Eur. J. Entomol. 111(3): 407–415, 2014 doi: 10.14411/eje.2014.042 ISSN 1210-5759 (print), 1802-8829 (online) Recorded and potential distributions on the Iberian Peninsula of species of Lepidoptera listed in the Habitats Directive HELENA ROMO 1, EDGAR CAMERO-R.2, ENRIQUE GARCÍA-BARROS 1, MIGUEL L. MUNGUIRA1 and JOSÉ MARTÍN CANO 1 1 Departamento de Biología, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain; e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] 2 Departamento de Biología, Universidad Nacional de Colombia; e-mail: [email protected] Key words. Lepidoptera, Papilionoidea, Bombycoidea, Habitats Directive, ENFA, potential distribution, Iberian Peninsula Abstract. Using data on the known Iberian distributions of 10 species of Lepidoptera listed in the Habitats Directive referenced to the 10 × 10 km UTM grid, we determined their potential distributions and their relationships with selected bioclimatic factors associated with mean temperature and precipitation using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). Scores for Specialization and Marginal- ity were determined in order to evaluate the relationships between the predictions of the model and climatic factors. The number of squares on the Iberian Peninsula in which the species are recorded and those squares predicted to be favourable for these species were determined if they matched the network of Protected Natural Areas. This suggested that a further eight 10 × 10 km squares should be included in Protected Natural Areas. The results also indicate that climate determines the distributions of most of the species. Although overall there is a close association between the observed and predicted distributions, the less thoroughly documented geographic ranges (i.e. those of the moth species) depart from this pattern. INTRODUCTION tion planning), although decisions about conservation are The Habitats Directive (HD, also known as Council Di- currently mainly based on subjective criteria, such as per- rective 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats sonal experiences or expert judgment (Cook et al., 2010). and of wild fauna and flora) is one of the most important Few applied conservation practices are based on results of tools for the conservation of biodiversity in the European using systematic conservation planning, despite the objec- Union, which aims to preserve biodiversity by the conser- tiveness of this method (Cowling et al., 2003). There are vation of natural habitats of fauna and flora. The designa- studies on the problems of modelling, such as the lack of tion of these habitats is strongly influenced by the biology certainty (Addison et al., 2013). A good approach would and the distribution of the Species of Community Interest be to combine the objective results of models with expert and Priority Species, both listed in Annex II of the HD. knowledge, which is always to some extent subjective. These species receive special attention and the data on The number of models available is overwhelming and the their geographic distributions are being currently updated. predictions vary depending on the model selected. Thus, The Annexes of the Habitats Directive include several or- it is essential that there is a good quality and refined da- ders of European animals and plants. Here we focus on tabase on the presence of the species, that environmental Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) within a specific ter- characteristics are predictable and the most suitable model ritory, that of the Iberian Peninsula. Ten species of Iberian is used (Lobo, 2008). Models do not have to be complex Lepidoptera are included in Annexes II, IV and V of the to be reliable. In fact, simple models with a few explana- Habitats Directive and one of them is an Iberian endemic tory variables (between one and three) are more robust and species: Polyommatus golgus (Hübner, 1813). generally preferred by experts (Van Couwenberghe et al., Lepidoptera are characterized by a huge diversity 2013). The available modelling methods include regres- in terms of described species (more than 150,000 spe- sion, machine learning or maximum entropy, among others cies within 128 families: van Nieukerken et al., 2011). (Elith et al., 2006; Elith & Leathwick, 2009; Tarkesh & Although the chorology of the butterflies (superfamily Jetschke, 2012). We used Ecological Niche Factor Anal- Papilionoidea) on the Iberian Peninsula is reasonably well ysis, which is based on presence-only and compares the studied (Romo et al., 2006), there is evidence that relevant environmental values of the squares where the species has areas remain insufficiently sampled (Romo & García-Bar- been recorded with those of the area studied (Hirzel et al., ros, 2005) and for the faunistics of non-papilionoid Lepi- 2002). In this way, the most relevant variables are selected doptera (moths in a wide sense) it is even worse. Given the for the species and some uncorrelated factors that define present low investment in this kind of research, alternative Marginality (the distance between the optimal climatic techniques, such as distribution modelling, may be crucial conditions for the species and the average climatic con- tools for conservation purposes. Predictive models are now ditions in the area studied) and Specialization (describing widely used in conservation biology (systematic conserva- how specialized the species is based on the ratio between 407 climatic variability in the study area and that of in the area Lycaenidae); Eriogaster catax (Linnaeus, 1758) (family Lasio- where the species occurs) determined. This method has a campidae); Actias isabellae (Graells, 1849) (family Saturniidae); solid conceptual basis (Calenge & Basille, 2008) and has and Proserpinus proserpina (Pallas, 1772) (family Sphingidae). been successfully used in many other studies (Lobo et al., Three further species included in the annexes and recorded in the past from the study area were discarded: the Nymphalid Coe­ 2010; Chefaoui et al., 2011). nonympha oedippus (Fabricius, 1787), Erebid Euplagia quadri­ The existence of many species of Lepidoptera is under punctaria (Poda 1761) and Lycaenid Lycaena helle (Denis & threat. The ranges of several species have contracted over Schiffermüiller, 1775). C. oedippus does not occur on the Iberian the last few decades due to human activities, including cli- Peninsula as far as we know as previous records are misidenti- mate change (Warren et al., 2001; Hill et al., 2002; Thomas fications (Fernández, 1991; Vives Moreno, 1994; García-Barros et al., 2004; Stefanescu et al., 2011). In order to mitigate et al., 2013). E. quadripunctaria is found abundantly throughout the effects of human pressure, a number of protected ar- the Iberian Peninsula (Ylla et al., 2010) and the subspecies that eas were created in Spain and Portugal (Protected Natural is protected is endemic to the island of Rhodes (Greece): Eupla­ Areas, PNA). In these areas priority is given to the main- gia quadripunctaria rhodesensis (Legakis, 1996). L. helle was recorded from just two 10 × 10 km UTM squares more than 25 tenance or restoration of a favourable conservation status years ago and therefore it seems necessary to confirm its occur- for the habitats and species on the Iberian Peninsula. For rence in the study area (García-Barros et al., 2013). some groups such as vertebrates (Rey Benayas & de la The data on distributions came from several databases of pres- Montaña, 2003) the PNA does not include all the species ences (García-Barros et al., 2004) updated to 2010 and from a or areas of high diversity value. On the other hand, most specific database created for the project on updating Habitats Di- species of Iberian butterflies occur within the PNA (Romo rective species distributions (VV.AA., 2010). In total they pro- et al., 2007). As the PNA are probably not equally adequate vided 4,687 distribution records. for all the animal groups, it is worth exploring their suit- Climatic variables ability for well known priority butterfly and moth species We used 19 of the bioclimatic variables (BIOCLIM, Table 1) in the Iberian Peninsula, which has not been done yet. Of in Worldclim database (http://www.worldclim.org/bioclim) that the species of moths listed in the DH only Actias isabel­ represent gradients in mean temperature and precipitation, both lae (Graells, 1849) has previously been analyzed from a seasonal or annual, or limiting climatic factors (Hijmans et al., biogeographic point of view in the study area (Chefaoui & 2005). These variables are the result of the collection of monthly Lobo, 2007). measures of different variables related to temperature and pre- For the reasons discussed above (the broad knowledge cipitation, recorded at a large number of meteorological stations spread around the world, between the years 1950 and 2000. The of their present distributions, unequal sampling effort, resolution of five arc-minutes was adopted since it is the most gradual reduction in their ranges), Lepidoptera are good similar to that of our species presence data (squares of 10 × 10 candidates for species distribution modelling (Fleishman et km). al., 2001; Scheingross, 2007; Newbold et al., 2009). There- Since our data consist of presences and several of the variables fore, it seems appropriate to model the distribution of the involved may be highly correlated with one another, the most species of Lepidoptera listed in the Habitats Directive and relevant variables were chosen by using Ecological Niche Fac- identify potential areas with suitable habitats for the prior- tor Analysis (ENFA) (Hirzel et al., 2002) implemented in Bio- ity species included in the Directive. mapper v. 4.0 (Hirzel et al., 2005). We consider the ecological The aims of this work, therefore, consisted in (1) model- niche (Hutchinson, 1957) as the subset of squares in the study area where the species have a reasonable probability of occur- ling the distributions of species of Lepidoptera included in rence. This multivariate niche can be quantified in terms of both the Habitats Directive, (2) predicting possible new areas Marginality and Specialization index.