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Impact of Covid-19: Hotel Industry Update

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Impact of Covid-19: Hotel Industry Update Hotel Industry Update COVID-19 Impact Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Inflow of customers drives the Hotel industry. Decline in inflow due to postponement or cancellation of corporate travel – meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) – due to Covid-19 have significantly reduced occupancy levels. Travel restrictions are adding to the slump in demand from both business and leisure travelers, and the fear of infection is keeping people from traveling. This is likely to continue even after the spread is contained. With the fall in occupancy rates lowering margins, hoteliers might decide to reduce room rates to attract customers. However, even bargain fares are less likely to entice those who are scared to travel. Business MICE The global Business travel sector is expected to take a Major events stand cancelled or postponed, including: revenue hit of about USD820bn, with Asia expected to • Dubai Expo 2020 bear the brunt. • Mobile World Congress Barcelona • Google I/O Consumer Other Events UNWTO estimates global international tourist arrivals to Numerous sporting events stand cancelled or postponed: reduce 20-30%, compared to an estimated growth of 3- • Tokyo Olympics 4% forecast in early January 2020, leading to a loss of • Tennis: Wimbledon, French Open, etc. USD300-450bn in international tourism receipts. • Others: Football leagues, NBA, IPL, etc. • NBA (2019-20) season 2 © Evalueserve. All rights reserved. Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Impact of the novel coronavirus on the hospitality ….with the worst-hit countries being an important part of sector is severe… world tourism… • Large-scale quarantines; travel restrictions; postponement A total of 213 countries, areas or territories have reported cases of COVID- and cancelation of events, conferences, conventions, and 19, of which the top-ten affected countries have 36% share of world tourist sports leagues is immediately driving down travel and arrivals, deepening the impact on hospitality industry. The share of world tourism for business and pleasure. Most global destinations tourism receipts and expenditure in these hardest hit nations are 40% and have some form of travel restrictions in place. 50%, respectively. Chart 1: Type of travel restrictions as of 6 April Table 1: Countries with most COVID-19 confirmed cases as of 14 April 2020 Countries with Share of World Tourism Share Share of World Share of World 100% 96% highest COVID‐19 Tourist Arrivals of Exports in Tourism Tourism confirmed cases (%) the Country (%) Receipts (%) Expenditure (%) 80% United States 5% 10% 15% 10% Spain 6% 16% 5% 2% 60% Italy 4% 8% 3% 2% 43% 40% Germany 3% 3% 3% 7% 27% 21% France 6% 8% 4% 3% 20% United Kingdom 3% 6% 4% 5% China 4% 1% 3% 19% % of worldwide destinations worldwide of% 0% Iran 1% 5% 0% 1% Introduction of Complete or Full or partial Travel bans on Turkey 3% 17% 2% 0% travel partial closure suspension of COVID-19 affected Belgium 1% 2% 1% 1% restrictions of borders incoming destinations international flights Total 36% 40% 50% Source: UNWTO Source: UNWTO 3 © Evalueserve. All rights reserved. Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Chart 2: Change in RevPar in Europe on monthly basis …and metrics like occupancy rates, RevPAR and 10.0% 1.5% 1.7% 0.1% 2.6% ADR continue to deteriorate due to the ongoing 0.0% -10.0% -2.4% -2.6% pandemic… -6.5% -20.0% -11.9% -30.0% -40.0% -34.0% -38.7% -37.4% -37.2% -35.7% -50.0% -43.8% Table 2: Occupancy % change vs prior year, Week of the 9-15 March 2020 -60.0% -52.4% % change % change in RevPar -70.0% -80.0% -90.0% -85.5% Italy Greece Luxembourg Spain Netherlands Germany France Belgium Feb-20 Mar-20 Source: STR Chart 3: Change in RevPar in US on weekly basis 10.0% 1.2% 0.0% -10.0% -1.4% -0.2% -20.0% -11.6% -30.0% -40.0% -32.5% -50.0% % % Change -60.0% -70.0% -80.0% -69.6% -90.0% -80.3% 15-Feb 22-Feb 29-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar Source: Atomize Source: STR 4 © Evalueserve. All rights reserved. Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Monthly Global RevPAR % Change - Deteriorating trends Europe 1.5% 1.1% 61.7% North America Asia 1.8% 1.3% 53.4% Middle East 9.6% 43.3% 67.8% North Africa 5.4% 13.0% 57.4% Central America 2.3% 7.1% 59.4% 0.2% 3.4% 58.8% South America excluding Venezuela Australia & Oceania South Africa 6.6% 11.3% 47.8% 0.4% 8.0% 43.3% 5.7% 4.7% 43.3% 5 Jan’20 Feb’20 Mar’20 Source: UNWTO, STR © Evalueserve. All rights reserved. Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Table 3: Impact of drop in US Occupancy % on Jobs and Wages ...triggering unprecedented layoffs and furloughs… Percentage drop in occupancy rate (from average of 66%) • Lodging owners are pulling guidance and cutting expenses Impact -20% -30% -40% -50% as the spread of the virus slashes hotel demand. Total Business Sales -USD370bn -USD558 bn -USD740bn -USD925bn • An estimated 1.73m direct hotel jobs and 6.5m total jobs in Direct hotel jobs -690,000 -1.04m -1.38m -1.73m the US could be eliminated due to a 50% decline in Total Jobs* -2.6m -3.9m -5.2m -6.5m occupancy. Wages -USD120bn -USD180bn -USD240bn -USD300bn * Total jobs including supply chain Source: Oxford Economics Table 4: US Hotel Industry Outlook Particulars 2020 2021 …as industry outlook remains bleak… Supply ↓ 14.9% ↑ 15.6% Demand ↓ 51.2% ↑ 81.8% • In anticipation of the continuation of the virus spread, Occupancy ↓ 42.6% ↑ 57.3% forward-operating metrics of hotels have also collapsed. The ADR ↓ 13.9% ↑ 3.7% US hotel industry’s RevPAR is projected to decline by more RevPAR ↓ 50.6% ↑ 63.1% than 50%. Updated Occupancy 37.90% 59.70% Updated ADR (Average Daily Rate) $112.91 $117.05 Updated RevPAR $42.84 $69.86 US hotel industry revised year-over-year projections including the Covid-19 effect. Source: STR 6 © Evalueserve. All rights reserved. Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Chart 4: Google search trend for “Hotel” worldwide 100 Global Financial The Google Search trend shows that the Crisis 2008-2009 Covid-19 number of times the word ”hotel” was 80 Outbreak searched has reduced drastically and was 60 at an all-time low in the past 15 years, 40 including the global financial crisis period. 20 This shows that people are very 0 apprehensive about booking hotels in the Apr-07 Oct-11 Apr-16 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 near future. Apr-04 Worldwide Source: Google Trends Chart 5: Net Sentiment Index in Hospitality sector The net sentiment index shows a sharp downward trend in the overall travel 80 66 sentiment. 64 62 64 62 60 53 47 45 43 *Google Trends is a search trends feature that shows how 40 frequently a given search term is entered into Google's search 25 24 engine relative to the site's total search volume over a given 19 16 period of time. The numbers represent the search interest relative 20 10 13 to the highest point on the chart for the selected region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity of the term, whilst a value of 0 50 means that the term is half as popular. *Net Sentiment Index measures the polarity of web social conversations (positive and negative) in relation to the sector. Worldwide Source: Travelsat 7 © Evalueserve. All rights reserved. Industry at China’s Management Introduction Impact Stimulus Rating Action Recent News a Glance Recovery Commentary Macroeconomic Qualitative Quantitative Labor Force and Unemployment: According to Spending Priority: Global spending pattern is set Decline in tourist arrivals: UNWTO projects 2020 current estimates, the number of job losses at the to experience a shift in spending, with lower global tourist arrivals could decline 20%-30%, end of 2020 due to coronavirus is 25m, and this spending on travel and leisure. [4] compared to an estimated 3-4% growth forecast in number is likely to increase. Majority of these Hotel business downturn: Decline in tourist January 2020. [6] workers will be in the hardest hit sectors, including arrivals, MICE activities and lower corporate travel Occupancy decline: Hotel Occupancy has accommodation and lodging [1] will hit overall occupancies. The fall in occupancies deteriorated globally. Italy is the worst-affected Global Uncertainty: The World Pandemics will push operating costs, thereby eroding margins. country, witnessing a 93% decline during the week Uncertainty Index, developed by the IMF, is at a The sector faces almost full closure in some of 9-15 March, compared to the same period last record high due to COVID-19, beating the countries. year. [7] uncertainty around other pandemics in the past. [2] Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence is Layoffs: Accommodation and food services Manufacturing Activity: Global PMI activity is abysmally low due to fear of traveling, and this is accounts for 144m jobs globally and is severely hit deteriorating across, with the global PMI less than likely to continue even after the spread is contained.
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