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Malaysia Daybreak | 29 August 2013

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Malaysia Daybreak | 29 August 2013 REGIONAL DAILY December 26, 2012 MALAYSIA Malaysia Daybreak | 29 August 2013 Key Metrics ▌What’s on the Table… —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— FBMKLCI Index MY E.G. Services - My earnings growth continues 1,850 MyEG’s final results were in line, with FY6/13 core net profit at 101% of our 1,800 forecast. Profit margins continued to improve, mainly due to economies of scale. 1,750 The proposed custom service tax monitoring project is targeted to start in early 1,700 2014. We raise our FY14-15 EPS by 9-12% to reflect stronger growth prospects 1,650 for the FWPR and VVTS services. This increases our target price, which is still 1,600 based on 18.7x 2014 P/E, a 20% premium over our target market P/E in view of 1,550 its 31.6% 3-year EPS CAGR. MyEG remains an Outperform, potentially Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 catalysed by the successful implementation of the CSTM network in early 2014 ——————————————————————————— and new services. FBMKLCI Supermax Corp - Great recovery 1686.17 -15.07pts -0.89% AUG Futures SEP Futures 1684 - (-0.33%) 1674 - (0.99%) 1H13 EPS rose by 17.1% yoy on the back of a 35.4% yoy increase in revenue as ——————————————————————————— Supermax benefited from additional capacity, more efficient refurbished lines Gainers Losers Unchanged and a better product mix. At 50% of our and consensus full-year estimates, 275 625 270 ——————————————————————————— 1H13 earnings are within expectations. We maintain our earnings estimates Turnover but raise our target price as we now apply a CY14 P/E of 13x, based on a 30% 2242.84m shares / RM3373.417m discount (prev. 40%) to Hartalega’s target P/E. The higher contribution from 3m avg volume traded 1723.28m shares 3m avg value traded RM#N/A N/Am nitrile and surgical gloves following its expansion will widen its margin and ——————————————————————————— narrow the margin gap with Hartalega. Supermax remains an Outperform as its Regional Indices current FY13 P/E of 10x is not reflective of its fundamentals. FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI 1,686 3,004 4,026 1,276 21,525 BIMB Holdings - Unrivalled financing growth ———————————————————————————————— Market Indices At 47% of our full-year forecast (46% of consensus), BIMB’s 1H13 net profit met Close % chg YTD % chg our expectations. Also in line was its interim net DPS of 3.5 sen. We are FBMKLCI 1,686.17 (0.9) (0.2) FBM100 11,432.87 (1.0) 1.2 particularly positive on its healthy topline growth of 13.3% yoy in 1H13. Our FBMSC 14,029.56 (0.6) 22.2 DDM-based target price (cost of equity 13.5%) is intact. We reaffirm our FBMMES 4,858.54 (2.0) 15.3 Dow Jones 14,824.51 0.3 13.1 Outperform rating, with catalysts expected from robust loan growth, healthy NASDAQ 3,593.35 0.4 19.0 topline expansion and potential accretion from its proposed acquisition of an FSSTI 3,004.18 (1.0) (5.1) FTSE-100 6,430.06 (0.2) 9.0 additional stake in Bank Islam (BI), which will be financed by a rights issue. Hang Seng 21,524.65 (1.6) (5.0) Factoring in the BI deal, our target price rises to RM5.07, 24.1% above its ex-all JCI 4,026.48 1.5 (6.7) KOSPI 1,884.52 (0.1) (5.6) market price of RM4.09. Nikkei 225 13,338.46 (1.5) 28.3 PCOMP 5,738.06 (3.0) (1.3) Ann Joo Resources - Negative externalities SET 1,275.76 (1.4) (8.3) Shanghai 2,101.30 (0.1) (7.4) Genting Plantations - Maiden profit from Indonesia Taiwan 7,824.54 0.0 1.6 Top Actives Media Chinese Int'l - Hurt by interest expense Close % chg Vol. (m) Media Prima Bhd - Boosted by election spending MALAYSIAN AIRLIN 0.310 0.0 131.8 DAYA MATERIALS 0.300 5.3 54.1 UEM SUNRISE BHD 2.330 (3.3) 47.5 Mudajaya Group - Delays don’t dim prospects TH HEAVY ENGINEE 0.735 (0.7) 44.8 CIMB GROUP HOLDI 7.110 (3.7) 39.0 Oriental Holdings - Losses from auto division again SONA PETROLEUM B 0.405 3.8 38.8 INSTACOM GROUP B 0.290 (23.7) 34.8 Prestariang - More goodies in the pipeline? SAPURAKENCANA 3.370 4.0 34.5 Economic Statistics ▌News of the Day… Close % chg —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— US$/Euro 1.3340 0.00 • SC reprimands two auditors RM/US$ (Spot) 3.3346 (0.05) RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.4095 0.50 • Supermax to benefit from weaker Ringgit OPR (% ) 2.94 (2.00) BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.60 0.00 • Kulim takes PNG's Securities Commission to court GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,418 0.00 • UDA eyes Pekeliling development WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 110.10 1.00 CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 2,480 0.69 • Support for increase in real property gains tax (RPGT) ———————————————————————————————————————— • Naim aims for RM1bn in property investments Terence WONG CFA • Maxis offer career transition scheme for selected employees T (60) 3 20849689 E [email protected] Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Daybreak Malaysia August 29, 2013 Global Economic News… The US MBA purchase applications index rose 2.0% wow in the 23 Aug week (1.0% in the earlier week), whilst the refinance index lost 5.0% wow (-8.0% in the prior week). (Bloomberg) The US pending home sales index lost 1.3% mom in Jul (a revised -0.4% in Jun), worse than consensus of -1.0%. (Bloomberg) Eurozone's M3 money supply growth grew 2.2% yoy in Jul, slowing from 2.4% in Jun. Economists expected an increase of 2.4%. (RTT News) Thailand’s manufacturing output slid 4.5% yoy in Jul (-3.2% in Jun), worse than the 1.9% expected by economists. Capacity utilization slid to 64.6% from 64.9%. (Bloomberg) Resale prices of private homes in Singapore climbed 0.2% mom in July from June, reversing two straight months of declines. In June, resale home prices declined 0.1%. (CNA) The government's latest measures aimed at Singapore’s public housing resale market will boost leasing activity. The new rules bar new permanent residents (PRs) from buying HDB resale flats till three years after they have obtained their permanent residential status in Singapore. With immediate effect, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) has shortened its maximum loan tenure to 25 years (from 30 years) and the mortgage servicing ratio (MSR) limit has also been cut to 30% (from 35%) of the borrower's gross monthly salary. (CNA) Indonesia’s central bank is expected to hike its benchmark rate at a meeting on Thursday called to try to calm jitters about the weakening economy and stabilize the rupiah. (Jakarta Globe) Malaysian Economic News… The government will introduce outcome-based budgeting (OBB) in the ministries of Finance, Health and International Trade and Industry in efforts to further enhance prudential management of government expenditure, Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah said. The three major ministries would form part of the pilot programme for OBB, he said. There is increasing concern over property market imbalances, rising household indebtedness, rising Government debt and fiscal deficit, he said. However, he said, the government was committed to achieving the three guiding principles of fiscal policy, i.e. ensuring the Federal Government debt does not exceed 55% of GDP, that revenue will always exceed operating expenditure, and the fiscal deficit for 2013 will not exceed 4% of GDP. For 2013, he said, the government has allocated a substantial sum for subsidies, incentives and social assistance. The government is exploring measures to rationalise and better target expenditure, including subsidies, to ensure value-for-money spending. 2 Daybreak Malaysia August 29, 2013 Projects that will have a big impact on public finances will also be reviewed and sequenced properly, to avoid excessive strain on the Federal Budget, he said. Public sector projects with low import content and high multiplier effects will be given priority, without compromising economic growth. The Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC), chaired by PM Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, would meet next week to further discuss measures to strengthen the country's current economic position. The meeting will table for approval various initiatives and options to ensure Malaysia's economic and fiscal position is strong and sustainable, both in the immediate and medium term, he added. The key areas that will be discussed are better expenditure management (subsidies rationalisation), revenue enhancement (GST implementation and RPGT review), as well as improving governance and work processes. A statement will be issued following the outcome of the meeting. In the longer term, the government plans to introduce a comprehensive social safety net system. In addition, other possible areas that can be considered include moving from blanket subsidies to a more targeted system. (Bernama) Despite the weaker global economic growth, Malaysia has recorded RM97.4bn in approved investments for the 1H13 compared with RM75bn in 1H12. The services sector constituted the bulk of investments approved amounting to RM58.1bn or 59.7%, followed by the manufacturing sector 23.1% (RM22.5bn) and primary sector 17.2% (RM16.8bn). Domestic investments amounted to RM66.7bn or 68.5% of total approved investments while foreign investments totalled RM30.7bn. Top foreign direct investor was the US with RM5.2bn followed by Singapore with RM2.15bn, Japan RM2.13bn, South Korea RM1.72bn and the EU RM1.53bn.
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