World Motorcycles

INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS CLICK TO VIEW

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World Motorcycles

Industry Study with Forecasts for 2011 & 2016

Study #2251 | November 2007 | $5400 | 290 pages

The Freedonia Group 767 Beta Drive www.freedoniagroup.com Cleveland, OH • 44143-2326 • USA Toll Free US Tel: 800.927.5900 or +1 440.684.9600 Fax: +1 440.646.0484 E-mail: [email protected] Study #2251 November 2007 World Motorcycles $5400 290 Pages Industry Study with Forecasts for 2011 & 2016

Table of Contents

Executive Summary Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 90 Chongqing Lifan Industry...... 241 Italy...... 93 Dachangjiang Group...... 242 France...... 99 Daelim Industrial...... 243 Market EnvironmenT Germany...... 103 Ducati Motor...... 244 General...... 4 Spain...... 109 Eicher Motors...... 245 World Economic Overview...... 5 United Kingdom...... 112 Geely International...... 246 World Demographic Outlook...... 10 Other Western Europe...... 117 Harley-Davidson Incorporated...... 247 World Population Outlook...... 11 Honda Motor Company...... 250 World Urban Population Outlook...... 12 ASIA/PACIFIC Hong Leong Industries Berhad...... 254 Households...... 13 JAWA Moto spol sro...... 256 World Consumer Spending Outlook...... 15 General...... 121 Jianshe Industry Group...... 257 World Light Vehicle Overview...... 17 Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 125 Kawasaki Heavy Industries...... 258 Light Vehicle Production...... 18 China...... 128 KTM Power Sports...... 261 Light Vehicle Sales...... 22 India...... 136 MV Agusta Motor...... 263 Motorcycle Industry Trends...... 24 Indonesia...... 141 Peugeot SA...... 264 Environmental & Regulatory Factors...... 25 Vietnam...... 146 Piaggio & Compan ...... 266 Motorcycle Emissions...... 26 Thailand...... 151 Polaris Industries...... 269 Motorcycle Safety ...... 28 Japan...... 155 Qianjiang Group...... 270 Pricing Trends...... 29 Taiwan...... 160 Segway Incorporated...... 271 Technological Trends...... 31 South Korea...... 165 Suzuki Motor...... 272 Ongoing Shift from 2-Stroke Australia...... 171 Triumph Motorcycles...... 275 to 4-Stroke Engines...... 33 Other Asia/Pacific...... 175 Yamaha Motor Company...... 276 Arrival of Electric Motorbikes...... 35 ZAP...... 282 Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle...... 283 OTHER REGIONS Zongshen Industrial Group...... 284 WORLD OVERVIEW General...... 179 Other Companies in the World General...... 38 Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 180 Motorcycle Industry...... 285 Two Market Models: Developed Latin America...... 182 Versus Emerging...... 39 Brazil...... 187 Historical Context: Japan in the 1950s..40 Other Latin America...... 192 List of Tables/Charts Forecast Model Inputs...... 43 Eastern Europe...... 196 Income Distribution...... 44 Africa/Mideast...... 202 Age & Demographics...... 46 Executive Summary Climate...... 47 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Safety ...... 48 1 Summary Table...... 3 Other Factors...... 49 General...... 208 Cht World Motorcycle Industry Breakdown Model Fit & Implementation...... 51 Industry Composition...... 208 by Units, Sales & Profits, 2006...... 2 Demand by Region...... 54 Market Share...... 212 Demand by Type...... 57 Industry Restructuring...... 214 Market EnvironmenT Production by Region...... 60 Cooperative Agreements...... 216 Foreign Trade in Motorcycles...... 62 Marketing & Distribution...... 221 1 World Gross Domestic Product Research & Product Development...... 223 by Region...... 10 Manufacturing...... 224 2 World Population by Region...... 12 NORTH AMERICA Competitive Strategies...... 227 3 World Urban Population...... 13 General...... 65 Industry Globalization Trends...... 230 4 World Households by Region...... 15 Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 68 5 World Personal Consumption Expenditures...... 17 United States...... 70 Company Profiles Canada...... 76 6 World Light Vehicle Production...... 21 Mexico...... 81 American IronHorse Motorcycle...... 234 7 World Light Vehicle Sales...... 24 Bajaj Auto...... 235 8 Sales-Weighted Motorcycle Bayerische Motoren Werke...... 237 Manufacturer Pricing...... 31 WESTERN EUROPE Big Dog Motorcycles...... 238 9 World Motorcycle Engine Type...... 35 General...... 87 Bimota SpA...... 239 China Jialing Industrial...... 240 (continued on next page)

Click here to purchase online Page Order now, click here! Study #2251 November 2007 World Motorcycles $5400 290 Pages Industry Study with Forecasts for 2011 & 2016 List of Tables/Charts (continued from previous page)

WORLD OVERVIEW 2 Western Europe Motorcycle 20 Australia Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 93 Demand by Type...... 174 Cht Motorcycle Versus Passenger Car Sales 3 Italy Motorcycle Supply & Demand.....96 21 Other Asia/Pacific Motorcycle Trend -- Japan, 1950 to 2000...... 41 4 Italy Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 98 Supply & Demand...... 177 Cht Ratio of Motorcycle to Passenger Car 5 France Motorcycle Supply & Demand 101 22 Other Asia/Pacific Motorcycle Sales -- Japan, 1950 to 2000...... 42 6 France Motorcycle Demand by Type.. 103 Demand by Type...... 178 Cht Relationship of GDP per Capita to 7 Germany Motorcycle Relative Motorcycle Sales Supply & Demand ...... 106 Dominance -- Japan, 1950 to 1970 43 8 Germany Motorcycle OTHER REGIONS Cht Relationship of Income Distribution Demand by Type...... 108 1 Other Regions Motorcycle to GDP per Capita, 2006...... 45 9 Spain Motorcycle Supply & Demand 110 Supply & Demand...... 180 Cht Median Age Level in Selected 10 Spain Motorcycle Demand by Type... 112 2 Other Regions Motorcycle Countries, 2006...... 47 11 United Kingdom Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 182 Cht US Motorcycle Accident Fatality Supply & Demand...... 115 3 Latin America Motorcycle Rates, 1994 to 2006...... 48 12 United Kingdom Motorcycle Supply & Demand...... 185 Cht US Motorcyclist Traffic Fatalities Demand by Type...... 116 4 Latin America Motorcycle by Age Group, 1995 & 2005...... 49 13 Other Western Europe Motorcycle Demand by Type...... 187 Cht Comparison of GDP per Capita Supply & Demand...... 118 5 Brazil Motorcycle Supply & Demand 190 & Motorcycle Dominance, 14 Other Western Europe Motorcycle 6 Brazil Motorcycle Demand by Type... 192 2002 to 2006...... 52 Demand by Type...... 120 7 Other Latin America Motorcycle Cht Typical Motorcycle Market Transition Supply & Demand...... 194 Point -- Selected Countries, 2006...54 ASIA/PACIFIC 8 Other Latin America Motorcycle 1 World Motorcycle Demand by Region..56 Demand by Type...... 195 Cht World Motorcycle Demand 1 Asia/Pacific Motorcycle 9 Eastern Europe Motorcycle by Region, 2006...... 57 Supply & Demand...... 125 Supply & Demand...... 199 2 World Motorcycle Demand by Type.....59 2 Asia/Pacific Motorcycle 10 Eastern Europe Motorcycle Cht World Motorcycle Demand Demand by Type...... 128 Demand by Type...... 201 by Type, 2006...... 59 3 China Motorcycle Supply & Demand 132 11 Africa/Mideast Motorcycle 3 World Motorcycle Production 4 China Motorcycle Demand by Type... 136 Supply & Demand...... 205 by Region...... 61 5 India Motorcycle Supply & Demand.. 139 12 Africa/Mideast Motorcycle Cht World Motorcycle Production 6 India Motorcycle Demand by Type.... 141 Demand by Type...... 207 by Region, 2006...... 62 7 Indonesia Motorcycle 4 World Motorcycle Net Exports Supply & Demand...... 144 by Region...... 64 8 Indonesia Motorcycle INDUSTRY STRUCTURE Demand by Type...... 146 1 Sales of Selected Motorcycle NORTH AMERICA 9 Vietnam Motorcycle Producers, 2006...... 211 Supply & Demand...... 148 Cht 2006 World Motorcycle 1 North America Motorcycle 10 Vietnam Motorcycle Market Share...... 214 Supply & Demand...... 68 Demand by Type...... 150 2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 216 2 North America Motorcycle 11 Thailand Motorcycle 3 Selected Cooperative Agreements.... 218 Demand by Type...... 70 Supply & Demand...... 153 Cht Honda Motorcycle Production 3 United States Motorcycle 12 Thailand Motorcycle Globalization Timeline...... 226 Supply & Demand...... 73 Demand by Type...... 155 Cht Global Motorcycle Industry Minimum 4 United States Motorcycle 13 Japan Motorcycle Supply & Demand 158 Efficient Scale Analysis, 2006...... 227 Demand by Type...... 76 14 Japan Motorcycle Demand by Type... 160 Cht Profitability Trends -- Global Vs. 5 Canada Motorcycle Supply & Demand 78 15 Taiwan Motorcycle Regional Players, 1998 to 2006.... 230 6 Canada Motorcycle Demand by Type...80 Supply & Demand...... 163 Cht Globalization Levels in Units 7 Mexico Motorcycle Supply & Demand..84 16 Taiwan Motorcycle Demand by Type 165 Versus Dollars, 2006...... 231 8 Mexico Motorcycle Demand by Type....86 17 South Korea Motorcycle Cht Honda Global Sales Supply & Demand...... 168 Distribution, 2006...... 232 WESTERN EUROPE 18 South Korea Motorcycle Cht World Motorcycle Industry Breakdown Demand by Type...... 170 by Units, Sales & Profits, 2006..... 233 1 Western Europe Motorcycle 19 Australia Motorcycle Supply & Demand...... 90 Supply & Demand...... 173

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Developing markets will see the fastest growth in motorcycle demand based on rising income levels and the introduction of higher quality machines featuring the latest technologies.

Global demand to rise 6% Asia/Pacific World Motorcycle Demand, 2006 annually through 2011 82% Global demand for motorcycles is (44.3 million units) forecast to advance 6.0 percent annually to 59 million units in 2011, representing $49 billion in manufacturers’ sales. This growth emanates from a mix of developed market incremental improvements and emerging market expansions. Demand for all categories of motorcycles is expected to remain healthy, despite the plateauing of growth in key markets such as China, which is rapidly transi- tioning away from motorcycles and toward cars for its transportation needs. Other Regions 18% Developing markets Co. Trading American Motorcycle photo courtesy of to see most rapid growth The most rapid growth will occur in developing markets, where rising income Two separate markets exist intensity is increasing, as evidenced by levels and the introduction of higher ongoing price wars in China, Vietnam, quality machines featuring the latest Two separate motorcycle markets exist. Indonesia, Thailand and other Southeast technologies will fuel demand. This The first centers on the industrialized Asian markets. In general, the motor- growth will be tempered in part by the Triad (the US, Japan and Western cycle industry appears to be on the increasing number of restrictions or Europe), where motorcycles are seen as verge of a major correction as growth outright bans on motorcycle use in urban pleasure vehicles by consumers who rates moderate, which will likely cause areas in Asia. In developed markets, fuel already have one or more automobiles. numerous players to exit the market or prices and increasing restrictions on car The other, much larger market in unit be taken over. While Asia is dominant in use in some regions such as Western terms exists in the emerging economies terms of unit volume, most key players Europe are stoking interest in the of Asia, Latin America and the Africa/ derive far higher revenues per unit from exceptional fuel economy and cost Mideast region, where motorcycles are sales in developed markets such as effectiveness motorcycles offer. While seen as primary family and work ve- North America. The clear profitability the market for large and expensive high hicles. These vehicles are cheaper, implications of this difference reveal why displacement motorcycles will also smaller and much less powerful than so many manufacturers compete so hard remain moderately strong, concerns Triad motorcycles, and often feature few to sell machines in North America. regarding future demand have emerged leading-edge technologies. China has Although North America accounted for due to the aging of the customer base, become a powerhouse in terms of both only three percent of global demand in especially in the United States and demand for and production of these unit terms in 2006, it comprised 24 Western Europe. types of motorcycles. Competitive percent of global sales revenue.

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Sample Text, TABLE VI-5 Table & Chart INDIA MOTORCYCLE SUPPLY & DEMAND

Item 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Population (million persons) 937 1028 1111 1194 1277 GDP/capita 2300 2720 3620 4800 6070

Gross Domestic Product (bil 2005$) 2157 2798 4020 5735 7750 markets Light Vehicle Demand (000) 650 760 1510 2290 3180 With an approximate 50 percent share of India’s motorcycle marketlight vehicles/000 persons 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.5 in 2006, Honda, including its subsidiary Hero Honda, is the leading motorcycles/000 persons 3.3 sa4.1 mple7.6 9.4 9.9 player in the market. This position seems assured going forward, as motorcycle/light vehicle 4.8 5.5 5.6 4.9 4.0 Honda increased its total annual motorcycle production capacity in the table market significantly in 2007. Hero Honda’s SPLENDOR sold nearlyMotorcycle Demand (000) 3100 4200 8400 11200 12600 one million units in 2005, and the company introduced its PLEASURE scooter line in late 2005, and its fuel injected GLAMOUR in 2006. + net exports & sales from inventory 85 290 282 843 1182 Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India sells the ACTIVA scooter in large numbers, and introduced the SHINE light motorcycle in 2006. Motorcycle Production (000) 3185 4490 8682 12043 13782 Demand for scooters, mopeds and motorbikes will increase 1.4 Copyright 2007 The Freedonia Group, Inc. percent annually to 1.5 million units in 2011, driven by new products and rising income levels. These machines have been popular in major metro- politan areas due to their low purchase and operating costs. Many such machines currently on the road are two-stroke designs, although these are being replaced by environmentally cleaner four-stroke technologies. This shift is likely to reduce demand growth somewhat for scooters, mopedssa andmple motorbikes. Larger displacement light motorcycles will remain attractive because four-stroke technologies in scooters, mopeds and motorbikestex bikest will likely provide less power than did two-stroke designs, making these products less attractive than light motorcycles.

Demand for light motorcycles will increase 6.7 percent annually to 9.7 million units in 2011, as incomes rise and attractive new models are CHART VIII-1 introduced. India is in the midst of a transition from two-stroke motorcycles and three-wheelers to four-stroke technology to combat airWORLD pol- MOTORCYCLE MARKET SHARE, 2006 lution, and this shift is helping to generate demand for newer products. ($35.4 billion) Demand for medium and heavy motorcycles will increase 5.9 percent annually to 80,000 units, as new model 250 cc and higher displacement motorcycles are introduced. Demand in this segment is mostly in the medium motorcycle category, with only a relatively small number of 500 22% Honda cc and above motorcycles being sold

9% Suzuki

6% Kawasaki

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Sample Profile, TABLE VI-6 Table & Forecast INDIA MOTORCYCLE DEMAND BY TYPE (thousand units)

Item 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Population (million persons) 937 1028 1111 1194 1277 motorcycles/000 persons 3.3 4.1 7.6 9.4 9.9

Motorcycle Demand 3100 4200sa mple8400 11200 12600 Scooters, Mopeds & Motorbikes 1290 1300 1350 1450 1600 Light Motorcycles 1790 2850 6990 9670 10900 Medium & Heavy Motorcycles 20 t50ab 60le 80 100

$/motorcycle 470 520 570 620 670 Motorcycle Demand (mil $) 1465 2172 4750 6900 8400 COMPANY PROFILES

Sales: $1.7 billion (2006) Geographic Sales: (2006, as percent of total) US 74%, Canada 12% and Other Countries 14% Employment: 3,400 (2006) Key Products: cruising,sa touring,mple sport bikes and standard motorcycles

Polaris Industriesp rdesigns,ofile engineers and manufactures motorcycles, snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles, parts and accessories. The “Demand for motorcycles in India will Company also markets a line of recreational apparel under the PO- increase 5.9 percent annually to 11.2 LARIS brand name. million units in 2011, driven by rising incomes and the continued motorization The Company produces cruising, touring, sport bikes and standard motorcycles under the VICTORY brand name. In 2006, the VICTORY of the subcontinent. Motorcycle demand line accounted for sales of $113 million. Typically, VICTORY utilize remains strong, and continues to rise in Polaris’ FREEDOM V-twin engines, which have engine displacements per capita terms.” of up to 1,721 cubic centimeters. The line includes VEGAS, VEGAS JACKPOT, KINGPIN, HAMMER and 8-BALL. In January 2007, Polaris introduced the VICTORY VISION motorcycle, which is the --Section VI, pg. 139 Company’s first luxury touring model. According to the Company, Copyright 2007 The Freedonia Group, Inc. Polaris’ primary competitors for cruising and touring motorcycles are Harley-Davidson (US), Bayerische Motoren Werke (Germany), Honda Motor (Japan), Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan), Suzuki Motor (Japan) and Yamaha Motor (Japan).

Motorcycles and other products are made at a 23,220-square- meter site in Spirit Lake, Iowa, and at a 57,140-square-meter plant in

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Page 8 The Freedonia Group, Inc. 767 Beta Drive • Cleveland, OH • 44143-2326 • USA • Web site: www.freedoniagroup.com Tel US: 800.927.5900 or +1 440.684.9600 • Fax: +1 440.646.0484 • e-mail: [email protected]