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Home , Barathea (horse), Cosmah, Davona Dale Stakes, Dunbeath (horse), Imagine (horse), Littleprincessemma

January 11, 2016 www.PaulickReport.com SPECIAL

The Year Ahead By Ray Paulick

One of the things we like to do at the Paulick Report (www. 30 percent from the all-time high of $15.2 billion wagered in paulickreport.com) is ask readers through online polls what 2003. But the number of races run in the U.S. has declined by they think, both on specific issues and general trends within almost the same percentage, 27 percent, over the same num- the industry. ber of years. So, essentially, the amount of money wagered per race has been flat over the last dozen years. One recent poll, for example, asked readers whether 2015 , in general, a positive or negative year for . That may be why our readers were so pessimistic when asked Readers responded overwhelmingly (81 percent to 19 per- in a December poll if the industry is on the right cent) that 2015 was a “positive” year. track or had fallen on the wrong track. More than two-thirds (69 percent) answered “wrong track,” with only 31 percent There was a lot to feel good about. feeling the industry was on the “right track.”

For starters, horse racing had its first Triple Crown winner Just like there was a lot to feel positive about in 2015, there since 1978. With those three victories and his tour de force in is a great deal to be concerned about while looking into the the Breeders’ Cup Classic, brought massive Continued on Page 5 publicity to the sport, particularly through social media outlets. There were an estimated 22 million viewers of NBC’s coverage, the third highest in history. if you But did the Triple Crown winner have coattails that also trans- could lated to economic gains for the industry? IMAGINE have SHARED THE UPSIDE The most obvious way to try and answer that question is by measuring pari-mutuel handle in the United States. It grew, on one of these well-bred though modestly, at year’s end, winding up just short of $10.7 G1-winning imports: billion dollars – a gain of 1.2 percent from 2014. I’m not sure we can give American Pharoah credit for that growth; some EL PRADO (IRE) early-season numbers were up, and wagering was down in June and August. STREET CRY (IRE)

Economic benefits from a superstar horse like American Phar- CANDY RIDE (ARG) oah cannot be measured in short-term analysis.

The year-end betting number of $10.7 billion is a decline of New for 2016 HAMPTON COURT ASK RAY Record-Breaking G1 Winner by Legendary Sire REDOUTE’S CHOICE QUESTION: Any predictions for 2016?

ANSWER: Arizona Cardinals win the Super Bowl, OPEN HOUSE Michigan State the NCAA men’s basketball tourna- Today – Friday, 1-3pm daily ment, a longshot wins the Derby – and no Triple Crown winner. The Chicago Cubs win their first World Se- ries since 1908, and Donald Trump beats Bernie Sanders to become President. The Breeders’ Farm (859) 294-0030 | spendthriftfarm.com www.PaulickReport.com Page 2

Dispersal Spotlight Estate of Sarah J. Leigh By Frank Mitchell

The late Gerald Leigh was one of the great sportsman breed- Three Chimneys Farm and as a private adviser, knew ers of our time, and after his early death, Leigh’s daughter Sar- the Leighs well. ah Jane the energy and wherewithal to continue the work and pleasure so uniquely mixed in our pastime of breeding and “In terms of being able to turn out high-quality classic horses racing the Thoroughbred. from a small group of , I’d put Mr. Leigh up there with Fed- erico Tesio,” Rosenberg said. “Gerald started boarding horses And at this 2016 January sale, the final hammer with us at Three Chimneys in the mid-1980s, and the mares will come down on the Leigh bloodstock with the dispersal of that Sarah Jane retained after his death stayed on there.” the estate of Sarah J. Leigh. The horses are consigned through Craig and Holly Bandoroff’s De- The broodmare Summer Solo, who nali Stud. sells as Hip 259, is an indicator of some of the lessons that Sarah Leigh “Sarah Jane didn’t have a lot of learned from her father. Looking at the horses, she didn’t do it full time, family, the young ’s dam Summer but it was a passion she inherited Solstice was a stakes winner by French from her father,” Craig Bandoroff Derby winner Caerleon (by said. “She was in the theater II). Summer Solstice produced two business, and for her, racing and stakes winners, and the second dam breeding were an avocation, rath- produced two stakes winners and two er than a vocation.” stakes-placed runners.

Last month at Tattersalls, the But more important than the presence Leigh estate sold its European of black type is the evidence of very high stock, with lots realizing up to racing class in the black type. Sum- 1.1 million guineas for the Pivotal Summer Solo mer Solstice had a full sister named mare Seta, whose second dam is the Leighs’ great mare Bro- Summer Symphony who was group I-placed, and they had a , winner of the G1 Prix de la Foret and dam of Barathea half-brother named Gharir who was third in the French 2,000 (Irish 2,000 Guineas, Breeders’ Cup Mile) and (Irish Guineas. The best of all the siblings was Act One, who won five 1,000 Guineas, Fillies Mile). of his six starts, including a pair of G1 races in the Criterium International at 2 and the Prix Lupin at 3. In all, this is a small dispersal, consisting of those horses Sarah Leigh had in America: two broodmares, three racing or brood- In keeping with the depth of quality in this family, Summer Solo mare prospects, and a yearling. was G1-placed as a 3-year-old and is in foal for the first time to Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. But volume was never an interest of the Leighs. At his Eydon Hall Stud, Gerald Leigh bred such horses as Barathea, Bosra “I admired the Leighs both as people, for the goodness and gen- Sham, Gossamer, and Markofdistinction. Dan Rosenberg, both erosity, and also for their commitment to breeding the best in his role as former president and chief operating officer of horses possible,” Rosenberg said. PRS Florida Thoroughbred Farm Managers’, Inc.

Annual Charity Auction of No-Guarantee Seasons

Auction Preview is January 12th, Auction is Live on January 13th and ends at 8:00 pm, Friday, January 15th. www.starquine.com k3 Time aG1 Winner and bc maile chamkpion fromo the immendiate famtily of kiingmaembo "...might have been the best single turf performance turned in by any horse all year in North America." -Marcus Hersh DRF

1:32 4/5 ARGUABLY THE BEST BRED SON OF TIZNOW FOUR GENERATIONS OF GRADE 1 WINNERS “Wayne Lukas picked Strong Mandate as a yearling and then told me he was among the best 2YOs he had trained. We bred two mares to him.” -Chuck Kidder

Inquiries to Grant Williamson at 859.873.7053 www.PaulickReport.com Page 5

Honor Roll Birdatthewire Rewards Connections For Their Vision By Scott Jagow

Davona Dale Stakes. Those efforts made her a 5-1 choice in the G1 , where she finished fifth but came out of the race a tad “off,” according to Romans.

“We decided to keep her moving and keep her training so she would loosen up and not lose her fitness, and she started getting better and better and came back to her old self,” Romans said.

Romans shipped her to California, and Birdatthewire capped off 2015 with a Grade 1 victory in the seven-furlong La Brea.

“The best thing is probably her attitude,” said Romans. “You never even know she’s in the barn. If you take care of her, she takes care of you.”

For the winter, Birdatthewire is under the care of Tom Proc- tor in California. When she returns to Kentucky in the spring, 2012 Bay Filly, Summer Bird - My Limit, by Wagon a possible target might be the G1 La Troienne at Churchill Limit. Consigned by Pauls Mill to 2013 KEE Jan., Downs, a race Romans won last year with Molly Morgan. PRS $22,000 RNA. Consigned by Select Sales to 2013 Fasig-Tipton July, $37,000 RNA. Consigned by Se- lect Sales to 2013 Fasig-Tipton Oct., purchased by Tom Camp for $23,000. Having a second set of eyes you trust can be a key to success in the Thoroughbred business. For trainer Dale Romans, those eyes belong to longtime horseman Frank Smith.

In the fall of 2013, Smith’s gaze fell upon a Summer Bird filly that had failed to meet her reserve in two pre- vious sales that year. She may have been an “awkward young horse,” according to Romans, but Smith’s stamp FEATURED of approval was all he needed. YEARLING SESSION “He has a way of seeing things, and he’s taught me how to see things that maybe other people don’t see on a horse,” said Romans. “He’s done it many times with in- expensive yearlings.”

The ownership group Forum Racing IV, which includes Romans and is managed by Tom Camp, snatched up Birdatthewire for $23,000. The filly, bred in Kentucky MIXED SALE – HORSES OF ALL AGES by Lynn and Kathy Jones has since collected nearly 25 times that in earnings ($569,090). OCTOBER 9, 2016 ‘Frank breaks all my babies, and all along he kept tell- Reasonable Rates Serving the Equine ing me she was nice, that she could be a good one,” Great Facility Industry for 37 Years! Romans said. Entry Deadline On the track, Birdatthewire extinguished any doubts Aug. 25th, 2016 about her ability. To start her 3-year-old season, she 2829 South MacArthur Blvd., reeled off two wins in the Oaks and www.heritageplace.com Oklahoma City OK 73128 Forward Gal Stakes (both G2) and a second in the G2 email: [email protected] 405.682.4551 www.PaulickReport.com Page 6

Major Mare Bookings By Natalie Voss

January brings with it the start of a new breeding season, and owner Jane Lyon said the plan is to send the mare back to Pio- for owners of seven-figure broodmares or broodmare pros- neerof the Nile in the 2016 breeding season. Lyon admitted pects, it’s the most wonderful time of the year as they choose she might have a hard time agreeing to send the foal to 2016 matings from the many eligible at stud. The auction. “I generally try to keep one or two fillies out of our top Paulick Report often gets questions about what retired mares mares because you never know when something might hap- are up to after they leave the track, so we compiled a list of the pen and you want to have a little bit of that bloodline to carry best-known names from the past few years of racing along on,” she said. with their new beaus for the 2016 mating season. , Awesome Maria, Untouched , Take Charge Brandi: The winner sold for $6 Take Charge Lady, Ivanavinalot, Playa Maya, Arch’s million to John Sikura/Hill ‘n’ Dale Equine in November of Gal Edith: All flocking to American Pharoah, per a re- 2015, and Sikura later tweeted that the daughter of Giant’s port in late 2015 by Commentary. Causeway will go to in 2016. “Champions both, she in- “[American Pharoah] will get every chance to become jects speed,” he wrote. “He stamina and substance. it.” a great sire and if it doesn’t happen he’ll have zero ex- cuses,” Justin Zayat, racing manager of Zayat Stables, Angela Renee: This Grade 1 winner picked up $3 million from told TRC. Don Alberto Corp at Keeneland November. The half sister to stakes winner Elnaawi will be bred to for a Leslie’s Lady: The dam of Beholder foaled a Scat Daddy 2017 foal, according to Fernando Diaz-Valdez of Don Alberto. on May 17 of last year and took the year off from breeding. Martha Buckner of Clarkland Farm in central Kentucky report- Love the Chase: The dam of California Chrome arrived in ed the mare will be bred to Medgalia d’Oro this year. PRS central Kentucky in December and is slated to be bred to Tapit this season. She has produced three full siblings to the 2014 Horse of the Year: Hope’s Love, California Chromet, and Faversham—all of whom are California-breds. MARE IMPROVEMENT

Sweet Reason: The multiple Grade 1 winner packed her bags % for Japan after the November Fasig-Tipton sale, and accord- 16 BLACKTYPE HORSES SECOND ONLY TO GHOSTZAPPER (17%) ing to the Daily Racing Form, is likely headed to visit leading FOR SONS OF AWESOME AGAIN Japanese sire . 75% WINNERS Littleprincessemma: Summer Wind Farm picked up the Leading Runners include: dam of the 2015 Triple Crown winner along with a full sib- GYPSYPRS ROBIN ($598,900), MAMDOOHA ($325,200) ling to American Pharoah in utero for $2.1 million in late OUR CARAVAN ($303,300), CLOTHES FALL OFF ($188,760) 2014 who was named Irish Pharaoh. She is carrying a ASIYA ($136,200) filly by Tapit for the 2016 foaling season, and Summer Wind DAAHER Ranks Above These Top Kentucky Stallions by Lifetime AEI: Stallion AEI CI DAAHER 1.54 1.14 About Super Saver 1.54 1.69 Exchange Rate 1.54 1.43 1.53 1.73 For advertising inquiries please Hard Spun 1.52 1.87 call Emily at 859.913.9633 Ray Paulick - Publisher [email protected] Emily Alberti - Director of Advertising [email protected] Brilliant G1 Winner Scott Jagow - Editor-in-Chief [email protected] Mary Schweitzer - News Editor [email protected] DAAHER Awesome Again – Irish Cherry, by Irish Open Natalie Voss - Features Writer [email protected] $5,000 LF Chelsea Hackbarth - Asst Editor [email protected] Frank Mitchell - Contributing Writer 4600 Ft. Springs Rd., Lexington, KY 40513 Kent Barnes, Stallion Manager Esther Marr - Custom Publishing Editor Inquiries to 859-224-4585 shadwellfarm.com COPYRIGHT © 2016, PUBLISHING LLC www.PaulickReport.com Page 7

Continued from Page 1 Thoroughbred industry’s future – hence the general feeling that things are not on the right track.

It was not so long ago that horse racing enjoyed double-digit growth in annual handle. Wagering increased by 12 percent from 1995 to ’96, the third of 10 consecutive years of growth. Since 2004, handle has declined in nine of 12 years, the largest annual decline hitting 10 percent in 2009.

Why does this matter? Does handle affect bloodstock markets? Of course it matters, and handle does affect the value of blood- stock. While there is a disconnect between racing and the top end of the commercial market, where end users are not driven by purse levels but instead by emotion and the hope of finding the “home run horse,” the middle market depends on a healthy racing industry.

Many will measure the health of the industry by purses, which used to be driven almost exclusively by pari-mutuel handle. Over the last 20 years, however, an increasingly higher percentage of purse revenue is derived from other sources, primarily slot machines.

As a result, purses in 2015, approximately $1.1 billion, are mar- ginally higher than they were in 2004, when the steady decline in wagering began. Because of the 27 percent decline in the number of races, the average purse per race has seen steady growth. Sustaining these purse levels will be a serious challenge.

There is no guarantee the slot machine revenue for purses will continue to be there. State legislators facing budget crises are increasingly scrutinizing the diversion of revenue from slot ma- chines and casinos toward purses. Some states already have decreased the money flow from slot machines to racing.

A bigger threat comes in the way of “decoupling,” which means pari-mutuel operations with slot machines and/or casino wa- gering will be permitted to keep those operations while shutting down their pari-mutuel activities, which in many cases are losing millions of dollars a year. Some tracks with slot machines would eagerly shut down racing if they were permitted to.

This is why horse racing must return the focus to its core product, the sale of pari-mutuel tickets, whether it’s on-track, off-track or online. The future of Thoroughbred breeding – for most of those involved in this business – depends on a healthy horse racing industry.

American Pharoah may have brougt new fans to the sport, some who gradually will become horseplayers. The current fad of marketing fashion and high-end experienc- es at racetracks is fine, too, for the same reason. Those are long-term strategies.

In the short term, racing has to develop a strategy to in- crease handle with its existing customer base. PRS www.PaulickReport.com Page 8

Five to Watch A look at some of the sale’s top hips By Frank Mitchell

Hip 17 Cheerforlute (dark brown mare 2011 by Midnight is in foal to classic winner on a May 1 cover. Melody Lute x , by ): Young mare is Maiden was stakes-placed, and her second dam a half-sister to in foal to champion and classic winner Lookin at Lucky (by champion and to leading sire , who is also the sire Smart Strike) on a May 4 cover. Lookin at Lucky is among of . Mare is inbred to Halo’s dam 3x3. the leading young sires, and this mare by champion sprinter Midnight Lute is carrying her second foal. Her dam is mul- Hip 181 Penelope Plum (Chestnut mare 2009 by Badge of tiple champion Silverbulletday, winner of 15 races (5 G1s) Silver x Captivating Arch, by Arch): Young mare is in foal to and the dam of three stakes-producing daughters already. leading sire Bernardini on an April 1 cover, carrying her third foal. Penelope Plum is a half-sister to Canadian champion Un- Hip 40 Divine Cat (Dark bay mare 2007 by Tale of the captured (Lion Heart) and to stakes winner Dancing Raven Cat x Devine, by ): This mare is by good sire (Tomahawk). Their dam is Canadian champion broodmare Cap- and broodmare sire Tale of the Cat (), and she tivating (Arch). Penelope Plum has a yearling filly by leading sire has already produced a stakes horse by . Divine Speightstown and a 2-year-old filly by the late Harlan’s Holiday. Cat is in foal to the important sire on an April 17 cover. Her dam is a stakes-placed full sister to G1 Hip 259 Summer Solo (Bay mare 2011 by Arch x Sum- winner Lakeway, and this is the family of mer Solstice, by Caerleon): Stakes-placed mare is carrying winner and English highweight Dunbeath. her first foal by Horse of the Year and leading sire Ghostzap- per (Awesome Again). G1-placed at 3, this mare is part of Hip 129 Melody Maiden (Dark bay mare 2001 by Saint the Leigh dispersal, and she is out of a stakes winner and a Ballado x Lake Placid, by Royal Academy): The dam of two half-sister to two stakes winners. Their second dam produced stakes horses, including stakes winner Medolina, this mare three G1 horses, including Prix Lupin winner Act One. PRS

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