Greater Downtown Miami Annual Residential Market Study Prepared for the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) by Integra Realty Resources (IRR) April 2018 Greater Downtown Miami Annual Residential Market Study Prepared for the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) by Integra Realty Resources (IRR) April 2018 For more information, please contact IRR-Miami/Palm Beach The Dadeland Centre 9155 S Dadeland Blvd, Suite 1208 Miami, FL 33156 305-670-0001 [email protected] Contents 2 Introduction 5 Greater Downtown Miami Market Submarket Map 6 Greater Downtown Miami Condo Pipeline 7 What changed? Q2-Q4 8 Greater Downtown Miami Market Sizing 10 Greater Downtown Miami Market Condo Delivery and Absorption of Units 15 Analysis of Condominium Resale 17 Currency Exchange and Purchasing Patterns 18 Current Cycle Completions 19 Major Market Comparison 20 Condominium Rental Activity 24 Conventional Rental Market Supply 28 Land Prices Trends 29 Conclusions 30 Condo Development Process Appendix Introduction Integra Realty Resources – Miami | Palm Beach (IRR-Miami) is pleased to present the following Residential Real Estate Market Study within the Miami Downtown Development Authority’s (Miami DDA) market area, defined as the Greater Downtown Miami market. This report updates IRR-Miami’s findings on the local residential real estate market through January 2018. Key findings are as follows: • The downtown Miami residential market has been expanding rapidly since 2012. This coming year will mark the high point of the residential expansion, with close to 2,800 condominium units and nearly 4,000 conventional Class A rental units delivering in 2018. Millicento • Higher levels of resale condo inventory and slower absorption on resales resulted in the second consecutive decline in condo resale pricing. This is coupled with declines in condominium rental pricing for the first year since 2010-2011, reflective of both higher turn-over in the condominium rental sector, and increasing competition from new conventional rental projects entering the market. • The effects of Hurricane Irma are still being felt as deal-flow and momentum were disrupted at the close of Q3-2017. This disrupted both traffic and sales on new projects, and construction timing due to supply chain and labor issues. Remarkably, the market continued to move, albeit more slowly. With good fortune, the physical damage was fairly limited, owing to a combination of luck and forward planning for storm resiliency. • The recently delivered conventional inventory is demonstrating strong occupancy (90%-95%) while older Class A-/B+ rental occupancies are slightly higher (96%-100%). While condominium rental rates declined for the first time in years (-4%), this change was surprisingly muted considering the number of conventional rental units that entered the market in 2017. • IRR presents a new snapshot of unit mix and sizes, with studio units at 10%-14% of total unit mix; 1 Bedrooms 45%- 55%; 2 Bedrooms 33% - 43%; and 3 Bedrooms < 10% of total project mix. The unit mix varies slightly by submarket, with smaller average unit sizes in Brickell overall. 2 | Integra Realty Resources Introduction • Foreign exchange rates improved on 2017, recovering on both stronger international productivity and a weakening dollar. This has yet to set-off an international condo buying frenzy like we experienced in 2013-2014, but it is an encouraging sign following three sustained years of foreign currency erosion which adversely affected sales. Foreign buyers took advantage of the over-supplied market during 2010-2012, and may see good buying opportunities again in 2018-2019 as resale pricing retreats back towards replacement cost. • The downtown condominium market is becoming more highly differentiated on price and product, and is showing strong demand for higher end product. Well capitalized developers starting recent projects are targeting luxury and ultra-luxury buyers at price points rarely experienced in downtown. This differentiation is good for the market since the higher-end $1 - $2 Million product will not likely enter the shadow rental pool. • Downtown Miami has emerged as a top-tier location relative to other markets within Miami-Dade county, well below the pricing on Miami Beach which includes oceanfront product averages, but on par/slightly superior to Aventura and Coral Gables on pricing. The declines in pricing experienced downtown were similar to county-wide market movements and were not unique to downtown. • The past year marked a high point in downtown land transactions not seen since 2014, with a total of 15 major transactions. The majority of these sites were reportedly slated for rental or hotel development with few buyers identifying their intent for condo development. Notably, of the last 10 major land transactions in downtown, 40% were backed by foreign buyers from Israel, China, Columbia, and the Netherlands • Integra’s overall report card for the downtown market is mixed, but encouraging. The bulk of the remaining deliveries will occur in the coming 12-18 months. This hurts the supply-side grading, although this is a positive trend for buyers. Despite stockmarket volatility in early 2018, local and national economic indicators remain positive, with wage growth likely accelerating into a tighter labor market. This favors continued strong rental demand. Developers and investors have activated the land market, but construction costs and supply must moderate before new major project announcements are likely. 3 | Integra Realty Resources Introduction • The rumors of the death of the Miami residential market proved once again greatly exaggerated in 2017. Lack of lender distress, strong development sponsors, and heavy institutional equity behind the rental developments all kept the market moving despite sluggish foreign demand. The coming twelve months will represent another inflection point where buyers (both foreign and domestic) can and should capitalize on the markets’ supply-side concerns. • Provided continued strength in the US debt and equity markets in the coming year, the next round of project planning is about to commence, with developers planning for 2021-2022 market deliveries. Respectfully, Integra Realty Resources (IRR) – Miami/Palm Beach Anthony M. Graziano, MAI, CRE, FRICS Senior Managing Director Dan Bowen Market Research Analyst 4 | Integra Realty Resources Greater Downtown Miami Market Submarket Map The map opposite illustrates the boundaries of the Miami DDA, as well as each submarket within the Miami DDA market. 5 | Integra Realty Resources Greater Downtown Miami Condo Pipeline he following chart summarizes IRR Miami’s update of the current condo activity within the entire TGreater Downtown Miami Market area, including the number of units, submarket location, and phase of development. The chart illustrates the different stages of the condo development process, including Proposed, Reservations, Contracts, Under Construction and Completed as identified in our prior annual report. These classifications are significant because they provide a framework for how projects move through the development cycle. Figure 1 Current Greater Downtown Miami Condo Pipeline Submarket Complete Under Construction Contracts Reservations Proposed Totals A&E 0 596 0 0 2,291 2,887 Brickell 4,489 999 520 0 5,287 11,295 CBD 352 902 0 0 5,406 6,660 Edgewater 1,050 2,505 0 344 1,389 5,288 Midtown 410 0 0 0 195 605 Wynwood 11 0 0 0 448 459 Total (2017 Q4) 6,312 5,002 520 344 15,016 27,194 Total (2017 Midyear) 5,180 5,078 1,225 505 14,381 26,369 6 | Integra Realty Resources What changed? Q2-Q4 s outlined within IRR’s mid-year 2017 report, the 2017-2018 condo deliveries were going to clear Amuch of the product pipeline. By the end of 2017, over 1,132 additional units delivered in the second half of the year, 722 were in Brickell including: 1010 Brickell (+387 units), Echo Brickell (+180), Brickell Ten (+155) and Hyde (+410) in Midtown. For the first time since IRR started tracking the downtown pipeline, the number of projects actively selling through reservations has gone to zero with the exception of one condo hotel project (Bentley Edgewater). All active sales offices now are going straight to contracts. Active market participants report that well-capitalized developers may move forward on some of the Brickell House contracted projects without the typical 50%-60% pre-contract ratio, signaling strength and confidence by this new wave of developers with strong equity. It’s a fine line between confidence and over-confidence, and developers so far have shown restraint as key indicators have slowed. Groundbreakings were announced for Aston Martin (+390), Missoni Baia (+249), Elysee (+100), and Gran Paraiso (+317). Smart Brickell (+170) and One Riverpoint (+350) are now taking contracts, while the construction pipeline in Brickell is now at its lowest level in over a decade, with fewer than 1,000 units under construction. Midtown and Wynwood have no active new projects in the development or contract pipeline. There has been little meaningful construction since the announced ground-breaking of Spark in Edgewater, but it remains in the under-construction category as of this report. Wyn 26 has been canceled after the developer reportedly failed to secure financing. The current cycle has officially passed the mid-point on deliveries, with over 6,300 units delivered, and approximately 5,000 units under construction, with another 850+/- potentially commencing construction. Approximately 60% of the projects under construction will deliver in 2018, with the balance of the under construction pipeline delivering in 2019 through early 2020. 7 | Integra Realty Resources What changed? Q2-Q4 The balance of deliveries in 2018 will mark the high-point of all downtown deliveries since the commencement of the market recovery in 2012. By 2019, fewer than 1,200 new units will be finalizing delivery. Based on the current contract pipeline, there will be little competition for new downtown projects by 2020. Despite speculation in the media over the past 24 months that the downtown market was being overbuilt, continued strength in the U.S.