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Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (PDF) Moscow 2016 УДК 001.18+62-047.72 ББК 72в6+3в6 R95 Editor-in-chief: Leonid Gokhberg Editorial Board: Igor Agamirzyan, Mikhail Blinkin, Sergey Filippov, Nikolay Kasimov, Mikhail Kirpichnikov, Lyudmila Ogorodova, Andrey Yaroslavtsev Authors: Gulnara Abdrakhmanova, Nina Alekseeva, Dmitry Belousov, Mikhail Blinkin, Vasily Burov, Lev Carlin, Alexander Chulok, Sergey Dobrolyubov, Marina Doroshenko, Oleg Ena, Oleg Evseev, Sergey Filippov, Alexander Giglavy, Leonid Gokhberg, Anna Grebenyuk, Pavel Iosifov, Igor Kaminsky, Oleg Karasev, Nikolay Kasimov, Mikhail Kirpichnikov, Yury Kistenev, Lyubov Matich, Vladimir Mesropyan, Lyudmila Ogorodova, Maxim Patrushev, Vladimir Popov, Liliana Proskuryakova, Sergey Psakhie, Nikolay Ravin, Pavel Rudnik, Alexey Savkin, Konstantin Skryabin, Sergey Shashnov, Alexander Sokolov, Anna Sokolova, Leonid Vaisberg, Konstantin Vishnevsky, Andrey Yaroslavtsev Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight / Gokhberg L. (Ed.); Ministry of Education and Science R95 of the Russian Federation; National Research University Higher School of Economics. – Moscow: HSE, 2016. – 232 p. – 300 copies. – ISBN 978-5-7598-1351-4. Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight was approved by the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation on January 3, 2014 (№ DM-P8-5). This report presents materials for the Foresight that were prepared by the National Research University Higher School of Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. More than 2000 Russian and foreign experts, including representatives of leading research centres, universities, companies, technological platforms, and innovative regional clusters took part in this study. The aim of the study was to identify Russia’s most promising areas of science and technology that are capable of playing an important role in solving various social and economic issues and realising the country’s competitive advantages. The Foresight examines current global challenges, the windows of opportunity and threats linked to these challenges, future innovation markets, radical new products and technologies, and research areas in seven priority fields: Information and Communication Technologies; Biotechnology; Medicine and Health Care; New Materials and Nanotechnologies; Environmental Management; Transport and Space Systems; Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving. The final recommendations have been widely discussed with a large number of Russian and foreign experts. The report is of practical interest to international organisations, government agencies, companies, research organisations, universities, technology platforms, innovative regional clusters, and other organisations. This publication was prepared with the support of Development Fund for Applied Research of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. УДК 001.18+62-047.72 ББК 72в6+3в6 Please cite this publication as: Gokhberg L. (Ed.) (2016) Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight. Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, National Research University Higher School of Economics. ISBN 978-5-7598-1351-4 © National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2016 This publication is a subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher. GRATITUDE The report has made use of expertise and research reports from the following organisations: National Research University Higher School of Economics; Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting; science and technology Foresight centres based at leading higher education institutions (M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University; the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; the National Research Nuclear University; St. Petersburg State University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics; the Siberian State Medical University; and K.E. Tsiolkovsky Russian State Technological University); research centres (Kurchatov Institute National Research Centre; the All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Aviation Materials; the Central AeroHydrodynamic Institute named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky; the Central Research Institute of Machine Building; Academician M.F. Reshetnev “Information Satellite Systems” (JSC); and others); technology platforms (“Aviation Mobility”, “BioTech2030”, “High-speed Intelligent Transport”, “Deep Processing of Hydrocarbon Resources”, “Light and Reliable Constructions”, “Medicine of the Future”, “National Information Satellite System”, “National Programming Platform”, “National Supercomputer Technology Platform”, “Reclaiming the Ocean”, “Technologies of Ecological Development” and others). The authors gratefully acknowledge significant contributions to the study provided by the following distinguished experts: Sergey Abramov, Boris Aleshin, Nikolay Aleshin, Mikhail Alfimov, Grigory Andrushchak, Alexander Archakov, Mikhail Beburov, Mariya Belova, Nikolay Bortnikov, Valentin Chanturiya, Valery Charushin, Alexander Cherniavsky, Sergey Chernyshev, Mikhail Chetvertakov, Boris Chetverushkin, Andrey Dutov, Vladimir Fortov, Alexander Gabibov, Yury Izhvanov, Vladimir Ilyin, Evgeny Kablov, Igor Kalyaev, Pavel Kaminsky, Anatoly Karachinsky, Alexander Klimenko, Sergey Kolpakov, Leonid Komm, Anatoly Koroteyev, Boris Kryuchkov, Andrey Lisitsa, Dmitry Livanov, Vitaly Lopota, Alexander Makarov, Svetlana Maltseva, Tatiana Mitrova, Oleg Naraikin, Artemy Nikitov, Dmitry Paison, Valentin Pashin, Fedor Pekhterev, Anatoly Petrovsky, Andrey Polozov-Yablonsky, Alexey Ponomarev, Nikolay Ponomarev-Stepnoy, Vladimir Popov, Alexander Povalko, Alexander Putilov, Adam Rimashevsky, Yury Ryzhov, Alexey Sazonov, Rashid Shagaliev, Alexey Shalkovsky, Vladimir Skulachev, Igor Sokolov, Alexey Soldatov, Dmitry Stambolsky, Kirill Sypalo, Arkady Tishkov, Vsevolod Tkachuk, Mikhail Ugryumov, Yury Urlichich, Vladimir Vasilyev, Boris Velichkovsky, Vasily Velikhov, Roman Vilfand, Eduard Volkov, Viktor Zakharov, Andrey Zemlyanov, Sergey Zhukov. The members of the International Advisory Council on Foresight and Science and Technology Policy, National Research University Higher School of Economics were involved in the discussion of the methodology and results of the study: Luke Georghiou (Chair), Marc Boden, Cristiano Cagnin, Jonathan Calof, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Mario Cervantes, Moonjung Choi, Jose Cordeiro, Kerstin Cuhls, Karel Haegeman, Attila Havas, Michael Keenan, Jonathan Linton, Ian Miles, Riel Miller, Mu Rong Pin, Rafael Popper, Anastassios Pouris, Pierre- Alain Schib, Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca, Philip Shapira, Kuniko Urashima, Angela Wilkinson. Implementation of the foresight study would have been impossible without the active participation of the staff of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics: Mikhail Bokov, Anastasia Edelkina, Konstantin Fursov, Jean Gines, Elena Gutaruk, Galina Kitova, Maxim Kotsemir, Irina Kuznetsova, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Dirk Meissner, Nadezhda Mikova, Yadviga Radomirova, Vitaly Roud, Vladimir Salun, Ruslan Saygitov, Ozcan Saritas, Irina Skorodumova, Maria Sokolova, Thomas Thurner, Natalia Velikanova, Natalia Veselitskaya. Contents CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................11 Organisation and Methodology of the Work .......................................................... 13 Sources of Information to Prepare the Foresight ................................................... 15 Foresight Infrastructure.................................................................................... 15 Discussion and Validation of the Foresight Results ................................................ 16 Use of the Foresight Results .............................................................................. 16 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES ..........................................................................................19 ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................20 1. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY ...................................................21 1.1. Challenges and Opportunities ............................................................................ 21 1.2. Prospective Markets, Products and Services .......................................................... 24 1.3. Promising Research Areas .................................................................................. 35 Computer Architectures and Systems .................................................................. 36 Telecommunication Technologies ....................................................................... 38 Data Processing and Analysis Technologies .......................................................... 39 Element Base, Electronic Devices, Robotics .......................................................... 42 Predictive Modelling, Prospective Systems Functioning ......................................... 44 Information Security ........................................................................................ 45 Algorithms and Software ................................................................................... 47 2. BIOTECHNOLOGY ...................................................................................................49 2.1. Challenges and Opportunities ............................................................................ 49 2.2. Prospective Markets, Products and Services .........................................................
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