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HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants January 2012 for internal circulation only PENANG ISLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET 2012 Research & Forecast Report Rice Miller Hotel & Residence COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybut c herpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 PENANG ISLAND REAL ESTATE MARKET 2012 Economic Update: Overview MARKET Economic growth in Malaysia is expected to remain stable, with projected gross SENTIMENT domestic product (GDP) of between 5% and 6% in 2012 despite the adverse INDICATORS impact of the US-Eurozone problems. Asia is expected to stay on a robust growth path. 1 RESIDENTIAL 2 RETAIL 3 INDUSTRIAL/ WAREHOUSE Source: Trading Economics / Napic 4 According to the Economic Report 2011/2012, the Malaysian economic growth OFFICE would be largely domestic driven amidst rising uncertainties in the global economy. Overall, the government expects the country's strong economic fundamentals, pragmatic macroeconomic policies and the Economic Transformation Programme 5 (ETP) to enhance domestic sources of growth. The construction sector is expected PRE-WAR/ to grow at a stronger pace of 7% in 2012 as large infrastructure projects and HERITAGE housing construction activities pick up. 2012 Budget introduced a review of the Real Property Gains Tax (RPTG) to curb speculation, whereby properties held and disposed within two years, the tax rate is 10%. For properties held and disposed within a period exceeding two years and up to five years, the rate is 5%. This is expected to help reduce property speculation and promote a more stable, healthy and orderly growth in the housing industry. To further curb speculation, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has imposed a Loan to Value (LTV) ratio of 70% to borrowers for the financing of the 3rd property and beyond. Bank Negara Malaysia has also proposed to local Gurney Drive financial institutions to assess income affordability based on net income instead of gross income. These measures are expected to moderate excessive investment and speculation in the property market and to ensure the affordability of homes to genuine buyers. Some analysts concur that the property sector might see some signs of a slowdown in the sales activity due to measures by BNM to curb property speculation and the anticipated slower pace of economic growth in 2012 and its concomitant effects. COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 Inflation Domestic headline inflation was 3.4% towards the end of 2011. Going forward, inflation is expected to remain stable and moderate in 2012. In view of the prospects of weaker growth, the Central Bank is expected to loosen its monetary policy stance in 2012. Inflation is expected to remain at 3 – 3.5%. Source: Trading Economics Interest Rates Bank Negara has maintained the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3% but cautioned that international financial developments could affect the overall growth prospects of the local economy. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) expects the Central Bank to cut the benchmark OPR further to 2.5%. BNM anticipates that while the domestic economy is expected to expand, unfavorable external factors could affect the overall growth prospects of the Malaysian economy. Source: Trading Economics COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 Unemployment Rate In 2011 the unemployment rate in Malaysia was reported at 3.3 percent. From 1998 until 2010, Malaysia's Unemployment Rate averaged 3.43 percent reaching an historical high of 4.50 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 2.90 percent in March of 1998. Source: Trading Economics The labor force is defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking work. The non labor force includes those who are not looking for work, those who are institutionalized and those serving in the military. Island Plaza, Tanjung Tokong COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 RESIDENTIAL While official statistics on the property market from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is expected to be available soon, we anticipate this sector to remain cautiously optimistic in 2012. Similar to previous years, the residential sector retained the lion’s share of the property market in Penang in terms of total value and volume of transactions. Andaman @ Quayside Value of Property Transactions in Penang Island 2011 Source: Napic/Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) Research COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 Volume of Property Transactions in Penang Island 2011 Source: Napic/Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) Research While 2012 is expected to have less buzz compared to last year, conventional wisdom among the local astute investors dictate that buying properties in choice locations in Penang is still the preferred mode for wealth creation. However, compressed yields on the back of an anticipated capital growth will continue to dominate investment decisions. The euphoria in the property market in 2010 and the 1st half of 2011 is unlikely to prevail although consumer confidence in Penang’s residential real estate remains high. Sentiments are anticipated to remain cautiously optimistic whilst the general propensity for property investments is still strong for residential homes not only in the traditionally preferred locations but also for well-conceptualized homes of high quality specification, finishes, good security features and facilities. On the back of a good mix of euphoria and controversy, the Penang diasporas and the international community particularly from Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan and UK constitute significant components of the market. MM2H participants and retirees have identified Penang as a preferred destination of choice due to its low cost and high standards of living, widely spoken English language, the availability of an international standard health care system, political and economic stability, and is disaster free either natural or manmade. Penang Island has endeared itself as a destination for a second home and is sometimes being compared to Hua Hin of Thailand. COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 Foreign Interest Penang property prices are amongst the lowest in the region and this has made it attractive for foreigners to invest in Penang Island properties. Foreigners currently comprise less than 8% of the total residential property buyers in Penang. This segment of the market is expected to grow in tandem with the “new normal” of Penang endearing itself to the international community as a tourism, retirement and 2nd home paradise. Foreign Interest in Penang Real Estate as at Q2 2011 Source: www.malaysiapropertyinc.com Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Cambodia China Taiwan Country Singapore India Japan Hong Kong $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 Price per. sq. m in USD Source: Global Property Guide COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) JANUARY 2012 Recent amendments to the Housing Development (Control and Licensing) Act 1966 to prevent project abandonment will give property buyers peace of mind when they purchase real estate in Malaysia. The majority of the current supply of residential properties in Penang Island is mostly stratified. Landed properties constitute approximately 16% of the total supply in the North East District, while in the South West District they are approximately 56%. Penang Island Existing Residential Property Supply @Q3 2011P Source: Napic/Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) Research Future supply sees an almost similar trend. Penang Island Future Residential Property Supply @Q3 2011P Source: Napic/Henry Butcher Malaysia (Penang) Research COPYRIGHT 2012 HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. www.henrybutcherpenang.com HENRY BUTCHER MALAYSIA (PENANG) SDN. BHD. International Asset Consultants RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT (FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY) ! JANUARY 2012 Compared to the various housing types, the best performing sub PROJECTS’ PIPELINE market is the terrace house. Prices in Penang Island have appreciated KL based property developers have significantly. This has made terrace houses the most sought after form set their sights on Penang Island and of property investment on the island. However most terrace houses this is seen as a vote of confidence for the local real estate scene. are under owner occupation. However, procuring suitable land banks in Penang remains a major
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