fi).

ABDI’s survey reports are available in Finnish, Swedish and English on ABDI’s home page (www.defmin.fi/mts).

In Sweden, the ‘Myndighet för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap’ (MSB) conducts simi- lar surveys. Their next report will be published in spring 2020 and can be accessed here: https://www.msb.se/sv/Produkter--tjanster/Publikationer

Also in Norway, the ‘Folk og Forsvar’ conducts annual surveys on security and defe- nce policy; their most recent report was published in August 2019. It can be acces- sed here: https://www.folkogforsvar.no/meningsmalinger/

The survey reports published by ABDI are in the public domain. When referring to them, reference must be made stating that the data come from a survey conducted by ABDI

.

5

Content

FOREWORD...... 3

Summary...... 9 Finnish national defence will strengthened...... 9 Personal will to defend the country remains very strong...... 9 Support for the current conscription system has increased...... 10 Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system...... 10 Decreased concern...... 10 Preparedness for various threats is felt to have improved...... 10 National defence will is strengthened...... 11 Why Finland should or should not be militarily defended in all situations, even if the result seems uncertain? ...... 13 Independence, freedom and one’s own country were important reasons for defending Finland...... 13 We should find better solutions to problems than guns...... 13 Personal will to defend the country remains very strong...... 14 Support for the current conscription system increased...... 14 Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system...... 16 Support for general civic service decreased...... 17 Confidence in the management of foreign policy is strong ...... 18 Support for military alignment strengthened ...... 18 Proportion of those who have a negative attitude towards NATO membership increased 19 General feeling of insecurity increased...... 20 Membership in the European Union has strengthened Finland’s security...... 20 Confidence over the future of the European Union remains unchanged...... 21 Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries and the European Union is seen as increasing Finland's security the most...... 22 Increased confidence in the management of defence policy...... 23 Strong support for Finland’s military cooperation...... 24 Military situation in Finland’s neighbouring areas is expected to remain the same...... 24 Support for the current level and increase of defence appropriations...... 25 Support for export of defence materiel with current regulations...... 26 Decreased concern...... 26 Preparedness for various threats is felt to have improved...... 27

Research Branch of ABDI in 2019–2023...... 28

Chairs of ABDI 2019–2023...... 28

Secretariat of ABDI...... 28 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Summary

Finnish national defence will strengthened

In the results of last year's opinion poll, the decline in the national defence will attracted the greatest attention. Based on the results of 2019, the decline in national defence will has halted and turned into a slight increase, including also the youngest age group.

This year, we asked the respondents to explain, in their own words, their answer to the question “Should Finns defend themselves militarily in all situations, even if the outcome seems uncertain?” The most important reasons given by those who answered the question in the affirmative highlighted independence, the country of birth, duty and freedom.

Those who answered the question in the negative gave as the most important reasons that diplomacy and negotiations are the primary means and, furthermore, that the use of weapons does not solve problems.

Personal will to defend the country remains very strong

More than eight out of ten are prepared to participate in different national defence tasks according to their own capabilities and skills, both men and women and all age groups. The question has been raised eleven times since 1995, and the results have been similar each time.

9 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Support for the current conscription system has increased

The maintenance of the current conscription system is supported by nearly eight out of ten men; a year ago the figure was seven out of ten. The current conscription system is supported by more than seven out of ten women, as was the case a year ago.

Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system

Two out of three consider that Finland's defence system should be based on the general conscription of men and voluntary military service for women, which is the current system. Support for this has increased by six percentage points compared to the survey a year ago.

Decreased concern

Since 2004, ABDI has asked to what extent different factors and phenomena cause concern for the future. This year, 18 phenomena were included. In almost all cases, concern has decreased compared to last year. The five most worrying factors are the same as last year, but the order has changed slightly. Today, the world's refugee situation and international terrorism are at the forefront, followed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and climate change while organised crime was raised as a new issue.

Preparedness for various threats is felt to have improved

The previous time respondents were asked to assess preparedness for 12 different threats was two years ago. For each threat, it is estimated that preparedness is better than before.

10 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

National defence will is strengthened

Two thirds of respondents, or 68% (66% in 2018), feel that if Finland is attacked, Finns must defend themselves by military means in all situations, even if the outcome is uncertain. This view was expressed by 78% (70% in 2018) of men and 58 per cent (62%) of women. Seventy-four per cent (72%) of those over 50 years of age feel this way, as do 66% (62%) of those between 25 and 34, 64% (69%) of those between 35 and 49 and 56% (49%) of respondents under 25 of age. (Figures 1A and 1B)

11 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 1A and 1B Will to defend the country ‘If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?’ Yes -answers Whole population Women Men 100

90

80

%

70

60

50 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2

Yes -answers Whole population Under 25 years 25–34 years 100

90

80

% 70

60

50

40 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01

Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2 Autumn 2

ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

12 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Eighty-two per cent (80% in 2018) of Centre Party supporters answered in the af- firmative, as did 81% (65%) of Coalition Party supporters, 76% (73%) of Finns Party supporters, 63% (71%) of Social Democratic Party (SDP) supporters, 60 per cent (36%) of Green Party supporters and 46 per cent (55%) of Left Alliance supporters.

One fifth, or 19% (23% in 2018) think that Finns should not defend themselves mili- tarily in all situations. Twenty-four percent of women (23% in 2018) and 15% of men (22%) share this view.

One third or 34% (30% in 2018) of Left Alliance supporters answered in the nega- tive, as did 23% (49%) of Green Party supporters, 22% (21%) of SDP supporters, 17% (21%) of Finns Party supporters, 15% (24%) of Coalition Party supporters and 10% (15%) of Centre Party supporters.

A total of 13% (11% in 2018) had no opinion, 19% (14%) of women and eight per cent (22%) of men.

Why Finland should or should not be militarily defended in all situations, even if the result seems uncertain? In this survey, we asked those who responded to the question on the defence will to justify their position. Each person could give, in his or her own words, a maxi- mum of three reasons in their answer.

Independence, freedom and one’s own country were important reasons for defending Finland The respondents gave a total of over 1,000 reasons. While independence, patrio- tism, own country, freedom and duty were most often mentioned as reasons to de- fend the country it was also noted that Finland is a good country worth defending.

We should find better solutions to problems than guns The respondents to the question of the will to defend the country gave over 350 reasons for their answer in the negative. The preference for diplomacy and negotiations as well as the loss of life were highlighted in the answers. Nuclear weapons, the small size of Finland and the powerlessness to prepare were also brought up. (Figures 1 and 2)

13 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Personal will to defend the country remains very strong

Questions: When asked ‘Would you be ready to take part in national defence duties to the best of your abilities?’ eighty-five per cent (84% in 2018) answered in the affirmative; 88% (89%) of men and 82% (80%) of women.

There are not great differences between age groups on this issue: those aged 25–34 gave the most positive responses, 88% (86% in 2018) while 83% (85%) of those aged over 50, 84% (75%) of those aged under 25 and 87% (88%) of those aged 35– 49 answered in the affirmative. (Figures 3 and 4)

Support for the current conscription system increased

Seventy-seven per cent (74% in 2018) of the respondents support maintaining the current defence appropriations, with 81% of men (72%) and 73% of women (75%) expressing this opinion. Eighty-two per cent (84%) of those over 50 years of age think this way; 80% (56%) of those under 25; 72% (58%) of those 25 to 34 years of age; and 67% (75%) of those 35 to 49 years of age.

14 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figures 5A and 5B General conscription Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group re- ceives military training and the number of those in the reserve is reduced? Or should we change over to a smaller, professional army? Retain the current system Whole population Women Men 100

90

80

%

70

60

50

Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018Autumn 2019

Retain the current system Whole population Under 25 years 25–34 years 100

90

80

%

70

60

50

Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017Autumn 2018Autumn 2019

ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

15 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Eighty-seven per cent (91% in 2018) of Centre Party supporters are in favour of the current system, as are 85% (77%) of Coalition Party supporters, 84% (81%) of Finns Party supporters, 73% (81%) of SDP supporters, 63% (51%) of Green Party supporters and 48% (55%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Eleven per cent (13% in 2018) are in favour of changing over to a selective conscript service, 12% (12%) of women and 11% (13%) of men. Of Left Alliance supporters, 33% (21%) think this way while 20% (28%) of Green Party supporters, 14% (15%) of SDP supporters; 9% (12%) of Coalition Party supporters, 5% (7%) of Finns Party supporters; and 4% (3%) of Centre Party supporters agree.

A total of nine per cent (9% in 2018) were in favour of a professional army, with 12% (8%) of women and 7% (11%) of men expressing this view. (Figures 5 and 6)

Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system

Two out of three, 65% (59% in 2018) consider that Finland's defence system should be based on the current practice of general military service for men and voluntary military service for women. Sixty-seven per cent of men (61%) and 62% of women (57%) share this view.

Seventy-one per cent of respondents over 50 years of age (69% in 2018) hold this view, along with 64% (45%) of under 25-year-olds, 61% (60%) of 35–49-year-olds and 55% (45%) of 25-34-year-olds.

Seventy-four per cent (82% in 2018) of Centre Party supporters are in favour of the current conscription system, as are 73% (66%) of Coalition Party supporters, 70% (60%) of Finns Party supporters, 68% (70%) of SDP supporters, 50% (47%) of Green Party supporters and 35% (34%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Fifteen per cent (17% in 2018) of respondents, or 17 per cent (16%) of men and 13% (18%) of women, support conscription for men and women. This view was held by 19 per cent of Left Alliance supporters (34%), 18% (11%) of SDP supporters, 17% (16%) of Green Party supporters, 15% (15%) of Coalition Party supporters, and 13% (12% and 12%) of Centre Party and Finns Party supporters.

16 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Twelve per cent (13% in 2018) of respondents, or 15% (14%) of women and 10% (12%) of men, support conscription for men and women on a voluntary basis. Of Left Alliance supporters, 33% (21%) are in favour of this view, as are 23% (21%) of Green Party supporters, 8% (9%) of Coalition Party supporters, 7% (15%) of Finns Party supporters, and 5% (16% and 1% respectively) of SDP and Centre Party supporters.

Six per cent (8% in 2018) think that Finland’s defence should be based on a professional army, or 8% (6%) of women and 5% (10%) of men. (Figure 7)

Support for general civic service decreased

Just under half, 48% (55% in 2018) welcome the transition to general civic service for both men and women in Finland. This view was expressed by 52 per cent (56%) of men and 44 per cent (53%) of women. Among the 25-34-year-olds, 59% (53%) take the most positive view while 48% (54%) of the over 50-year-olds, 45 (53%) of the 35-49-year-olds and 43% (61%) of the under 25-year-olds also view this idea favourably.

Fifty-seven per cent (64% in 2018) of the Green Party supporters are in favour of general civic service, as are 54 per cent (52%) of the Coalition Party supporters, 50 per cent (52%) of the Centre Party supporters, 49 per cent (55%) of the SDP supporters, 44 per cent (58%) of the Left Alliance supporters and 40 per cent (64%) of the Finns Party supporters.

A total of 39 per cent (32% in 2018) of respondents answered the question in the negative; 41 per cent (32%) of women and 37 per cent (32%) of men. A total of 52 per cent (33%) of the Finns Party supporters expressed negative views, along with 45 per cent (36%) of the Left Alliance supporters, 39 per cent (37%) of the Coalition Party supporters, 35 per cent (35%) of the Centre Party supporters, 34 per cent (30%) of the Green Party supporters and 33 per cent (31%) of the SDP supporters.

Thirteen percent (13% in 2018) have no opinion; 15% (14%) of women and 11% (12%) of men. (Figure 8)

17 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Confidence in the management of foreign policy is strong

Seventy-two per cent of the respondents (70% in 2018) think that Finnish foreign policy is managed well, with 74 per cent (75%) of men and 71 per cent (66%) of women taking this view. Seventy-nine per cent (77%) of those over 50 years of age feel this way, as do 68 per cent (70%) of those between 35 and 49, 69 per cent (59%) of those between 25 and 34 and 64 per cent (66%) of respondents under 25 years.

Of the supporters of the Coalition Party, 89 per cent (83% in 2018) think that Finnish foreign policy is well managed; 81 per cent (81%) of the SDP supporters; 76 per cent (67%) of the Green Party supporters; 74 per cent (81%) of the Centre Party supporters; 71 per cent (51%) of the Left Alliance supporters; and 66 per cent (59%) of the Finns Party supporters agree.

A fifth, 19% (21% in 2018), regards foreign policy as poorly managed. This view was held by 20 per cent (21%) of women and 19 per cent (20%) of men.

Of the supporters of the Finns Party, 28% (35% in 2018) think that Finnish foreign policy is poorly managed as do 21 (35%) of Left Alliance supporters; 14% of SDP and Green Party supporters (17% and 17%); 18% (18%) of Centre Party supporters; and 11% (11%) of Coalition Party supporters.

A total of eight per cent (9% in 2018) of respondents, or 10 per cent (13%) of women and six per cent (4%) of men, had no opinion. (Figures 9 and 10)

Support for military alignment strengthened

A little more than a fourth of respondents, or 28% (25% in 2018) feel that Finland should seek military alignment, with 35% (27%) of men and 21% (22%) of women responding in the affirmative. Thirty-four per cent (24%) of those between 25 and 34 feel this way, as do 33% (23%) of those between 35 and 49, 25% (36%) of those under 25 and 24% (22%) of respondents over 50 years old.

Fifty-five per cent (35% in 2018) of Coalition Party supporters are in favour of military alignment, as are 38% (25%) of Finns Party supporters, 23% (38%) of

18 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Green Party supporters, 22% (24%) of Centre Party supporters, 20% (18%) of SDP supporters and 14% (16%) of Left Alliance supporters.

More than half of the respondents, or 57% (58% in 2018) support Finland’s military non-alignment; 57% (63%) of men and 58% (54%) of women. Forty-five per cent (53%) of those between 25 and 34 feel this way, as do 50% (63%) of those between 35 and 49, 53% (42%) of those under 25 and 66% (63%) of respondents over 50.

Of the supporters of the Left Alliance, 75% (67% in 2018) are in favour of military non-alignment as are 69% (71%) of SDP supporters, 66% (69%) of Centre Party supporters, 60% (41%) of Green Party supporters, 55% (54%) of Finns Party supporters; and 37% (50%) of Coalition Party supporters agree.

Fifteen percent (17% in 2018) have no opinion; 21% (24%) of women and 9% (10%) of men. (Figures 11 and 12)

Proportion of those who have a negative attitude towards NATO membership increased

Two thirds, 64% (59% in 2018) believe that Finland should not seek membership of NATO. This view was expressed by 67 per cent (62%) of men and 61 per cent (56%) of women.

Eighty-eight per cent (78% in 2018) of Left Alliance supporters answered in the negative, as did 77% (65%) of SDP supporters, 73% (73%) of Centre Party supporters, 66% (61%) of Finns Party supporters, 65% (48%) of Green Party supporters and 38% (43%) of Coalition Party supporters.

One fifth of respondents, or 20% (20% in 2017) feel that Finland should seek NATO membership, with 24% (25%) of men and 17% (16%) of women responding in the affirmative.

Of the supporters of the Coalition Party, 46% (37% in 2018) support membership in NATO as do 25% (19%) of Finns Party supporters; 18% (17%) of Centre Party supporters; 15% (23%) of Green Party supporters; 13% (23%) of SDP supporters; and 7% (6%) of Left Alliance supporters agree.

19 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Sixteen percent (21% in 2018) have no opinion; 22% (28%) of women and 10% (13%) of men. (Figures 13 and 14)

General feeling of insecurity increased

Around half of respondents, or 53% (49% in 2018), believe that Finland and Finns will be living in a more insecure world over the next five years when compared to today. This view was held by 57% (56%) of women and 50% (42%) of men.

Sixty-two per cent (54% in 2018) of 35-49-year-olds feel less secure about the future, as do 58% (48%) of 25-34-year-olds, 50% (52%) of over 50-year-olds and 44% (33%) of under 25-year-olds.

Just under one third of respondents, or 30% (31% in 2018) saw no difference compared to the present, with 32% of men (35%) and 29% of women (27%) giving this response.

Fourteen per cent (18% in 2018) of the respondents believe in a more secure future; 16% (20%) of men and 13% (15%) of women. (Figures 15 and 16)

Membership in the European Union has strengthened Finland’s security

For the seventh time, ABDI asked about the impact of the European Union, the UN, the OSCE, NATO, the United States, China and Russia on Finland's security.

Estimated by 69% (65% in 2018), membership in the European Union has a positive impact on Finland's security. According to 14% (14%), the EU has no impact on Finland's security, and 3% consider the impact negative (5%). Twelve per cent (12%) consider it to have both a negative and positive impact.

The UN's impact on Finland's security is seen as positive by 63% (64% in 2018), a fifth or 20% (19%) see no impact by the UN, 8% (8%) see the impact as both positive and negative, and negative by 2% (1%).

20 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Forty-one per cent (47% in 2018) think that the OSCE has a positive impact on Finland’s security, 24% (21%) see no impact and 6% (10%) see the impact as both positive and negative. Twenty-eight per cent (22%) had no opinion.

Twenty-eight percent (26% in 2018) regard NATO as having a negative impact on Finland’s security while 25% (24%) regard its impact as positive. Twenty-one per cent (26%) regard it to have both a negative and positive impact. Thirteen per cent (13%) do not see NATO as having any impact on Finland's security.

Seventeen per cent (18% in 2018) of the respondents see the impact of the United States as positive while 29% (27%) see it as negative; 28% (32%) see it as both positive and negative. One fifth, 19% (14%) do not see any impact.

Twelve per cent (13% in 2018) of the respondents see the impact of Russia as positive while 39% (39%) see it as negative; 28% (30%) see it as both positive and negative. Thirteen per cent (11%) think that Russia has no impact on Finland’s security.

Six per cent (12% in 2018) see the impact of China on Finnish security as positive while 25% (16%) regard it as negative, 18% (21%) see the impact as both positive and negative, and 39% (35%) see no impact. (17 and 18)

Confidence over the future of the European Union remains unchanged

Two-thirds or 65% (58% in 2018) of the respondents have retained their confidence in the future of the European Union; 64% (57%) of men and 67% (60%) of women.

Of the supporters of the Centre Party, 78% (65% in 2018) believe that confidence in the European Union has remained unchanged while 75% of Green Party supporters (69%), 74% (62%) of Coalition Party supporters, 64% of SDP and Left Alliance supporters (66% and 48%), and 48% (37%) of Finns Party supporters hold this view.

21 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Less than one third, 30% (34% in 2018) estimated that their confidence has deteriorated; this view was held by both men and women. A total of 48 per cent (53%) of Finns Party supporters share this view, along with 34% (44%) of Left Alliance supporters, 32% (29%) of SDP supporters, 20% (32%) of Coalition Party supporters, 18% (32%) of Centre Party supporters and 17% (25%) of Green Party supporters.

Three per cent feel that their confidence has strengthened (4% in 2018). (Figure 19)

Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries and the European Union is seen as increasing Finland's security the most

Since 2004, ABDI has asked about the impact of different phenomena and factors on Finland's security. There are eight different factors involved in this survey.

Factors that are believed to improve security are the following:

Finland's participation in Nordic defence cooperation: 80% (81% in 2018) think that this increases security; 14% (12%) think that it does not impact Finland's security; 2% (1%) think that it reduces security.

Finland's participation in developing the EU defence cooperation: 69% (72% in 2018) think that it increases security; 20% (17%) think that it does not impact Finland's security; 5% (4%) think that it reduces security.

Finland’s membership in the European union: 65% (62% in 2018) believe that it increases security; 24% (25%) believe that it has no impact on Finland’s security; 8% (9%) believe that it reduces Finland’s security.

Finland’s increasing international economic interaction: 51% (59% in 2018) believe that it increases security; 36% (29%) believe it has no impact on Finland’s security; 8% (6%) believe it reduces security.

22 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Finland’s participation in international crisis management duties: 50% (50% in 2018) think that it increases security; 36% (34%) think that it has no impact; 8% (10%) think that it reduces security.

Finland’s military non-alignment: 45% (46% in 2018) feel that it increases security; 27% (25%) feel that it has no impact; 17% (17%) feel it reduces security.

Finland’s possible membership in NATO: 27% (25% in 2018) say it would increase security; 17% (19%) say it would have no impact; 41% (40%) say it would reduce security.

Increasing share of foreign ownership in the Finnish economy: 7% (8% in 2018) say it increases security; 28% (22%) say it has no impact; 57% (62%) say it reduces security. (Figures 20–23)

Increased confidence in the management of defence policy

Four out of five, or 80% (75% in 2018) consider Finland's defence policy well managed. This view was expressed by 82% (78%) of men and 77% (73%) of women.

Of the supporters of the SDP and Centre Party, 84% (85% and 93% respectively in 2018) think that Finnish foreign policy is well managed; 83% (67%) of Green Party supporters; 82% (61%) of Finns Party supporters; 81% (85%) of Coalition Party supporters; and 67% (50%) of Left Alliance supporters agree.

Twelve per cent (14% in 2018) of the respondents consider that Finland’s defence policy is poorly managed; 13% (16%) of men and 10% (11%) of women.

Of the supporters of the Coalition Party, 15% (7% in 2018) think that Finnish foreign policy is poorly managed; 14% of Centre Party and Left Alliance supporters (13% and 28% respectively); 12% of Finns Party supporters (27%); 10% (11%) of Green Party supporters; and 9% of SDP supporters (10%) agree. (Figures 24 and 25)

23 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Strong support for Finland’s military cooperation

Ninety-six per cent (94% in 2018) of the respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with Sweden and 94% (95%) view favourably military cooperation with all the Nordic countries.

Eighty-eight percent take a positive view on military cooperation in the European Union (90% in 2018).

Fifty-seven per cent (55% in 2018) of the respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with NATO while 34% (35%) have a negative view.

Fifty-two percent (55% in 2018) of the respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with the United States while 42% (36%) are opposed to it. (Figures 26–31)

Military situation in Finland’s neighbouring areas is expected to remain the same

Fifty-one per cent (48% in 2018) estimate that the military situation in Finland's neighbouring areas will remain as it currently is in the next ten years. Fifty-four per cent of men (52%) and 48% of women (45%) share this view.

Seventy per cent (47% in 2017) of Centre Party supporters answered this question in the affirmative, as did 63% (59%) of SDP supporters;54% (48%) of Green Party supporters; 51% (54%) of Coalition Party supporters; 48% (37%) of Left Alliance supporters; and 31% (53%) of Finns Party supporters.

Forty-two per cent of the respondents (41% in 2018), or 46% (47%) of women and 38% (35%) of men, feel that the situation may become more threatening over the next ten years.

A total of 63% (37%) of Finns Party supporters expressed negative views, along with 42% of Coalition Party and Left Alliance supporters (41% and 52% respectively); 40% (40%) of Green Party supporters; 30% (33%) of SDP supporters; and 26% (44%) of Centre Party supporters.

24 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Four per cent of respondents (6% in 2018), or 2% (4%) of women and 6% (9%) of men, see the situation as less threatening. (Figures 32 and 33)

Support for the current level and increase of defence appropriations

Less than half, or 46% (40% in 2018), are of the opinion that defence appropriations must remain unchanged. Forty-eight percent of women (46%) and 45% of men (34%) share this view.

This view was supported by 51% of Green Party supporters (45% in 2018); 47% (53%) of Centre Party supporters; 46% (47%) of SDP supporters; 45% (37%) of Coalition Party supporters; 44% (35%) of Left Alliance supporters; and 40% (21%) of Finns Party supporters agree.

A third, or 34% (40% in 2018) of the respondents support increasing defence appropriations, with 42% of men (48%) and 27% of women (34%) expressing this opinion.

Fifty-one per cent (49% in 2018) of Coalition Party supporters are in favour of increasing defence appropriations, as are 49% (61%) of Finns Party supporters; 35% (45%) of Centre Party supporters; 32% (41%) of SDP supporters; 24% (28%) of Green Party supporters; and 16% (20%) of Left Alliance supporters.

Thirteen per cent (12% in 2018) are in favour of cutting defence appropriations; 15% (9%) of women and 11% (15%) of men.

Thirty-six per cent (33% in 2018) of Left Alliance supporters are in favour of cutting defence appropriations, as were 17% (22%) of Green Party supporters; 14% (6%) of SDP supporters; 11% (2%) of Centre Party supporters; 7% (10%) of Finns Party supporters; 4% (10%) of Coalition Party supporters. (Figures 34 and 35)

25 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Support for export of defence materiel with current regulations

Just under half of respondents, or 46% (49% in 2018), think that the export of defence materiel should continue in line with the current practices and regulations. Fifty-three per cent of men (59%) and 38% of women (38%) share this view.

One third, or 33% (31% in 2018), think that the export licence process for defence materiel should be tightened; 40% (39%) of women and 27% (23%) of men.

Six per cent (5% in 2018) believe that exports of defence materiel should be allowed everywhere. Five per cent (6% in 2018) would ban exports of military equipment altogether. (Figure 36)

Decreased concern

Since 2004, ABDI has asked to what extent different phenomena and factors cause concern for the future. In this survey, 18 different factors were included, two of which are completely new, the dissolution of arms control agreements and organised crime.

It can be noted that compared to last year there has been a decline in concern in almost all factors. Concern for climate change and concern for development in the European Union, 14 percentage points, has decreased most.

Factors causing much or some concern:

− The world’s refugee situation 82% (87% in 2018); − International terrorism 81% (88% in 2018); − Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 75% (82% in 2018); − Climate change 75% (89% in 2018); − Political extremist movements 75% (82% in 2018); − Organised crime 75% (new item) − Cyber threats 71% (79% in 2018); − Situation in the Middle East 71% (77% in 2018);

26 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

− Dissolution of arms control agreements 69% (new item) − Social inequality in Finland 65% (76% in 2018); − Employment situation in Finland 64% (71% in 2018); − Security situation in the Baltic Sea area 63% (76% in 2018); − Developments in the United States 62% (72% in 2018); − Racism 61% (78% in 2018); − Development in Russia 59% (71% in 2018); − State-sponsored fake news against Finland 49% (62% in 2018); − Situation in Ukraine 44% (43% in 2017); − Development in the European Union 42% (56% in 2018)

(Figures 36–41)

Preparedness for various threats is felt to have improved

The question includes 12 different threats and the respondents assess the level of preparedness for them. For almost all of them, it was estimated that we are now better prepared than in 2017, when the question was last polled.

Assessing whether preparedness for a threat is very good or rather good gave the following results:

− Contagious diseases, epidemics, 88% (84% in 2017); − Major accidents 86% (80% in 2017); − Armed attack 83% (76% in 2017); − Various environmental threats 81% (79% in 2017); − Availability of energy 71% (74% in 2017); − Terrorism 62% (53% in 2017) − Climate change 60% (61% in 2017); − International crime 58% (49% in 2017); − Political pressure from abroad 57% (55% in 2017); − Cyber attacks 57% (50% in 2017); − Economic pressure from abroad 49% (49% in 2017); − Economic crisis 42% (42% in 2017))

(Figures 42–45)

27 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Research Branch of ABDI in 2019–2023

Chair: Ilkka Kanerva, Member of Parliament Vice-Chair: Timo Perälä, Senior Inspector Members: Niclas von Bonsdorff, Director of Public Affairs, LtCol Outi Hyvärinen, Counsellor at the Embassy Johanna Kelhu, Parliamentary Secretary, MSocSc Anni Lahtinen, Secretary General Olli Nyberg, Executive Director Helena Pakarinen, Political Secretary Kari Salmi, Brigadier General (ret.) Jussi Salonranta, Analyst Marika Sorja, Assistant to Member of Parliament Reija Taupila, producer Samuli Voutila, entrepreneur Tuula Väätäinen, Member of Parliament

Chairs of ABDI 2019–2023

Chair Harri Järvinen, Communications Manager Vice-Chair Asseri Kinnunen, Chair of the Youth League Vice-Chair Sofia Vikman, Member of Parliament

Secretariat of ABDI

Secretary General Heli Santala General Secretary Markus Kinkku

28 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 1. The will to defend the nation

If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain? Yes Cannot say No

Whole population 68 13 19

Women 58 19 24 Men 78 8 15

Under 25 years 56 22 22 25–34 years 66 14 20 35–49 years 64 14 23 50–79 years 74 10 16

Lower education 72 13 16 Post-secondary 68 15 18 University 62 13 26

Under 25 000 € 61 18 21 25 000–35 000 € 64 15 21 Over 35 000 € 73 9 18

South Finland 67 12 21 West Finland 64 16 19 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 75 11 14

Social Democratic P. 63 15 22 The Finns 76 6 17 Coalition Party 81 4 15 Centre Party 82 8 10 Green League 60 16 23 Left Alliance 46 19 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

29 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 2. The will to defend the nation If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain? Yes Cannot say No Autumn 2019 68 13 19 Autumn 2018 66 11 23 Autumn 2017 72 6 22 Autumn 2016 71 8 21 Autumn 2015 78 5 16 Autumn 2014 76 5 19 Autumn 2013 71 4 25 Autumn 2012 76 5 19 Autumn 2011 76 6 18 Autumn 2010 74 6 20 Autumn 2009 74 4 22 Autumn 2008 72 6 22 Autumn 2007 77 4 19 Autumn 2006 77 3 20 Autumn 2005 77 5 17 Autumn 2004 80 2 18 Autumn 2003 73 6 22 Autumn 2002 78 6 17 Autumn 2001 79 5 16 December 2000 81 4 14 November 1999 75 7 18 June 1999 75 7 18 October 1998 77 5 18 June 1998 76 6 18 In the year 1997 76 4 20 In the year 1996 79 5 15 In the year 1995 80 5 15 In the year 1994 77 7 17 In the year 1993 75 6 19 In the year 1992 77 7 16 October 1991 70 5 25 April 1991 75 7 19 In the year 1990 74 7 19 In the year 1989 67 13 20 In the year 1988 61 11 28 In the year 1987 73 6 21 In the year 1986 68 8 24 In the year 1982 67 8 25 In the year 1971 43 12 45 In the year 1970 42 7 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

30 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 3. The will to defend the country (personal level) If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills? Yes Cannot say No

Whole population 85 4 11

Women 82 5 13 Men 88 2 10

Under 25 years 84 6 11 25–34 years 88 5 7 35–49 years 87 5 8 50–79 years 83 2 15

Lower education 81 4 15 Post-secondary 89 3 8 University 88 3 9

Under 25 000 € 79 5 16 25 000–35 000 € 88 2 10 Over 35 000 € 89 2 9

South Finland 86 4 11 West Finland 84 4 13 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 84 4 12

Social Democratic P. 84 5 11 The Finns 84 5 12 Coalition Party 99 0 1 Centre Party 85 3 12 Green League 88 4 8 Left Alliance 70 4 26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

31 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 4. The will to defend the country (personal level) If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills? Yes Cannot say No

Autumn 2019 85 4 11 Autumn 2018 84 6 10 Autumn 2017 87 3 10 Autumn 2015 87 3 11 Autumn 2014 84 3 12 Autumn 2013 85 3 12 Autumn 2012 87 3 10 October 1998 85 5 10 In the year 1997 84 4 12 In the year 1996 82 3 14 November 1995 86 5 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

32 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 5. General conscription Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army? Retain the Reduce selectively the number of Cannot Abolish general conscription and current system those receiving military training say change over to a professional army

Whole population 77 11 2 9

Women 73 12 3 12 Men 81 11 2 7

Under 25 years 80 10 1 9 25–34 years 72 13 3 12 35–49 years 67 15 4 14 50–79 years 82 10 2 6

Lower education 81 8 3 9 Post-secondary 81 8 2 9 University 66 19 3 11

Under 25 000 € 74 11 3 11 25 000–35 000 € 74 12 3 11 Over 35 000 € 77 13 2 9

South Finland 72 15 3 10 West Finland 78 11 2 9 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 84 5 3 8

Social Democratic P. 73 14 3 10 The Finns 84 5 2 10 Coalition Party 85 9 1 4 Centre Party 87 4 4 6 Green League 63 20 2 15 Left Alliance 48 33 3 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

33 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 6. General conscription Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army? Retain the Reduce selectively the number of Cannot Abolish general conscription and current system those receiving military training say change over to a professional army Autumn 2019 77 11 2 9 Autumn 2018 74 13 4 9 Autumn 2017 81 9 1 9 Autumn 2016 79 11 1 9 Autumn 2015 75 13 2 10 Autumn 2014 75 11 2 12 Autumn 2013 68 20 1 11 Autumn 2012 72 17 2 9 Autumn 2011 63 26 2 9 Autumn 2010 63 27 1 9 Autumn 2009 72 16 1 11 Autumn 2008 74 15 1 10 Autumn 2007 73 17 1 9 Autumn 2006 71 19 1 9 Autumn 2005 78 13 1 8 Autumn 2004 77 15 0 7 Autumn 2003 79 11 2 8 Autumn 2002 80 9 2 8 Autumn 2001 79 13 1 7 Spring 2001 76 13 3 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

34 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 7. Finland's defence system In your view, should Finlands defence system be based on...

The current system with general conscription for General conscription for Voluntary military service A professional Cannot men and voluntary military both men and women for both men and women army say service for women Autumn 2019 65 15 12 6 2 Autumn 2018 59 17 13 8 3 Autumn 2017 65 16 11 7 1 Autumn 2016 69 11 14 6 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % The current system with general conscription for General conscription for Voluntary military service A professional Cannot men and voluntary military both men and women for both men and women army say service for women Whole population 65 15 12 6 2

Women 62 13 15 8 2 Men 67 17 10 5 1

Under 25 years 64 14 19 2 1 25–34 years 55 18 15 10 3 35–49 years 61 13 16 9 2 50–79 years 71 15 7 5 1

Lower education 67 14 11 6 2 Post-secondary 73 12 9 5 1 University 56 19 16 7 2

Under 25 000 € 60 15 13 10 3 25 000–35 000 € 64 15 13 8 0 Over 35 000 € 66 16 11 6 1

South Finland 60 17 15 6 2 West Finland 72 9 10 8 1 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 67 18 8 5 2

Social Democratic P. 68 18 5 8 1 The Finns 70 13 7 7 2 Coalition Party 73 15 8 5 0 Centre Party 74 13 5 5 3 Green League 50 17 23 9 2 Left Alliance 35 19 33 12 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

35 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 8. General civic service Finland is instituting a general civic service for both men and women. he civic service could be completed as military or non-military service Positive Cannot say Negative

Autumn 2019 48 13 39 Autumn 2018 55 13 32 Autumn 2010 45 3 52 Autumn 2008 42 8 51

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

Positive Cannot say Negative

Whole population 48 13 39

Women 44 15 41 Men 52 11 37

Under 25 years 43 15 42 25–34 years 59 12 29 35–49 years 45 12 43 50–79 years 48 14 38

Lower education 48 10 42 Post-secondary 40 21 39 University 56 12 33

Under 25 000 € 47 16 38 25 000–35 000 € 50 16 34 Over 35 000 € 48 10 42

South Finland 51 13 36 West Finland 44 16 40 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 48 8 43

Social Democratic P. 49 18 33 The Finns 40 8 52 Coalition Party 54 7 39 Centre Party 50 15 35 Green League 57 10 34 Left Alliance 44 10 45 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

36 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 9. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted in recent years? Extremely Fairly Cannot Fairly Extremely well well say poorly poorly

Whole population 9 63 8 17 2

Women 6 65 10 18 2 Men 12 62 6 17 2

Under 25 years 3 61 15 21 1 25–34 years 5 64 10 19 2 35–49 years 11 57 12 19 1 50–79 years 12 67 4 15 2

Lower education 9 58 11 20 2 Post-secondary 7 70 7 14 2 University 11 67 5 15 2

Under 25 000 € 7 58 11 21 3 25 000–35 000 € 8 61 3 24 4 Over 35 000 € 11 67 7 14 1

South Finland 8 61 8 21 3 West Finland 11 63 9 16 2 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 10 70 8 12 1

Social Democratic P. 5 76 5 12 2 The Finns 15 51 6 24 4 Coalition Party 9 80 1 10 1 Centre Party 13 61 8 18 0 Green League 10 66 11 12 2 Left Alliance 9 62 8 18 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

37 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 10. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted in recent years? Well Cannot say Poorly

Autumn 2019 72 8 19 Autumn 2018 70 9 21 Autumn 2017 73 7 20 Autumn 2016 70 6 24 Autumn 2015 63 5 32 Autumn 2014 70 5 25 Autumn 2013 73 4 23 Autumn 2012 75 5 21 Autumn 2011 76 5 19 Autumn 2010 80 5 15 Autumn 2009 81 4 16 Autumn 2008 79 5 16 Autumn 2007 84 3 13 Autumn 2006 81 5 14 Autumn 2005 82 4 13 Autumn 2004 84 2 14 Autumn 2003 86 4 11 Autumn 2002 79 6 14 Autumn 2001 87 3 10 Spring 2001 89 4 7 December 2000 81 6 13 July 2000 89 2 9 November 1999 85 5 10 June 1999 88 4 9 October 1998 77 7 16 In the year 1997 72 6 21 In the year 1996 71 8 20 November 1995 73 6 22 June 1995 87 1 13 In the year 1994 78 4 18 In the year 1993 73 6 21 In the year 1992 73 4 24 In the year 1991 62 5 33 November 1990 79 6 14 May 1990 67 9 23 In the year 1989 75 7 18 In the year 1988 85 7 8 In the year 1987 90 6 5 December 1986 91 4 5 January 1986 93 3 4 In the year 1984 95 3 4 In the year 1983 94 4 2 In the year 1982 93 3 5 In the year 1981 93 3 4 In the year 1980 87 6 7 In the year 1979 86 8 6 In the year 1978 84 10 6 In the year 1975 85 6 9 In the year 1974 85 7 8 In the year 1973 87 7 6 In the year 1972 86 7 7 In the year 1971 96 2 2 In the year 1970 95 1 4 In the year 1969 87 5 8 In the year 1964 90 5 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

38 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 11. Military alignment or non-alignment In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily non-aligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily? Remain non-aligned Cannot say Aim to ally itself

Whole population 57 15 28

Women 58 21 21 Men 57 9 35

Under 25 years 53 21 25 25–34 years 45 20 34 35–49 years 50 16 33 50–79 years 66 10 24

Lower education 57 15 28 Post-secondary 55 18 27 University 60 11 29

Under 25 000 € 57 16 27 25 000–35 000 € 58 17 25 Over 35 000 € 57 11 32

South Finland 58 13 30 West Finland 52 18 30 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 64 14 21

Social Democratic P. 69 11 20 The Finns 55 7 38 Coalition Party 37 9 55 Centre Party 66 12 22 Green League 60 17 23 Left Alliance 75 12 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

39 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 12. Military alignment or non-alignment In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily non-aligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily? Remain non-aligned Cannot say Aim to ally itself

Autumn 2019 57 15 28 Autumn 2018 58 17 25 Autumn 2017 58 12 29 Autumn 2016 57 12 31 Autumn 2015 54 12 33 Autumn 2014 58 8 34 Autumn 2013 67 8 25 Autumn 2012 68 7 25 Autumn 2011 69 10 21 Autumn 2010 67 6 27 Autumn 2009 61 8 31 Autumn 2008 58 11 31 Autumn 2007 69 3 27 Autumn 2006 67 7 26 Autumn 2005 58 9 32 Autumn 2004 61 5 34 Autumn 2003 65 11 24 Autumn 2002 70 8 22 Autumn 2001 79 5 16 Spring 2001 68 10 21 December 2000 66 9 25 July 2000 71 8 20 November 1999 68 11 21 June 1999 74 8 18 October 1998 60 11 29 June 1998 64 10 27 In the year 1997 67 8 25 In the year 1996 69 11 20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

40 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 13. Nato membership In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in ato? Yes Cannot say No

Whole population 20 16 64

Women 17 22 61 Men 24 10 67

Under 25 years 11 22 67 25–34 years 17 27 56 35–49 years 30 16 54 50–79 years 19 10 71

Lower education 19 15 66 Post-secondary 20 20 60 University 22 14 64

Under 25 000 € 21 19 60 25 000–35 000 € 15 20 66 Over 35 000 € 24 12 65

South Finland 19 16 64 West Finland 25 17 58 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 15 15 70

Social Democratic P. 13 10 77 The Finns 25 10 66 Coalition Party 46 16 38 Centre Party 18 9 73 Green League 15 20 65 Left Alliance 7 6 88

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

41 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 14. Nato membership In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in ato? Yes Cannot say No

Autumn 2019 20 16 64 Autumn 2018 20 21 59 Autumn 2017 22 17 62 Autumn 2016 25 14 61 Autumn 2015 27 15 58 Autumn 2014 30 10 60 Autumn 2013 21 10 70 Autumn 2012 18 10 71 Autumn 2011 20 10 70 Autumn 2010 25 7 68 Autumn 2009 28 10 62 Autumn 2008 28 12 60 Autumn 2007 26 5 69 Autumn 2006 26 10 65 Autumn 2005 28 9 63

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

42 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 15. A more secure or more insecure future "Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world compared to the present?" No di erence Safer to the present Cannot say Less safe

Whole population 14 30 2 53

Women 13 29 2 57 Men 16 32 3 50

Under 25 years 18 36 1 44 25–34 years 11 23 7 58 35–49 years 10 26 2 62 50–79 years 17 33 1 50

Lower education 17 28 3 52 Post-secondary 13 32 1 55 University 11 32 3 53

Under 25 000 € 14 36 4 46 25 000–35 000 € 19 30 0 51 Over 35 000 € 12 30 1 56

South Finland 18 28 2 52 West Finland 10 29 3 58 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 13 36 2 49

Social Democratic P. 17 35 6 42 The Finns 11 21 2 66 Coalition Party 13 25 3 59 Centre Party 15 33 2 51 Green League 16 34 3 48 Left Alliance 6 45 4 46 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

43 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 16. A more secure or more insecure future "Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world compared to the present?" No di erence Safer to the present Cannot say Less safe Autumn 2019 14 30 2 53 Autumn 2018 18 31 2 49 Autumn 2017 14 25 1 60 Autumn 2016 13 27 1 59 Autumn 2015 10 23 1 65 Autumn 2014 14 28 1 56 Autumn 2013 20 36 1 43 Autumn 2012 20 33 1 46 Autumn 2011 17 40 1 42 Autumn 2010 27 30 1 41 Autumn 2009 28 30 1 40 Autumn 2008 18 31 2 49 Autumn 2007 24 29 1 46 Autumn 2006 20 31 2 47 Autumn 2005 29 23 2 46 Autumn 2004 17 40 1 42 Autumn 2003 30 26 2 42 Autumn 2002 22 25 3 51 Spring 2001 26 24 3 46 In the year 2000 37 27 2 33 In the year 1999 19 36 2 42 In the year 1998 26 47 2 25 In the year 1997 28 30 2 39 In the year 1996 22 31 4 43 November 1995 22 26 4 48 June 1995 15 43 2 39 October 1994 23 27 5 44 May 1994 18 21 5 57 November 1993 16 31 7 46 April 1993 18 22 7 53 November 1992 15 28 5 52 April 1992 18 22 6 54 October 1991 28 16 5 51 May 1991 29 22 4 45 October 1990 18 25 5 52 May 1990 25 30 7 38 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

44 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 17. The impact of various factors on Finland's security ow do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finlands security?

Positive e ect No e ect Cannot say Negative e ect Both positive and negative e ects

The EU 69 14 3 3 12 The UN 63 20 6 2 8 OSCE 41 24 28 1 6 Nato 25 16 9 28 21 USA 17 19 7 29 28 Russia 12 13 6 39 29 China 6 39 12 25 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

45 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 18. The impact of various factors on Finland's security ow do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finlands security? Positive e ect No e ect Cannot say Negative e ect Both positive and negative e ects The EU Autumn 2019 69 14 3 3 12 Autumn 2018 65 14 5 5 12 Autumn 2017 60 16 3 7 13 Autumn 2016 58 21 3 5 13 Autumn 2010 57 15 2 7 19 Autumn 2009 69 13 2 4 12 Autumn 2008 60 13 2 6 20 Autumn 2007 59 15 1 5 20 The UN Autumn 2019 63 20 6 2 8 Autumn 2018 64 19 8 1 8 Autumn 2017 61 23 5 3 9 Autumn 2016 61 27 4 1 7 Autumn 2010 64 22 2 1 11 Autumn 2009 77 15 2 1 5 Autumn 2008 70 18 2 1 9 Autumn 2007 72 20 1 1 7 OSCE Autumn 2019 41 24 28 1 6 Autumn 2018 47 21 22 0 10 Autumn 2017 44 26 18 1 11 Autumn 2016 38 33 17 2 11 Autumn 2010 46 25 11 2 16 Autumn 2009 55 24 10 2 10 Autumn 2008 50 24 10 3 13 Autumn 2007 46 29 10 2 14 Nato Autumn 2019 25 16 9 28 21 Autumn 2018 24 13 12 26 26 Autumn 2017 24 13 8 25 30 Autumn 2016 26 19 7 25 24 Autumn 2010 21 26 5 21 28 Autumn 2009 28 21 6 22 22 Autumn 2008 23 16 6 32 22 Autumn 2007 23 22 3 28 23 USA Autumn 2019 17 19 7 29 28 Autumn 2018 18 14 8 27 32 Autumn 2017 16 21 5 22 35 Autumn 2016 21 26 5 19 28 Autumn 2010 14 33 3 17 33 Autumn 2009 25 32 4 11 28 Autumn 2008 7 35 3 22 33 Autumn 2007 11 33 3 23 31 Russia Autumn 2019 12 13 6 39 29 Autumn 2018 13 11 7 39 30 Autumn 2017 14 13 5 37 31 Autumn 2016 6 15 5 50 24 Autumn 2010 9 20 4 28 40 Autumn 2009 16 19 5 27 33 Autumn 2008 4 18 3 40 35 Autumn 2007 11 19 2 34 34 China Autumn 2019 6 39 12 25 18 Autumn 2018 12 35 15 16 21 Autumn 2017 13 44 10 11 22 Autumn 2016 8 55 10 10 17 Autumn 2010 7 54 6 11 22 Autumn 2009 10 54 8 11 18 Autumn 2008 6 51 7 14 22 Autumn 2007 9 50 5 14 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %

ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

46 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 19. Confidence in the future of the European Union "What kind of con dence do you have in the future of the European Union? In the last two years, has your con dence been strengthened, weakened or has it remained the same?" Strenghtened Remained the same Cannot say Weakened

Autumn 2019 3 65 2 30 Autumn 2018 4 58 3 34 Autumn 2017 3 58 1 37 Autumn 2016 2 45 2 52 Autumn 2005 8 53 1 39 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Strenghtened Remained the same Cannot say Weakened Whole population 3 65 2 30

Women 2 67 2 30 Men 5 64 1 30

Under 25 years 5 81 4 10 25–34 years 5 67 2 26 35–49 years 3 60 3 35 50–79 years 3 63 0 34

Lower education 3 63 2 32 Post-secondary 2 69 2 27 University 5 66 1 28

Under 25 000 € 4 63 3 30 25 000–35 000 € 1 55 1 43 Over 35 000 € 4 67 0 29

South Finland 4 64 1 31 West Finland 3 62 2 33 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 4 72 3 22

Social Democratic P. 3 64 1 32 The Finns 1 48 3 48 Coalition Party 6 74 0 20 Centre Party 2 78 2 18 Green League 6 75 1 17 Left Alliance 2 64 0 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

47 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 20. Factors affecting security "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?"

Increases security Has no e ect Cannot say Lessens security

Finland's participation in Nordic 80 14 4 2 defence cooperation

Finland participates in the common 69 20 6 5 defence of the EU

Finland’s membership in the EU 65 24 3 8

Finland’s economic cooperation 51 36 6 7 increases internationally

The participation of Finnish troops in 50 36 6 8 crisis-management tasks

Finland’s military non-alignment 45 27 11 17

Finland’s possible membership in Nato 27 17 16 41

Increase of foreign ownership 7 28 8 57 in Finland's economy

0 20 40 60 80 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

48 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 21. Factors affecting security (I) "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?"

Increases security Has no e ect Cannot say Lessens security Finland's participation in Nordic defence cooperation Autumn 2019 80 14 4 2 Autumn 2018 81 12 5 1 Autumn 2017 83 13 3 1 Autumn 2016 79 16 4 2 Autumn 2015 74 19 4 4 Autumn 2014 75 20 3 2 Autumn 2013 74 21 3 2 Autumn 2012 66 27 3 4 Finland participates in the common defence of the EU Autumn 2019 69 20 6 5 Autumn 2018 72 17 6 4 Autumn 2017 70 20 5 6 Autumn 2016 62 24 7 8 Autumn 2015 56 26 6 12 Autumn 2014 61 25 4 10 Autumn 2013 53 31 5 11 Autumn 2012 49 32 5 14 Autumn 2011 52 31 5 12 Autumn 2010 69 22 4 4 Autumn 2009 61 23 6 10 Autumn 2008 64 23 6 7 Autumn 2007 69 22 3 6 Autumn 2006 55 28 4 13 Autumn 2005 59 21 4 16 Autumn 2004 54 30 3 13 Finland’s membership in the EU Autumn 2019 65 24 3 8 Autumn 2018 62 25 4 9 Autumn 2017 62 25 2 11 Autumn 2016 54 33 2 11 Autumn 2015 50 35 3 11 Autumn 2014 54 37 2 7 Autumn 2013 47 42 2 9 Autumn 2012 45 41 2 12 Autumn 2011 53 34 2 10 Autumn 2010 71 22 2 5 Autumn 2009 58 34 3 5 Autumn 2008 63 29 3 6 Autumn 2007 60 33 1 6 Autumn 2006 49 35 2 13 Autumn 2005 56 33 2 9 Autumn 2004 52 36 1 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

49 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 22. Factors affecting security (II) "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?" Increases security Has no e ect Cannot say Lessens security Finland’s economic cooperation increases internationally Autumn 2019 51 36 6 7 Autumn 2018 59 29 6 6 Autumn 2017 52 37 5 6 Autumn 2016 48 39 5 7 Autumn 2015 45 40 5 9 Autumn 2014 45 40 6 9 Autumn 2013 39 46 5 10 Autumn 2012 36 48 6 10 Autumn 2011 39 40 5 16 Autumn 2010 52 37 5 6 Autumn 2009 40 45 6 9 Autumn 2008 49 37 7 7 Autumn 2007 48 41 4 7 Autumn 2006 43 42 4 11 Autumn 2005 38 44 6 12 Autumn 2004 37 47 4 13 The participation of Finnish troops in crisis-management tasks* Autumn 2019 50 36 6 8 Autumn 2018 50 34 7 10 Autumn 2017 51 36 3 9 Autumn 2016 46 40 4 10 Autumn 2015 40 41 4 14 Autumn 2014 41 44 4 11 Autumn 2013 35 49 3 13 Autumn 2012 16 53 4 27 Autumn 2011 17 46 5 31 Autumn 2010 22 40 6 32 Autumn 2009 21 42 5 33 Autumn 2008 23 46 7 24 Autumn 2007 25 45 4 26 Autumn 2006 26 48 3 24 Autumn 2005 24 39 5 32 Autumn 2004 20 46 2 32 Finland’s military non-alignment Autumn 2019 45 27 11 17 Autumn 2018 46 25 12 17 Autumn 2017 46 30 9 16 Autumn 2016 45 30 7 18 Autumn 2015 38 34 6 23 Autumn 2014 42 31 6 22 Autumn 2013 35 45 5 15 Autumn 2012 38 39 7 17 Autumn 2011 41 34 8 17 Autumn 2010 41 33 6 20 Autumn 2009 38 35 6 21 Autumn 2008 42 30 7 22 Autumn 2007 45 34 4 17 Autumn 2006 42 38 5 15 Autumn 2005 43 36 6 15 Autumn 2004 40 43 3 15 0 20 40 60 80 100 *) 2004–2012 The participation of Finnish troops in % crisis-management tasks in war zones

ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

50 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 23. Factors affecting security (III) "How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a ect the security of Finland and Finns?" Increases security Has no e ect Cannot say Lessens security Finland’s possible membership in Nato Autumn 2019 27 17 16 41 Autumn 2018 25 19 16 40 Autumn 2017 29 17 12 42 Autumn 2016 32 21 12 36 Autumn 2015 35 18 11 36 Autumn 2014 37 20 10 33 Autumn 2013 32 31 6 30 Autumn 2012 24 31 8 37 Autumn 2011 28 29 10 33 Autumn 2010 35 32 7 27 Autumn 2009 34 27 8 32 Autumn 2008 34 23 10 33 Autumn 2007 37 23 5 35 Autumn 2006 31 30 8 31 Autumn 2005 36 27 6 31 Autumn 2004 37 24 4 34 Increase of foreign ownership in Finland's economy Autumn 2019 7 28 8 57 Autumn 2018 8 22 8 62 Autumn 2017 8 37 6 49 Autumn 2016 7 45 7 41 Autumn 2015 7 42 5 46 Autumn 2014 7 34 5 54 Autumn 2012 5 38 4 53 Autumn 2011 8 36 5 51 Autumn 2010 9 37 5 49 Autumn 2009 5 35 5 56 Autumn 2008 8 33 6 53 Autumn 2007 14 38 3 45 Autumn 2006 11 41 5 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

51 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 24. The conduct of defence policy in Finland In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finland’s defence policy been conducted in recent years? Extremely well Fairly well Cannot say Fairly poorly Extremely poorly

Whole population 9 71 8 11 1

Women 8 69 13 10 0 Men 10 72 4 12 1

Under 25 years 5 77 8 10 0 25–34 years 4 70 15 10 1 35–49 years 7 63 10 19 2 50–79 years 13 73 6 7 1

Lower education 7 74 8 10 1 Post-secondary 11 69 7 13 0 University 10 66 10 12 2

Under 25 000 € 9 69 9 12 1 25 000–35 000 € 10 58 19 12 1 Over 35 000 € 9 73 6 11 1

South Finland 10 70 8 11 1 West Finland 6 70 11 12 1 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 11 73 6 9 1

Social Democratic P. 16 68 8 8 1 The Finns 9 73 6 11 1 Coalition Party 9 72 5 15 0 Centre Party 9 75 1 14 0 Green League 8 75 6 9 1 Left Alliance 3 64 19 12 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

52 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 25. The conduct of defence policy in Finland In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finland’s defence policy been conducted in recent years? Extremely well Fairly well Cannot say Fairly poorly Extremely poorly Autumn 2019 9 71 8 11 1 Autumn 2018 7 68 11 12 2 Autumn 2017 10 69 7 12 1 Autumn 2016 7 72 6 14 2 Autumn 2015 6 68 5 19 2 Autumn 2014 4 65 5 23 2 Autumn 2013 4 65 6 22 2 Autumn 2012 5 68 5 19 3 Autumn 2011 7 74 7 11 0 Autumn 2010 10 66 5 18 1 Autumn 2009 10 75 4 10 1 Autumn 2008 7 73 5 13 1 Autumn 2007 8 75 2 14 1 Autumn 2006 8 75 4 10 2 Autumn 2005 14 63 4 17 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

53 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 26. Military cooperation Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden, other ordic countries, ato and the uropean nion. hat is your view on cooperation? Very positive Rather positive Cannot say Rather negative Very negative With Sweden Autumn 2019 56 40 2 1 0 Autumn 2018 56 38 3 2 1 Autumn 2017 60 34 2 3 0 Autumn 2016 52 42 3 2 1 Autumn 2015 55 39 2 4 1 Autumn 2014 52 42 2 4 0 With all Nordic countries (Nordefco) Autumn 2019 52 42 3 3 0 Autumn 2018 53 42 3 2 1 Autumn 2017 55 39 2 3 0 Autumn 2016 50 44 3 2 0 Autumn 2015 50 44 2 4 0 Autumn 2014 48 46 2 4 0 Autumn 2013 47 46 2 3 1 Autumn 2012 40 51 2 5 1 In the European Union Autumn 2019 35 53 3 8 1 Autumn 2018 32 58 4 5 1 Autumn 2017 35 54 4 6 1 Autumn 2016 29 58 4 8 1 Autumn 2015 23 61 3 11 1 Autumn 2014 24 62 3 10 1 Autumn 2013 21 63 2 12 1 Autumn 2012 16 63 4 16 1 With Nato Autumn 2019 13 44 8 26 8 Autumn 2018 14 41 11 26 9 Autumn 2017 16 45 7 22 10 Autumn 2016 17 43 6 27 6 Autumn 2015 17 41 6 27 10 Autumn 2014 17 39 5 30 9 Autumn 2013 10 39 6 33 12 Autumn 2012 9 36 7 36 11 With the United States Autumn 2019 11 41 7 30 12 Autumn 2018 12 43 9 26 10 Autumn 2017 14 45 7 25 10 Autumn 2016 15 49 6 24 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

54 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 27. Military cooperation with Sweden Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden. hat is your view on cooperation? Very positive Rather positive Cannot say Rather negative Very negative

Whole population 56 40 2 1 0

Women 57 39 3 1 0 Men 55 41 2 2 1

Under 25 years 57 37 2 3 1 25–34 years 47 47 5 1 0 35–49 years 54 43 2 1 0 50–79 years 59 38 1 1 0

Lower education 47 48 3 2 0 Post-secondary 67 29 2 1 1 University 60 38 1 1 0

Under 25 000 € 51 42 3 1 1 25 000–35 000 € 61 33 3 2 0 Over 35 000 € 58 41 1 1 0

South Finland 62 35 2 1 0 West Finland 53 44 2 1 0 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 46 48 3 2 0

Social Democratic P. 58 40 1 1 0 The Finns 52 44 3 1 0 Coalition Party 61 39 0 0 0 Centre Party 43 56 2 0 0 Green League 72 25 2 0 1 Left Alliance 52 40 1 6 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

55 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 28. Military cooperation with all Nordic countries (Nordefco) Finland conducts military cooperation with all ordic countries. hat is your view on cooperation? Very positive Rather positive Cannot say Rather negative Very negative

Whole population 52 42 3 3 0

Women 49 44 3 3 1 Men 54 40 2 3 0

Under 25 years 45 45 5 5 1 25–34 years 44 48 5 3 0 35–49 years 55 42 2 1 0 50–79 years 55 39 2 4 1

Lower education 39 51 4 6 0 Post-secondary 63 33 2 1 1 University 62 36 1 2 0

Under 25 000 € 45 47 3 5 0 25 000–35 000 € 54 40 3 3 0 Over 35 000 € 55 41 1 3 1

South Finland 57 38 2 3 1 West Finland 53 43 2 2 0 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 36 52 5 6 0

Social Democratic P. 56 39 3 2 0 The Finns 49 44 3 4 0 Coalition Party 72 27 1 0 0 Centre Party 32 57 2 10 0 Green League 61 36 2 0 0 Left Alliance 45 45 1 9 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

56 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 29. Military cooperation in the European Union Finland conducts military cooperation with the uropean union. hat is your view on cooperation? Very positive Rather positive Cannot say Rather negative Very negative

Whole population 35 53 3 8 1

Women 33 53 4 9 1 Men 37 52 2 8 1

Under 25 years 31 58 2 8 0 25–34 years 23 64 5 7 0 35–49 years 41 49 2 6 1 50–79 years 38 49 2 10 1

Lower education 26 58 4 11 0 Post-secondary 39 51 2 7 2 University 46 47 0 5 1

Under 25 000 € 31 50 4 14 1 25 000–35 000 € 42 48 3 6 0 Over 35 000 € 37 54 1 6 2

South Finland 37 54 2 6 1 West Finland 40 49 2 9 1 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 24 56 6 13 0

Social Democratic P. 40 47 1 11 0 The Finns 26 50 3 20 2 Coalition Party 55 44 0 1 0 Centre Party 23 68 4 5 0 Green League 42 51 2 5 0 Left Alliance 25 59 0 12 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

57 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 30. Military cooperation with Nato Finland conducts military cooperation with ato. hat is your view on cooperation? Very positive Rather positive Cannot say Rather negative Very negative Whole population 13 44 8 26 8

Women 10 40 12 30 7 Men 16 49 4 22 9

Under 25 years 7 41 12 33 7 25–34 years 4 54 12 26 4 35–49 years 18 44 9 21 8 50–79 years 15 43 5 27 10

Lower education 12 40 9 31 9 Post-secondary 17 45 8 24 6 University 12 51 7 20 10

Under 25 000 € 13 38 13 24 12 25 000–35 000 € 9 41 9 32 9 Over 35 000 € 16 49 4 24 7

South Finland 12 48 7 26 6 West Finland 18 42 7 22 11 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 9 38 12 32 9

Social Democratic P. 8 51 10 27 4 The Finns 20 27 4 35 14 Coalition Party 25 68 0 7 0 Centre Party 13 40 5 39 3 Green League 8 48 15 22 6 Left Alliance 0 27 4 40 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

58 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 31. Military cooperation with the United States Finland conducts military cooperation with the nited States. hat is your view on cooperation? Very positive Rather positive Cannot say Rather negative Very negative Whole population 11 41 7 30 12

Women 8 40 9 33 10 Men 14 41 5 26 13

Under 25 years 10 47 7 26 10 25–34 years 4 44 11 31 10 35–49 years 12 34 8 36 10 50–79 years 13 41 5 27 14

Lower education 12 38 7 30 13 Post-secondary 11 44 7 28 11 University 10 43 6 31 10

Under 25 000 € 12 40 10 24 13 25 000–35 000 € 10 37 8 30 15 Over 35 000 € 11 41 4 32 12

South Finland 11 43 8 29 10 West Finland 12 37 5 33 13 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 9 41 8 26 16

Social Democratic P. 12 36 8 30 14 The Finns 18 29 6 30 17 Coalition Party 20 50 2 28 0 Centre Party 8 47 5 30 10 Green League 7 36 13 32 11 Left Alliance 1 18 8 38 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

59 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 32. The military situation in Finland’s near environs hat is your estimate of the military situation in Finland’s near environs during the net decade? Less threatening More or less the same Cannot say More threatening

Whole population 4 51 3 42

Women 2 48 4 46 Men 6 54 2 38

Under 25 years 7 58 3 31 25–34 years 6 48 3 42 35–49 years 2 50 2 47 50–79 years 3 51 3 43

Lower education 5 48 4 43 Post-secondary 4 53 1 41 University 2 55 2 41

Under 25 000 € 8 50 4 39 25 000–35 000 € 2 51 1 45 Over 35 000 € 2 52 2 43

South Finland 5 50 4 41 West Finland 3 48 1 49 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 4 56 4 36

Social Democratic P. 4 63 3 30 The Finns 5 31 1 63 Coalition Party 5 51 3 42 Centre Party 1 70 4 26 Green League 4 54 2 40 Left Alliance 7 48 4 42 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

60 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 33. The military situation in Finland’s near environs hat is your estimate of the military situation in Finland’s near environs during the net decade? Less threatening More or less the same Cannot say More threatening

Autumn 2019 4 51 3 42 Autumn 2018 6 48 4 41 Autumn 2015 5 48 2 44 Autumn 2014 6 46 1 46 Autumn 2011 7 70 2 21 Autumn 2007 9 68 1 22 Autumn 2005 10 70 2 17 Autumn 2004 8 67 2 24

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

61 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 34. Defence appropriations hat is your opinion on funds allocated to the efence Forces? Raised Raised Remain at Decreased Decreased signi cantly somewhat present level Cannot say somewhat signi cantly Whole population 6 28 46 7 9 4

Women 4 23 48 11 11 4 Men 8 34 45 2 8 3

Under 25 years 11 22 46 10 9 2 25–34 years 3 36 38 8 11 4 35–49 years 6 30 41 9 8 6 50–79 years 5 27 52 4 10 3

Lower education 6 30 49 7 6 3 Post-secondary 7 29 45 7 10 3 University 5 25 44 7 14 6

Under 25 000 € 8 23 45 8 11 4 25 000–35 000 € 3 31 43 7 13 3 Over 35 000 € 5 29 48 5 8 5

South Finland 7 26 43 7 13 4 West Finland 5 33 45 7 7 3 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 5 26 55 7 3 4

Social Democratic P. 4 28 46 10 11 3 The Finns 12 37 40 4 4 3 Coalition Party 4 47 45 2 3 1 Centre Party 5 30 47 7 6 5 Green League 5 19 51 9 13 4 Left Alliance 2 14 44 5 23 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

62 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 35. Defence appropriations hat is your opinion on funds allocated to the efence Forces? Raised Raised Remain at Decreased Decreased signi cantly somewhat present level Cannot say somewhat signi cantly Autumn 2019 34 46 7 13 Autumn 2018 40 40 7 12 Autumn 2017 47 40 5 8 Autumn 2016 47 41 4 9 Autumn 2015 47 42 4 7 Autumn 2014 56 36 3 6 Autumn 2013 32 51 4 14 Autumn 2012 33 52 3 12 Autumn 2011 27 50 3 19 Spring 2011 34 45 3 18 Autumn 2010 31 50 3 17 Autumn 2009 27 59 2 12 Autumn 2008 33 49 4 14 Autumn 2007 39 47 1 12 Autumn 2006 44 45 2 8 Autumn 2005 31 59 3 8 Autumn 2004 38 53 1 7 Autumn 2003 29 57 2 11 Autumn 2002 31 56 2 10 Autumn 2001 36 52 2 10 Spring 2001 44 44 3 9 December 2000 46 44 2 7 November 1999 34 49 5 11 October 1998 26 59 3 12 June 1998 26 52 3 18 In the year 1997 35 50 3 12 In the year 1996 29 55 3 14 November 1995 24 58 3 15 June 1995 34 50 2 15 October 1994 31 52 2 15 May 1994 30 48 5 17 October 1993 27 51 2 19 April 1993 14 52 3 31 In the year 1992 15 58 2 24 October 1991 17 43 2 38 April 1991 33 46 2 20 In the year 1990 33 50 4 12 In the year 1989 29 47 4 20 December 1988 26 50 5 18 April 1988 31 50 6 13 In the year 1987 29 49 5 16 January 1986 26 57 4 13 December 1986 32 49 5 15 In the year 1985 36 48 3 12 In the year 1984 33 51 3 12 In the year 1983 33 48 5 14 In the year 1982 32 49 5 14 In the year 1981 32 48 7 13 In the year 1980 41 42 5 12 In the year 1979 37 43 10 10 In the year 1978 38 38 12 12 In the year 1975 41 41 7 11 In the year 1974 42 41 8 9 In the year 1973 42 44 5 9 In the year 1972 36 48 8 8 In the year 1971 46 42 4 8 In the year 1970 56 33 3 8 In the year 1969 46 38 7 9 In the year 1964 17 55 12 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

63 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 36. Export of defence material "Which of the following alternatives re ects best your view on the exports of defence material by Finnish companies?"

Export of defence material should take Export of defence Criteria for granting Export of defence place in accordance material should be Cannot say export licences should material should be with the current permitted anywhere be tightened entirely banned practice and regulations Autumn 2019 6 46 10 33 5 Autumn 2018 5 49 9 31 6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Export of defence % material should take Export of defence Export of defence place in accordance Criteria for granting material should be material should be with the current Cannot say export licences should entirely banned permitted anywhere practice and be tightened regulations Whole population 6 46 10 33 5

Women 2 38 14 40 6 Men 9 53 6 27 4

Under 25 years 4 56 14 23 3 25–34 years 8 36 21 29 5 35–49 years 8 48 10 30 4 50–79 years 4 44 5 40 6

Lower education 8 48 10 28 6 Post-secondary 3 46 10 37 4 University 4 41 11 39 5

Under 25 000 € 5 40 12 37 5 25 000–35 000 € 4 29 8 56 4 Over 35 000 € 7 51 8 30 4

South Finland 6 45 10 35 5 West Finland 6 46 10 33 5 East Finland/Oulu/Lapland 6 48 11 31 4

Social Democratic P. 2 38 12 43 5 The Finns 13 48 5 26 8 Coalition Party 11 61 5 23 0 Centre Party 3 56 14 26 1 Green League 1 37 8 48 7 Left Alliance 7 27 10 48 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

64 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 37. Factors causing concern among the citizens ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future? A lot To some extent Cannot say A little Not at all

The refugee situation in the world 43 39 1 14 2 International terrorism 45 36 0 15 3 Proliferation of weapons of 43 32 2 17 5 mass destruction Climate change (global warming) 41 34 1 14 10 Organized crime 41 34 1 19 5 Politically extremist movements 32 43 2 18 5 Threats, in other words cyber 32 39 1 22 6 threats against information networks Situation in the Middle East 30 41 2 20 7 Termination of arms control agreements 20 49 5 18 8 Social inequality in Finland 26 39 1 26 7 The employment situation in Finland 21 43 1 27 9 Security situation in the Baltic Sea area 19 44 2 26 8 Development in the United States 21 41 4 23 10 Racism 26 35 1 27 11 Development in Russia 21 38 4 27 10 State-sponsored fake news reporting 14 35 4 33 13 directed at Finland Situation in Ukraine 7 37 5 35 17 Development of the European Union 8 34 5 36 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

65 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 38. Factors causing concern among the citizens (I) ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?

A lot To some extent Cannot say A little Not at all The refugee situation in the world Autumn 2019 43 39 1 14 2 Autumn 2018 54 33 1 10 2 Autumn 2017 46 37 0 14 2 Autumn 2016 40 45 1 11 3 International terrorism Autumn 2019 45 36 0 15 3 Autumn 2018 55 33 0 10 2 Autumn 2017 43 38 0 16 2 Autumn 2016 35 40 1 20 4 Autumn 2015 46 37 0 14 3 Autumn 2014 32 42 1 20 5 Autumn 2013 24 38 0 30 8 Autumn 2012 27 39 0 24 9 Autumn 2011 32 35 0 25 7 Autumn 2010 37 33 1 23 6 Autumn 2009 34 42 1 17 6 Autumn 2008 39 41 1 16 4 Autumn 2007 51 38 0 9 2 Autumn 2006 47 36 0 14 2 Autumn 2005 50 35 1 11 4 Autumn 2004 50 36 0 11 2 Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction Autumn 2019 43 32 2 17 5 Autumn 2018 48 34 1 14 3 Autumn 2017 32 36 2 25 6 Autumn 2016 27 37 2 27 7 Autumn 2015 34 37 1 21 6 Autumn 2014 33 35 1 23 8 Autumn 2013 26 35 1 29 9 Autumn 2012 29 33 1 29 8 Autumn 2011 35 34 0 24 8 Autumn 2010 39 32 1 22 5 Autumn 2009 25 42 2 25 6 Autumn 2008 27 40 1 26 6 Autumn 2007 42 37 0 18 2 Autumn 2006 35 38 1 23 3 Autumn 2005 34 38 1 23 4 Autumn 2004 36 42 0 21 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

66 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 39. Factors causing concern among the citizens (II) ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future?

A lot To some extent Cannot say A little Not at all Climate change (global warming)* Autumn 2019 41 34 1 14 10

Autumn 2018 55 34 0 7 3

Autumn 2017 31 44 0 18 7

Autumn 2016 26 45 1 21 7

Autumn 2015 30 42 0 20 8

Autumn 2014 25 38 1 26 10

Autumn 2013 21 36 1 28 14

Autumn 2012 21 38 0 27 14

Autumn 2011 18 36 0 30 16

Autumn 2010 24 39 0 25 12

Autumn 2009 37 39 1 15 7

Autumn 2008 33 42 0 18 7

Autumn 2007 51 36 0 11 2

Autumn 2006 32 41 0 22 5

Autumn 2005 37 41 0 19 3

Autumn 2004 22 45 0 25 7 Organized crime Autumn 2019 41 34 1 19 5 Politically extremist movements Autumn 2019 32 43 2 18 5 Autumn 2018 43 39 2 13 3 Autumn 2017 37 35 2 20 5 Autumn 2016 35 39 2 19 5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

*) v. 2004–2015 Ilmaston lämpeneminen % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

67 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 40. Factors causing concern among the citizens (III) ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future? A lot To some extent Cannot say A little Not at all Threats, in other words cyber threats against information networks** Autumn 2019 32 39 1 22 6 Autumn 2018 38 41 2 16 3 Autumn 2017 21 42 3 29 6 Autumn 2016 18 42 3 28 9 Autumn 2015 19 43 3 26 9 Autumn 2014 21 42 2 26 9 Autumn 2013 13 37 2 35 12 Autumn 2012 18 36 3 30 13 Autumn 2011 20 39 2 31 9 Autumn 2010 22 38 2 29 9 Autumn 2009 23 42 2 25 9 Autumn 2008 24 45 2 24 5 Situation in the Middle East Autumn 2019 30 41 2 20 7 Autumn 2018 36 41 2 16 5 Autumn 2013 18 38 1 34 9 Autumn 2012 22 36 2 29 11 Autumn 2011 15 34 2 34 16 Autumn 2010 11 35 1 36 17 Autumn 2009 12 40 3 35 10 Autumn 2008 13 37 2 36 11 Autumn 2007 21 45 1 27 6 Autumn 2006 24 43 1 26 6 Termination of arms control agreements Autumn 2019 20 49 5 18 8 Social inequality in Finland Autumn 2019 26 39 1 26 7 Autumn 2018 35 41 1 19 3 Autumn 2017 26 41 1 24 8 Autumn 2016 27 42 3 23 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % **) 2008-2012 Cyber threats against information networks ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

68 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 41. Factors causing concern among the citizens (IV) ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future? A lot To some extent Cannot say A little Not at all The employment situation in Finland Autumn 2019 21 43 1 27 9 Autumn 2018 26 45 0 23 6 Autumn 2017 28 43 0 25 4 Autumn 2016 43 41 1 13 3 Autumn 2015 49 38 0 10 3 Autumn 2014 49 37 0 11 2 Autumn 2013 42 41 0 15 2 Autumn 2012 37 43 0 15 5 Autumn 2011 31 44 0 21 4 Autumn 2010 30 41 1 23 5 Autumn 2009 38 43 1 15 4 Autumn 2008 20 45 0 27 8 Security situation in the Baltic Sea area Autumn 2019 19 44 2 26 8 Autumn 2018 24 52 1 16 6 Autumn 2017 18 46 1 26 8 Autumn 2016 19 47 2 24 8 Development in the United States Autumn 2019 21 41 4 23 10 Autumn 2018 31 41 3 17 8 Autumn 2017 27 36 2 26 8 Racism Autumn 2019 26 35 1 27 11 Autumn 2018 38 40 0 18 5 Autumn 2017 31 38 1 22 7 Autumn 2016 31 39 1 22 8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

69 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 42. Factors causing concern among the citizens (V) ow would you assess the following phenomena and actors? o what etent do they make you worry about the future? A lot To some extent Cannot say A little Not at all Development in Russia Autumn 2019 21 38 4 27 10 Autumn 2018 25 46 3 20 7 Autumn 2017 25 37 2 29 8 Autumn 2016 27 45 2 19 7 Autumn 2015 26 43 1 23 6 Autumn 2014 32 43 2 18 6 Autumn 2013 10 32 2 38 18 Autumn 2012 13 36 2 31 18 Autumn 2011 11 36 2 34 17 Autumn 2010 10 39 2 32 17 Autumn 2009 12 36 3 35 14 Autumn 2008 16 40 2 29 13 Autumn 2007 20 48 1 24 7 Autumn 2006 19 38 1 31 11 Autumn 2005 13 38 1 35 12 Autumn 2004 20 42 2 29 6 State-sponsored fake news reporting directed at Finland Autumn 2019 14 35 4 33 13 Autumn 2018 23 39 3 26 9 Situation in Ukraine Autumn 2019 7 37 5 35 17 Autumn 2017 8 35 4 40 13 Autumn 2016 16 43 3 29 9 Autumn 2015 15 41 3 33 8 Autumn 2014 28 46 1 19 5 Development of the European Union Autumn 2019 8 34 5 36 16 Autumn 2018 12 44 4 28 12 Autumn 2017 11 41 3 35 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

70 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 43. Preparedness for various threats ow well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats? Very well Fairly well Cannot say Fairly badly Very badly

Various infectious diseases, epidemics 30 58 3 9 1

Major accidents 17 69 4 8 1

Armed attack 13 70 7 10 1 Various environmental threats ( oods, oil spills, transport of hazardous substances) 17 64 4 13 2

Availability of energy 10 61 6 22 1

Terrorism 7 55 4 29 6

Global warming 9 51 4 32 5

International crime 5 53 5 31 5

Cyber attacks on information networks 6 51 9 28 6

Foreign political pressure 5 52 14 27 2

Foreign economic pressure 4 45 15 33 3

Financial crisis 2 40 7 44 6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

71 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 44. Preparedness for various threats (I) ow well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats? Very well Fairly well Cannot say Fairly badly Very badly Various infectious diseases, epidemics Autumn 2019 30 58 3 9 1 Autumn 2017 26 58 3 11 2 Autumn 2016 28 56 4 9 2 Autumn 2015 25 59 2 10 3 Autumn 2014 23 60 3 14 1 Autumn 2012 18 60 2 18 2 Autumn 2010 17 62 1 17 3 Autumn 2009 24 65 1 8 1 Autumn 2007 22 64 1 12 1 Major accidents Autumn 2019 17 69 4 8 1 Autumn 2017 12 68 4 14 2 Autumn 2016 13 67 4 13 3 Autumn 2015 11 69 3 14 3 Autumn 2014 10 65 4 18 2 Autumn 2012 8 66 2 23 1 Autumn 2010 11 60 3 24 2 Autumn 2009 13 69 2 15 1 Autumn 2007 13 66 1 18 2 Armed attack Autumn 2019 13 70 7 10 1 Autumn 2017 8 68 5 17 2 Autumn 2016 6 64 5 24 2 Autumn 2015 5 58 5 28 3 Autumn 2014 5 57 6 30 2 Autumn 2012 5 54 4 35 3 Autumn 2010 9 61 4 23 3 Autumn 2009 10 63 6 20 1 Autumn 2007 12 62 2 21 3 Various environmental threats ( oods, oil spills, transport of hazardous substances) Autumn 2019 17 64 4 13 2 Autumn 2017 18 61 4 16 1 Autumn 2016 15 65 4 15 1 Autumn 2015 15 62 3 17 3 Autumn 2014 12 64 2 21 1 Autumn 2012 6 62 2 27 3 Autumn 2010 6 54 2 34 4 Autumn 2009 10 65 2 20 2 Autumn 2007 12 55 2 28 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

72 FINN`S OPINIONS ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

Figure 45. Preparedness for various threats (II) ow well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats? Very well Fairly well Cannot say Fairly badly Very badly Availability of energy Autumn 2019 10 61 6 22 1 Autumn 2017 8 64 5 21 1 Autumn 2016 5 60 5 27 3 Autumn 2015 5 61 5 26 4 Autumn 2014 4 52 4 36 4 Autumn 2012 8 64 2 24 2 Autumn 2010 12 68 3 16 1 Autumn 2009 14 64 2 18 2 Autumn 2007 13 65 2 18 2 Terrorism Autumn 2019 7 55 4 29 6 Autumn 2017 5 48 3 33 12 Autumn 2016 6 53 5 29 8 Autumn 2015 5 48 5 33 10 Autumn 2014 4 53 5 33 6 Autumn 2012 4 44 6 42 5 Autumn 2010 5 50 6 34 5 Autumn 2009 6 51 8 32 4 Autumn 2007 10 46 4 36 4 Global warming Autumn 2019 9 51 4 32 5 Autumn 2017 7 54 5 30 4 Autumn 2016 6 51 5 34 4 Autumn 2015 4 49 6 36 6 Autumn 2014 4 51 5 34 6 Autumn 2012 4 41 5 45 5 Autumn 2010 5 44 4 41 6 Autumn 2009 4 45 3 40 7 Autumn 2007 7 42 3 42 6 International crime Autumn 2019 5 53 5 31 5 Autumn 2017 5 44 5 37 9 Autumn 2016 3 48 5 36 9 Autumn 2015 4 49 4 34 8 Autumn 2014 5 51 3 35 6 Autumn 2012 3 47 3 41 6 Autumn 2010 3 49 4 39 5 Autumn 2009 6 52 4 33 5 Autumn 2007 7 55 1 33 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

73 ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS 2020:3

Figure 46. Preparedness for various threats (III) ow well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats? Very well Fairly well Cannot say Fairly badly Very badly Foreign political pressure Autumn 2019 5 52 14 27 2 Autumn 2017 4 51 12 29 4 Autumn 2016 4 48 9 34 5 Autumn 2015 4 44 9 37 6 Autumn 2014 3 49 8 36 4 Autumn 2012 5 47 7 37 4 Autumn 2010 5 48 11 32 4 Autumn 2009 5 42 13 35 4 Autumn 2007 8 51 9 28 3 Cyber attacks on information networks Autumn 2019 6 51 9 28 6 Autumn 2017 6 44 7 33 9 Autumn 2016 6 45 8 32 10 Autumn 2015 5 50 8 29 8 Autumn 2014 5 47 7 35 7 Autumn 2012 4 46 9 35 6 Autumn 2010 5 53 8 29 5 Autumn 2009 7 51 9 29 3 Autumn 2007 9 47 6 32 6 Foreign economic pressure Autumn 2019 4 45 15 33 3 Autumn 2017 2 47 12 35 3 Autumn 2016 2 42 9 39 7 Autumn 2015 2 41 10 40 7 Autumn 2014 1 41 8 42 7 Financial crisis Autumn 2019 2 40 7 44 6 Autumn 2017 1 41 6 45 7 Autumn 2016 1 33 5 52 9 Autumn 2015 1 26 3 58 12 Autumn 2014 1 32 4 51 12 Autumn 2012 3 43 3 46 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % ABDI The Advisory Board For Defence Information Bulletins 1/2020

74

The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) ABDI (MTS)

Set up by the Government, the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) is a perma- nent Parliamentary Committee, which administratively functions in the Ministry of Defence. In addition to parliamentary members, ABDI’s members represent various expert organisations: FINNS`OPINIONS ON the Prime Minister’s Office, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Education and Culture, Defence Command Finland, Finnish Broadcasting FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY, Company, Finnish News Agency (STT), Union of Journalists in Finland, Finnish Media Federation, National Defence University, and Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI). NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY

ABDI investigates, on an annual basis, the opinions and attitudes of Finns towards security policy and the factors influencing them and conducts at least one extensive survey that covers the entire adult population in Finland. The questions cover foreign and security policy and national defence. Some of the questions represent a continuous sequence since the 1960s. The surveys by ABDI are in the public domain and accessible to all. THE ADVISORY BOARD FOR DEFENCE INFORMATION

The Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)

Ministry of Defence BP 31 Bulletins and reports 00131 HELSINKI

www.defmin.fi/abdi January, 2020 2020:3