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FFI FACTS March 2018 - Design /production: FFI Photo: FMS FFI Photo: - Design /production: 2018 March

Norway and UN Trends

The number of UN peacekeepers worldwide is at its highest since the end of the Cold . In , however, there has been a shift in prioritizations from UN to NATO operations.

UN Peacekeeping Works tributions. Since 2000, Norway has in- Brief Points UN Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKO) creased its contributions to NATO, while it  with civilian protection mandates have has decreased its contributions to UN Peacekeeping is a cost-effective become an essential part of the inter- operations. As Norway is pursuing a seat at instrument to prevent conflicts national community’s efforts to alleviate the the UN Security Council table in 2021–2022,  From 1999 to 2015, the global consequences of armed conflicts and to end internal motivations and external expecta- number of peacekeepers increased attacks against civilians. Organized as ex- tions might alter these priorities. from 12.000 to 107.000

pansive civilian-military-political arrange-  ments, UNPKOs address aspects of human Until recently, we did not know much about From the mid-1990s to 2017, security, including providing local health the overall effect of UN peacekeeping opera- Norwegian UN uniformed personnel deployments decreased from around care, reporting violations, and tions on human security across cases and 1.500 to 69.

protecting civilians from physical violence time.  using military force. Norway has continuously been active Recent studies have found that the deploy- in 5 to 9 peacekeeping operations every year since 1990. Norway has been a steady contributor to ment of UNPKOs leads to a reduction in con-  UNPKOs. However, Norway today con- flict intensity and an increase in the duration Since 2000, there has been a definite tributes with far less personnel than previ- of post-conflict . UNPKOs are also shift in Norway’s contributions from ously, and focuses on deploying niche con- found to reduce the propensity of conflicts UN- to NATO-led operations.

Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends for spreading across borders. In particular, research has found that large UNPKOs with Figure1: robust mandates have a strong conflict- Left panel shows the number of deployed UN peacekeeping personnel per year. Right reducing effect. panel shows the number of ongoing armed conflicts per year.

Preliminary findings also suggest that the presence of UNPKOs improves local health 10 000 50 conditions. Overall, without UN peace- 9000 8000 40 keeping, research indicates that we would 7000 have seen considerably more deadly con- 6000 30 flicts in the world. As such, measured along 5000 the most important criteria, UN peace 4000 20 3000 operations appear to successfully improve Conflicts Number of UN Personnel Contributions UN Personnel 2000 10 human security in contemporary armed 1000 conflicts, and to stop conflicts from recur- 0 0

ring. 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Troops Financially, the UN peacekeeping budget is Internationalized Intrastate 7.87 billion USD, reflecting that 0.47 percent Intrastate Observers Interstate of spending on peacekeeping along with more robust mandates have a strong pacify- ing effect on conflict. Thus, it remains -un known how the 500 million USD cut in the Figure 2: 2017–2018 peacekeeping budget will impact Number of deployed pesonnel by UN bloc operational capacity. While the proposed to cut 1 billion USD, a 11000 compromise was made, requiring the UN 10000 Security Council to assure that though some 9000 missions would be cut, operational capacity 8000 7000 will be protected and preserved. 6000 5000 Conflict and Peacekeeping Trends 4000 3000 While the general trend in the number of 2000 armed conflicts has decreased following the Contributions UN Personnel 1000 end of the , the number of UN 0 peacekeepers has grown tenfold. Figure 1 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 2017 (right panel) shows that the dominant form of conflict today is internal armed conflicts Eastern European Group Eastern European and Others Group fought within the confined territory of a Asia-Pacific Group Latin American and Caribbean Group country. The graph reveals that, except during the last three years, the world has become more peaceful. It remains to be seen tions to former , , After growing steadily throughout the 2000s whether the peak in recent years is the end , Liberia, and . In September and 2010s, the number of deployed peace- of the general trend or an outlier from the 1994, an all-time high of 78,946 UN peace- keepers reached an all-time high in April downward trend. In the same post-Cold War keepers were deployed, which by April 1999 2015 with 107,805 deployed personnel. At period, the number of deployed personnel to fell to 12,158. With the start of the new the beginning of 2017, 100,231 uniformed UN Peacekeeping Operations has increased millennium, UNPKO received new man- UN personnel were deployed across 21 from 12,000 to 100,000, indicating increased dates, and the budget grew, increasing the UNPKOs. However, by April 2017, the willingness from UN member states to number of missions and troops deployed. number had fallen to 96,865 distributed over contribute more to UNPKOs. This increase also came in the wake of 20 UNPKOs. significant reform activities in the UN, in Figure 1 (left panel) shows that the total particular the 2000 Brahimi report, The number of troop contributions by coun- number of UN peacekeepers deployed recommending that future operations re- try varies significantly, with member states globally increased sharply in the mid-1990s, ceive adequate resources and equipment if in the Global South bearing the larger primarily driven by significant contribu- they are to succeed. burden. As shown in Figure 2, the Western

Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends European and Others Group (WEOG) was a significant contributor to operations in the Figure 3: 1990s, but has now become a minor contri- The number of international operations, by the type of operation, with Norwegian contri- butor to PKO troops. Following the turn of butions since 1947. the millennium, the African and Asia- Pacific UN blocs have become by far the most 20 dominant troop contributors.

15 At the end of May 1991, the WEOG bloc con- tributed with 71 percent of the total number 10 of deployed personnel to UNPKOs. After the start of 2012, the WEOG bloc has 5 contributed with less than 7 percent of the total number of deployed personnel every 0 month. Meanwhile, the African and Asia-Pacific group now constitute over 87 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 percent of the deployed UN peacekeeping personnel. Financially, the WEOG bloc UN NATO Coalition Other contributed with almost 60 percent of the 2016 UNPKO budget, while the remaining Figure 4: countries contributed with 40 percent. Norwegian participation in UN operations (left) and NATO operations (right) from 1990. Thus, countries that provide substantial The figure shows both the number of operations (columns) and the average number of financial contribution and countries with Norwegian personnel (line) every year. significant personnel contributions rarely overlap. 10 6000 10 6000 Norway in International Operations 9 9 5000 5000 Since 1945 8 8 7 7 4000 4000 Norway has been an active contributor to 6 6 international operations since the Second 5 3000 5 3000 . In total, Norway has contributed 4 4 2000 2000 to 102 international operations, where the 3 3 2 2 troop contributions have included every- 1000 1000 1 1 thing from unarmed observers to robust 0 0 0 0 combat units. 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 1992 1992 2010 2010 1996 1996 2002 2002 1990 1990 1994 1994 1998 1998 2006 2006 2000 2000 2004 2004 2008 2008

Figure 3 shows how Norway’s UNPKO UN operations with Norwegian personnel (Left axis) NATO operations with Norwegian personnel (Left axis) commitments changed character after the Norwegian personnel (Right axis) Norwegian personnel (Right axis) Cold War. The number of operations Norway participated in increased significantly: 86 percent of all Norwegian contributions to operation, Operation Anchor Guard, took Norwegian personnel in total. After that, the international operations started after 1990. place in and started in August 1990. most significant contributions started after Also, the diversity increased, both concern- 1990 and were all commitments to NATO ing the type of operation Norway contrib- Norway’s most significant contribution to an operations: the International Security uted to (UN, NATO, Other), and the type of international operation, regarding the Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, and contributions Norway deployed. One of the number of personnel, was the Independent Force (KFOR) and Stabilization reasons for this was the increased number Norwegian Brigade Group in Germany after Force (SFOR) in the Balkans. of international operations in the world the Second World War. Norway contributed after 1990 – both UN and NATO operations with 12 brigades during the years 1947–1953. Norway and UN Peacekeeping Operations – but also the broader spectrum of opera- The two next most significant contributions Norway promotes itself as a peace nation tions that required more diverse types of were UN operations: UN Interim Force in and contributes to a relatively stable contributions. (UNIFIL) and UN Emergency number of UN operations. For every month Force (UNEF I) in . Both were long- between 2006 and 2017, Norway has For instance, NATO conducted no opera- term commitments and resource intensive, consistently been active in six to nine opera- tions during the Cold War. The first NATO with respectively about 22,500 and 11,000 tions. Figure 4 shows the sum of interna-

Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends tional operations with Norwegian contribu- the number of personnel and the number of for 2021–2022 are Ireland and . tions for each year since 1990, along with operations. However, unlike previous con- In April 2017, Ireland had 530 deployed posi- personnel contributions. The number of tributions, Norway now prioritized contri- tions in UNPKOs. Canada, on the other Norwegian personnel contributions to the butions with niche capabilities to the UN, hand, had 105 deployed personnel, but has UN was reduced drastically in the mid- consisting of few personnel, but in critical signaled a renewed commitment to contrib- 1990s. This was both a consequence of the positions. This involved the deployment of, ute more to UNPKOs. decreased number of deployed UN for example, Hercules C-130 transport air- personnel (Figure 1) and as result of craft to Mali (MINUSMA) in 2016, analysts If we compare Norway’s contributions to Norway’s Defence Plan where NATO to Mali, a field hospital and well drilling en- those of and Finland, the trends are received priority as the cornerstone of gineers to Chad from 2009 to 2010, and in similar, showing a decrease since the start of Norwegian security and defence policy. general the deployment of Norwegian offic- the new millennium. However, in absolute ers to UN . numbers, Norway is contributing the least As can be seen in Figure 4, Norway’s among the three neighbors. In April 2017, contributions shifted from UN operations The Future of Norwegian Peacekeeping Norway had 66 deployed positions in to NATO operations around 1994. Although Following the end of the 1990s, Norway has UNPKOs. In comparison, Sweden had 254 the majority of international operations contributed with less personnel to UNPKOs, and Finland had 202. Norway has contributed to has been reflecting a shift from UN- to NATO-led in- UN-led, the most significant troop contribu- ternational operations. While Norway is still tions have been deployed to NATO opera- engaged in a relatively similar number of tions, especially in the Balkans and in operations with the UN as in the 1990s, Contacts: Afghanistan. Since 1990, Norway has on Norway’s contributions to UNPKOs now Andreas Forø Tollefsen is Senior average deployed twice as many soldiers and focus on logistics and technology, rather Researcher at Peace Research Institute officers per NATO operation compared to a than deploying ground troops. This reflects Oslo (PRIO) and associated UN operation. strategic priorities in the Norwegian Long- researcher at the Norwegian Defence Term Defence Plan. As Norway is currently Research Establishment (FFI). Even though the UN significantly increased ramping up its campaign for the UN Secu- E-mail: [email protected] its number of deployed UN personnel after rity Council candidature in 2021–2022, this the year 2000 (Figure 1), Norway has not could change external expectations and in- Elin Marthinussen Gustavsen is a increased its personnel contributions. ternal motivation for Norway to increase its principal scientist at FFI. Norway slightly increased its participation UNPKO contributions. Other countries that Email: in UN operations after 2005, both regarding pursue the UN Security Council candidature [email protected]

Norwegian Defence Research Establishment , P.O. Box 25, N-2027 Kjeller, Tel: +47 63 80 70 00 Office address: Instituttveien 20, N-2007 Kjeller