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Distribution and Transmission Annual Planning Report December 2020

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Distribution and Transmission Annual Planning Report December 2020 Distribution and Transmission Annual Planning Report December 2020 Disclaimer Ausgrid is registered as both a Distribution Network Service Provider and a Transmission Network Service Provider. This Distribution and Transmission Annual Planning Report 2020 has been prepared and published by Ausgrid under clause 5.13.2 and 5.12.2 of the National Electricity Rules to notify Registered Participants and Interested Parties of the results of the distribution and transmission network annual planning review and should only be used for those purposes. This document does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor or participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market, or any other person or interested parties may require. In preparing this document it is not possible nor is it intended for Ausgrid to have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of each person who reads or uses this document. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this document should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of that information for their own purposes. Accordingly, Ausgrid makes no representations or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability for particular purposes of the information in this document. Persons reading or utilising this document acknowledge that Ausgrid and their employees, agents and consultants shall have no liability (including liability to any person by reason of negligence or negligent misstatement) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this document, except insofar as liability under any New South Wales and Commonwealth statute cannot be excluded. DOCUMENT AND AMENDMENT HISTORY Issue Date Approved by Summary of Changes No. 1 December 2020 Executive Initial Issue General Manager – Asset Management Contact For all enquiries regarding the Distribution and Transmission Annual Planning Report 2020 and for making written submissions contact: Ausgrid Head of Asset Investment GPO Box 4009 Sydney NSW 2001 Email: [email protected] i Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 1 2 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 2 2.1 About Ausgrid ................................................................................................................................. 2 2.1.1 Our purpose and vision ............................................................................................................. 2 2.1.2 Our operating environment ........................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Ausgrid’s network ............................................................................................................................ 4 2.2.1 Number and types of network assets ........................................................................................ 4 2.3 Annual planning review ................................................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 Distribution ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.3.2 Transmission ............................................................................................................................. 6 2.3.3 Distribution and Transmission Annual Planning Review and Reporting .................................... 6 2.4 Ausgrid’s planning approach ........................................................................................................... 6 2.4.1 Investment objectives and decision criteria ............................................................................... 7 2.4.2 Network planning process ......................................................................................................... 8 2.4.3 Network area plans ................................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Significant changes from previous DTAPR ..................................................................................... 9 2.6 Distribution System Limitations Template – Online Data ................................................................ 9 3 FORECASTS FOR THE FORWARD PLANNING PERIOD .......................................................................11 3.1 Data tables online ..........................................................................................................................11 3.2 Zone and Subtransmission substation load forecasting methodology ...........................................12 3.2.1 Spatial trend component of forecast .........................................................................................12 3.2.2 System level econometric model component of forecast .........................................................13 3.2.3 Assumptions applied to substation load forecasts ....................................................................14 3.2.4 Explanation of substation forecast outcomes ...........................................................................16 3.3 Transmission - distribution connection point load forecasts ...........................................................17 3.4 Subtransmission feeder load forecasts ..........................................................................................17 3.5 Primary distribution feeder load forecasts ......................................................................................18 3.5.1 Load transfer capacities of zone substations ...........................................................................18 3.6 Other factors having a material impact on the network ..................................................................18 3.6.1 Fault levels ...............................................................................................................................18 3.6.2 Voltage levels ...........................................................................................................................19 3.6.3 Other power system security requirements ..............................................................................19 3.6.4 Quality of supply .......................................................................................................................19 3.6.5 Embedded generation ..............................................................................................................19 3.7 Additional notes .............................................................................................................................20 3.7.1 Integrated System Plan ............................................................................................................20 4 NETWORK ASSET RETIREMENTS AND DERATINGS ...........................................................................21 4.1 Feeder S20 and S21 De-rating ......................................................................................................21 5 DISTRIBUTION LOAD AREAS ..................................................................................................................22 5.1 Camperdown and Blackwattle Bay load area.................................................................................23 5.1.1 Description of Camperdown and Blackwattle Bay load area ....................................................23 5.1.2 Identified system limitations......................................................................................................24 5.1.3 Identified Substation and Feeder limitations changes from last year’s DAPR - deferred or committed projects 24 5.2 Canterbury Bankstown load area ...................................................................................................25 5.2.1 Description of Canterbury Bankstown load area ......................................................................25 5.2.2 Identified system limitations......................................................................................................26 5.2.3 Identified Substation and Feeder limitations changes from last year’s DAPR - deferred or committed projects 26 5.3 Carlingford load area .....................................................................................................................27 5.3.1 Description of Carlingford load area .........................................................................................27 5.3.2 Identified system limitations......................................................................................................28 5.3.3 Identified Substation and Feeder limitations changes from last year’s DAPR - deferred or committed projects 28 5.4 Eastern Suburbs load area ............................................................................................................29 5.4.1 Description of Eastern Suburbs load area ................................................................................29 5.4.2 Identified system limitations......................................................................................................30 5.4.3 Identified Substation and
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